• Computers and Concrete
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• v.13 no.5
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• pp.659-677
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• 2014

A Bayesian response surface updating procedure is applied in order to update the parameters of the covariance function of a random field for concrete properties based on a limited number of available measurements. Formulas as well as a numerical algorithm are presented in order to update the parameters of response surfaces using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. The parameters of the covariance function are often based on some kind of expert judgment due the lack of sufficient measurement data. However, a Bayesian updating technique enables to estimate the parameters of the covariance function more rigorously and with less ambiguity. Prior information can be incorporated in the form of vague or informative priors. The proposed estimation procedure is evaluated through numerical simulations and compared to the commonly used least square method.

• IE interfaces
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.119-127
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• 2011

Most companies have been increasing temporary work projects to maximize the usage of their resources. They also have been developing the effective techniques for analyzing and managing the state of the projects. In order to monitor the state of a project in real-time and predict the project's future state more accurately, this paper suggests the Bayesian Network (BN) as a tool for discovering the causes of project risk and presenting the failure probability of the project. The proposed BN modeling method with consideration of the Earned Value Management (EVM) method shows how to induce the predictive and conditional probability of the risk occurrence in the future. The advantages of the suggested model are (1) that the cause of a project risk can be easily figured out via the BN, (2) that the future value of the project can be sufficiently increased by updating relevant components of the project, and (3) that more credible prediction can be made in the similar and future situation by using the data obtained in current analysis. A numerical example is also given.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.335-342
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• 2016

When dynamics changes occurred in an existing Bayesian Network (BN), the related parameters embedding on the BN have to be updated to new parameters adapting to changed patterns. In this case, these parameters have to be updated with the consideration of the causalities in the BN. This research suggests a framework for updating parameters dynamically using Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and Harmony Search (HS) algorithm among several Meta-Heuristics techniques. While EM is an effective algorithm for estimating hidden parameters, it has a limitation that the generated solution converges a local optimum in usual. In order to overcome the limitation, this paper applies HS for tracking the global optimum values of Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) of parameters. The proposed method suggests a learning and propagation framework of BN with dynamic changes for overcoming disadvantages of EM algorithm and converging a global optimum value of MLE of parameters.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.77-93
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• 2015

The idea of using measured dynamic characteristics for damage detection is attractive because it allows for a global evaluation of the structural health and condition. However, vibration-based damage detection for complex structures such as long-span cable-supported bridges still remains a challenge. As a suspension or cable-stayed bridge involves in general thousands of structural components, the conventional damage detection methods based on model updating and/or parameter identification might result in ill-conditioning and non-uniqueness in the solution of inverse problems. Alternatively, methods that utilize, to the utmost extent, information from forward problems and avoid direct solution to inverse problems would be more suitable for vibration-based damage detection of long-span cable-supported bridges. The auto-associative neural network (ANN) technique and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) technique, that both eschew inverse problems, have been proposed for identifying and locating damage in suspension and cable-stayed bridges. Without the help of a structural model, ANNs with appropriate configuration can be trained using only the measured modal frequencies from healthy structure under varying environmental conditions, and a new set of modal frequency data acquired from an unknown state of the structure is then fed into the trained ANNs for damage presence identification. With the help of a structural model, PNNs can be configured using the relative changes of modal frequencies before and after damage by assuming damage at different locations, and then the measured modal frequencies from the structure can be presented to locate the damage. However, such formulated ANNs and PNNs may still be incompetent to identify damage occurring at the deck members of a cable-supported bridge because of very low modal sensitivity to the damage. The present study endeavors to enhance the damage identification capability of ANNs and PNNs when being applied for identification of damage incurred at deck members. Effort is first made to construct combined modal parameters which are synthesized from measured modal frequencies and modal shape components to train ANNs for damage alarming. With the purpose of improving identification accuracy, effort is then made to configure PNNs for damage localization by adapting the smoothing parameter in the Bayesian classifier to different values for different pattern classes. The performance of the ANNs with their input being modal frequencies and the combined modal parameters respectively and the PNNs with constant and adaptive smoothing parameters respectively is evaluated through simulation studies of identifying damage inflicted on different deck members of the double-deck suspension Tsing Ma Bridge.