A Comparative Study on the Bankruptcy Prediction Power of Statistical Model and AI Models: MDA, Inductive,Neural Network

기업도산예측을 위한 통계적모형과 인공지능 모형간의 예측력 비교에 관한 연구 : MDA,귀납적 학습방법, 인공신경망

This paper is concerned with analyzing the bankruptcy prediction power of three methods : Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Inductive Learning, Neural Network, MDA has been famous for its effectiveness for predicting bankrupcy in accounting fields. However, it requires rigorous statistical assumptions, so that violating one of the assumptions may result in biased outputs. In this respect, we alternatively propose the use of two AI models for bankrupcy prediction-inductive learning and neural network. To compare the performance of those two AI models with that of MDA, we have performed massive experiments with a number of Korean bankrupt-cases. Experimental results show that AI models proposed in this study can yield more robust and generalizing bankrupcy prediction than the conventional MDA can do.