Prediction Model of Pine Forests' Distribution Change according to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 소나무림 분포변화 예측모델)
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- Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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- v.48 no.4
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- pp.229-237
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- 2015
This study aims to offer basic data to effectively preserve and manage pine forests using more precise pine forests' distribution status. In this regard, this study predicts the geographical distribution change of pine forests growing in South Korea, due to climate change, and evaluates the spatial distribution characteristics of pine forests by age. To this end, this study predicts the potential distribution change of pine forests by applying the MaxEnt model useful for species distribution change to the present and future climate change scenarios, and analyzes the effects of bioclimatic variables on the distribution area and change by age. Concerning the potential distribution regions of pine forests, the pine forests, aged 10 to 30 years in South Korea, relatively decreased more. As the area of the region suitable for pine forest by age was bigger, the decreased regions tend to become bigger, and the expanded regions tend to become smaller. Such phenomena is conjectured to be derived from changing of the interaction of pine forests by age from mutual promotional relations to competitive relations in the similar climate environment, while the regions suitable for pine forests' growth are mostly overlap regions. This study has found that precipitation affects more on the distribution of pine forests, compared to temperature change, and that pine trees' geographical distribution change is more affected by climate's extremities including precipitation of driest season and temperature of the coldest season than average climate characteristics. Especially, the effects of precipitation during the driest season on the distribution change of pine forests are irrelevant of pine forest's age class. Such results are expected to result in a reduction of the pine forest as the regions with the increase of moisture deficiency, where climate environment influencing growth and physiological responses related with drought is shaped, gradually increase according to future temperature rise. The findings in this study can be applied as a useful method for the prediction of geographical change according to climate change by using various biological resources information already accumulated. In addition, those findings are expected to be utilized as basic data for the establishment of climate change adaptation policies related to forest vegetation preservation in the natural ecosystem field.
Grain-Size Trend Analysis is the methodology to identify net sediment transport pathways, based on the assumption that the movement of sediment from the source to deposit leaves the identifiable spatial pattern of mean, sorting, and skewness of grain size. It can easily be implemented with low cost, so it has great potentials to contribute to geomorphological research, whereas it can also be used inadequately without recognition of its limitations. This research aims to compare three established methods of grain-size trend analysis to search for the adequate way of application, and also suggest the research tasks needed in improving this methodology 1D pathway method can corporate the field experience into analyzing the pathway, provide the useful information of depositional environments through X-distribution, and identify the long-term trend effectively. However, it has disadvantage of the dependence on subjective interpretation, and a relatively coarse temporal scale. Gao-Collins's 2D transport vector method has the objective procedure, has the capability to visualize the transport pattern in 2D format, and to identify the pattern at a finer temporal scale, whereas characteristic distance and semiquantitative filtering are controversial. Le Roux's alternative 2D transport vector method has two improvement of Gao-Collins's in that it expands the empirical rules, considers the gradient of each parameters as well as the order, and has the ability to identify the pattern at a finer temporal scale, while the basic concepts are arbitrary and complicated. The application of grain sire trend analysis requires the selection of adequate method and the design of proper sampling scheme, based on the field knowledge of researcher, the temporal scale of sediment transport pattern targeted, and information needed. Besides, the relationship between the depth of sample and representative temporal scale should be systematically investigated in improving this methodology.
Land-use/cover changes not only amplify or alleviate influence of climate changes but also they are representative factors to affect environmental change along with climate changes. Thus, the use of land-use/cover changes scenario, consistent climate change scenario is very important to evaluate reliable influences by climate change. The purpose for this study is to predict and analyze the future urban growth considering social and economic scenario from RCP scenario suggested by the 5th evaluation report of IPCC. This study sets land-use/cover changes scenario based on storyline from RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenario. Urban growth rate for each scenario is calculated by urban area per person and GDP for the last 25 years and regression formula based on double logarithmic model. In addition, the urban demand is predicted by the future population and GDP suggested by the government. This predicted demand is spatially distributed by the urban growth probability map made by logistic regression. As a result, the accuracy of urban growth probability map is appeared to be 89.3~90.3% high and the prediction accuracy for RCP 4.5 showed higher value than that of RCP 8.5. Urban areas from 2020 to 2050 showed consistent growth while the rate of increasing urban areas for RCP 8.5 scenario showed higher value than that of RCP 4.5 scenario. Increase of urban areas is predicted by the fact that famlands are damaged. Especially RCP 8.5 scenario indicated more increase not only farmland but also forest than RCP 4.5 scenario. In addition, the decrease of farmland and forest showed higher level from metropolitan cities than province cities. The results of this study is believed to be used for basic data to clarify complex two-way effects quantitatively for future climate change, land-use/cover changes.
In this study, we analyzed the situation of the 119 emergency medical service zone of H town, countryside of Y city from January 1st, 2015 to December 31st, 2016 and then, on the basis of this analysis, we investigated the present condition of the patient-transportation service of the 119 emergency medical service to provide the basic data in order for patients to use the emergency medical service more efficiently. We analyzed the data with SPSS 21.0 using frequency analysis and, after positioning the virtual 119 emergency medical service, we analyzed the data of the transportation time and transportation distance by using GIS. The results of this study show that the use of the 119 emergency medical service for people over 65 years old represents approximately 57% of the total number of patients transported, The average distance and time of the real moving reaction are 6.41 km and 11.86 min, respectively. The distance and time from the pick-up location to the hospital are 18.24 km and 21.52 min, respectively. Given the present position of the 119 emergency medical service, the results of this analysis using GPS show that the (average) distance and time from the 119 emergency medical service to Jang * Ri town are 9.12 km and 12 min, and the (average) total distance and time to arrive at the hospital after the emergency medical service picks up the patient are 36.83 km and 62 min, respectively. In the case of the virtual emergency medical service, the total distance and time required to arrive at the hospital after the emergency medical service picks up the patient are 27.71km and 50min, respectively. The results of this study showed that the present position of the 119 emergency service does not provide the optimum distance and time from the patient's location to the hospital. Therefore, we consider that the repositioning of the 119 emergency medical center is necessary, in order to reduce the time required for the emergency medical service to move to the patient's location and then bring the patient to the hospital.
This study analyzed the characteristics of the soil and hydrological environment of abandoned paddy wetlands examined the changes in land cover type in the ecological affect area, analyzed the environmental factors of abandoned paddy wetlands, and examined the changes in land cover type in the ecological impact area. The ecological environment characteristics of the reference abandoned paddy wetlands were investigated through literature research, environmental spatial information service, and preliminary exploration of the abandoned paddy wetlands, and the basic data for the restoration of abandoned paddy wetlands ware provided by examining the changes in land cover type in the ecological impact area for 40 years. Through this study, it will be possible to manage the rapidly increasing number of abandoned farmland to be converted into wetlands so that it can perform functions equivalent to or greater than that of natural wetlands. In particular, as we checked the clues that abandoned paddy wetlands could spread to surrounding ecological influences through land cover changes, the study sites are highly likely to be reference wetlands, and if the topography, soil, water circulation system, and carbon reduction performance are analyzed carefully, it will be possible to standardize the development process. In addition, through the change in land cover, clues were confirmed that the abandoned paddy wetlands could spread to the surrounding ecological affect areas. The land cover type in the ecological impact area, forests was mainly distributed, but generally decreased rapidly in the last 10-20 years, and forests were changing from coniferous forests to broad-leaved forests, mixed forests, or grassland. It has not yet been fully called to the wetland, and it is found that it has maintained the form of barren or grassland, and as can be seen in the case of natural wetlands after more than 30 years after abandoned, it is expected that the transition will gradually proceed to wetlands that are structurally and functionally similar to natural wetlands.
Saemangeum Lake is the largest artificial lake in Korea. The continuous deterioration of lake water quality necessitates the introduction of novel water quality management strategies. Therefore, this study aims to identify the spatiotemporal water quality characteristics of Saemangeum Lake using data from the National Water Quality Measurement Network and provide basic information for water quality management. In the water quality parameters of Saemangeum Lake, water temperature and total phosphorous content were correlated, and salt, total nitrogen content, pH, and chemical oxygen demand were significantly correlated. Other parameters showed a low correlation. The spatial principal component analysis of Saemangeum Lake showed the characteristics of its four zones. The mid-to-downstream section of the river affected by freshwater inflow showed a high nutrient salt concentration, and the deep-water section of the drainage gate and the lake affected by seawater showed a high salt concentration. Two types of water qualities were observed in the intermediate water area where river water and outer sea water were mixed: waters with relatively low salt and high chemical oxygen demand, and waters with relatively low salt and high pH concentration. In the principal component analysis by time, the water quality was divided into four groups based on the observation month. Group I occurred during May and June in late spring and early summer, Group II was in early spring (March-April) and late autumn (November-December), Group III was in winter (January-February), and Group IV was in summer (July-October) during high temperatures. The water quality characteristics of Saemangeum Lake were found to be affected by the inflow of the upper Mangyeong and Dongjin rivers, and the seawater through the Garuk and Shinshi gates installed in the Saemangeum Embankment. In order to achieve the target water quality of Saemangeum Lake, it is necessary to establish water quality management measures for Saemangeum Lake along with pollution source management measures in the upper basin.
This paper reviews comparison analysis of current and latest application for stock identification methods of Todarodes pacificus, and the pros and cons of each method and consideration of how to compensate for each other. Todarodes pacificus which migrates wide areas in western North Pacific is important fishery resource ecologically and commercially. Todarodes pacificus is also considered as 'biological indicator' of ocean environmental changes. And changes in its short and long term catch and distribution area occur along with environmental changes. For example, while the catch of pollack, a cold water fish, has dramatically decreased until today after the climate regime shift in 1987/1988, the catch of Todarodes pacificus has been dramatically increased. Regarding the decrease in pollack catch, overfishing and climate changes were considered as the main causes, but there has been no definite reason until today. One of the reasons why there is no definite answer is related with no proper analysis about ecological and environmental aspects based on stock identification. Subpopulation is a group sharing the same gene pool through sexual reproduction process within limited boundaries having similar ecological characteristics. Each individual with same stock might be affected by different environment in temporal and spatial during the process of spawning, recruitment and then reproduction. Thereby, accurate stock analysis about the species can play an efficient alternative to comply with effective resource management and rapid changes. Four main stock analysis were applied to Todarodes pacificus: Morphologic Method, Ecological Method, Tagging Method, Genetic Method. Ecological method is studies for analysis of differences in spawning grounds by analysing the individual ecological change, distribution, migration status, parasitic state of parasite, kinds of parasite and parasite infection rate etc. Currently the method has been studying lively can identify the group in the similar environment. However It is difficult to know to identify the same genetic group in each other. Tagging Method is direct method. It can analyse cohort's migration, distribution and location of spawning, but it is very difficult to recapture tagged squids and hard to tag juveniles. Genetic method, which is for useful fishery resource stock analysis has provided the basic information regarding resource management study. Genetic method for stock analysis is determined according to markers' sensitivity and need to select high multiform of genetic markers. For stock identification, isozyme multiform has been used for genetic markers. Recently there is increase in use of makers with high range variability among DNA sequencing like mitochondria, microsatellite. Even the current morphologic method, tagging method and ecological method played important rolls through finding Todarodes pacificus' life cycle, migration route and changes in spawning grounds, it is still difficult to analyze the stock of Todarodes pacificus as those are distributed in difference seas. Lately, by taking advantages of each stock analysis method, more complicated method is being applied. If based on such analysis and genetic method for improvement are played, there will be much advance in management system for the resource fluctuation of Todarodes pacificus.
First, The spatial distribution characteristics of old big trees were analyzed using ArcGIS figures by combining basic information such as species and ages of old big trees in Handan City, which were compiled by the local bureau of landscaping. The types of species, distribution by ages of trees, ownership status, growth status, and diversity status were comprehensively analyzed. Statistically, Styphnolobium, Acacia, Gleditsia, and Albizia of Fabaceae accounted for the majority, of which Sophora japonica accounted for the highest proportion. Sophora japonica is widely and intensively distributed to each prefecture and district in Handan city. According to the age and distribution, the old big trees over 1000 years old were mainly Sophora japonica, Zelkova serrata, Juniperus chinensis, Morus australis Koidz., Dalbergia hupeana Hance, Ceratonia siliqua L., and Pistacia chinensis, and Platycladus orientalis. Second, as found in each type of old big tree status, various types of old big tree status were investigated, the protection management system, protection management process, and protection management benefits were studied, and the protection of old big tree was closely related to the growth environment. Currently, the main driving force behind the protection of old big trees is the worship of old big trees. By depositing its sacredness to the old big tree and sublimating the natural character that nature gave to the old big tree into a guiding consciousness of social activities, nature's "beauty" and personality's "goodness" are well combined. The protection state of the old big tree is closely related to the degree of interaction with the surrounding environment and the participation of various cultures and subjects. In the process of continuously interacting with the surrounding environment during the long-term growth of old big trees, it seems that a natural sanctuary was formed around old big trees in the process of voluntarily establishing a "natural-cultural-scape" system involving bottom-up and top-down cross-regions, multicultural and multi-subjects. Third, China focused on protecting and recovering old big trees, but the protection management system is poor due to a lack of comprehensive consideration of historical and cultural values, plant diversity significance, and social values of old big trees in the management process. Three indicators of space's regional characteristics, property and protection characteristics, and value characteristics can be found in the evaluation of the natural characteristics of old giant trees, which are highly valuable in terms of traditional consciousness management, resource protection practice, faith system construction, and realization of life community values. A systematic management system should be supported as to whether they can be protected and developed for a long time. Fourth, as the perception of protected areas is not yet mature in China, "natural sanctuary" should be treated as an important research content in the process of establishing a nature reserve system. The form of natural sanctuary management, which focuses on bottom-up community participation, is a strong supplement to the current type of top-down nature reserve management in China. Based on this, the protection of old giant trees should be included in the form of a nature reserve called a natural monument in the nature reserve system. In addition, residents of the area around the nature reserve should be one of the main agents of biodiversity conservation.
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70