• 제목/요약/키워드: Bayesian model

검색결과 1,312건 처리시간 0.029초

Nonlinear mixed models for characterization of growth trajectory of New Zealand rabbits raised in tropical climate

  • de Sousa, Vanusa Castro;Biagiotti, Daniel;Sarmento, Jose Lindenberg Rocha;Sena, Luciano Silva;Barroso, Priscila Alves;Barjud, Sued Felipe Lacerda;de Sousa Almeida, Marisa Karen;da Silva Santos, Natanael Pereira
    • Animal Bioscience
    • /
    • 제35권5호
    • /
    • pp.648-658
    • /
    • 2022
  • Objective: The identification of nonlinear mixed models that describe the growth trajectory of New Zealand rabbits was performed based on weight records and carcass measures obtained using ultrasonography. Methods: Phenotypic records of body weight (BW) and loin eye area (LEA) were collected from 66 animals raised in a didactic-productive module of cuniculture located in the southern Piaui state, Brazil. The following nonlinear models were tested considering fixed parameters: Brody, Gompertz, Logistic, Richards, Meloun 1, modified Michaelis-Menten, Santana, and von Bertalanffy. The coefficient of determination (R2), mean squared error, percentage of convergence of each model (%C), mean absolute deviation of residuals, Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to determine the best model. The model that best described the growth trajectory for each trait was also used under the context of mixed models, considering two parameters that admit biological interpretation (A and k) with random effects. Results: The von Bertalanffy model was the best fitting model for BW according to the highest value of R2 (0.98) and lowest values of AIC (6,675.30) and BIC (6,691.90). For LEA, the Logistic model was the most appropriate due to the results of R2 (0.52), AIC (783.90), and BIC (798.40) obtained using this model. The absolute growth rates estimated using the von Bertalanffy and Logistic models for BW and LEA were 21.51g/d and 3.16 cm2, respectively. The relative growth rates at the inflection point were 0.028 for BW (von Bertalanffy) and 0.014 for LEA (Logistic). Conclusion: The von Bertalanffy and Logistic models with random effect at the asymptotic weight are recommended for analysis of ponderal and carcass growth trajectories in New Zealand rabbits. The inclusion of random effects in the asymptotic weight and maturity rate improves the quality of fit in comparison to fixed models.

지식기반시스템에서 불확실성처리방법의 비교연구 (A Comparative Study of Uncertainty Handling Methods in Knowledge-Based System)

  • 송수섭
    • 한국국방경영분석학회지
    • /
    • 제23권2호
    • /
    • pp.45-71
    • /
    • 1997
  • There has been considerable research recently on uncertainty handling in the fields of artificial intelligence and knowledge-based system. Various numerical and non-numerical methods have been proposed for representing and propagating uncertainty in knowledge-based system. The Bayesian method, the Dempster-Shafer's Evidence Theory, the Certainty Factor model and the Fuzzy Set Theory are most frequently appeared in the knowledge-based system. Each of these four methods views uncertainty from a different perspective and propagates it differently. There is no single method which can handle uncertainty properly in all kinds of knowledge-based systems' domain. Therefore a knowledge-based system will work more effectively when the uncertainty handling method in the system fits to the system's environment. This paper proposed a framework for selecting proper uncertainty handling methods in knowledge-based system with respect to characteristics of problem domain and cognitive styles of experts. A schema with strategic/operational and unstructured/structured classification is employed to differenciate domain. And a schema with systematic/intuitive and preceptive/receptive classification is employed to differenciate experts' cognitive style. The characteristics of uncertainty handling methods are compared with characteristics of problem domains and cognitive styles respectively. Then a proper uncertainty handling method is proposed for each category.

  • PDF

베이지안 알고리즘을 이용한 유방암 진단 예측모델 (Prediction Model for Breast Cancer Diagnosis using Baysian Algorithm)

  • 정용규;이연주;원재강
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
    • /
    • 제12권2호
    • /
    • pp.175-180
    • /
    • 2012
  • 데이터 마이닝은 특정분야에서만 관심을 갖는 분야가 아니라 현재 우리주변 여러 분야에서 많이 사용되고 응용되고 있다. 수많은 데이터 가운데 숨겨져 있는 유용한 상관관계를 발견하여, 미래에 실행 가능한 정보를 예측하여 추출해 내고 추후에 의사 결정에 이용하는 과정을 말한다. 따라서 데이터를 다양한 관점으로 해석하기 위해 데이터를 변환할 수 있다. 의료분야에서의 예를 들면 간단한 질환도 분석의 결과에서 큰 차이를 발견할 수 있다. 유방암에 관련된 속성들에 대해 베이즈 이론을 적용하여 유방암 발병 확률을 예측한다. 이를 통하여 과거 환자진찰 데이터로 얻은 자료를 적용하여 증거기반의 의료서비스를 제공하며, 또한 진찰결과에 대한 신빙성을 증가시킬 수 있다.

Skin Pigment Recognition using Projective Hemoglobin- Melanin Coordinate Measurements

  • Yang, Liu;Lee, Suk-Hwan;Kwon, Seong-Geun;Song, Ha-Joo;Kwon, Ki-Ryong
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제11권6호
    • /
    • pp.1825-1838
    • /
    • 2016
  • The detection of skin pigment is crucial in the diagnosis of skin diseases and in the evaluation of medical cosmetics and hairdressing. Accuracy in the detection is a basis for the prompt cure of skin diseases. This study presents a method to recognize and measure human skin pigment using Hemoglobin-Melanin (HM) coordinate. The proposed method extracts the skin area through a Gaussian skin-color model estimated from statistical analysis and decomposes the skin area into two pigments of hemoglobin and melanin using an Independent Component Analysis (ICA) algorithm. Then, we divide the two-dimensional (2D) HM coordinate into rectangular bins and compute the location histograms of hemoglobin and melanin for all the bins. We label the skin pigment of hemoglobin, melanin, and normal skin on all bins according to the Bayesian classifier. These bin-based HM projective histograms can quantify the skin pigment and compute the standard deviation on the total quantification of skin pigments surrounding normal skin. We tested our scheme using images taken under different illumination conditions. Several cosmetic coverings were used to test the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the proposed method can detect skin pigments with more accuracy and evaluate cosmetic covering effects more effectively than conventional methods.

Security Clustering Algorithm Based on Integrated Trust Value for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Network

  • Zhou, Jingxian;Wang, Zengqi
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
    • /
    • 제14권4호
    • /
    • pp.1773-1795
    • /
    • 2020
  • Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) network are a very vibrant research area nowadays. They have many military and civil applications. Limited bandwidth, the high mobility and secure communication of micro UAVs represent their three main problems. In this paper, we try to address these problems by means of secure clustering, and a security clustering algorithm based on integrated trust value for UAVs network is proposed. First, an improved the k-means++ algorithm is presented to determine the optimal number of clusters by the network bandwidth parameter, which ensures the optimal use of network bandwidth. Second, we considered variables representing the link expiration time to improve node clustering, and used the integrated trust value to rapidly detect malicious nodes and establish a head list. Node clustering reduce impact of high mobility and head list enhance the security of clustering algorithm. Finally, combined the remaining energy ratio, relative mobility, and the relative degrees of the nodes to select the best cluster head. The results of a simulation showed that the proposed clustering algorithm incurred a smaller computational load and higher network security.

기후변화 및 단기예측을 시공간적 다지점 Downscaling 기법 개발 (Development of Multisite Spatio-Temporal Downscaling for Climate Change and Short-term Prediction)

  • 권현한;문영일;문장원;김병식
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
    • /
    • pp.120-124
    • /
    • 2009
  • 기후변화로 인한 사회, 경제, 자원, 환경, 수자원 등에 영향분석은 세계적인 연구 트렌드로 자리 잡고 있다. 다양한 모형들이 기후변화 영향을 효과적으로 평가하기 위해서 개발되고 있으나 주로 강우-유출 모형을 통한 유출의 변화 특성을 모의하는데 대부분의 연구가 초점을 맞추고 있다. 그러나 기본적으로 사용되는 강수량자료의 정확한 추정이 기후변화 연구에서 가장 중요하다고 해도 과언이 아니다. 이러한 관점에서 GCM 기후모형으로부터 유도된 기후변화 시나리오로부터 여러 단계로 가공하여 모형의 입력 자료로 사용하기 위한 강수량 자료를 생산하게 된다. 이러한 과정을 총칭해서 Downscaling이라고 한다. 본 연구에서는 기후모형으로 얻은 정보를 유역단위의 수문시나리오로 변환하기 위한 통계학적 Downscaling의 연구이론 변천 상황을 종합적으로 검토하고 각 모형이 갖는 장단점을 분석하고자 한다. 즉, Weather Generator, Single-site Nonstationary Markov Chain, Multi-site Nonstationary Markov Chain, Multi-site Weather State Based Markov Model 등 다양한 모델의 변화 및 진보 과정을 살펴보고 실제 국내 유역에 적용하여 모형의 타당성을 평가해보고자 한다. 이를 위해 IPCC 기후변화 시나리오를 활용하였으며 일강수량자료계열의 특성치, 극치수문량 변동특성 등 기후변화에 따른 영향분석을 일부 실시하여 분석하였다.

  • PDF

Updating calibration of CIV-based single-epoch black hole mass estimators

  • Park, Daeseong;Barth, Aaron J.;Woo, Jong-Hak;Malkan, Matthew A.;Treu, Tommaso;Bennert, Vardha N.;Pancoast, Anna
    • 천문학회보
    • /
    • 제41권2호
    • /
    • pp.61.1-61.1
    • /
    • 2016
  • Black hole (BH) mass is a fundamental quantity to understand BH growth, galaxy evolution, and connection between them. Thus, obtaining accurate and precise BH mass estimates over cosmic time is of paramount importance. The rest-frame UV CIV ${\lambda}1549$ broad emission line is commonly used for BH mass estimates in high-redshift AGNs (i.e., $2{\leq}z{\leq}5$) when single-epoch (SE) optical spectra are available. Achieving correct and accurate calibration for CIV-based SE BH mass estimators against the most reliable reverberation-mapping based BH mass estimates is thus practically important and still useful. By performing multi-component spectral decomposition analysis to obtained high-quality HST UV spectra for the updated sample of local reverberation-mapped AGNs including new HST STIS observations, CIV emission line widths and continuum luminosities are consistently measured. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model with MCMC sampling based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm (Stan NUTS), we provide the most consistent and accurate calibration of CIV-based BH mass estimators for the three line width characterizations, i.e., full width at half maximum (FWHM), line dispersion (${\sigma}_{line}$), and mean absolute deviation (MAD), in the extended BH mass dynamic range of log $M_{BH}/M_{\odot}=6.5-9.1$.

  • PDF

한국 기상자료의 군집분석: 베이지안 모델기반 방법의 응용 (Cluster analysis with Korean weather data: Application of model-based Bayesian clustering method)

  • 주용성;정형주;김병준
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • 제20권1호
    • /
    • pp.57-64
    • /
    • 2009
  • 이 논문에서는 한국 30개 주요도시를 강수량, 온도, 풍속, 일조량, 습도를 기준으로 군집분석을 행하였다. 군집분석 결과는 지형적 특성에 이 들 기상변수가 큰 영향을 받는 다는 것으로 나타났다. 한국은 비록 작은 나라이기는 하지만, 지형성 영향을 많이 받는 것으로 알려져 있기 때문에 우리의 연구결과는 기상에 관한 기존상식과 일치한다고 이야기 할 수 있다. 풍속을 기준으로 군집분석을 하였을때, 가장 많은 수의 군집들이 찾아졌고 일조량을 기준으로 했을 때 가장 작은 수의 군집이 찾아졌다. 풍속을 기준으로 했을 때 많은 군집들이 찾아지는 것은 바람은 국소지형에 아주 많은 영향을 받기 때문이라고 여겨진다.

  • PDF

Reliability-based Failure Cause Assessment of Collapsed Bridge during Construction

  • Cho, Hyo-Nam;Choi, Hyun-Ho;Lee, Sang-Yoon;Sun, Jong-Wan
    • 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
    • /
    • 한국콘크리트학회 2003년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
    • /
    • pp.181-186
    • /
    • 2003
  • There are many uncertainties in structural failures or structures, so probabilistic failure cause assessment should be performed in order to consider the uncertainties. However, in many cases of forensic engineering, the failure cause assessments are performed by deterministic approach though number of uncertainties are existed in the failures or structures. Thus, deterministic approach may have possibility for leading to unreasonable and unrealistic failure cause assessment due to ignorance of the uncertainties. Therefore, probabilistic approach is needed to complement the shortcoming of deterministic approach and to perform the more reasonable and realistic failure cause assessment. In this study, reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability based forensic engineering) is performed, which can incorporate uncertainties in failures and structures. For more practical application, the modified ETA technique is proposed, which automatically generates the defected structural model, performs structural analysis and reliability analysis, and calculates the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of the failure scenarios. Also, for more precise reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in forensic report.

  • PDF

자동차 재구매 증진을 위한 데이터 마이닝 기반의 맞춤형 전략 개발 (Development of Customized Strategy for Enhancing Automobile Repurchase Using Data Mining Techniques)

  • 이동욱;최근호;유동희
    • 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
    • /
    • 제26권3호
    • /
    • pp.47-61
    • /
    • 2017
  • Purpose Although automobile production has increased since the development of the Korean automobile industry, the number of customers who can purchase automobiles decreases relatively. Therefore, automobile companies need to develop strategies to attract customers and promote their repurchase behaviors. To this end, this paper analyzed customer data from a Korean automobile company using data mining techniques to derive repurchase strategies. Design/methodology/approach We conducted under-sampling to balance the collected data and generated 10 datasets. We then implemented prediction models by applying a decision tree, naive Bayesian, and artificial neural network algorithms to each of the datasets. As a result, we derived 10 patterns consisting of 11 variables affecting customers' decisions about repurchases from the decision tree algorithm, which yielded the best accuracy. Using the derived patterns, we proposed helpful strategies for improving repurchase rates. Findings From the top 10 repurchase patterns, we found that 1) repurchases in January are associated with a specific residential region, 2) repurchases in spring or autumn are associated with whether it is a weekend or not, 3) repurchases in summer are associated with whether the automobile is equipped with a sunroof or not, and 4) a customized promotion for a specific occupation increases the number of repurchases.