• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bankruptcy prediction

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Link Weight Discrimination Analysis based Design of Input Nodes in ANN Models for Bankruptcy Prediction: Strong-Linked Neurons Selection and Weak-Linked Neurons Elimination Approach (연결강도판별분석에 의한 부도예측용 신경망 모형의 입력노드 설계 : 강체연결뉴론 선정 및 약체연결뉴론 제거 접근법)

  • 이웅규;손동우
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2000.11a
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    • pp.469-477
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    • 2000
  • 본 연구에서는 부도예측용 인공신경망 모형의 입력노드를 선정하기 위한 방법론으로 연결강도판별분석(Link Weight Discrimination Analysis)에 의한 약체뉴론제거법(Weak-Linked Neuron Elimination)과 강체뉴론선택법 (Strong-Linked Neurons Selection)을 제안한다. 연결강도판별분석이란 적절한 학습이 끝난 인공신경망 모형에서 입력노드와 연결되는 가중치의 합에 대한 절대값인 연결강도 판별식(Link Weight Discrimination)에 의해 해당 입력노 드가 출력노드에 미치는 영향정도를 분석하는 것이다. 한편 강체연결뉴론선택법은 선처리를 통해 얻어진 학습된 인공신경망의 입력노드 가운데서 연결강도판별식이 큰 뉴론만을 본처리의 입력노드로 선정하는 것인데 비해 약체연결뉴론제거법은 연결강도판별식이 일정 값 즉, 연결강도 판별임계치(Link Weight Discrimination Cut off Value) 보다 낮은 입력노드를 제외하고 나머지 입력노드만을 본처리의 입력노드로 선정하는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 강체연결뉴론선택법과 약체연결뉴론제거법을 각각 정형적인 방법론으로 정립하고 이 방법론에 의해 부도예측용 인공신경망을 구축하여 각각의 모형을 의사결정트리에 의해 선정된 인공신경망 모형 및 선처리 과정을 거치지 않은 인공신경망 모형과 성능을 비교, 분석하여 본 연구에서 제안한 방법론의 타당성을 제시하였다.

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Quality Analysis of the Request for Proposals of Public Information Systems Project : System Operational Concept (공공정보화사업 제안요청서 품질분석 : 시스템 운영 개념을 중심으로)

  • Park, Sanghwi;Kim, Byungcho
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.37-54
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to present an evaluation model to measure the clarification level of stakeholder requirements of public sector software projects in the Republic of Korea. We tried to grasp the quality of proposal request through evaluation model. It also examines the impact of the level of stakeholder requirements on the level of system requirements. To do this, we analyzed existing research models and related standards related to business requirements and stakeholder requirements, and constructed evaluation models for the system operation concept documents in the ISO/IEC/IEEE 29148. The system operation concept document is a document prepared by organizing the requirements of stakeholders in the organization and sharing the intention of the organization. The evaluation model proposed in this study focuses on evaluating whether the contents related to the system operation concept are faithfully written in the request for proposal. The evaluation items consisted of three items: 'organization status', 'desired changes', and 'operational constraints'. The sample extracted 217 RFPs in the national procurement system. As a result of the analysis, the evaluation model proved to be valid and the internal consistency was maintained. The level of system operation concept was very low, and it was also found to affect the quality of system requirements. It is more important to clearly write stakeholders' requirements than the functional requirements. we propose a news classification methods for sentiment analysis that is effective for bankruptcy prediction model.

A Study on the Usefulness of Accounting Information for the Predication of Medium and Small Enterprises' Bankruptcy (중소기업 도산예측에 회계정보 유용성에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1460-1466
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to verify how the accounting information of a bankrupt firm which is defined as a dishonor, an impaired total capital, a poor financial performance of a business, a rejection of auditor's opinion and an incongruity of auditor's opinion differs from that of a healthy firm on the basis of the index of financial affairs if the accounting information released by KOSDAQ is valuable. The sampling firms consists of 45 KOSDAQ firms that went bankrupt from 2000 to 2007 and 45 healthy firms which are selected in accordance with the sizes of assets. It has also selected the 30 sampling firms for the confirmation of the model in the same way. According to the result of the in-depth analysis, the variables related to security among the 17 indexes of financial affairs that have been used in this study for 5 years show a noticeable difference between a bankrupt firm and a healthy one. The accuracy of failed firms using this model for confirmation demonstrates 76.7% in 5 years before the bankruptcy, 76.7% in 4 years before that, 65.0% in 3 years before it, 76.7% in 2 years, 88.3% in 1 year. This data shows that the process from a healthy firm to a bankrupt one has progressed gradually and confirms the value of the index of financial affairs, exhibiting the accuracy with 83.8% of a presuming sample and 76.7% of a confirming sample for 5 years.

A Study on the Sustainability of New SMEs through the Analysis of Altman Z-Score: Focusing on New and Renewable Energy Industry in Korea (알트만 Z-스코어를 이용한 신생 중소기업의 지속가능성 분석: 신재생에너지산업을 중심으로)

  • Oh, Nak-Kyo;Yoon, Sung-Soo;Park, Won-Koo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.185-220
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to get a whole picture of financial conditions of the new and renewable energy sector which have been growing rapidly and predict bankruptcy risk quantitatively. There have been many researches on the methodologies for company failure prediction, such as financial ratios as predictors of failure, analysis of corporate governance, risk factors and survival analysis, and others. The research method for this study is Altman Z-score which has been widely used in the world. Data Set was composed of 121 companies with financial statements from KIS-Value. Covering period for the analysis of the data set is from the year 2006 to 2011. As a result of this study, we found that 38 percent of the data set belongs to "Distress" Zone (on alert) while 38% (on watch), summed into 76%, whose level could be interpreted to doubt about the sustainability. The average of the SMEs in wind energy sector was worse than that of SMEs in solar energy sector. And the average of the SMEs in the "Distress" Zone (on alert) was worse than that of the companies of large group in the "Distress" Zone (on alert). In conclusion, Altman Z-score was well proved to be effective for New & Renewable Energy Industry in Korea as a result of this study. The importance of this study lies on the result to demonstrate empirically that the majority of solar and wind enterprises are facing the risk of bankruptcy. And it is also meaningful to have studied the relationship between SMEs and large companies in addition to advancing research on new start-up companies.

Failing Prediction Models of KOSDADQ Firms by using of Logistic Regression (로지스틱회귀분석을 이용한 코스닥기업의 부실예측모형 연구)

  • Park, Hee-Jung;Kang, Ho-Jung
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.305-311
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    • 2009
  • The bankruptcy in Korea affects to all stakeholder of firms. Companies listed in KOSDAQ have high technology but the possibilities for success of business are low. The purpose of this study is to develop and to applicate falling prediction model of KOSDAQ firms using logistic regression analysis. The results of this study are as follows. First, the accuracy of classification of the models by years was between 76.5% and 77.5%, and that of the mean model was between 70.6% and 83.4%. Among the models, the mean model of -three years, -two years, and -one year was highest in the accuracy of classification (83.4%). Second, when the mean model of -three year, -two years, and -one years, the highest model in accuracy of classification, was selected to be verified on validation samples, the accuracy of prediction increased from -three years to -one year (71.7% for -three years, 75.0% for -two years, 90.0% for -one year). In indicating the superiority of developed model.

The Pattern Analysis of Financial Distress for Non-audited Firms using Data Mining (데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 비외감기업의 부실화 유형 분석)

  • Lee, Su Hyun;Park, Jung Min;Lee, Hyoung Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.111-131
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    • 2015
  • There are only a handful number of research conducted on pattern analysis of corporate distress as compared with research for bankruptcy prediction. The few that exists mainly focus on audited firms because financial data collection is easier for these firms. But in reality, corporate financial distress is a far more common and critical phenomenon for non-audited firms which are mainly comprised of small and medium sized firms. The purpose of this paper is to classify non-audited firms under distress according to their financial ratio using data mining; Self-Organizing Map (SOM). SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised learning to produce a lower dimensional discretized representation of the input space of the training samples, called a map. SOM is different from other artificial neural networks as it applies competitive learning as opposed to error-correction learning such as backpropagation with gradient descent, and in the sense that it uses a neighborhood function to preserve the topological properties of the input space. It is one of the popular and successful clustering algorithm. In this study, we classify types of financial distress firms, specially, non-audited firms. In the empirical test, we collect 10 financial ratios of 100 non-audited firms under distress in 2004 for the previous two years (2002 and 2003). Using these financial ratios and the SOM algorithm, five distinct patterns were distinguished. In pattern 1, financial distress was very serious in almost all financial ratios. 12% of the firms are included in these patterns. In pattern 2, financial distress was weak in almost financial ratios. 14% of the firms are included in pattern 2. In pattern 3, growth ratio was the worst among all patterns. It is speculated that the firms of this pattern may be under distress due to severe competition in their industries. Approximately 30% of the firms fell into this group. In pattern 4, the growth ratio was higher than any other pattern but the cash ratio and profitability ratio were not at the level of the growth ratio. It is concluded that the firms of this pattern were under distress in pursuit of expanding their business. About 25% of the firms were in this pattern. Last, pattern 5 encompassed very solvent firms. Perhaps firms of this pattern were distressed due to a bad short-term strategic decision or due to problems with the enterpriser of the firms. Approximately 18% of the firms were under this pattern. This study has the academic and empirical contribution. In the perspectives of the academic contribution, non-audited companies that tend to be easily bankrupt and have the unstructured or easily manipulated financial data are classified by the data mining technology (Self-Organizing Map) rather than big sized audited firms that have the well prepared and reliable financial data. In the perspectives of the empirical one, even though the financial data of the non-audited firms are conducted to analyze, it is useful for find out the first order symptom of financial distress, which makes us to forecast the prediction of bankruptcy of the firms and to manage the early warning and alert signal. These are the academic and empirical contribution of this study. The limitation of this research is to analyze only 100 corporates due to the difficulty of collecting the financial data of the non-audited firms, which make us to be hard to proceed to the analysis by the category or size difference. Also, non-financial qualitative data is crucial for the analysis of bankruptcy. Thus, the non-financial qualitative factor is taken into account for the next study. This study sheds some light on the non-audited small and medium sized firms' distress prediction in the future.

Business Failure: Overview and Research Trend (사업실패에 관한 국내외 연구동향)

  • Bae, Tae Jun;Choi, Yun Hyeong
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.43-75
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    • 2020
  • The main purpose of this study is to analyze research trend of 'business failure' from academic papers published in Asia Pacific Journal of Small Business. In this review, first, we reviewed research trend of failure, published in academic journals at abroad, explored the major topics, and set forth the framework of classification. Second, we selected and analyzed 16 Korean articles in a refined search from total 1,060 articles published in Asia Pacific Journal of Small Business from 1979 to 2019. Third, in order to understand overall research trend in Korea, additional publication search was done by online database system using keywords, and 24 other articles were selected. As a result, five research themes were identified and analyzed: (1) bankruptcy prediction, (2) emotion before and after failure, (3) costs of failure, (4) causes of failure, and (5) reentry determinants. We believe that this purposed review will offer future research issues regarding business failure.

The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM (다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형)

  • Park, Ji-Young;Hong, Tae-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.139-155
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    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.

The Prediction of Purchase Amount of Customers Using Support Vector Regression with Separated Learning Method (Support Vector Regression에서 분리학습을 이용한 고객의 구매액 예측모형)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.213-225
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    • 2010
  • Data mining has empowered the managers who are charge of the tasks in their company to present personalized and differentiated marketing programs to their customers with the rapid growth of information technology. Most studies on customer' response have focused on predicting whether they would respond or not for their marketing promotion as marketing managers have been eager to identify who would respond to their marketing promotion. So many studies utilizing data mining have tried to resolve the binary decision problems such as bankruptcy prediction, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card usages. The prediction of customer's response has been studied with similar methods mentioned above because the prediction of customer's response is a kind of dichotomous decision problem. In addition, a number of competitive data mining techniques such as neural networks, SVM(support vector machine), decision trees, logit, and genetic algorithms have been applied to the prediction of customer's response for marketing promotion. The marketing managers also have tried to classify their customers with quantitative measures such as recency, frequency, and monetary acquired from their transaction database. The measures mean that their customers came to purchase in recent or old days, how frequent in a period, and how much they spent once. Using segmented customers we proposed an approach that could enable to differentiate customers in the same rating among the segmented customers. Our approach employed support vector regression to forecast the purchase amount of customers for each customer rating. Our study used the sample that included 41,924 customers extracted from DMEF04 Data Set, who purchased at least once in the last two years. We classified customers from first rating to fifth rating based on the purchase amount after giving a marketing promotion. Here, we divided customers into first rating who has a large amount of purchase and fifth rating who are non-respondents for the promotion. Our proposed model forecasted the purchase amount of the customers in the same rating and the marketing managers could make a differentiated and personalized marketing program for each customer even though they were belong to the same rating. In addition, we proposed more efficient learning method by separating the learning samples. We employed two learning methods to compare the performance of proposed learning method with general learning method for SVRs. LMW (Learning Method using Whole data for purchasing customers) is a general learning method for forecasting the purchase amount of customers. And we proposed a method, LMS (Learning Method using Separated data for classification purchasing customers), that makes four different SVR models for each class of customers. To evaluate the performance of models, we calculated MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) for each model to predict the purchase amount of customers. In LMW, the overall performance was 0.670 MAPE and the best performance showed 0.327 MAPE. Generally, the performances of the proposed LMS model were analyzed as more superior compared to the performance of the LMW model. In LMS, we found that the best performance was 0.275 MAPE. The performance of LMS was higher than LMW in each class of customers. After comparing the performance of our proposed method LMS to LMW, our proposed model had more significant performance for forecasting the purchase amount of customers in each class. In addition, our approach will be useful for marketing managers when they need to customers for their promotion. Even if customers were belonging to same class, marketing managers could offer customers a differentiated and personalized marketing promotion.

Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.