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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2017.50.3.139

Quantitative separation of impacting factors to runoff variation using hydrological model and hydrological sensitivity analysis  

Kim, Hyeong Bae (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Kim, Sang Ug (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Lee, Cheol-Eung (Department of Civil Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.50, no.3, 2017 , pp. 139-153 More about this Journal
Abstract
The variation in runoff due to global climate change and urbanization should be identified quantitatively because these two factors have been significantly accelerated during the last three decades in South Korea. However, only a few research to analyze the impacts due to two factors over different time scales can be found. Therefore, in this study, the hydrological model based approach and the hydrological sensitivity approach were used to separate relative impacts by two factors on monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales at the Soyang River upper basin and the Seom River basin in South Korea. The 3 techniques such as the double mass curve method, the Pettitt's test, and the BCP analysis were performed to detect change point occurred by abrupt change in the collected observed runoff. After detection of change ponts, SWAT models calibrated on the natural periods were used to calculate the changes due to human activities. Also, 6 Budyko based methods were auxiliary to verify the results from hydrological based approach.
Keywords
Climate change; Human activities; Hydrological sensitivity analysis; Change point;
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