• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.29-39
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• 2012

The main objective is to predict the future degradation and maintenance budget for a suspension bridge system. Bayesian inference is applied to find the posterior probability density function of the source parameters (damage indices and serviceability), given ten years of maintenance data. The posterior distribution of the parameters is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The simulated risk prediction for decreased serviceability conditions are posterior distributions based on prior distribution and likelihood of data updated from annual maintenance tasks. Compared with conventional linear prediction model, the proposed quadratic model provides highly improved convergence and closeness to measured data in terms of serviceability, risky factors, and maintenance budget for bridge components, which allows forecasting a future performance and financial management of complex infrastructures based on the proposed quadratic stochastic regression model.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.42-52
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• 2018

Background: Maintenance operations on-board ships are highly demanding. Maintenance operations are intensive activities requiring high man-machine interactions in challenging and evolving conditions. The evolving conditions are weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress. For example, extreme weather condition affects seafarers' performance, increasing the chances of error, and, consequently, can cause injuries or fatalities to personnel. An effective human error probability model is required to better manage maintenance on-board ships. The developed model would assist in developing and maintaining effective risk management protocols. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a human error probability model considering various internal and external factors affecting seafarers' performance. Methods: The human error probability model is developed using probability theory applied to Bayesian network. The model is tested using the data received through the developed questionnaire survey of >200 experienced seafarers with >5 years of experience. The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities. Results: The developed methodology is tested on the maintenance of marine engine's cooling water pump for engine department and anchor windlass for deck department. In the considered case studies, human error probabilities are estimated in various scenarios and the results are compared between the scenarios and the different seafarer categories. The results of the case studies for both departments are also compared. Conclusion: The developed model is effective in assessing human error probabilities. These probabilities would get dynamically updated as and when new information is available on changes in either internal (i.e., training, experience, and fatigue) or external (i.e., environmental and operational conditions such as weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress) factors.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.64 no.1
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• pp.79-89
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• 2022

Soil moisture is significantly related to crop growth and plays an important role in irrigation management. To predict soil moisture, various process-based model has been developed and used in the world. Various models (Land surface model) may have different performance depending on the model parameters and structures that causes the different model output for the same modeling condition. In this study, the three land surface models (Noah Land Surface Model, Soil Water Atmosphere Plant, Community Land Model) were used to compare the model performance (soil moisture prediction) and develop the multi-model simulation. At first, the genetic algorithm was used to estimate the optimal soil parameters for each model, and the parameters were used to predict soil moisture in the study area. Then, we used the multi-model approach based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The results derived from this approach showed a better match to the measurements than the results from the original single land surface model. In addition, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of the single model and utilizing multi-model methods can help to increase the accuracy of soil moisture prediction.

• Journal of Korea Artificial Intelligence Association
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.11-16
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• 2023

Accurate hospital case modeling and prediction are crucial for efficient healthcare. In this study, we demonstrate the implementation of regression analysis methods in machine learning systems utilizing mathematical statics and machine learning techniques. The developed machine learning model includes Bayesian linear, artificial neural network, decision tree, decision forest, and linear regression analysis models. Through the application of these algorithms, corresponding regression models were constructed and analyzed. The results suggest the potential of leveraging machine learning systems for medical research. The experiment aimed to create an Azure Machine Learning Studio tool for the speedy evaluation of multiple regression models. The tool faciliates the comparision of 5 types of regression models in a unified experiment and presents assessment results with performance metrics. Evaluation of regression machine learning models highlighted the advantages of boosted decision tree regression, and decision forest regression in hospital case prediction. These findings could lay the groundwork for the deliberate development of new directions in medical data processing and decision making. Furthermore, potential avenues for future research may include exploring methods such as clustering, classification, and anomaly detection in healthcare systems.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.393-407
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• 2023

To assess structural condition in a non-destructive manner, computer vision-based structural health monitoring (SHM) has become a focus. Compared to traditional contact-type sensors, the advantages of computer vision-based measurement systems include lower installation costs and broader measurement areas. In this study, we propose a novel computer vision-based vibration measurement and coarse-to-fine damage assessment method for truss bridges. First, a deep learning model FairMOT is introduced to track the regions of interest (ROIs) that include joints to enhance the automation performance compared with traditional target tracking algorithms. To calculate the displacement of the tracked ROIs accurately, a normalized cross-correlation method is adopted to fine-tune the offset, while the Harris corner matching is utilized to correct the vibration displacement errors caused by the non-parallel between the truss plane and the image plane. Then, based on the advantages of the stochastic damage locating vector (SDLV) and Bayesian inference-based stochastic model updating (BI-SMU), they are combined to achieve the coarse-to-fine localization of the truss bridge's damaged elements. Finally, the severity quantification of the damaged components is performed by the BI-SMU. The experiment results show that the proposed method can accurately recognize the vibration displacement and evaluate the structural damage.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.43-52
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• 2004

In this paper, the performance of the KOMPSAT-1 orbit determination (OD) accuracy at the ground station was analyzed by using the flight data. The Bayesian least squares estimation was used for the orbit determination and the assessment of the orbit accuracy was evaluated based on orbit overlap comparisons. We also compared the result from OD using GPS navigation solutions with NORAD TLE and the result from OD using range data. Furthermore, the effect of observation type and OBT drift on the accuracy was investigated. As a consequence, It is shown that the OD accuracy using only GPS position data is on the order of 5m RMS (Root Mean Square) with 4 hrs arc overlap for the 30hr arc and the GPS velocity data is not proper as a observation for the OD due to its inferior quality. The significant deterioration of the accuracy due to the critical clock bias was not founded by means of the comparison of OD result from other observations.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.859-887
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• 2015

Structural health monitoring (SHM) has gained in popularity in recent years since it can assess the performance and condition of instrumented structures in real time and provide valuable information to the asset's manager and owner. Operational modal analysis plays an important role in SHM and it involves the determination of natural frequencies, damping ratios and mode shapes of a constructed structure based on measured dynamic data. This paper presents the operational modal analysis and seismic response characterization of the Tsing Ma Suspension Bridge of 2,160 m long subjected to different earthquake events. Three kinds of events, i.e., short-distance, middle-distance and long-distance earthquakes are taken into account. A fast Bayesian modal identification method is used to carry out the operational modal analysis. The modal properties of the bridge are identified and compared by use of the field monitoring data acquired before and after the earthquake for each type of the events. Research emphasis is given on identifying the predominant modes of the seismic responses in the deck during short-distance, middle-distance and long-distance earthquakes, respectively, and characterizing the response pattern of various structural portions (deck, towers, main cables, etc.) under different types of earthquakes. Since the bridge is over 2,000 m long, the seismic wave would arrive at the tower/anchorage basements of the two side spans at different time instants. The behaviors of structural dynamic responses on the Tsing Yi side span and on the Ma Wan side span under each type of the earthquake events are compared. The results obtained from this study would be beneficial to the seismic design of future long-span bridges to be built around Hong Kong (e.g., the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge).

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.39-39
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• 2012

Data assimilation techniques have received growing attention due to their capability to improve prediction in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modelling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modelling framework for sequential data assimilation, namely MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modelling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. In this software framework, sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and radar rainfall estimates is assessed simultaneously in sequential data assimilation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.8
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• pp.671-684
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• 2014

Change point analysis is a efficient tool to understand the fundamental information in hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, discharge, temperature etc. Especially, this fundamental information to change points to future rainfall data identified by reasonable detection skills can affect the prediction of flood and drought occurrence because well detected change points provide a key to resolve the non-stationary or inhomogeneous problem by climate change. Therefore, in this study, the comparative study to assess the performance of the 3 change point detection skills, cumulative sum (CUSUM) method, Bayesian change point (BCP) method, and segmentation by dynamic programming (DP) was performed. After assessment of the performance of the proposed detection skills using the 3 types of the synthetic series, the 2 reasonable detection skills were applied to the observed and future rainfall data at the 5 rainfall gauges in South Korea. Finally, it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) could be best detection skill and DP could be reasonably recommended through the comparative study. Also it was suggested that BCP (with 0.9 posterior probability) and DP detection skills to find some change points could be reasonable at the North-eastern part in South Korea. In future, the results in this study can be efficiently used to resolve the non-stationary problems in hydrological modeling considering inhomogeneity or nonstationarity.