• Title/Summary/Keyword: BIC%

Search Result 210, Processing Time 0.038 seconds

Intensity estimation with log-linear Poisson model on linear networks

  • Idris Demirsoy;Fred W. Hufferb
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.30 no.1
    • /
    • pp.95-107
    • /
    • 2023
  • Purpose: The statistical analysis of point processes on linear networks is a recent area of research that studies processes of events happening randomly in space (or space-time) but with locations limited to reside on a linear network. For example, traffic accidents happen at random places that are limited to lying on a network of streets. This paper applies techniques developed for point processes on linear networks and the tools available in the R-package spatstat to estimate the intensity of traffic accidents in Leon County, Florida. Methods: The intensity of accidents on the linear network of streets is estimated using log-linear Poisson models which incorporate cubic basis spline (B-spline) terms which are functions of the x and y coordinates. The splines used equally-spaced knots. Ten different models are fit to the data using a variety of covariates. The models are compared with each other using an analysis of deviance for nested models. Results: We found all covariates contributed significantly to the model. AIC and BIC were used to select 9 as the number of knots. Additionally, covariates have different effects such as increasing the speed limit would decrease traffic accident intensity by 0.9794 but increasing the number of lanes would result in an increase in the intensity of traffic accidents by 1.086. Conclusion: Our analysis shows that if other conditions are held fixed, the number of accidents actually decreases on roads with higher speed limits. The software we currently use allows our models to contain only spatial covariates and does not permit the use of temporal or space-time covariates. We would like to extend our models to include such covariates which would allow us to include weather conditions or the presence of special events (football games or concerts) as covariates.

Development of drought frequency analysis program (가뭄빈도해석 프로그램 개발)

  • Lee, Jeong Ju;Kang, Shin Uk;Chun, Gun Il;Kim, Hyeon Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2020.06a
    • /
    • pp.14-14
    • /
    • 2020
  • 일반적으로 수문빈도해석은 치수계획 수립에 이용되는 설계강수량, 계획홍수량 등을 산정하기 위해 연최대치계열 또는 연초과치계열 자료를 이용한 극치빈도해석을 수행하고, 확률분포의 우측꼬리(right tail) 부분을 이용하여 확장된 재현기간에 해당하는 확률수문량을 추정한다. 하지만 가뭄 관련 분석에서는 확률분포의 좌측꼬리(left tail) 부분은 이용해 확장된 재현기간별 확률수문량을 추정해야할 경우가 발생한다. 또한 물관리 실무에서 장 단기 운영계획 수립을 위해 이용하는 갈수빈도 유입량 산정 등에서도 평년보다 작은 수문량에 대한 빈도해석이 필요한 경우가 있다. 국가 가뭄정보분석센터에서는 기존에 K-water연구원에서 개발한 빈도해석 프로그램인 K-FAT의 분석모듈을 이용해 극소치계열 또는 갈수빈도 유입량 분석에 특화된 가뭄빈도해석 프로그램을 개발하였다. 본 프로그램은 GEV, Gumbel, Weibull 등 14개의 확률분포형을 포함하며, 모멘트법, 최우도법 및 L-모멘트법을 사용하여 매개변수를 추정한다. 적합도 검정의 경우 χ2, K-S, CVM, PPCC 및 수정 Anderson-Darling test를 이용하여 다각적인 검정을 할 수 있도록 하였다. 분석을 위한 입력 자료의 경우 사용자가 전처리를 통해 준비한 연최소치계열 등 연도별 시계열자료를 이용할 수 있으며, 일단위 및 월단위의 강수량 또는 댐 유입량 자료를 이용해 사용자가 원하는 기간의 누적강수량, 평균 유입량으로 변환할 수 있는 자료변환 기능을 추가하여 실무 활용성을 높였다. 또한 최적 확률분포 선정을 위해 참고할 수 있도록 AIC(Akaike information criteria)와 BIC(Bayesian information criteria) 분석이 포함되어 있으며, Bootstrap 기법 등을 이용한 불확실성 산정을 통해 추정 값의 신뢰구간을 표시하도록 하였다. 개발된 프로그램은 베타버전 시험배포를 거쳐 가뭄정보포털을 통해 배포할 예정이다.

  • PDF

Future drought risk assessment under CMIP6 GCMs scenarios

  • Thi, Huong-Nguyen;Kim, Jin-Guk;Fabian, Pamela Sofia;Kang, Dong-Won;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2022.05a
    • /
    • pp.305-305
    • /
    • 2022
  • A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

  • PDF

Efficacy of plasma treatment for surface cleansing and osseointegration of sandblasted and acid-etched titanium implants

  • Gang-Ho Bae;Won-Tak Cho;Jong-Ho Lee;Jung-Bo Huh
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.189-199
    • /
    • 2024
  • PURPOSE. This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of plasma treatment of sandblasted and acid-etched (SLA) titanium implants on surface cleansing and osseointegration in a beagle model. MATERIALS AND METHODS. For morphological analysis and XPS analysis, scanning electron microscope and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy were used to analyze the surface topography and chemical compositions of implant before and after plasma treatment. For this animal experiment, twelve SLA titanium implants were divided into two groups: a control group (untreated implants) and a plasma group (implants treated with plasma). Each group was randomly located in the mandibular bone of the beagle dog (n = 6). After 8 weeks, the beagle dogs were sacrificed, and volumetric analysis and histometric analysis were performed within the region of interest. RESULTS. In morphological analysis, plasma treatment did not alter the implant surface topography or cause any physical damage. In XPS analysis, the atomic percentage of carbon at the inspection point before the plasma treatment was 34.09%. After the plasma treatment, it was reduced to 18.74%, indicating a 45% reduction in carbon. In volumetric analysis and histometric analysis, the plasma group exhibited relatively higher mean values for new bone volume (NBV), bone to implant contact (BIC), and inter-thread bone density (ITBD) compared to the control group. However, there was no significant difference between the two groups (P > .05). CONCLUSION. Within the limits of this study, plasma treatment effectively eliminated hydrocarbons without changing the implant surface.

Traffic Forecasting Model Selection of Artificial Neural Network Using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC(AKaike's Information Criterion)을 이용한 교통량 예측 모형)

  • Kang, Weon-Eui;Baik, Nam-Cheol;Yoon, Hye-Kyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.22 no.7 s.78
    • /
    • pp.155-159
    • /
    • 2004
  • Recently, there are many trials about Artificial neural networks : ANNs structure and studying method of researches for forecasting traffic volume. ANNs have a powerful capabilities of recognizing pattern with a flexible non-linear model. However, ANNs have some overfitting problems in dealing with a lot of parameters because of its non-linear problems. This research deals with the application of a variety of model selection criterion for cancellation of the overfitting problems. Especially, this aims at analyzing which the selecting model cancels the overfitting problems and guarantees the transferability from time measure. Results in this study are as follow. First, the model which is selecting in sample does not guarantees the best capabilities of out-of-sample. So to speak, the best model in sample is no relationship with the capabilities of out-of-sample like many existing researches. Second, in stability of model selecting criterion, AIC3, AICC, BIC are available but AIC4 has a large variation comparing with the best model. In time-series analysis and forecasting, we need more quantitable data analysis and another time-series analysis because uncertainty of a model can have an effect on correlation between in-sample and out-of-sample.

Effect on bone healing by the application of low intensity pulsed ultrasound after injection of adipose tissue-derived stem cells at the implantation of titanium implant in the tibia of diabetes-induced rat (당뇨유도 백서 경골에 티타늄 임플란트 매식 시 지방조직 유래 줄기세포 주입 후 저출력 초음파 적용이 골치유에 미치는 영향)

  • Jung, Tae-Young;Park, Sang-Jun;Hwang, Dae-Suk;Kim, Yong-Deok;Lee, Soo-Woon;Kim, Uk-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
    • /
    • v.37 no.4
    • /
    • pp.301-311
    • /
    • 2011
  • Introduction: This study examined the effect of the application of low intensity pulsed ultrasound on bone healing after an injection of adipose tissue-derived stem cells (ADSCs) during the implantation of a titanium implant in the tibia of diabetes-induced rats. Materials and Methods: Twelve Sprague-Dawely rats were used. After inducing diabetes, the ADSCs were injected into the hole for the implant. Customized screw type implants, 2.0 mm in diameter and 3.5 mm in length, were implanted in both the tibia of the diabetes-induced rats. After implantation, LIPUS was applied with parameters of 3 MHz, 40 mW/$cm^2$, and 10 minutes for 7 days to the left tibiae (experimental group) of the diabetesinduced rats. The right tibiae in each rat were used in the control group. At 1, 2 and 4 week rats were sacrificed, and the bone tissues of both tibia were harvested. The bone tissues of the three rats in each week were used for bone-to-implant contact (BIC) and bone area (BA) analyses and the bone tissues of one rat were used to make sagittal serial sections. Results: In histomorphometric analyses, the BIC in the experimental and control group were respectively, $39.00{\pm}18.17%$ and $42.87{\pm}9.27%$ at 1 week, $43.74{\pm}6.83%$ and $32.27{\pm}6.00%$ at 2 weeks, and $32.62{\pm}11.02%$ and $47.10{\pm}9.77%$ at 4 weeks. The BA in experimental and control group were respectively, $37.28{\pm}3.68%$ and $31.90{\pm}2.84%$ at 1 week, $20.62{\pm}2.47%$ and $15.64{\pm}2.69%$ at 2 weeks, and $11.37{\pm}4.54%$ and $17.69{\pm}8.77%$ at 4 weeks. In immunohistochemistry analyses, Osteoprotegerin expression was strong at 1 and 2 weeks in the experimental group than the control group. Receptor activator of nuclear factor kB ligand expression showed similar staining at each week in the experimental and control group. Conclusion: These results suggest that the application of low intensity pulsed ultrasound after an injection of adipose tissue-derived stem cells during the implantation of titanium implants in the tibia of diabetes-induced rats provided some positive effect on bone regeneration at the early stage after implantation. On the other hand, this method is unable to increase the level of osseointegration and bone regeneration of the implant in an uncontrolled diabetic patient.

Comparison of Development times of Myzus persicae (Hemiptera:Aphididae) between the Constant and Variable Temperatures and its Temperature-dependent Development Models (항온과 변온조건에서 복숭아혹진딧물의 발육비교 및 온도 발육모형)

  • Kim, Do-Ik;Choi, Duck-Soo;Ko, Suk-Ju;Kang, Beom-Ryong;Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Seon-Gon;Park, Jong-Dae;Kim, Sang-Soo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.51 no.4
    • /
    • pp.431-438
    • /
    • 2012
  • The developmental time of the nymphs of Myzus persicae was studied in the laboratory (six constant temperatures from 15 to $30^{\circ}C$ with 50~60% RH, and a photoperiod of 14L:10D) and in a green-pepper plastic house. Mortality of M. persicae in laboratory was high in the first(6.7~13.3%) and second instar nymphs(6.7%) at low temperatures and high in the third (17.8%) and fourth instar nymphs(17.8%) at high temperatures. Mortality was 66.7% at $33^{\circ}C$ in laboratory and $26.7^{\circ}C$ in plastic house. The total developmental time was the longest at $14.6^{\circ}C$ (14.4 days) and shortest at $26.7^{\circ}C$ (6.0 days) in plastic house. The lower threshold temperature of the total nymphal stage was $3.0^{\circ}C$ in laboratory. The thermal constant required for nymphal stage was 111.1DD. The relationship between developmental rate and temperature was fitted nonlinear model by Logan-6 which has the lowest value on Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The distribution of completion of each developmental stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2=0.95{\sim}0.97$). This model accurately described the predicted and observed occurrences. Thus the model is considered to be good for use in predicting the optimal spray time for Myzus persicae.

Comparison of Temperature-dependent Development Model of Aphis gossypii (Hemiptera: Aphididae) under Constant Temperature and Fluctuating Temperature (실내 항온과 온실 변온조건에서 목화진딧물의 온도 발육비교)

  • Kim, Do-Ik;Ko, Suk-Ju;Choi, Duck-Soo;Kang, Beom-Ryong;Park, Chang-Gyu;Kim, Seon-Gon;Park, Jong-Dae;Kim, Sang-Soo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
    • /
    • v.51 no.4
    • /
    • pp.421-429
    • /
    • 2012
  • The developmental time period of Aphis gossypii was studied in laboratory (six constant temperatures from 15 to $30^{\circ}C$ with 50~60% RH, and a photoperiod of 14L:10D) and in a cucumber plastic house. The mortality of A. gossypii in the laboratory was high in the 2nd (20.0%) and 3rd stage(13.3%) at low temperature but high in the 3rd (26.7%) and 4th stage (33.3%) at high temperatures. Mortality in the plastic house was high in the 1st and 2nd stage but there was no mortality in the 4th stage at low temperature. The total developmental period was longest at $15^{\circ}C$ (12.2 days) in the laboratory and shortest at $28.5^{\circ}C$ (4.09 days) in the plastic house. The lower threshold temperature at the total nymphal stage was $6.8^{\circ}C$ in laboratory. The thermal constant required to reach the total nymphal stage was 111.1DD. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature fit the nonlinear model of Logan-6 which has the lowest value for the Akaike information criterion(AIC) and Bayesian information criterion(BIC). The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 3-parameter Weibull function ($r^2=0.89{\sim}0.96$). This model accurately described the predicted and observed outcomes. Thus it is considered that the model can be used for predicting the optimal spray time for Aphis gossypii.

A Study on Startups' Dependence on Business Incubation Centers (창업보육서비스에 따른 입주기업의 창업보육센터 의존도에 관한 연구)

  • Park, JaeSung;Lee, Chul;Kim, JaeJon
    • Korean small business review
    • /
    • v.31 no.2
    • /
    • pp.103-120
    • /
    • 2009
  • As business incubation centers (BICs) have been operating for more than 10 years in Korea, many early stage startups tend to use the services provided by the incubating centers. BICs in Korea have accumulated the knowledge and experience in the past ten years and their services have been considerably improved. The business incubating service has three facets : (1) business infrastructure service, (2) direct service, and (3) indirect service. The mission of BICs is to provide the early stage entrepreneurs with the incubating service in a limited period time to help them grow strong enough to survive the fierce competition after graduating from the incubation. However, the incubating services sometimes fail to foster the independence of new startup companies, and raise the dependence of many companies on BICs. Thus, the dependence on BICs is a very important factor to understand the survival of the incubated startup companies after graduation from BICs. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factors that influence the firm's dependence on BICs and to characterize the relationships among the identified factors. The business incubating service is a core construct of this study. It includes various activities and resources, such as offering the physical facilities, legal service, and connecting them with outside organizations. These services are extensive and take various forms. They are provided by BICs directly or indirectly. Past studies have identified various incubating services and classify them in different ways. Based on the past studies, we classify the business incubating service into three categories as mentioned above : (1) business infrastructure support, (2) direct support, and (3) networking support. The business infrastructure support is to provide the essential resources to start the business, such as physical facilities. The direct support is to offer the business resources available in the BICs, such as human, technical, and administrational resources. Finally, the indirect service was to support the resource in the outside of business incubation center. Dependence is generally defined as the degree to which a client firm needs the resources provided by the service provider in order to achieve its goals. Dependence is generated when a firm recognizes the benefits of interacting with its counterpart. Hence, the more positive outcomes a firm derives from its relationship with the partner, the more dependent on the partner the firm must inevitably become. In business incubating, as a resident firm is incubated in longer period, we can predict that her dependence on BICs would be stronger. In order to foster the independence of the incubated firms, BICs have to be able to manipulate the provision of their services to control the firms' dependence on BICs. Based on the above discussion, the research model for relationships between dependence and its affecting factors was developed. We surveyed the companies residing in BICs to test our research model. The instrument of our study was modified, in part, on the basis of previous relevant studies. For the purposes of testing reliability and validity, preliminary testing was conducted with firms that were residing in BICs and incubated by the BICs in the region of Gwangju and Jeonnam. The questionnaire was modified in accordance with the pre-test feedback. We mailed to all of the firms that had been incubated by the BICs with the help of business incubating managers of each BIC. The survey was conducted over a three week period. Gifts (of approximately ₩10,000 value) were offered to all actively participating respondents. The incubating period was reported by the business incubating managers, and it was transformed using natural logarithms. A total of 180 firms participated in the survey. However, we excluded 4 cases due to a lack of consistency using reversed items in the answers of the companies, and 176 cases were used for the analysis. We acknowledge that 176 samples may not be sufficient to conduct regression analyses with 5 research variables in our study. Each variable was measured through multiple items. We conducted an exploratory factor analysis to assess their unidimensionality. In an effort to test the construct validity of the instruments, a principal component factor analysis was conducted with Varimax rotation. The items correspond well to each singular factor, demonstrating a high degree of convergent validity. As the factor loadings for a variable (or factor) are higher than the factor loadings for the other variables, the instrument's discriminant validity is shown to be clear. Each factor was extracted as expected, which explained 70.97, 66.321, and 52.97 percent, respectively, of the total variance each with eigen values greater than 1.000. The internal consistency reliability of the variables was evaluated by computing Cronbach's alphas. The Cronbach's alpha values of the variables, which ranged from 0.717 to 0.950, were all securely over 0.700, which is satisfactory. The reliability and validity of the research variables are all, therefore, considered acceptable. The effects of dependence were assessed using a regression analysis. The Pearson correlations were calculated for the variables, measured by interval or ratio scales. Potential multicollinearity among the antecedents was evaluated prior to the multiple regression analysis, as some of the variables were significantly correlated with others (e.g., direct service and indirect service). Although several variables show the evidence of significant correlations, their tolerance values range between 0.334 and 0.613, thereby demonstrating that multicollinearity is not a likely threat to the parameter estimates. Checking some basic assumptions for the regression analyses, we decided to conduct multiple regression analyses and moderated regression analyses to test the given hypotheses. The results of the regression analyses indicate that the regression model is significant at p < 0.001 (F = 44.260), and that the predictors of the research model explain 42.6 percent of the total variance. Hypotheses 1, 2, and 3 address the relationships between the dependence of the incubated firms and the business incubating services. Business infrastructure service, direct service, and indirect service are all significantly related with dependence (β = 0.300, p < 0.001; β = 0.230, p < 0.001; β = 0.226, p < 0.001), thus supporting Hypotheses 1, 2, and 3. When the incubating period is the moderator and dependence is the dependent variable, the addition of the interaction terms with the antecedents to the regression equation yielded a significant increase in R2 (F change = 2.789, p < 0.05). In particular, direct service and indirect service exert different effects on dependence. Hence, the results support Hypotheses 5 and 6. This study provides several strategies and specific calls to action for BICs, based on our empirical findings. Business infrastructure service has more effect on the firm's dependence than the other two services. The introduction of an additional high charge rate for a graduated but allowed to stay in the BIC is a basic and legitimate condition for the BIC to control the firm's dependence. We detected the differential effects of direct and indirect services on the firm's dependence. The firms with long incubating period are more sensitive to indirect service positively, and more sensitive to direct service negatively, when assessing their levels of dependence. This implies that BICs must develop a strategy on the basis of a firm's incubating period. Last but not least, it would be valuable to discover other important variables that influence the firm's dependence in the future studies. Moreover, future studies to explain the independence of startup companies in BICs would also be valuable.

Survival Analysis for White Non-Hispanic Female Breast Cancer Patients

  • Khan, Hafiz Mohammad Rafiqullah;Saxena, Anshul;Gabbidon, Kemesha;Stewart, Tiffanie Shauna-Jeanne;Bhatt, Chintan
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.15 no.9
    • /
    • pp.4049-4054
    • /
    • 2014
  • Background: Race and ethnicity are significant factors in predicting survival time of breast cancer patients. In this study, we applied advanced statistical methods to predict the survival of White non-Hispanic female breast cancer patients, who were diagnosed between the years 1973 and 2009 in the United States (U.S.). Materials and Methods: Demographic data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were used for the purpose of this study. Nine states were randomly selected from 12 U.S. cancer registries. A stratified random sampling method was used to select 2,000 female breast cancer patients from these nine states. We compared four types of advanced statistical probability models to identify the best-fit model for the White non-Hispanic female breast cancer survival data. Three model building criterion were used to measure and compare goodness of fit of the models. These include Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC). In addition, we used a novel Bayesian method and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique to determine the posterior density function of the parameters. After evaluating the model parameters, we selected the model having the lowest DIC value. Using this Bayesian method, we derived the predictive survival density for future survival time and its related inferences. Results: The analytical sample of White non-Hispanic women included 2,000 breast cancer cases from the SEER database (1973-2009). The majority of cases were married (55.2%), the mean age of diagnosis was 63.61 years (SD = 14.24) and the mean survival time was 84 months (SD = 35.01). After comparing the four statistical models, results suggested that the exponentiated Weibull model (DIC= 19818.220) was a better fit for White non-Hispanic females' breast cancer survival data. This model predicted the survival times (in months) for White non-Hispanic women after implementation of precise estimates of the model parameters. Conclusions: By using modern model building criteria, we determined that the data best fit the exponentiated Weibull model. We incorporated precise estimates of the parameter into the predictive model and evaluated the survival inference for the White non-Hispanic female population. This method of analysis will assist researchers in making scientific and clinical conclusions when assessing survival time of breast cancer patients.