• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.64 no.6
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• pp.35-41
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• 2022

Heavy snow damage can be prevented in advance with an appropriate security system. To develop the security system, we developed a model that predicts snow depth after a few hours when the snow depth is observed, and utilized it to calculate a failure probability with various types of greenhouses and observed snow depth data. We compared the Markov chain model and Bayesian long short-term memory models with varying input data. Markov chain model showed the worst performance, and the models that used only past snow depth data outperformed the models that used other weather data with snow depth (temperature, humidity, wind speed). Also, the models that utilized 1-hour past data outperformed the models that utilized 3-hour data and 6-hour data. Finally, the Bayesian LSTM model that uses 1-hour snow depth data was selected to predict snow depth. We compared the selected model and the shifting method, which uses present data as future data without prediction, and the model outperformed the shifting method when predicting data after 11-24 hours.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.285-294
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• 2007

In this paper, we investigate a novel online estimation algorithm for dynamic Bayesian network(DBN) parameters, given as conditional probabilities. We sequentially update the parameter adjustment rule based on observation data. We apply our algorithm to two well known representations of DBNs: to a first-order Markov Chain(MC) model and to a Hidden Markov Model(HMM). A sliding window allows efficient adaptive computation in real time. We also examine the stochastic convergence and stability of the learning algorithm.

• International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.314-318
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• 2010

Predicting Alpha-helicies, Beta-sheets and Turns of a proteins secondary structure is a complex non-linear task that has been approached by several techniques such as Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, Decision Trees and other statistical or heuristic methods. This project introduces a new machine learning method by combining Bayesian Inference with offline trained Multilayered Perceptron (MLP) models as the likelihood for secondary structure prediction of proteins. With varying window sizes of neighboring amino acid information, the information is extracted and passed back and forth between the Neural Net and the Bayesian Inference process until the posterior probability of the secondary structure converges.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.408-413
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• 2005

A new methodology for discrete non-Gaussian probability density estimation is investigated in this paper based on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) and kernel functions. The estimator consists of a DBN in which the transition distribution is represented with kernel functions. The estimator parameters are determined through a recursive learning algorithm according to the maximum likelihood (ML) scheme. A discrete-type Poisson distribution is generated in a simulation experiment to evaluate the proposed method. In addition, an unknown probability density generated by nonlinear transformation of a Poisson random variable is simulated. Computer simulations numerically demonstrate that the method successfully estimates the unknown probability distribution function (PDF).

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2001.10b
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• pp.139-141
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• 2001

Pharmacogenomics는 개인의 유전적 성향과 약물에 대한 반응간의 관계에 대해 연구하는 학문이다. 이를 위해 DNA microarray 데이터를 비롯한 대량의 생물학 데이터가 구축되고 있으며 이러한 대규모 데이터를 분석하기 위해서 기계학습과 데이터 마이닝의 여러 기법들이 이용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 pharmacogenomics를 위한 생물학 데이터의 효율적인 분석 수단으로 베이지안망(Bayesian network)을 제시한다. 배이지안망은 다수의 변수들간의 확률적 관계를 표현하는 확률그래프모델(probabilistic graphical model)로 유전자 발현과 약물 반응 사이의 확률적 의존 관계를 분석하는데 적합하다. NC160 cell lines dataset으로부터 학습된 베이지안 유전자망(Bayesian genetic network)이 나타내는 관계는 생물학적 실험을 통해 검증된 실제 관계들을 다수 포함하며, 이는 배이지안 유전자망 분석을 통해 개략적인 유전자-유전자, 약물-약물, 유전자-약물 관계를 효율적으로 파악할 수 있음을 나타낸다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2018.07a
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• pp.139-140
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• 2018

본 논문에서는 지도 기계 학습 알고리즘 중 하나인 Naive Bayesian (NB) 알고리즘의 데이터 분류 정확도를 향상시키기 위하여 데이터 속성에 Weight를 부여하는 새로운 기법을 제안하였다. 기존에 Decision Tree(DT) 알고리즘의 깊이를 이용하여 Weigth를 부여하는 방법이 제안되었으나, DT를 구축하는데 오버헤드가 크기 때문에 데이터의 실시간 분석이나 자원 제한적인 환경에서의 적용은 어렵다는 단점이 있다. 이를 해결하기 위하여 본 논문에서는 최소한의 데이터를 사용하여 신속하게 DT를 구축하는 Very Fast Decision Tree (VFDT) 알고리즘 기반의 Weight 부여 기법을 제안함으로써 적은 오버헤드로 NB의 정확도를 향상시킨다.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.109-118
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• 2008

We present two estimators for discrete non-Gaussian and nonstationary probability density estimation based on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The first estimator is for off line computation and consists of a DBN whose transition distribution is represented in terms of kernel functions. The estimator parameters are the weights and shifts of the kernel functions. The parameters are determined through a recursive learning algorithm using maximum likelihood (ML) estimation. The second estimator is a DBN whose parameters form the transition probabilities. We use an asymptotically convergent, recursive, on-line algorithm to update the parameters using observation data. The DBN calculates the state probabilities using the estimated parameters. We provide examples that demonstrate the usefulness and simplicity of the two proposed estimators.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2005.07b
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• pp.724-726
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• 2005

베이지안망(Bayesian network)은 다수의 변수들 사이의 확률적 관계(조건부독립성: conditional independence)를 그래프 구조로 표현하는 모델이다. 이러한 베이지안망은 비감독학습(unsupervised teaming)을 통한 데이터마이닝에 적합하다. 이를 위해 데이터로부터 베이지안망의 구조와 파라미터를 학습하게 된다. 주어진 데이터의 likelihood를 최대로 하는 베이지안망 구조를 찾는 문제는 NP-hard임이 알려져 있으므로, greedy search를 통한 근사해(approximate solution)를 구하는 방법이 주로 이용된다. 하지만 이러한 근사적 학습방법들도 데이터를 구성하는 변수들이 수천 - 수만에 이르는 경우, 방대한 계산량으로 인해 그 적용이 실질적으로 불가능하게 된다. 본 논문에서는 그러한 대규모 데이터에서 학습될 수 있는 계층적 베이지안망(hierarchical Bayesian network) 모델 및 그 학습방법을 제안하고, 그 가능성을 실험을 통해 보인다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.241-249
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• 2009

It is well known that the trend of water demand in large-size water supply systems has been suddenly changed, and many expansions of water supply facilities become unnecessary. To be cost-effective, thus, politicians as well as many professionals lay stress on the adaptive management of water supply facilities. Failure in adapting to the new trend of demand is sure to be the most critical reason of unnecessary expansions. Hence, we try to develop the model and modeling procedure that do not depend on the old data of demand, and provide engineers with the fast learning process. To forecast water demand of Seoul, the Bayesian parameter estimation was applied, which is a representative method for statistical pattern recognition. It results that we can get a useful time-series model after observing water demand during 6 years, although trend of water demand were suddenly changed.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.72-81
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• 2022

Maritime patrol aircraft is an efficient solution for detecting submarines at sea. The aircraft can only detect submarines by sonobuoy, but the number of buoy is limited. In this paper, we present the online sonobuoy deployment method for estimating the location of submarines. We use Gaussian process regression to estimate the submarine existence probability map, and Bayesian optimization to decide the next best position of sonobuoy. Further, we show the performance of the proposed method by simulation.