• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian 다중회귀분석

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Bayesian Network Analysis for the Dynamic Prediction of Financial Performance Using Corporate Social Responsibility Activities (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 기업의 사회적 책임활동과 재무성과)

  • Sun, Eun-Jung
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.71-92
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    • 2015
  • This study analyzes the impact of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities on financial performances using Bayesian Network. The research tries to overcome the issues of the uniform assumption of a linear function between financial performance and CSR activities in multiple regression analysis widely used in previous studies. It is required to infer a causal relationship between activities of CSR which have an impact on the financial performances. Identifying the relationship would empower the firms to improve their financial performance by informing the decision makers about the different CSR activities that influence the financial performance of the firms. This research proposes General Bayesian Network (GBN) and presents Markov Blanket induced from GBN. It is empirically demonstrated that all the proposals presented in this study are statistically significant by the results of the research conducted by Korean Economic Justice Institute (KEJI) under Citizen's Coalition for Economic Justice (CCEJ) which investigated approximately 200 companies in Korea based on Korean Economic Justice Institute Index (KEJI index) from 2005 to 2011. The Bayesian Network to effectively infer the properties affecting financial performances through the probabilistic causal relationship. Moreover, I found that there is a causal relationship among CSR activities variable; that is Environment protection is related to Customer protection, Employee satisfaction, and firm size; Soundness is related to Total CSR Evaluation Score, Debt-Assets Ratio. Though the what-if analysis, I suggest to the sensitive factor among the explanatory variables.

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Bayesian Model Selection for Linkage Analyses: Considering Collinear Predictors (연관분석을 위한 베이지안 모형 선택: 상호상관성 변수를 중심으로)

  • Suh, Young-Ju
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.533-541
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    • 2005
  • We identify the correct chromosome and locate the corresponding markers close to the QTL in the linkage analysis of a quantitative trait by using the SSVS method. We consider several markers linked to the QTL, as well as to each oyher and thus the i.b.d. values at these loci generate collinear predictors to be evaluated when using the SSVS approach. The results on considering only closely linked markers to two QTL simultaneously showed clear evidence in favor of the closest marker to the QTL considered over other markers. The results of the analysis of collinear markers with SSVS showeed high concordance to those obtained using traditional multiple regression. We conclude based on this simulation study that the SSVS is quite useful to identify linkage with multiple linked markers simultaneously for a complex quantitative trait.

A Development of Nonstationary Frequency Analysis Model using a Bayesian Multiple Non-crossing Quantile Regression Approach (베이지안 다중 비교차 분위회귀 분석 기법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석 모형 개발)

  • Uranchimeg, Sumiya;Kim, Yong-Tak;Kwon, Young-Jun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Coastal Disaster Prevention
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 2017
  • Global warming under the influence of climate change and its direct impact on glacial and sea level are known issue. However, there is a lack of research on an indirect impact of climate change such as coastal structure design which is mainly based on a frequency analysis of water level under the stationary assumption, meaning that maximum sea level will not vary significantly over time. In general, stationary assumption does not hold and may not be valid under a changing climate. Therefore, this study aims to develop a novel approach to explore possible distributional changes in annual maximum sea levels (AMSLs) and provide the estimate of design water level for coastal structures using a multiple non-crossing quantile regression based nonstationary frequency analysis within a Bayesian framework. In this study, 20 tide gauge stations, where more than 30 years of hourly records are available, are considered. First, the possible distributional changes in the AMSLs are explored, focusing on the change in the scale and location parameter of the probability distributions. The most of the AMSLs are found to be upward-convergent/divergent pattern in the distribution, and the significance test on distributional changes is then performed. In this study, we confirm that a stationary assumption under the current climate characteristic may lead to underestimation of the design sea level, which results in increase in the failure risk in coastal structures. A detailed discussion on the role of the distribution changes for design water level is provided.

A comparison of synthetic data approaches using utility and disclosure risk measures (유용성과 노출 위험성 지표를 이용한 재현자료 기법 비교 연구)

  • Seongbin An;Trang Doan;Juhee Lee;Jiwoo Kim;Yong Jae Kim;Yunji Kim;Changwon Yoon;Sungkyu Jung;Dongha Kim;Sunghoon Kwon;Hang J Kim;Jeongyoun Ahn;Cheolwoo Park
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.141-166
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    • 2023
  • This paper investigates synthetic data generation methods and their evaluation measures. There have been increasing demands for releasing various types of data to the public for different purposes. At the same time, there are also unavoidable concerns about leaking critical or sensitive information. Many synthetic data generation methods have been proposed over the years in order to address these concerns and implemented in some countries, including Korea. The current study aims to introduce and compare three representative synthetic data generation approaches: Sequential regression, nonparametric Bayesian multiple imputations, and deep generative models. Several evaluation metrics that measure the utility and disclosure risk of synthetic data are also reviewed. We provide empirical comparisons of the three synthetic data generation approaches with respect to various evaluation measures. The findings of this work will help practitioners to have a better understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of those synthetic data methods.

Examining Impact of Weather Factors on Apple Yield (사과생산량에 영향을 미치는 기상요인 분석)

  • Kim, Mi Ri;Kim, Seung Gyu
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.274-284
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    • 2014
  • Crops and varieties are mostly affected by temperature, the amount of precipitation, and duration of sunshine. This study aims to identify the weather factors that directly influence to apple yield among the series of daily measured weather variables during growing seasons. In order to identify them, 1) a priori natural scientific knowledge with respect to the growth stage of apples and 2) pure statistical approaches to minimize bias due to the subject selection of variables are considered. Each result estimated by the Panel regression using fixed/random effect models is evaluated through suitability (i.e., Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion) and predictability (i.e., mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage). The Panel data of apple yield and weather factors are collected from fifteen major producing areas of apples from 2006 to 2013 in Korea for the case study. The result shows that variable selection using factor analysis, which is one of the statistical approaches applied in the analysis, increases predictability and suitability most. It may imply that all the weather factors are important to predict apple yield if statistical problems, such as multicollinearity and lower degree of freedom due to too many explanatory variables used in the regression, can be controlled effectively. This may be because whole growth stages, such as germination, florescence, fruit setting, fatting, ripening, coloring, and harvesting, are affected by weather.