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Determination of the Optimal Return Period for River Design using Bayes Theory (베이즈 이론을 활용한 적정 하천설계빈도 결정)

  • Ryu, Jae Hee;Lee, Jin-Young;Kim, Ji Eun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.793-800
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    • 2018
  • It is necessary to determine an optimal design frequency for establishing stable flood control against frequent flood disasters. Depending on the importance of river and regional characteristics, design return periods are suggested from at least 50 years up to 200 years for river design. However, due to the wide range of applications, it is not desirable to reflect the geographical and flood control characteristics of river. In this study, Bayes theory was applied to seven evaluation factors to determine the optimal design return period of rivers in Chungcheongnam-do; urbanization flooded area, watershed area, basin coefficient, slope, water system and stream order, range of backwater effect, abnormal rainfall occurrence frequency. The potential flood damage (PFD) capacity was estimated considering climate change and the appropriate design return period was determined by analyzing the capacity of each district. We compared the design return periods of 382 rivers in Chungcheongnam-do with the existing design return periods. The number of rivers that were upgraded from the existing return period were 65, which have relatively large flooding areas and have large PFDs. Whereas, the number of rivers that were downgraded were 169.

Surface Milling for the Study of Pore Structure in Shale Reservoirs (셰일 저류층 내 공극 구조 연구를 위한 표면 밀링)

  • Park, Sun Young;Choi, Jiyoung;Lee, Hyun Suk
    • Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.419-426
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    • 2020
  • Understanding the pore structure including pore shape and connectivity in unconventional reservoirs is essential to increase the recovery rate of unconventional energy resources such as shale gas and oil. In this study, we found analysis condition to probe the nanoscale pore structure in shale reservoirs using Focused Ion Beam (FIB) and Ion Milling System (IMS). A-068 core samples from Liard Basin are used to probe the pore structure in shale reservoirs. The pore structure is analyzed with different pretreatment methods and analysis condition because each sample has different characteristics. The results show that surface milling by FIB is effective to obtain pore images of several micrometers local area while milling a large-area by IMS is efficient to observe various pore structure in a short time. Especially, it was confirmed that the pore structure of rocks with high content of carbonate minerals and high strength can be observed with milling by IMS. In this study, the analysis condition and process for observing the pore structure in the shale reservoirs is established. Further studies are needed to perform for probing the effect of pore size and shape on the enhancement of shale gas recovery.

Assessment of a fresh submarine groundwater discharge in eastern Jeju Island using analytic seawater intrusion models (해수침투 해석해 기반 제주 동부 담해저 지하수 유출의 정량적 산정)

  • Kim, Il-Hwan;Chang, Sun Woo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.12
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    • pp.1011-1020
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    • 2022
  • Previous studies for the assessment of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) were perfomed for areas where a large amount of SGD was observed. Newly developed assessment methods were proposed that was based on an analytic solution using sharp interface model. The proposed mathematical equations used the existing observed groundwater level and hydrogeological data of Jeju Island as input data. The quantitatively assessed FSGD values were compared to the basin-scale recharge estimation values in Seong-San area in eastern Jeju. As a result of the study, it was estimated that the amount of FSGD in the Seongsan area ranges from about 2.65 to 9.15% of the amount of areal-recharge. Through the analysis of the FSGD combined with the analytic model, it is to be provided as a scientific tool to establish a more reasonable coastal water resource management plan.

Predicting the amount of water shortage during dry seasons using deep neural network with data from RCP scenarios (RCP 시나리오와 다층신경망 모형을 활용한 가뭄시 물부족량 예측)

  • Jang, Ock Jae;Moon, Young Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.121-133
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    • 2022
  • The drought resulting from insufficient rainfall compared to the amount in an ordinary year can significantly impact a broad area at the same time. Another feature of this disaster is hard to recognize its onset and disappearance. Therefore, a reliable and fast way of predicting both the suffering area and the amount of water shortage from the upcoming drought is a key issue to develop a countermeasure of the disaster. However, the available drought scenarios are about 50 events that have been observed in the past. Due to the limited number of events, it is difficult to predict the water shortage in a case where the pattern of a natural disaster is different from the one in the past. To overcome the limitation, in this study, we applied the four RCP climate change scenarios to the water balance model and the annual amount of water shortage from 360 drought events was estimated. In the following chapter, the deep neural network model was trained with the SPEI values from the RCP scenarios and the amount of water shortage as the input and output, respectively. The trained model in each sub-basin enables us to easily and reliably predict the water shortage with the SPEI values in the past and the predicted meteorological conditions in the upcoming season. It can be helpful for decision-makers to respond to future droughts before their onset.

Real-time flood prediction applying random forest regression model in urban areas (랜덤포레스트 회귀모형을 적용한 도시지역에서의 실시간 침수 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun Il;Lee, Yeon Su;Kim, Byunghyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1119-1130
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    • 2021
  • Urban flooding caused by localized heavy rainfall with unstable climate is constantly occurring, but a system that can predict spatial flood information with weather forecast has not been prepared yet. The worst flood situation in urban area can be occurred with difficulties of structural measures such as river levees, discharge capacity of urban sewage, storage basin of storm water, and pump facilities. However, identifying in advance the spatial flood information can have a decisive effect on minimizing flood damage. Therefore, this study presents a methodology that can predict the urban flood map in real-time by using rainfall data of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), the results of two-dimensional flood analysis and random forest (RF) regression model. The Ujeong district in Ulsan metropolitan city, which the flood is frequently occurred, was selected for the study area. The RF regression model predicted the flood map corresponding to the 50 mm, 80 mm, and 110 mm rainfall events with 6-hours duration. And, the predicted results showed 63%, 80%, and 67% goodness of fit compared to the results of two-dimensional flood analysis model. It is judged that the suggested results of this study can be utilized as basic data for evacuation and response to urban flooding that occurs suddenly.

A Study on the Risk Evaluation of Subway Flood Inundation in Urban Area (도심지역 지하철 침수 위험도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kun-Hak Chun;Jong-Cheol Seo ;Hyeon-Gu Choi;Ji-Min Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.83-90
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    • 2023
  • Due to climate change, the occurrence of abnormal rainfall is increasing, and the intensity and scale of damage caused by heavy rain are increasing every year. In addition, as the frequency of heavy rains becomes more frequent, heavy rains often occur continuously, resulting in large flooding damage that has never been seen before in urban area. When near rivers and coastal areas are impermeable areas, the maximum flow increases rapidly as the rainfall intensity increases, so a comprehensive flood risk evaluation is needed considering the characteristics of the basin. In this study, the flood inundation risk evaluation was analyzed by giving scores on evaluation factors as a measure to prevent inundation in subway stations. Through the flood inundation risk evaluation process considering the comprehensive evaluation index, the flood risk evaluation was conducted on five urban railway stations with a large amount of traffic and floating population that had been inundated in the past. It is judged that by comprehensively analyzing this and establishing a inundation risk grade (grade 1 to 4) to establish a flood measure suitable for the risk grade.

Estimation of Mechanical Representative Elementary Volume and Deformability for Cretaceous Granitic Rock Mass: A Case Study of the Gyeongsang Basin, Korea (경상분지 백악기 화강암 암반에 대한 역학적 REV 및 변형특성 추정사례)

  • Um, Jeong-Gi;Ryu, Seongjin
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.59-72
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    • 2022
  • This study employed a 3-D numerical analysis based on the distinct element method to estimate the strength and deformability of a Cretaceous biotite granitic rock mass at Gijang, Busan, Korea. A workflow was proposed to evaluate the scale effect and the representative elementary volume (REV) of mechanical properties for fractured rock masses. Directional strength and deformability parameters such as block strength, deformation modulus, shear modulus, and bulk modulus were estimated for a discrete fracture network (DFN) in a cubic block the size of the REV. The size of the mechanical REV for fractured rock masses in the study area was determined to be a 15 m cube. The mean block strength and mean deformation modulus of the DFN cube block were found to be 52.8% and 57.7% of the intact rock's strength and Young's modulus, respectively. A constitutive model was derived for the study area that describes the linear-elastic and orthotropic mechanical behavior of the rock mass. The model is expected to help evaluate the stability of tunnels and underground spaces through equivalent continuum analysis.

Taxonomic Characteristics of Chironomids Larvae from the Hangang River at the Genus Level. (한강 수계 내 서식하는 깔따구류 유충의 속 수준에서의 분류 형질)

  • Jae-Won Park;Bong-Soon Ko;Hyunsu Yoo;Dongsoo Kong;Ihn-Sil Kwak
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.140-150
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    • 2023
  • The Hangang River* is necessary to manage the water environment of severe pollution due to the high density of residential areas, parks, and agriculture and the large population concentrated there. Benthic macroinvertebrates, such as chironomids larvae, are bioindicator species that reflect environmental changes and are crucial for water quality monitoring. In this study, we investigated morphological characteristics and molecular analysis of the chironomids larvae inhabiting the Hangang River area for water environment surveys. For this research, 20 rivers, lakes, and urban area in the Hangang River basin were selected. Chironomids larvae were collected from July to September 2022, and their appearance and characteristics were identified through morphological identification. In addition, phylogenetic analysis was performed based on the mtCOI gene sequences of the collected chironomids larvae, and identification at the genus level was confirmed. As a result, 32 species and 18 genera of 3 subfamilies of Chironomidae larvae were identified, and Stictochironomus sp. dominated most sites(6 sites). The morphological characteristics of the identified chironomids larvae, such as the mentum, ventromental plate, and antenna, were organized into table and pictorial keys, and a Bayesian inference molecular phylogeny was presented. These results provide basic morphological information for genus-level identification and can be used as fundamental information for water quality management.

Assessment of MODIS Leaf Area Index (LAI) Influence on the Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration of SLURP Model (MODIS 위성영상으로부터 추출된 엽면적지수(LAI)가 SLURP 모형의 Penman-Monteith 증발산량에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • HA, Rim;SHIN, Hyung-Jin;Park, Geun-Ae;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5B
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2008
  • Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important state variable while simulating daily streamflow in hydrological models. In the estimation of ET, for example, when using FAO Penman Monteith equation, the LAI (Leaf Area Index) value reflecting the conditions of vegetation generally affects considerably. Recently in evaluating the vegetation condition as a fixed quantity, the remotely sensed LAI from MODIS satellite data is available, and the time series values of spatial LAI coupled with land use classes are utilized for ET evaluation. Four years (2001-2004) of MODIS LAI was prepared for the evaluation of Penman Monteith ET in the continuous hydrological model, SLURP (Semi-distributed Land Use-based Runoff Processes). The model was applied for simulating the dam inflow of Chungju watershed ($6661.3km^2$) located in the upstream of Han river basin. For four years (2001-2004) dam inflow data and meteorological data, the model was calibrated and verified using MODIS LAI data. The average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.66. The 4 years watershed average Penman Monteith ETs of deciduous, coniferous, and mixed forest were 639.1, 422.4, and 631.6 mm for average MODIS LAI values of 3.64, 3.50, and 3.63 respectively.

Macrobenthic Faunal Assemblages on the Soft-Bottoms around Dokdo in the East Sea, Korea (한국 동해 독도 주변 천해 및 사면해역의 대형저서동물군집)

  • Choi, Jin-Woo;Hyun, Sang-Min;Kim, Dong-Sung;Kim, Woong-Seo
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.429-442
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    • 2002
  • The faunal assembalges of macrobenthos and their habitat conditions on the soft-bottoms around Dokdo(Dok Island) was investigated using a box corer and a van Veen grab in Sept. 1999 and May 2000. The sediments in the slope sites were composed of sand particles and those in Ullneung Basin were mud. The sediments in the shelf sites were in the range of fine to medium sand. The organic content of the slope sediments was in the range of 1 to 2%. The macrobenthos occurred at the slope sites represented by 15faunal groups belonging to 8 phyla, and the major faunal group was polychaetous annelids. They comprised ca. 80.6% in slope sites, and 84.8% in shelf sites. Dominant species in the slope were Exogone verugera(40.9%), Cossura longocirrata (8.4%), Tharyx sp. (6.6%), Scalibregma inflatum (4.9%), Aedicira sp. (4.7%), Aricidea ramosa (3.8%), and Sigambra tentaculata (3.7%). Dominant species in the shelf were Chone sp. (49.3%), Tharyx sp. (18.4%), Ophelina acuminata (6.7%), Chaetozone setosa (3.8%), Glycera sp. (2.6%), and Aedicira sp. (2.4%). The mean densities of macrobenthos in the slope and shelf area were $2,028\;ind./m^2$ and $456\;ind./m^2$, respectively. The trophic composition of benthic polychaete worms in the slope area was different from that in shallow shelf area: surface deposit feeding worms were most abundant in slope area whereas filter feeding worms in shelf area. According to the cluster analysis and MDS plots, the spatial distribution of macrobenthos in Dokdo slope region was related with the sediment properties such as particle size and organic content. In the case of vertical distribution of macrobenthos in slope sites, most faunas concentrated in the upper sediment layer within 2cm depth.