• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.785-809
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• 2014

In this paper, an Adaptive nerou-based inference system (ANFIS) is being used for the prediction of shear strength of high strength concrete (HSC) beams without stirrups. The input parameters comprise of tensile reinforcement ratio, concrete compressive strength and shear span to depth ratio. Additionally, 122 experimental datasets were extracted from the literature review on the HSC beams with some comparable cross sectional dimensions and loading conditions. A comparative analysis has been carried out on the predicted shear strength of HSC beams without stirrups via the ANFIS method with those from the CEB-FIP Model Code (1990), AASHTO LRFD 1994 and CSA A23.3 - 94 codes of design. The shear strength prediction with ANFIS is discovered to be superior to CEB-FIP Model Code (1990), AASHTO LRFD 1994 and CSA A23.3 - 94. The predictions obtained from the ANFIS are harmonious with the test results not accounting for the shear span to depth ratio, tensile reinforcement ratio and concrete compressive strength; the data of the average, variance, correlation coefficient and coefficient of variation (CV) of the ratio between the shear strength predicted using the ANFIS method and the real shear strength are 0.995, 0.014, 0.969 and 11.97%, respectively. Taking a look at the CV index, the shear strength prediction shows better in nonlinear iterations such as the ANFIS for shear strength prediction of HSC beams without stirrups.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.84-93
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• 2018

In this paper, we propose an Elman recurrent neural network to predict and analyze a time series of power energy consumption. To this end, we consider the volatility of the time series and apply the sample variance and the detrended fluctuation analyses to the volatilities. We demonstrate that there exists a correlation in the time series of the volatilities, which suggests that the power consumption time series contain a non-negligible amount of the non-linear correlation. Based on this finding, we adopt the Elman recurrent neural network as the model for the prediction of the power consumption. As the simplest form of the recurrent network, the Elman network is designed to learn sequential or time-varying pattern and could predict learned series of values. The Elman network has a layer of "context units" in addition to a standard feedforward network. By adjusting two parameters in the model and performing the cross validation, we demonstrated that the proposed model predicts the power consumption with the relative errors and the average errors in the range of 2%~5% and 3kWh~8kWh, respectively. To further confirm the experimental results, we performed two types of the cross validations designed for the time series data. We also support the validity of the model by analyzing the multi-step forecasting. We found that the prediction errors tend to be saturated although they increase as the prediction time step increases. The results of this study can be used to the energy management system in terms of the effective control of the cross usage of the electric and the gas energies.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.59-71
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• 2014

Purpose - In recent years, many firms have attempted various approaches to cope with the continual increase of aviation transportation. The previous research into freight charge forecasting models has focused on regression analyses using a few influence factors to calculate the future price. However, these approaches have limitations that make them difficult to apply into practice: They cannot respond promptly to small price changes and their predictive power is relatively low. Therefore, the current study proposes a freight charge-forecasting model using time series data instead a regression approach. The main purposes of this study can thus be summarized as follows. First, a proper model for freight charge using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, which is mainly used for time series forecast, is presented. Second, a modified ARIMA model for freight charge prediction and the standard process of determining freight charge based on the model is presented. Third, a straightforward freight charge prediction model for practitioners to apply and utilize is presented. Research design, data, and methodology - To develop a new freight charge model, this study proposes the ARIMAC(p,q) model, which applies time difference constantly to address the correlation coefficient (autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function) problem as it appears in the ARIMA(p,q) model and materialize an error-adjusted ARIMAC(p,q). Cargo Account Settlement Systems (CASS) data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) are used to predict the air freight charge. In the modeling, freight charge data for 72 months (from January 2006 to December 2011) are used for the training set, and a prediction interval of 23 months (from January 2012 to November 2013) is used for the validation set. The freight charge from November 2012 to November 2013 is predicted for three routes - Los Angeles, Miami, and Vienna - and the accuracy of the prediction interval is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Results - The result of the proposed model shows better accuracy of prediction because the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 10% and the MAPE of ARIMAC is 11.2% for the L.A. route. For the Miami route, the proposed model also shows slightly better accuracy in that the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 3.5%, while that of ARIMAC is 3.7%. However, for the Vienna route, the accuracy of ARIMAC is better because the MAPE of ARIMAC is 14.5% and the MAPE of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model is 15.7%. Conclusions - The accuracy of the error-adjusted ARIMAC model appears better when a route's freight charge variance is large, and the accuracy of ARIMA is better when the freight charge variance is small or has a trend of ascent or descent. From the results, it can be concluded that the ARIMAC model, which uses moving averages, has less predictive power for small price changes, while the error-adjusted ARIMAC model, which uses error correction, has the advantage of being able to respond to price changes quickly.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.187-196
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• 1999

The increasing interest in the use of Automated Speed Enforcement (ASE) systems in Korea enables to enforce speed violation by National Police Agency. We have analyzed the mechanism of ASE systems on traffic safety throughout Korea. 1 The data collected on a 2km road-section of each 32 ASE stations during one rear period indicate significant safety improvement. The results were (a) a decrease in the total number of accidents of 28%, (b) a decrease in the number of fatalities of 60%. 2. The study also that ASE systems are effective to reduce average speed, speed variance, and short headway. 3. Based on the operational data collected at 15 locations, an aggregate safety prediction model is proposed as a multiple regressions form. The primary operational variables that appear to affect the frequencies of accident are : average speed, speed variance, and the number of vehicles exceeding 30km/h of posted speed limit.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.66 no.2
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• pp.366-373
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• 2024

This study aims to estimate the connectedness rating (CR) of Korean swine breeding herds. Using 104,380 performance and 83,200 reproduction records from three swine breeds (Yorkshire, Landrace and Duroc), the CR was estimated for two traits: average daily gain (ADG) and number born alive (NBA) in eight breeding herds in the Republic of Korea (hereafter, Korea). The average CR for ADG in the Yorkshire breed ranges from 1.32% to 28.5% depending on the farm. The average CR for NBA in the Yorkshire herd ranges from 0% to 12.79%. A total of 60% of Yorkshire and Duroc herds satisfied the preconditions suggested for genetic evaluation among the herds. The precondition for the genetic evaluation of CR for ADG, as a productive trait, was higher than 3% and that of NBA, as a reproductive trait, was higher than 1.5%. The ADG in the Yorkshire herds showed the highest average CR. However, the average CR of ADG in the Landrace herds was lower than the criterion of the precondition. The prediction error variance of the difference (PEVD) was employed to assess the validation of the CR, as PEVDs exhibit fluctuations that are coupled with the CR across the herds. A certain degree of connectedness is essential to estimate breeding value comparisons between pig herds. This study suggests that it is possible to evaluate the genetic performance together for ADG and NBA in the Yorkshire herds since the preconditions were satisfied for these four herds. It is also possible to perform a joint genetic analysis of the ADG records of all Duroc herds since the preconditions were also satisfied. This study provides new insight into understanding the genetic connectedness of Korean pig breeding herds. CR could be utilized to accelerate the genetic progress of Korean pig breeding herds.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.249-261
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• 2010

Long-term forecasting of seasonal time series is critical in many applications such as planning business strategies and resolving possible problems of a business company. Unlike the traditional approach that depends solely on dynamic models, Li and Hinich (2002) introduced a combination of stochastic dynamic modeling with filter bank approach for forecasting seasonal patterns using highly coherent(High-C) waveforms. We modify the filter selection and forecasting procedure on wavelet domain to be more feasible and compare the resulting predictor with one that obtained from the wavelet variance estimation method. An improvement over other seasonal pattern extraction and forecasting methods based on such as wavelet scalogram, Holt-Winters, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA) is shown in terms of the prediction error. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated by a simulation study and an application to the real stock price data.

• The korean journal of orthodontics
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• v.51 no.6
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• pp.397-406
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• 2021

Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of self-ligating brackets (SBs) and other factors that influence orthodontic treatment outcomes. Methods: This two-armed cohort study included consecutively treated patients in a private practice. The patients were asked to choose between SBs and conventional brackets (CBs); if any patient did not have a preference, he or she was randomly allocated to the CB or SB group. All patients were treated using an identical archwire sequence. Evaluated parameters were as follows: treatment duration, number of bracket failures, poor oral hygiene, poor elastic wear, extraction, use of orthodontic mini-implants (OMI), OMI failure, American Board of Orthodontics (ABO) Discrepancy Index (DI), arch length discrepancy, and ABO Cast-Radiograph Evaluation (CRE) score. Stepwise regression analysis was performed to generate the equation for prediction of the CRE. Results: The final sample comprised 134 patients with an average age of 22.73 years. The average DI, CRE, and treatment duration were 21.81, 14.25, and 28.63 months, respectively. Analysis of covariance showed a significant difference in CRE between the CB and SB groups after adjusting for the effects of confounding variables. Stepwise regression analysis using four variables, namely extraction, SB use, poor elastic wear, and additional appliance use, could explain only 25.2% of the variance in the CRE. Conclusions: Although the CRE was significantly better for CBs than for SBs, the clinical significance of this result seems to be limited. Extraction, SB use, poor elastic wear, and additional appliance use may have significant effects on treatment outcomes.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.395-403
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• 2002

In the third phase of the response surface methods, the first-order model is assumed and the curvature of the response surface is checked with a fractional factorial design augmented by centre runs. We further assume that a true model is a quadratic polynomial. To choose an optimal design, Box and Draper(1959) suggested the use of an average mean squared error (AMSE), an average of MSE of y(x) over the region of interest R. The AMSE can be partitioned into the average prediction variance (APV) and average squared bias (ASB). Since AMSE is a function of design moments, region moments and a standardized vector of parameters, it is not possible to select the design that minimizes AMSE. As a practical alternative, Box and Draper(1959) proposed minimum bias design which minimize ASB and showed that factorial design points are shrunk toward the origin for a minimum bias design. In this paper we propose a robust AMSE design which maximizes the minimum efficiency of the design with respect to a standardized vector of parameters.

• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.66-75
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• 2000

From the traffic analysis, and model constructions and verifications for speed prediction on the freeway ramp junctions with 70mph speed limit, the following results were obtained : ⅰ) The traffic flow distribution showed a big difference depending on the time periods. Especially, more traffic flows were concentrated on the freeway junctions in the morning peak period when compared with the afternoon peak period. ⅱ) The occupancy distribution was also shown to be varied by a big difference depending on the time periods. Especially, the occupancy in the morning peak period showed over 100% increase when compared with the 24hours average occupancy, and the occupancy in the afternoon peak period over 25% increase when compared with the same occupancy. ⅲ) The speed distribution was not shown to have a big difference depending on the time periods. Especially, the speed in the morning peak period showed 10mph decrease when compared with the 24hours'average speed, but the speed did not show a big difference in the afternoon peak period. ⅳ) The analyses of variance showed a high explanatory power between the speed predictive models(SPM) constructed and the variables used, especially the upstream speed. ⅴ) The analysis of correlation for verifying the speed predictive models(SPM) constructed on the ramp junctions were shown to have a high correlation between observed data and predicted data. Especially, the correlation coefficients showed over 0.95 excluding the unstable condition on the diverge section. ⅵ) Speed predictive models constructed were shown to have the better results than the HCM models, even if the speed limits on the freeway were different between the HCM models and speed predictive models constructed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 1999.10a
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• pp.111-121
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• 1999

From the traffic analyses, and model constructions and verifications for speed prediction on the freeway ramp junctions with 70mph speed limit, the following results obtained: ⅰ) The traffic flow distribution showed a big difference depending on the time periods. Especially, more traffic flows were concentrated on the freeway junctions in the morning peak period when compared with the afternoon peak period. ⅱ) The occupancy distribution was also shown to be varied by a big difference depending on the time periods. Especially, the occupancy in the morning peak period showed over 100% increase when compared with the 24hours average occupancy, and the occupancy in the afternoon peak period over 25% increase when compared with the same occupancy.ⅲ) The speed distribution was not shown to have a big difference depending on the time periods. Especially, the speed in the morning peak period shown 10mph decrease when compared with the 24hours' average speed, but the speed did not show a big difference in the afternoon peak period.ⅳ) The analyses of variance showed a high explanatory power between the speed predictive models(SPM) constructed and the variables used, especially the upstream speed. ⅴ) The analysis of correlation for verifying the speed predictive models(SPM) constructed on the ramp junctions were shown to have a high correlation between observed data and predicted data. Especially, the correlation coefficients showed over 0.95 excluding the unstable condition on the diverge sectionⅵ) Speed predictive models constructed were shown to have the better results than the HCM models, even if the speed limits on the freeway were different between the HCM models and speed predictive models constructed.