• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian 방법

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Change Detection of land-surface Environment in Gongju Areas Using Spatial Relationships between Land-surface Change and Geo-spatial Information (지표변화와 지리공간정보의 연관성 분석을 통한 공주지역 지표환경 변화 분석)

  • Jang Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40 no.3 s.108
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    • pp.296-309
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    • 2005
  • In this study, we investigated the change of future land-surface and relationships of land-surface change with geo-spatial information, using a Bayesian prediction model based on a likelihood ratio function, for analysing the land-surface change of the Gongju area. We classified the land-surface satellite images, and then extracted the changing area using a way of post classification comparison. land-surface information related to the land-surface change is constructed in a GIS environment, and the map of land-surface change prediction is made using the likelihood ratio function. As the results of this study, the thematic maps which definitely influence land-surface change of rural or urban areas are elevation, water system, population density, roads, population moving, the number of establishments, land price, etc. Also, thematic maps which definitely influence the land-surface change of forests areas are elevation, slope, population density, population moving, land price, etc. As a result of land-surface change analysis, center proliferation of old and new downtown is composed near Gum-river, and the downtown area will spread around the local roads and interchange areas in the urban area. In case of agricultural areas, a small tributary of Gum-river or an area of local roads which are attached with adjacent areas showed the high probability of change. Most of the forest areas are located in southeast and from this result we can guess why the wide chestnut-tree cultivation complex is located in these areas and the capability of forest damage is very high. As a result of validation using a prediction rate curve, a capability of prediction of urban area is $80\%$, agriculture area is $55\%$, forest area is $40\%$ in higher $10\%$ of possibility which the land-surface change would occur. This integration model is unsatisfactory to Predict the forest area in the study area and thus as a future work, it is necessary to apply new thematic maps or prediction models In conclusion, we can expect that this way can be one of the most essential land-surface change studies in a few years.

Predicting Financial Success of a Movie Using Bayesian Choice Model (베이지안 선택 모형을 이용한 영화흥행 예측)

  • Lee Gyeong-Jae;Jang U-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1851-1856
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    • 2006
  • 영화는 대표적인 경험재로 가치판단이 주관적이고 제품 수명주기가 매우 짧아 예측의 불확실성이 높기 때문에 이를 정량적인 방법으로 모형화하기는 쉽지 않다. 이러한 한계점에도 불구하고 한 영화의 상업적 성공을 예측하는 것은 영화 제작자나 배급사, 극장 등 모든 주체에게 수익과 직결되는 중요한 문제이기 때문에 지금까지 다양한 통계 모형이 제시되었다. 그러나 이들 모형의 대부분은 영화흥행에는 영향을 미치나 측정할 수 없는 효과를 반영하지 못한다거나, 추정 모수의 효과가 모든 영화에 대해서 같다는 동일성 가정으로 인해 영화간 이질성을 고려하지 못하고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 추정 모수의 사전분포를 모호사전분포로 정의함으로써 변수들의 불확실성을 반영할 수 있고, 영화간 이질성을 고려할 수 있는 베이지안 선택 모형을 제안하였다. 모수의 사후분포는 마코프체인 몬테카를로 기법인 깁스 샘플러를 이용하여 추정하였다. 또한, 감독, 배우, 장르 등의 영화 별 속성 변수뿐만 아니라, 입소문에 의한 영화관람 결정 등의 구전효과와 경쟁영화의 개봉으로 인한 효과를 반영할 수 있는 변수를 추가하여 모형의 정확성을 높였다. 2005년과 2006년 상반기에 상영된 영화를 바탕으로 모형을 구축하고 인공신경망 모형과 비교한 결과, 전체적인 예측 정확도에서는 인공신경망 모형과 비슷한 결과를 보이나 상업적으로 성공한 영화를 예측하는 데에는 베이지안 선택모형이 보다 더 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 개봉 주의 경쟁심화 정도 및 개봉 첫 주의 스크린 수 등이 영화 흥행에 가장 중요한 변수로 나타났으며, 영화 개봉 전 그 영화에 대한 기대치가 높을수록 흥행 성적 또한 좋음을 알 수 있었다. 배우의 힘 및 계절성, 영화 평점 등은 이질성을 고려하지 않은 전체수준에서는 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났으나, 그룹 간 이질성을 반영한 모형에서는 어느 정도 흥행한 영화를 만들기 위해서는 고려되어야 할 요소로 나타났다.렇지 않을 경우 적절한 벤치마킹 대상을 도출할 때까지 추가적인 분석과정을 반복한다. 제안한 방법을 통하여 조직은 기술적 생산 가능성 외에도 다양한 조직 운영 관점에서 적절한 벤치마킹 대상을 선정할 수 있으며, 이에 따른 목표를 수립할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다. 또한 더 나아가 global efficiency 관점에서 효율적 조직이 되기 위하여 단계적인 벤치마킹 대상 선정과 이에 따른 목표를 수립하는데도 유용하리라 판단된다.$1.20{\pm}0.37L$, 72시간에 $1.33{\pm}0.33L$로 유의한 차이를 보였으므로(F=6.153, P=0.004), 술 후 폐환기능 회복에 효과가 있다. 4) 실험군과 대조군의 수술 후 노력성 폐활량은 수술 후 72시간에서 실험군이 $1.90{\pm}0.61L$, 대조군이 $1.51{\pm}0.38L$로 유의한 차이를 보였다(t=2.620, P=0.013). 5) 실험군과 대조군의 수술 후 일초 노력성 호기량은 수술 후 24시간에서 $1.33{\pm}0.56L,\;1.00{\ge}0.28L$로 유의한 차이를 보였고(t=2.530, P=0.017), 술 후 72시간에서 $1.72{\pm}0.65L,\;1.33{\pm}0.3L$로 유의한 차이를 보였다(t=2.540, P=0.016). 6) 대상자의 술 후 폐환기능에 영향을 미치는 요인은 성별로 나타났다. 이에 따른 폐환기능의 차이를 보면, 실험군의 술 후 노력성 폐활량이 48시간에 남자($1.78{\pm}0.61L$)가 여자($1.27{\pm}0.45L$)보다 더 높게 나타났으며 (t=2.170, P=0.042), 72시간에도 역시 남자($2.16{\pm}0.56L$)가 여자($1.50{\pm}0.47L$)보다 더

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Quantitative separation of impacting factors to runoff variation using hydrological model and hydrological sensitivity analysis (수문모형과 수문학적 민감도분석을 이용한 유량변동 요인의 정량적 분리)

  • Kim, Hyeong Bae;Kim, Sang Ug;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • The variation in runoff due to global climate change and urbanization should be identified quantitatively because these two factors have been significantly accelerated during the last three decades in South Korea. However, only a few research to analyze the impacts due to two factors over different time scales can be found. Therefore, in this study, the hydrological model based approach and the hydrological sensitivity approach were used to separate relative impacts by two factors on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales at the Soyang River upper basin and the Seom River basin in South Korea. The 3 techniques such as the double mass curve method, the Pettitt's test, and the BCP analysis were performed to detect change point occurred by abrupt change in the collected observed runoff. After detection of change ponts, SWAT models calibrated on the natural periods were used to calculate the changes due to human activities. Also, 6 Budyko based methods were auxiliary to verify the results from hydrological based approach.

Safety Impacts of Red Light Enforcement on Signalized Intersections (교차로 신호위반 단속카메라 설치가 차량사고에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Lee, Yong Doo;Do, Myung Sik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2012
  • The frequency and severity of traffic accidents related to signalized intersections in urban areas have been more serious than those in both arterial segments and crosswalks. Especially, traffic accidents involved with injuries and fatalities have caused by traffic signal violations within intersections. Therefore, many countries including Korea have installed the red light enforcement camera (RLE) to reduce traffic accidents associated with the traffic signal violation. Meanwhile, many methodologies have been studied in terms of safety impacts estimation of red light enforcement, which, however, cannot be easy to conduct. In this study, safety impacts was estimated for intersections of Chicago downtown area using SPF models and EB approach. As a result, for all crash types and target traffic accident types such as "angle", "rear end", "sideswipe in the same and other directions", "turn", and "head on", fatal crashes were reduced by 26% and 38%. However, RLE may increase property-demage-only-crashes by 3.23% and 1.16%, respectively.

Whose Opinion Matters More? A Study on the Effect of Contradictory Word of Mouth on the Intention of Purchase (온라인 구전이 구매의도에 미치는 영향: 정보원 유형간 구전방향의 불일치성을 중심으로)

  • Soo ji Kim;Bumsoo Kim
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.115-134
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    • 2024
  • In an age where consumers can easily search and pass on their opinions of products and purchasing decisions through the internet, Electronic-word-of-mouth(Ewom) plays an important role in decision making of other potential customers. In this study, we empirically analyze the impact EWOM on consumer purchase decisions, when contradictory Ewom is presented from varying sources of information, such as experts and general consumers. First, we find that when there is a consensus among different information sources there exists a positive relationship between Ewom sentiment and purchase intent, confirming the results of previous literature. However, when expert opinion and consumer opinion do not match we find that consumer opinion is more impactful on purchasing decisions compared to the expert opinion, regardless of product types. The findings of this study add insight to the current literature by examining the effect of contradictory Ewom on purchase decisions, and also to industry marketers by presenting a more efficient strategy in promoting positive Ewom for different product types.

Study on Genetic Evaluation using Genomic Information in Animal Breeding - Simulation Study for Estimation of Marker Effects (가축 유전체정보 활용 종축 유전능력 평가 연구 - 표지인자 효과 추정 모의실험)

  • Cho, Chung-Il;Lee, Deuk-Hwan
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.53 no.1
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2011
  • This simulation study was performed to investigate the accuracy of the estimated breeding value by using genomic information (GEBV) by way of Bayesian framework. Genomic information by way of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) from a chromosome with length of 100cM were simulated with different marker distance (0.1cM, 0.5cM), heritabilities (0.1, 0.5) and half sibs families (20 heads, 4 heads). For generating the simulated population in which animals were inferred to genomic polymorphism, we assumed that the number of quantitative trait loci (QTL) were equal with the number of no effect markers. The positions of markers and QTLs were located with even and scatter distances, respectively. The accuracies of estimated breeding values by way of indicating correlations between true and estimated breeding values were compared on several cases of marker distances, heritabilities and family sizes. The accuracies of breeding values on animals only having genomic information were 0.87 and 0.81 in marker distances of 0.1cM and 0.5cM, respectively. These accuracies were shown to be influenced by heritabilities (0.87 at $h^2$ =0.10, 0.94 at $h^2$ =0.50). According to half sibs' family size, these accuracies were 0.87 and 0.84 in family size of 20 and 4, respectively. As half sibs family size is high, accuracy of breeding appeared high. Based on the results of this study it is concluded that the amount of marker information, heritability and family size would influence the accuracy of the estimated breeding values in genomic selection methodology for animal breeding.

Estimating Fine Particulate Matter Concentration using GLDAS Hydrometeorological Data (GLDAS 수문기상인자를 이용한 초미세먼지 농도 추정)

  • Lee, Seulchan;Jeong, Jaehwan;Park, Jongmin;Jeon, Hyunho;Choi, Minha
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.6_1
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    • pp.919-932
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    • 2019
  • Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is not only affected by anthropogenic emissions, but also intensifies, migrates, decreases by hydrometeorological factors. Therefore, it is essential to understand relationships between the hydrometeorological factors and PM2.5 concentration. In Korea, PM2.5 concentration is measured at the ground observatories and estimated data are given to locations where observatories are not present. In this way, the data is not suitable to represent an area, hence it is impossible to know accurate concentration at such locations. In addition, it is hard to trace migration, intensification, reduction of PM2.5. In this study, we analyzed the relationships between hydrometeorological factors, acquired from Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and PM2.5 by means of Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). By BMA, we also selected factors that have meaningful relationship with the variation of PM2.5 concentration. 4 PM2.5 concentration models for different seasons were developed using those selected factors, with Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Finally, we mapped the result of the model, to show spatial distribution of PM2.5. The model correlated well with the observed PM2.5 concentration (R ~0.7; IOA ~0.78; RMSE ~7.66 ㎍/㎥). When the models were compared with the observed PM2.5 concentrations at different locations, the correlation coefficients differed (R: 0.32-0.82), although there were similarities in data distribution. The developed concentration map using the models showed its capability in representing temporal, spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration. The result of this study is expected to be able to facilitate researches that aim to analyze sources and movements of PM2.5, if the study area is extended to East Asia.

Application of Stable Isotopic Niche Space to Large River Monitoring: Analysis of Benthic Macroinvertebrates of the Seongchon Wier (안정동위원소비를 활용한 생태지위면적 분석의 수생태계 평가 가능성 분석: 영산강 승촌보의 저서성 대형무척추동물을 대상으로)

  • Seo, Dong-Hwan;Oh, Hye-Ji;Jin, Mei-Yan;Oda, Yusuke;Kim, Hyun-Woo;Jang, Min-Ho;Choi, Bohyung;Shin, Kyung-Hoon;Lee, Kyung-Lak;Lee, Su-Woong;Chang, Kwang-Hyeon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.685-694
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    • 2018
  • We measured ecological niche space (ENS) using carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios of benthic macroinvertebrates to estimate its applicability for large river assessment. In particular, we compared ENSs of selected macroinvertebrates between upper and lower area of Seungchon Weir in Yeongsan River to estimate the impact of weir on biological community. We also measured basic water quality and community indices including benthic macroinvertebrates index (BMI) to estimate their correlations with calculated ENS. ENS was calculated using the Bayesian Stable Isotope in R statistics (package "SIBER"). The results showed that seasonal variations in water quality and community indices were found, but there was no apparent tendency between upper and lower area of the Seungchon Weir in June (before rainy season) and August (after rainy season). However, ENS of benthic macroinvertebrates markedly decreased across the weir in both June and August regardless of changes in water quality. This means the physical change of the stream due to the weir cause decrease of ecological isotopic niche space of benthic macroinvertebrates regardless of water quality, suggesting physical modification by the weir can affect the interaction between habitat condition and macroinvertebrates. Therefore, the ecological isotopic niche space can be a useful supplementary indicator for the river ecosystem assessment.

Label Embedding for Improving Classification Accuracy UsingAutoEncoderwithSkip-Connections (다중 레이블 분류의 정확도 향상을 위한 스킵 연결 오토인코더 기반 레이블 임베딩 방법론)

  • Kim, Museong;Kim, Namgyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.175-197
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    • 2021
  • Recently, with the development of deep learning technology, research on unstructured data analysis is being actively conducted, and it is showing remarkable results in various fields such as classification, summary, and generation. Among various text analysis fields, text classification is the most widely used technology in academia and industry. Text classification includes binary class classification with one label among two classes, multi-class classification with one label among several classes, and multi-label classification with multiple labels among several classes. In particular, multi-label classification requires a different training method from binary class classification and multi-class classification because of the characteristic of having multiple labels. In addition, since the number of labels to be predicted increases as the number of labels and classes increases, there is a limitation in that performance improvement is difficult due to an increase in prediction difficulty. To overcome these limitations, (i) compressing the initially given high-dimensional label space into a low-dimensional latent label space, (ii) after performing training to predict the compressed label, (iii) restoring the predicted label to the high-dimensional original label space, research on label embedding is being actively conducted. Typical label embedding techniques include Principal Label Space Transformation (PLST), Multi-Label Classification via Boolean Matrix Decomposition (MLC-BMaD), and Bayesian Multi-Label Compressed Sensing (BML-CS). However, since these techniques consider only the linear relationship between labels or compress the labels by random transformation, it is difficult to understand the non-linear relationship between labels, so there is a limitation in that it is not possible to create a latent label space sufficiently containing the information of the original label. Recently, there have been increasing attempts to improve performance by applying deep learning technology to label embedding. Label embedding using an autoencoder, a deep learning model that is effective for data compression and restoration, is representative. However, the traditional autoencoder-based label embedding has a limitation in that a large amount of information loss occurs when compressing a high-dimensional label space having a myriad of classes into a low-dimensional latent label space. This can be found in the gradient loss problem that occurs in the backpropagation process of learning. To solve this problem, skip connection was devised, and by adding the input of the layer to the output to prevent gradient loss during backpropagation, efficient learning is possible even when the layer is deep. Skip connection is mainly used for image feature extraction in convolutional neural networks, but studies using skip connection in autoencoder or label embedding process are still lacking. Therefore, in this study, we propose an autoencoder-based label embedding methodology in which skip connections are added to each of the encoder and decoder to form a low-dimensional latent label space that reflects the information of the high-dimensional label space well. In addition, the proposed methodology was applied to actual paper keywords to derive the high-dimensional keyword label space and the low-dimensional latent label space. Using this, we conducted an experiment to predict the compressed keyword vector existing in the latent label space from the paper abstract and to evaluate the multi-label classification by restoring the predicted keyword vector back to the original label space. As a result, the accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score used as performance indicators showed far superior performance in multi-label classification based on the proposed methodology compared to traditional multi-label classification methods. This can be seen that the low-dimensional latent label space derived through the proposed methodology well reflected the information of the high-dimensional label space, which ultimately led to the improvement of the performance of the multi-label classification itself. In addition, the utility of the proposed methodology was identified by comparing the performance of the proposed methodology according to the domain characteristics and the number of dimensions of the latent label space.

A Reliability Analysis of Slope Stability of Earth-Rockfill Dam (Earth-Rockfill Dam사면파괴에 대한 신뢰도 연구(I))

  • 박현종;이인모
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.21-32
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    • 1991
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a reliability model for slope stability of Earth-rockfill dams which accounts for all uncertainties encountered. The uncertain factors of the design variables include the cohesion, the angle of internal friction, and the porewater Pressure in each zone. More specifically, the model errors in estimating those variables are studied in depth. To reduce the uncertainties due to model errors, updated design variables are obtained using Bayesian Theory. For stability analysis, both the two-dimesional stability analysis and the three-dimensional stability analysis where the end effects and the system reliability concept are considered are used for the reliability calculations. The deterministic safety factor by the three-dimensional analysis is lager than that by the two-dimensional anlysis. However, the probability of failure by the three-dimensional analysis is about 3.5 times larger that by the two-dimensional analysis. It is because the system reliability concept is used in the three-dimensional analysis. The sensitivity analysis shows that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the cohesion than that of the angle of internal friction.

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