• 제목/요약/키워드: Bayesian modeling

검색결과 234건 처리시간 0.025초

베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 자동 화재 감지 시스템 (Automatic fire detection system using Bayesian Networks)

  • 정광호;고병철;남재열
    • 정보처리학회논문지B
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    • 제15B권2호
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2008
  • 본 논문에서는 실시간 화재 감지를 위해 비전 기반의 새로운 화재 감지 기법을 제안한다. 기존의 비전기반 화재감지 기법에서는 컬러정보와 픽셀들의 시간적인 변화량 검출을 위해 다수의 휴리스틱한 특징들을 적용함으로써 실험결과가 환경의 변화에 민감한 문제들이 존재했다. 또한 정확한 화재감지를 위해서 많은 연산을 수행함으로써 감지시간 길어지는 단점이 있었다. 이러한 문제점들을 극복하기 위해서 본 논문에서는 시간축 상에서 불규칙하게 변화하는 화재의 특성을 분석하고 이를 토대로 확률 모델을 구성하여 이를 베이지안 네트워크(Bayesian network)에 적용하는 새로운 방법을 제안한다. 우선, 배경 모델링과 컬러 모델을 적용하여 화재 후보 영역을 검출하고, 이 후보 영역에서 명암도에 평준화된 Red 색상의 왜도(skewness)와 웨이블릿 변환을 통하여 얻어진 3가지 고주파 성분의 왜도를 노드로 갖는 베이지안 네트워크를 구성하여 최종 화재를 감별한다. 실생활 환경에서 촬영된 화재 영상에 대한 실험 결과는 빠른 검출 속도와 우수한 화재 검출 성능을 보여주고 있다.

베이지안넷 기반의 프로젝트 일정리스크 평가 (Project Schedule Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Nets)

  • 성홍석;박철순
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2016
  • The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

상황에 민감한 베이지안 분류기를 이용한 얼굴 표정 기반의 감정 인식 (Emotion Recognition Based on Facial Expression by using Context-Sensitive Bayesian Classifier)

  • 김진옥
    • 정보처리학회논문지B
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    • 제13B권7호
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    • pp.653-662
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    • 2006
  • 사용자의 상황에 따라 적절한 서비스를 제공하는 컴퓨팅 환경을 구현하려는 유비쿼터스 컴퓨팅에서 사람과 기계간의 효과적인 상호작용과 사용자의 상황 인식을 위해 사용자의 얼굴 표정 기반의 감정 인식이 HCI의 중요한 수단으로 이용되고 있다. 본 연구는 새로운 베이지안 분류기를 이용하여 상황에 민감한 얼굴 표정에서 기본 감정을 강건하게 인식하는 문제를 다룬다. 표정에 기반한 감정 인식은 두 단계로 나뉘는데 본 연구에서는 얼굴 특징 추출 단계는 색상 히스토그램 방법을 기반으로 하고 표정을 이용한 감정 분류 단계에서는 학습과 테스트를 효과적으로 실행하는 새로운 베이지안 학습 알고리즘인 EADF(Extended Assumed-Density Filtering)을 이용한다. 상황에 민감한 베이지안 학습 알고리즘은 사용자 상황이 달라지면 복잡도가 다른 분류기를 적용할 수 있어 더 정확한 감정 인식이 가능하도록 제안되었다. 실험 결과는 표정 분류 정확도가 91% 이상이며 상황이 드러나지 않게 얼굴 표정 데이터를 모델링한 결과 10.8%의 실험 오류율을 보였다.

폴랴-감마 잠재변수에 기반한 베이지안 영과잉 음이항 회귀모형: 약학 자료에의 응용 (A Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model based on Pólya-Gamma latent variables with an application to pharmaceutical data)

  • 서기태;황범석
    • 응용통계연구
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    • 제35권2호
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    • pp.311-325
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    • 2022
  • 0의 값을 과도하게 포함하는 가산자료는 다양한 연구 분야에서 흔히 나타난다. 영과잉 모형은 영과잉 가산자료를 분석하기 위해 가장 일반적으로 사용되는 모형이다. 영과잉 모형에 대한 전통적인 베이지안 추론은 조건부 사후분포의 형태가 폐쇄형 분포로 나타나지 않아 모형 적합 과정이 용이하지 않다는 한계점이 존재했다. 그러나 최근 Pillow와 Scott (2012)과 Polson 등 (2013)이 제안한 폴랴-감마 자료확대전략으로 인해, 로지스틱 회귀모형과 음이항 회귀모형에서 깁스 샘플링을 통한 추론이 가능해지면서, 영과잉 모형에 대한 베이지안 추론이 용이해졌다. 본 논문에서는 베이지안 추론에 기반한 영과잉 음이항 회귀모형을 Min과 Agresti(2005)에서 분석된 약학 연구 자료에 적용해본다. 분석에 사용된 자료는 경시적 영과잉 가산자료로 복잡한 자료 구조를 가지고 있다. 모형 적합 과정에서는 깁스 샘플링을 통한 추론을 수행하기 위해 폴랴-감마 자료확대전략을 사용한다.

Identification of acrosswind load effects on tall slender structures

  • Jae-Seung Hwang;Dae-Kun Kwon;Jungtae Noh;Ahsan Kareem
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제36권4호
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    • pp.221-236
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    • 2023
  • The lateral component of turbulence and the vortices shed in the wake of a structure result in introducing dynamic wind load in the acrosswind direction and the resulting level of motion is typically larger than the corresponding alongwind motion for a dynamically sensitive structure. The underlying source mechanisms of the acrosswind load may be classified into motion-induced, buffeting, and Strouhal components. This study proposes a frequency domain framework to decompose the overall load into these components based on output-only measurements from wind tunnel experiments or full-scale measurements. First, the total acrosswind load is identified based on measured acceleration response by solving the inverse problem using the Kalman filter technique. The decomposition of the combined load is then performed by modeling each load component in terms of a Bayesian filtering scheme. More specifically, the decomposition and the estimation of the model parameters are accomplished using the unscented Kalman filter in the frequency domain. An aeroelastic wind tunnel experiment involving a tall circular cylinder was carried out for the validation of the proposed framework. The contribution of each load component to the acrosswind response is assessed by re-analyzing the system with the decomposed components. Through comparison of the measured and the re-analyzed response, it is demonstrated that the proposed framework effectively decomposes the total acrosswind load into components and sheds light on the overall underlying mechanism of the acrosswind load and attendant structural response. The delineation of these load components and their subsequent modeling and control may become increasingly important as tall slender buildings of the prismatic cross-section that are highly sensitive to the acrosswind load effects are increasingly being built in major metropolises.

PM10 예보 향상을 위한 민감도 분석에 의한 역모델 파라메터 추정 (Inverse Model Parameter Estimation Based on Sensitivity Analysis for Improvement of PM10 Forecasting)

  • 유숙현;구윤서;권희용
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제18권7호
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    • pp.886-894
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we conduct sensitivity analysis of parameters used for inverse modeling in order to estimate the PM10 emissions from the 16 areas in East Asia accurately. Parameters used in sensitivity analysis are R, the observational error covariance matrix, and B, a priori (background) error covariance matrix. In previous studies, it was used with the predetermined parameter empirically. Such a method, however, has difficulties in estimating an accurate emissions. Therefore, an automatically determining method for the most suitable value of R and B with an error measurement criteria and posteriori emissions accuracy is required. We determined the parameters through a sensitivity analysis, and improved the accuracy of posteriori emissions estimation. Inverse modeling methods used in the emissions estimation are pseudo inverse, NNLS (Nonnegative Least Square), and BA(Bayesian Approach). Pseudo inverse has a small error, but has negative values of emissions. In order to resolve the problem, NNLS is used. It has a unrealistic emissions, too. The problems are resolved with BA(Bayesian Approach). We showed the effectiveness and the accuracy of three methods through case studies.

Stochastic Mixture Modeling of Driving Behavior During Car Following

  • Angkititrakul, Pongtep;Miyajima, Chiyomi;Takeda, Kazuya
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents a stochastic driver behavior modeling framework which takes into account both individual and general driving characteristics as one aggregate model. Patterns of individual driving styles are modeled using a Dirichlet process mixture model, as a non-parametric Bayesian approach which automatically selects the optimal number of model components to fit sparse observations of each particular driver's behavior. In addition, general or background driving patterns are also captured with a Gaussian mixture model using a reasonably large amount of development data from several drivers. By combining both probability distributions, the aggregate driver-dependent model can better emphasize driving characteristics of each particular driver, while also backing off to exploit general driving behavior in cases of unseen/unmatched parameter spaces from individual training observations. The proposed driver behavior model was employed to anticipate pedal operation behavior during car-following maneuvers involving several drivers on the road. The experimental results showed advantages of the combined model over the model adaptation approach.

Evaluation of Related Risk Factors in Number of Musculoskeletal Disorders Among Carpet Weavers in Iran

  • Karimi, Nasim;Moghimbeigi, Abbas;Motamedzade, Majid;Roshanaei, Ghodratollah
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.322-325
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    • 2016
  • Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are a common problem among carpet weavers. This study was undertaken to introduce affecting personal and occupational factors in developing the number of MSDs among carpet weavers. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed among 862 weavers in seven towns with regard to workhouse location in urban or rural regions. Data were collected by using questionnaires that contain personal, workplace, and information tools and the modified Nordic MSDs questionnaire. Statistical analysis was performed by applying Poisson and negative binomial mixed models using a full Bayesian hierarchical approach. The deviance information criterion was used for comparison between models and model selection. Results: The majority of weavers (72%) were female and carpet weaving was the main job of 85.2% of workers. The negative binomial mixed model with lowest deviance information criterion was selected as the best model. The criteria showed the convergence of chains. Based on 95% Bayesian credible interval, the main job and weaving type variables statistically affected the number of MSDs, but variables age, sex, weaving comb, work experience, and carpet weaving looms were not significant. Conclusion: According to the results of this study, it can be concluded that occupational factors are associated with the number of MSDs developing among carpet weavers. Thus, using standard tools and decreasing hours of work per day can reduce frequency of MSDs among carpet weavers.