• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.9
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• pp.731-745
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• 2021

In this study, the monthly temperature of the Han River basin was predicted by statistical multiple regression models that use global climate indices and weather data of the target region as predictors. The optimal predictors were selected through teleconnection analysis between the monthly temperature and the preceding patterns of each climate index, and forecast models capable of predicting up to 12 months in advance were constructed by combining the selected predictors and cross-validating the past period. Fore each target month, 1000 optimized models were derived and forecast ranges were presented. As a result of analyzing the predictability of monthly temperature from January 1992 to December 2020, PBIAS was -1.4 to -0.7%, RSR was 0.15 to 0.16, NSE was 0.98, and r was 0.99, indicating a high goodness-of-fit. The probability of each monthly observation being included in the forecast range was about 64.4% on average, and by month, the predictability was relatively high in September, December, February, and January, and low in April, August, and March. The predicted range and median were in good agreement with the observations, except for some periods when temperature was dramatically lower or higher than in normal years. The quantitative temperature forecast information derived from this study will be useful not only for forecasting changes in temperature in the future period (1 to 12 months in advance), but also in predicting changes in the hydro-ecological environment, including evapotranspiration highly correlated with temperature.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.37 no.3
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• pp.19-30
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• 2021

The presence of the hydrate-bearing sediments in Ulleung Basin of South Korea has been confirmed from previous studies. Researches on gas production methods from the hydrate-bearing sediments have been conducted worldwide. As production mechanism is a complex phenomenon in which thermal, hydraulic, and mechanical phenomena occur simultaneously, it is difficult to accurately conduct the productivity and stability analysis of hydrate bearing sediments through lab-scale experiments. Thus, the importance of numerical analysis in evaluating gas productivity and stability of hydrate-bearing sediments has been emphasized. In this study, the numerical parametric analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of the bottom hole pressure and the depressurization rate on the gas productivity and stability of hydrate-bearing sediments during the depressurization method. The numerical analysis results confirmed that as the bottom hole pressure decreases, the productivity increases and the stability of sediments deteriorates. Meanwhile, it was shown that the depressurization rate did not largely affect the productivity and stability of the hydrate-bearing sediments. In addition, sensitivity analysis for gas productivity and stability of the sediments were conducted according to the depressurization rate in order to establish a production strategy that prevents sand production during gas production. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that controlling the depressurization rate from a low value to a high value is effective in securing the stability. Moreover, during gas production, the subsidence of sediments occurred near the production well, and ground heave occurred at the bottom of the production well due to the pressure gradient. From these results, it was concluded that both the productivity and stability analyses should be conducted in order to determine the bottom hole pressure when producing gas using the depressurization method. Additionally, the stress analysis of the production well, which is induced by the vertical displacements of sediments, should be evaluated.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.12
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• pp.999-1009
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• 2022

The Chuncheon Mullori area is an underprivileged area for water welfare that does not have a local water supply system. Here, water is supplied to the village by using a small-scale water supply facility that uses underground water and underground water as the source. To solve the problem of water shortage during drought and to prepare for the increasing water demand, a sand dam was installed near the valley river, and this facility has been operating since May 2022. In this study, in order to evaluate the reliability of water supply when a sand dam is assumed during a drought in the past, groundwater runoff simulation results using MODFLOW were used to generate inflow data from 2011 to 2020, an unmeasured period. After performing SWAT-K basin hydrologic modeling for the watershed upstream of the existing water intake source and the sand dam, the groundwater runoff was calculated, and the relative ratio of the monthly groundwater runoff for the previous 10 years to the monthly groundwater runoff in 2021 was obtained. By applying this ratio to the 2021 inflow time series data, historical inflow data from 2011 to 2020 were generated. As a result of analyzing the availability of water supply during extreme drought in the past for three cases of demand 20 m³/day, 50 m³/day, and 100 m³/day, it can be confirmed that the reliability of water supply increases with the installation of sand dams. In the case of 100 m³/day, it was analyzed that the reliability exceeded 90% only when the existing water intake source and the sand dam were operated in conjunction. All three operating conditions were evaluated to satisfy 50 m³/day or more of demand based on 95% reliability of water supply and 30 m³/day or more of demand based on 99% of reliability.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.637-648
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• 2024

The frequency of extreme weather events such as heavy and extreme rainfall has been increasing due to global climate change. Accordingly, it is essential to quantify hydrometeorological variables for efficient water resource management. Among the various hydro-meteorological variables, Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Evapotranspiration (ET) play key roles in understanding the interaction between the surface and the atmosphere. In Korea, LST and ET are mainly observed through ground-based stations, which also have limitation in obtaining data from ungauged watersheds, and thus, it hinders to estimate spatial behavior of LST and ET. Alternatively, remote sensing-based methods have been used to overcome the limitation of ground-based stations. In this study, we evaluated the applicability of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) LST and ET data estimated across Korea (from July 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022). For validation, we utilized NASA's MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and eddy covariance flux tower observations managed by agencies under the Ministry of Environment of South Korea. Overall, results indicated that ECOSTRESS-based LSTs showed similar temporal trends (R: 0.47~0.73) to MODIS and ground-based observations. The index of agreement also showed a good agreement of ECOSTRESS-based LST with reference datasets (ranging from 0.82 to 0.91), although it also revealed distinctive uncertainties depending on the season. The ECOSTRESS-based ET demonstrated the capability to capture the temporal trends observed in MODIS and ground-based ET data, but higher Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error were also exhibited. This is likely due to the low acquisition rate of the ECOSTRESS data and environmental factors such as cooling effect of evapotranspiration, overestimation during the morning. This study suggests conducting additional validation of ECOSTRESS-based LST and ET, particularly in topographical and hydrological aspects. Such validation efforts could enhance the practical application of ECOSTRESS for estimating basin-scale LST and ET in Korea.