• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian Design

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Application of PBMD for High Strength Concrete Mix Proportion Design (고강도 콘크리트의 성능기반형 배합설계방법)

  • Lee, Sang-Won;Oh, Il-Sun;Lee, Hoo-Seok;Park, Sung-Hwan;Kim, Jang-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.405-406
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    • 2010
  • This paper is a study about application of recently proposed Performance Based Mixture Design (PBMD) for design of high strength concrete (HSC) to obtain HSC mix proportion that satisfies required performances. Based on extensive experimental results obtained for various material and performance parameters of HSC, the application feasibility of the developed PBMD procedure for HSC has been verified. Also, the proposed PBMD procedure has been used to perform application examples to obtain desired target performances of HSC with optimum concrete mixture proportions using locally available materials, local environmental conditions, and available concrete production technologies.

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Gaussian models for bond strength evaluation of ribbed steel bars in concrete

  • Prabhat R., Prem;Branko, Savija
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.84 no.5
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    • pp.651-664
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    • 2022
  • A precise prediction of the ultimate bond strength between rebar and surrounding concrete plays a major role in structural design, as it effects the load-carrying capacity and serviceability of a member significantly. In the present study, Gaussian models are employed for modelling bond strength of ribbed steel bars embedded in concrete. Gaussian models offer a non-parametric method based on Bayesian framework which is powerful, versatile, robust and accurate. Five different Gaussian models are explored in this paper-Gaussian Process (GP), Variational Heteroscedastic Gaussian Process (VHGP), Warped Gaussian Process (WGP), Sparse Spectrum Gaussian Process (SSGP), and Twin Gaussian Process (TGP). The effectiveness of the models is also evaluated in comparison to the numerous design formulae provided by the codes. The predictions from the Gaussian models are found to be closer to the experiments than those predicted using the design equations provided in various codes. The sensitivity of the models to various parameters, input feature space and sampling is also presented. It is found that GP, VHGP and SSGP are effective in prediction of the bond strength. For large data set, GP, VHGP, WGP and TGP can be computationally expensive. In such cases, SSGP can be utilized.

A study on the Pattern Recognition of the EMG signals using Neural Network and Probabilistic modal for the two dimensional Motions described by External Coordinate (신경회로망과 확률모델을 이용한 2차원운동의 외부좌표에 대한 EMG신호의 패턴인식에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Young-Gun;Kwon, Jang-Woo;Hong, Seung-Hong
    • Proceedings of the KOSOMBE Conference
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    • v.1991 no.05
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    • pp.65-70
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    • 1991
  • A hybrid model which uses a probabilistic model and a MLP(multi layer perceptron) model for pattern recognition of EMG(electromyogram) signals is proposed in this paper. MLP model has problems which do not guarantee global minima of error due to learning method and have different approximation grade to bayesian probabilities due to different amounts and quality of training data, the number of hidden layers and hidden nodes, etc. Especially in the case of new test data which exclude design samples, the latter problem produces quite different results. The error probability of probabilistic model is closely related to the estimation error of the parameters used in the model and fidelity of assumtion. Generally, it is impossible to introduce the bayesian classifier to the probabilistic model of EMG signals because of unknown priori probabilities and is estimated by MLE(maximum likelihood estimate). In this paper we propose the method which get the MAP(maximum a posteriori probability) in the probabilistic model by estimating the priori probability distribution which minimize the error probability using the MLP. This method minimize the error probability of the probabilistic model as long as the realization of the MLP is optimal and approximate the minimum of error probability of each class of both models selectively. Alocating the reference coordinate of EMG signal to the outside of the body make it easy to suit to the applications which it is difficult to define and seperate using internal body coordinate. Simulation results show the benefit of the proposed model compared to use the MLP and the probabilistic model seperately.

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A Study on the Risk Identification Methods for Initial and Mass Production Stage of Military Products Using FMEA (FMEA를 활용한 군수품 초도 생산 및 양산 단계의 위험 식별 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Chang Hee;Yang, Kyung Woo;Park, Du Il;Lee, Il Lang;Kwon, Jun Sig;Choe, Il Hong;Kim, Sang Boo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.311-324
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: It can deduce improvement plan that recognizes any risk factors in initial production and mass production by using FMEA and through this process, the appropriate criteria for defence items can be established. Methods: It proposes two methodology - Apply DT/OT data achieved from the beginning mass production stage based on FMECA data of the design stage, to risk management, and risk management plan that reflected line and field faliure data in case of is offered. Results: It proposes the risk management plan through Bayesian method and the risk identification that considered MTTF estimated value in case of initial production process. In case of mass production process, both risk identification by using fault occurrence frequency scores and Byaesian method, In case of the Initial production and mass production, it proposes use both two methods. Conclusion: A more realistic risk identification method can be applied, and by this method the quality improvement effect is expected.

Simultaneous Comparison of Efficacy and Adverse Events of Interventions for Patients with Esophageal Cancer: Protocol for a Systematic Review and Bayesian Network Meta-analysis

  • Doosti-Irani, Amin;Mansournia, Mohammad Ali;Rahimi-Foroushani, Abbas;Cheraghi, Zahra;Holakouie-Naieni, Kourosh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.867-872
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    • 2016
  • Background: Esophageal cancer is one of the most serious malignancies. Due to the aggressive nature of this cancer, the prognosis is poor. A network meta-analysis with simultaneous comparison of multiple treatments can help determine better treatment options that have higher effects on overall survival of patients with lower adverse events. The aim of this review is to simultaneously compare efficacy and adverse events of treatment interventions for esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods: In this review, only randomized control trials (RCT) will be considered for network meta-analysis. All international electronic databases including Medline, Web of Sciences, Scopus, Cochran's library, EMBASE and Cancerlit will be searched to find randomized control trials which compared two or more treatment interventions for esophageal cancer. A network plot will be drawn for visual representation of all available treatment interventions. Bayesian approach will be used to combine the direct and indirect evidence. Treatment effects (e.g. hazard ratio for time to event outcomes, risk ratio for binary outcomes, and rate ratio for count outcomes with 95% credible interval) will be reported. Moreover, cumulative probability of the treatment ranks will be reported using the surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) graphs. Consistency assumption will be assessed by the loop-specific and design-by-treatment interaction approaches. Conclusions: The results of this study may be helpful for the patients, clinicians and health policy makers in selecting treatments that have the best effect on survival and lowest adverse events.

Study on Compressed Sensing of ECG/EMG/EEG Signals for Low Power Wireless Biopotential Signal Monitoring (저전력 무선 생체신호 모니터링을 위한 심전도/근전도/뇌전도의 압축센싱 연구)

  • Lee, Ukjun;Shin, Hyunchol
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.52 no.3
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2015
  • Compresses sensing (CS) technique is beneficial for reducing power consumption of biopotential acquisition circuits in wireless healthcare system. This paper investigates the maximum possible compress ratio for various biopotential signal when the CS technique is applied. By using the CS technique, we perform the compression and reconstruction of typical electrocardiogram(ECG), electromyogram(EMG), electroencephalogram(EEG) signals. By comparing the original signal and reconstructed signal, we determines the validity of the CS-based signal compression. Raw-biopotential signal is compressed by using a psuedo-random matrix, and the compressed signal is reconstructed by using the Block Sparse Bayesian Learning(BSBL) algorithm. EMG signal, which is the most sparse biopotential signal, the maximum compress ratio is found to be 10, and the ECG'sl maximum compress ratio is found to be 5. EEG signal, which is the least sparse bioptential signal, the maximum compress ratio is found to be 4. The results of this work is useful and instrumental for the design of wireless biopotential signal monitoring circuits.

Concept of Seasonality Analysis of Hydrologic Extreme Variables and Effective Design Rainfall Estimation Using Nonstationary Frequency Analysis (극치수문자료의 계절성 분석 개념 및 비정상성 빈도해석을 이용한 유효확률강수량 해석)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Lee, Jeong-Ju;Lee, Dong-Ryul
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.1434-1438
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    • 2010
  • 수문자료의 계절성은 수자원관리의 관점에서 매우 중요한 요소로서 계절성의 변동은 댐의 운영, 홍수조절, 관계용수 관리 등 다양한 분야와 밀접한 관계를 가지고 있다. 그러나 지금까지의 수문 자료의 계절성 평가는 주로 이수과점에서 이루어지고 있으며 치수관점에서 극치수문량의 계절성을 평가하는 연구는 미진한 실정이다. 이는 극치수문량을 해석하는 방법론으로서 연최대치계열(annual maxima) 즉, Block Maxima가 이용됨에 따라 나타나는 문제점이다. 그러나 부분기간치계열(partial duration series)을 활용하게 되면 자료의 확충뿐만 아니라 자연적으로 극치수문량의 계절성에 대한 평가 또한 가능하다. 이러한 분석과정을 POT(peak over threshold)분석이라 하며 일정 기준값(threshold) 이상의 자료를 모두 취하여 빈도해석에 이용하는 방법으로서 기존 방법의 경우 연최대값이 일반적으로 7월과 8월에만 존재하게 되지만 POT 분석의 경우 여러 달에 걸쳐 빈도해석을 위한 자료가 구성되게 된다. 이를 빈도해석으로 연계시키기 위해서는 계절성을 비정상성으로 고려하여 모형화 할 수 있는 방법론의 개발이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 목적을 위해서 계절성을 고려할 수 있는 비정상성빈도해석 기법의 개념을 제시하고 모형으로 개발하고자 한다. GEV 또는 Gumbel 분포의 매개변수와 계절성을 연계시키기 위해서 Fourier 급수가 활용되며 매개변수는 Bayesian 기법을 통해 최적화 된다. 이를 통하여 설계강수량의 계절적 분포를 정량적으로 해석할 수 있으며 미래의 극치강수량에 대한 분포특성 또한 확률적으로 해석이 가능하다. 본 연구에서 제안된 방법은 국내외 시간강수량자료에 적용되어 적합성과 적용성이 평가된다.

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Risk Model Development for PWR During Shutdown (원자로 정지 동안의 위해도 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Won-Hyo;Chang, Soon-Heung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 1989
  • Numerous losses of decay heat removal capability have occurred at U during stutodwn while its significance to safety is needless to say. A study is carried out as an attempt to assess what could be done to lower the frequency of these events and to mitigate their consequences in the unlikely event that one occurs. The shutdown risk model is developed and analyzed using Event/Fault Tree for the typical pressurized water reactor. The human cognitive reliability (HCR) model, two-stage bayesian approach and staircase function model are used to estimate human reliability, initiating event frequency and offsite power non-recovery probability given loss of offsite power, respectively. The results of this study indicate that the risk of a Pm at shutdown is not much lower than the risk when the plant is operating. By examining the dominant accident sequences obtained, several design deficiencies are identified and it is found that some proposed changes lead to significant reduction in core damage frequency due to loss of cooling events.

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Analysis of Korean Import and Export in the Semiconductor Industry: A Global Supply Chain Perspective

  • Shin, Soo-Yong;Shin, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.78-104
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - Semiconductors are a significant export item for Korea that is expected to continue to contribute significantly to the Korean economy in the future. Thus, the semiconductor industry is a critical component in the 4th Industrial Revolution and is expected to continue growing as the non-face-to-face economy expands as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, this paper aims to empirically investigate how semiconductors are imported and exported in Korea from a global supply chain perspective by analysing import and export data at the micro-level. Design/methodology - This study conducts a multifaceted analysis of the global supply chain for semiconductors and related equipment in Korea by examining semiconductor imports and exports by semiconductor type, year, target country, mode of transportation, airport/port, and domestic region, using import/export micro-data. The visualisation, flow analysis, and Bayesian Network methodologies were used to compensate for the limitations of each method. Findings - Korea is a major exporter of semiconductor memory and has the world's highest competitiveness but is relatively weak in the field of system semiconductors. The trade deficit in 'semiconductor equipment and parts' is clearly growing. As a result, continued investment in 'system semiconductors' and 'semiconductor equipment and parts' technology development is necessary to boost exports and ensure a stable supply chain. Originality/value - Few papers on semiconductor trade in Korea have been published from the perspective of the global supply chain or value chain. This study contributes to the literature in this area by focusing on import and export data for the global supply chain of the Korean semiconductor industry using a variety of approaches. It is our hope that the insights gained from this study will aid in the advancement of SCM research.

A Study on CFD Result Analysis of Mist-CVD using Artificial Intelligence Method (인공지능기법을 이용한 초음파분무화학기상증착의 유동해석 결과분석에 관한 연구)

  • Joohwan Ha;Seokyoon Shin;Junyoung Kim;Changwoo Byun
    • Journal of the Semiconductor & Display Technology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.134-138
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    • 2023
  • This study focuses on the analysis of the results of computational fluid dynamics simulations of mist-chemical vapor deposition for the growth of an epitaxial wafer in power semiconductor technology using artificial intelligence techniques. The conventional approach of predicting the uniformity of the deposited layer using computational fluid dynamics and design of experimental takes considerable time. To overcome this, artificial intelligence method, which is widely used for optimization, automation, and prediction in various fields, was utilized to analyze the computational fluid dynamics simulation results. The computational fluid dynamics simulation results were analyzed using a supervised deep neural network model for regression analysis. The predicted results were evaluated quantitatively using Euclidean distance calculations. And the Bayesian optimization was used to derive the optimal condition, which results obtained through deep neural network training showed a discrepancy of approximately 4% when compared to the results obtained through computational fluid dynamics analysis. resulted in an increase of 146.2% compared to the previous computational fluid dynamics simulation results. These results are expected to have practical applications in various fields.

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