• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.800-807
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• 2009

The limited public funds available for infrastructure projects have led governments to consider private entities' participation in long-term contracts for finance, construction, and operation of these projects to share risks and rewards between the public and the private. Because these projects have complicated risk evolutions, diverse contractual forms for each project member to hedge risks involved in a project are necessary. In light of this, Build-Operate-Transfer(BOT) model is considered as effective to accomplish Public Private Partnerships(PPPs) with a characteristic of an ownership-reversion. In BOT projects, the government has used such an incentive system as minimum revenue guarantee(MRG) agreement to attract the private's participation. Although this agreement turns out critical in success of BOT project, there still exist problematic issues in a financial feasibility analysis since the traditional capital budgeting theory, Net Present Value(NPV) analysis, has failed to evaluate the contingent characteristic of MRG agreement. The purpose of this research is to develop real option model based on option pricing theory so as to provide a theoretical framework in valuing MRG agreement in BOT projects. To understand the applicability of the model, the model is applied to the example of the BOT toll road project and the results are compared with that by NPV analysis. Finally, we found that the impact of the MRG agreement is significant on the project value. Hence, the real option model can help the government establish better BOT policies and the developer make appropriate bidding strategies.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.121-132
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• 2011

One of the advantages of BOT PF(Project Finance) is the government can be protected from risks involved in projects as the private finances, builds, and operates relevant projects. Moreover, the private may avoid outstanding responsibility in case of default thanks to BOT PF's unique financial structure and characteristics. However, despite increasing attention on risk mitigation effect of financial structure and characteristic of BOT PF to default risk with emerging controversies of capital crunch, introduction of IFRS, and contingent liabilities, valuation of default risk mitigation effect caused by financial structure and characteristics of BOT PF still seems sophisticated due to uncertain cash flows, complexly layered contracts, and their interaction. So, this paper is to show the theoretical frame to assess the default risk mitigation effect of financial structure and characteristic of BOT PF with option pricing and related financial economic theories and to provide some meaningful implications. Finally, this research shows that the financial structure and characteristics of BOT PF help mitigate the default risk and default risk mitigation effect increases as change of relevant variables on financial feasibility gets the BOT project less financially feasible.