• International conference on construction engineering and project management
• /
• 2013.01a
• /
• pp.602-607
• /
• 2013

Financial risks associated with capital investments are often measured with different feasibility indicators such as the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR). This paper aims at demonstrating practical applications of probabilistic feasibility analysis techniques for an integrated feasibility evaluation of the IRR and PBP. The IRR and PBP are concurrently analyzed in order to measure the profitability and liquidity, respectively, of a cash flow. The cash flow data of a real wind turbine project is used in the study. The presented approach consists of two phases. First, two newly reported analysis techniques are used to carry out a series of what-if analyses for the IRR and PBP. Second, the relationship between the IRR and PBP is identified using Monte Carlo simulation. The results demonstrate that the integrated feasibility evaluation of stochastic cash flows becomes a more viable option with the aide of newly developed probabilistic analysis techniques. It is also shown that the relationship between the IRR and PBP for the wind turbine project can be used as a predictive model for the actual IRR at the end of the service life based on the actual PBP of the project early in the service life.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.19-32
• /
• 2016

Due to the increasing fiscal burden and structural unbalanced premium/benefit costs, the new reform on the government employees pension system (GEPS) was considered even after the recent reform in 2009. This article examines the various effects of recent amendment in 2015 on GEPS using a simple probabilistic model. We consider effects on both sides, the pensioners and the government. First of all, the expected net value of pension payment for an individual employee was calculated based on the supposed survival distribution. The fairness of individual pension holders was compared using the benefit-cost ratio. Secondly, from pension system users' point of view, the default probability and the government subsidy were examined by Monte-carlo simulation. From the simulation experiment, we could see that the 2015 reform plan indeed reduces the default probability and the size of the fiscal burden of government by increasing the premium and decreasing the benefit. However, the size of the effect is not very standout at this moment because the number of new employees who are fully subject to the reform will be much smaller than the number of previous employees for a while. Thus, the effect of the reform is expected to appear in a slow manner.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.165-172
• /
• 2015

The appropriateness of railway route design is generally evaluated by the future value corresponding to the travel demand or benefit-cost analysis. These methods may have the limitation for the reasons that all the design alternatives cannot be considered, and the differentiation between the alternatives may not be significant because the alternatives are based on the strict basic scheme such as the design criteria. In addition, the cost varies by the design elements. In this study, all the design alternatives are considered with the automatized tool and the design criteria, and evaluated with the multi-criterion decision making method. The weight for each design element with the analytic hierarchical process may be helpful to derive more efficient railway alignment.

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.24 no.3
• /
• pp.283-290
• /
• 2014

Background: This study aimed to examine the relationship between home-visit nursing services and health care utilization under the public long-term care insurance program in Korea. Methods: We analyzed the long-term care need assessment database and the long-term care and the health insurance claim databases of National Health Insurance Service between July 2011 and June 2012. The sample includes a total of 20,065 home-visit nursing recommended-older beneficiaries who use home-visit nursing and/or home-visit care, based on a standard benefit model developed by the Health Insurance Policy Institute of National Health Insurance Service. The beneficiaries were categorized into home-visit nursing use and non-use groups, and the home-visit nursing use group was again divided into high-use and low-use groups home-visit nursing, based on their total annual home-visit nursing expenditure. Two-part models and negative-binomial regression models were used for the statistical analysis. Results: The home-visit nursing use was negatively associated with the number of outpatient visit and cost, while adjusting for all covariates. The home-visit nursing use was also negatively associated with the inpatient cost among the high home-visit nursing use group. Conclusion: The findings implies home-visit nursing use prevents health care utilization. Further studies and policy strategies that can promote and strengthen home-visit nursing services under the public long-term care insurance are necessary in Korea.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
• /
• v.27 no.4
• /
• pp.855-861
• /
• 2017

Gordon & Loeb[1] suggested that the optimal level of investment decision of an enterprise is the point that the marginal benefit(MB) of information security investment is equal to the marginal cost(MC). However, many companies suffering from information security incidents are not aware of the fact that they are experiencing information security accidents and can not measure how much they are affected. In this paper, I propose a model of information security investment decision making under the incomplete information situation by modifying the Gordon & Loeb[1] model and compare the differences in investment level. Under the incomplete information situation the expected return from the information security investment tends to be lower than that of actual information security investment, and the level of investment is also less. This shows that if a third party such as the government gives accurate information such as the rate of incidents of information security accidents and the amount of damages, companies can expand their investment in information security.

• Informatization Policy
• /
• v.27 no.2
• /
• pp.40-65
• /
• 2020

The purpose of this study is to prevent enactment of regulations on the basis of fragmented claims by stakeholders about e-government business regulations, and to rather decide whether to introduce regulation by quantitative methods based on cost-benefit analysis. To this end, a quantitative regulatory analysis model is to be prepared based on the policy objectives to be pursued when preparing e-government regulations. First, for regulating e-government business, the policy objectives to be pursued were derived large and small categories by applying the Delphi technique. The importance of each policy objective item was then set by applying the AHP technique. Also, based on this analysis model, the appropriateness of the existing e-government regulations was analyzed. As a result of the analysis, many of the regulations partly met the objectives discussed at the time of enactment, but negative effects were also observed in terms of overall efficiency and consumer benefits.

• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.15 no.2
• /
• pp.317-344
• /
• 2013

This study wished to construct and propose correct Korea-USA FTA business model in Food Industry for FTA practical use maximization. First, the application item of Wholly Obtained Criterion may have to construct Wholly Obtained Criterion FTA practical use strategy. This strategy is to export to FTA country concerned after process domestically made main material. Second, the application item of Change in Tariff Heading may have to construct Change in Tariff Heading FTA practical use strategy. This strategy exports to FTA country concerned after that process that receives tariff cut(Cost reduction) benefit, and satisfies Change in Tariff Heading importing main material from third country (The FTA conclusion country).

• Health Policy and Management
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.451-465
• /
• 2012

In order to strengthen assurance of National Health Insurance, co-payment should be reduced. This can happen with collaborative efforts of patients, medical institutes, and government altogether at the same time. This research applied Dutton(1986)'s medical service research model with high R-square, and analyzed 2008 Korea Health Panel Data (Beta Version 1), that was examined by Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs and National Health Insurance, in order to figure out influential variables on co-payment. In result of Multiple Linear Regression Analysis, R-square was 46.7%, the older the age, the patients who had surgery, the longer days of hospital treatment are, the higher gross income of a household is, the more hospitalized in upper grade general hospitals, and the more upper grade rooms and selecting a doctor are used. The results have statistical significance. When conducting research applying medical service research model, there is a need to apply Dutton(1986)'s medical service research model with high R-square. In order to strengthen assurance of National Health Insurance, first conditions should be that patients are hospitalized in upper grade general hospital, and at the same time, are patients who had surgery with long stay of hospitalization. In addition, if proven that patients used upper grade rooms and selecting a doctor due to lack of regular treatment and rooms, for certain number of days of such hospitalization, it is suggested to be provided with health care insurance in upper grade rooms and selecting a doctor in calculating co-payment limit.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
• /
• 2003.10c
• /
• pp.236-246
• /
• 2003

This paper is implemented a control algorithm in order to be stable and minimized to entire train traffic system at delayed case. Signal ing system is described wi th algebraic equations given for train headway, Discrete-event simulation principles are reviewed and a demonstration block signaling model using the technique is implemented. Train congestion at station entrance for short headway operation is demonstrated and the propagation of delays along a platform of trains from any imposed delay to the leading train is also shown. A rail way signaling system is by nature a distributed operation with event triggered at discrete intervals. Although the train kinematic variables of position, velocity, and acceleration are continually changing, the changes are triggered when the trains pass over section boundaries and arrive at signals and route switches. This paper deals with linear-mode1ing, stability and optimal control for the traffic on such metro line of the model is reconstructed in order to adapt the circuits. This paper propose optimal control laws wi th state feedback ensuring the stability of the modeled system for circuits. Simulation results show the benefit to be expected from an efficient traffic control. The main results are summarized as follows: 1. In this paper we develop a linear model describing the traffic for both loop lines, two state space equations have been analyzed. The first one is adapted to the situation where a complete nominal time schedule is available while second one is adapted when only the nominal time interval between trains is known, in both cases we show the unstability of the traffic when the proceeding train is delayed following properties, - They are easily implemented at law cost on existing lines. - They ensure the exponetial stability of loop system. 2. These control laws have been tested on a traffic simulation software taking into the non-linearites and the physical constraints on a metro line. By means of simulation, the efficiency of the proposed optimal control laws are shown.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
• /
• v.20 no.6
• /
• pp.537-543
• /
• 2020

The window cleaning works are manpower-dependent and are performed in an unstable posture at high altitude, so that there is a risk of falling. Therefore, there is an urgent need to improve the safety of workers. In this study, a conceptual design was proposed for the cleaning of exterior windows of a building, and the economic feasibility of the proposed conceptual model was analyzed. The proposed model is designed to avoid protrusions such as window frames, and to be able to respond even if the shapes of the upper and lower parts are different. As a result of analyzing the economic feasibility of the designed conceptual model, the benefit cost ratio was 4.48, which was significantly higher than 1. Therefore, the economic feasibility of the proposed window cleaning device is expected to be sufficient. The results analyzed in this paper will be used in the development and marketing of the window cleaning device.