• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.135-147
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• 2001

This study proposes bankruptcy prediction model using fuzzy neural networks. Neural networks offer preeminent learning ability but they are often confronted with the inconsistent and unpredictable performance for noisy financial data. The existence of continuous data and large amounts of records may pose a challenging task to explicit concepts extraction from the raw data due to the huge data space determined by continuous input variables. The attempt to solve this problem is to transform each input variable in a way which may make it easier fur neural network to develop a predictive relationship. One of the methods selected for this is to map each continuous input variable to a series of overlapping fuzzy sets. Appropriately transforming each of the inputs into overlapping fuzzy membership sets provides an isomorphic mapping of the data to properly constructed membership values, and as such, no information is lost. In addition, it is easier far neural network to identify and model high-order interactions when the data is transformed in this way. Experimental results show that fuzzy neural network outperforms conventional neural network for the prediction of corporate bankruptcy.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.17 no.7
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• pp.139-148
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• 2012

An ensemble of classifiers is to employ a set of individually trained classifiers and combine their predictions. It has been found that in most cases the ensembles produce more accurate predictions than the base classifiers. Combining outputs from multiple classifiers, known as ensemble learning, is one of the standard and most important techniques for improving classification accuracy in machine learning. An ensemble of classifiers is efficient only if the individual classifiers make decisions as diverse as possible. Bagging is the most popular method of ensemble learning to generate a diverse set of classifiers. Diversity in bagging is obtained by using different training sets. The different training data subsets are randomly drawn with replacement from the entire training dataset. The random subspace method is an ensemble construction technique using different attribute subsets. In the random subspace, the training dataset is also modified as in bagging. However, this modification is performed in the feature space. Bagging and random subspace are quite well known and popular ensemble algorithms. However, few studies have dealt with the integration of bagging and random subspace using SVM Classifiers, though there is a great potential for useful applications in this area. The focus of this paper is to propose methods for improving SVM performance using hybrid ensemble strategy for bankruptcy prediction. This paper applies the proposed ensemble model to the bankruptcy prediction problem using a real data set from Korean companies.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.1113-1125
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• 2013

Corporate bankruptcy prediction has been an important topic in the accounting and finance field for a long time. Several data mining techniques have been used for bankruptcy prediction. However, there are many limits for application to real classification problem with a single model. This study proposes ensemble SVM (support vector machine) model which assembles different SVM models with each different kernel functions. Our ensemble model is made and evaluated by v-fold cross-validation approach. The k top performing models are recruited into the ensemble. The classification is then carried out using the majority voting opinion of the ensemble. In this paper, we investigate the performance of ensemble SVM classifier in terms of accuracy, error rate, sensitivity, specificity, ROC curve, and AUC to compare with single SVM classifiers based on financial ratios dataset and simulation dataset. The results confirmed the advantages of our method: It is robust while providing good performance.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.173-190
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to improve bankruptcy prediction models by using a novel hybrid under-sampling approach. Most prior studies have tried to enhance the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models by improving the classification methods involved. In contrast, we focus on appropriate data preprocessing as a means of enhancing accuracy. In particular, we aim to develop an effective sampling approach for bankruptcy prediction, since most prediction models suffer from class imbalance problems. The approach proposed in this study is a hybrid under-sampling method that combines the k-Reverse Nearest Neighbor (k-RNN) and one-class support vector machine (OCSVM) approaches. k-RNN can effectively eliminate outliers, while OCSVM contributes to the selection of informative training samples from majority class data. To validate our proposed approach, we have applied it to data from H Bank's non-external auditing companies in Korea, and compared the performances of the classifiers with the proposed under-sampling and random sampling data. The empirical results show that the proposed under-sampling approach generally improves the accuracy of classifiers, such as logistic regression, discriminant analysis, decision tree, and support vector machines. They also show that the proposed under-sampling approach reduces the risk of false negative errors, which lead to higher misclassification costs.

• IE interfaces
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.385-393
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• 2008

Corporate's survival or bankruptcy has been determined by interaction of macroeconomic environment, industrial dynamic environment and internal process of corporate. This study attempts to examine financial factors' differences that have influence on corporate's survival or bankruptcy before and after foreign exchange crisis in Korea. The first previous empirical study that researched the cause of corporate's survival or bankruptcy in the financial ratios was attempted by Altman in 1968. Recently various survival analysis models have been published. In this paper, Multiple Discriminant Analysis model is used. We divide analytical periods into before and after foreign exchange crisis and sample randomly survival or bankruptcy firms for each period. Independent variables are financial ratios which represent growth, profitability, activity, liquidity and productivity. In conclusion, this paper examines hypothesis as "There are differences of significant financial factors before and after foreign exchange crisis."

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.57-81
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• 1993

This paper is concerned with analyzing the bankruptcy prediction power of three methods : Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Inductive Learning, Neural Network, MDA has been famous for its effectiveness for predicting bankrupcy in accounting fields. However, it requires rigorous statistical assumptions, so that violating one of the assumptions may result in biased outputs. In this respect, we alternatively propose the use of two AI models for bankrupcy prediction-inductive learning and neural network. To compare the performance of those two AI models with that of MDA, we have performed massive experiments with a number of Korean bankrupt-cases. Experimental results show that AI models proposed in this study can yield more robust and generalizing bankrupcy prediction than the conventional MDA can do.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.17-32
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• 2017

The purpose of this study is to evaluate financial models that can predict corporate bankruptcy with diverse studies on evaluation models. The study uses discriminant analysis, logistic model, decision tree, neural networks as analyses tools with 18 input variables as major financial factors. The study found meaningful variables such as current ratio, return on investment, ordinary income to total assets, total debt turn over rate, interest expenses to sales, net working capital to total assets and it also found that prediction performance of suggested method is a bit low compared to that in literature review. It is because the studies in the past uses the data set on the listed companies or companies audited from outside. And this study uses data on the companies whose credibility is not verified enough. Another finding is that models based on decision tree analysis and discriminant analysis showed the highest performance among many bankruptcy forecasting models.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.55-71
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• 2013

The prediction model is the main factor affecting the performance of a knowledge-based system for bankruptcy prediction. Earlier studies on prediction modeling have focused on the building of a single best model using statistical and artificial intelligence techniques. However, since the mid-1980s, integration of multiple techniques (hybrid techniques) and, by extension, combinations of the outputs of several models (ensemble techniques) have, according to the experimental results, generally outperformed individual models. An ensemble is a technique that constructs a set of multiple models, combines their outputs, and produces one final prediction. The way in which the outputs of ensemble members are combined is one of the important issues affecting prediction accuracy. A variety of combination schemes have been proposed in order to improve prediction performance in ensembles. Each combination scheme has advantages and limitations, and can be influenced by domain and circumstance. Accordingly, decisions on the most appropriate combination scheme in a given domain and contingency are very difficult. This paper proposes a confidence-based selection approach as part of an ensemble bankruptcy-prediction scheme that can measure unified confidence, even if ensemble members produce different types of continuous-valued outputs. The present experimental results show that when varying the number of models to combine, according to the creation type of ensemble members, the proposed combination method offers the best performance in the ensemble having the largest number of models, even when compared with the methods most often employed in bankruptcy prediction.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.670-676
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• 2009

Bankruptcy of firms in Korea can cause distress of financial institutions because these institutions have disterssed bond. Accordingly, social and economical spill-over effects by these results are very big. Even after the difficult times of IMF crisis had ended, bankruptcy of information-based small-medium companies and venture firms listed on the KOSDAQ has been continued. In this context, this study developed and adopted failure prediction models for which discriminant analysis was used. Samples of this study was 81 firms respectively for both failed and non-failed firms listed on the KOSDAQ between the year of 2000 and 2007. The results of this study are as follows. First, the accuracy of classification of the model by years was $74.5%{\sim}76.5%$, and the accuracy of classification of the mean model was $69.6%{\sim}80.4%$. Among the models, the mean model of -one year, -two years, and -three years was highest in accuracy of classification (80.4%). Second, accuracy of prediction of final model adopted on validation samples showed 85% before one year of bankruptcy. The results of this study may be significant in that the results may be used as early warning system for bankruptcy prediction of KOSDAQ firms.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.307-332
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• 2022

One of the most intensively conducted research areas in business application study is a bankruptcy prediction model, a representative classification problem related to loan lending, investment decision making, and profitability to financial institutions. Many research demonstrated outstanding performance for bankruptcy prediction models using artificial intelligence techniques. However, since most machine learning algorithms are "black-box," AI has been identified as a prominent research topic for providing users with an explanation. Although there are many different approaches for explanations, this study focuses on explaining a bankruptcy prediction model using a counterfactual example. Users can obtain desired output from the model by using a counterfactual-based explanation, which provides an alternative case. This study introduces a counterfactual generation technique based on a genetic algorithm (GA) that leverages both domain knowledge (i.e., causal feasibility) and feature importance from a black-box model along with other critical counterfactual variables, including proximity, distribution, and sparsity. The proposed method was evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively to measure the quality and the validity.