• Title/Summary/Keyword: Autoregressive-cross-regressive model

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Development of the Autoregressive and Cross-Regressive Model for Groundwater Level Prediction at Muan Coastal Aquifer in Korea (전남 무안 해안 대수층에서의 지하수위 예측을 위한 자기교차회귀모형 구축)

  • Kim, Hyun Jung;Yeo, In Wook
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2014
  • Coastal aquifer in Muan, Jeonnam, has experienced heavy seawater intrusion caused by the extraction of a substantial amount of groundwater for the agricultural purpose throughout the year. It was observed that groundwater level dropped below sea level due to heavy pumping during a dry season, which could accelerate seawater intrusion. Therefore, water level needs to be monitored and managed to prevent further seawater intrusion. The purpose of this study is to develop the autoregressive-cross-regressive (ARCR) models that can predict the present or future groundwater level using its own previous values and pumping events. The ARCR model with pumping and water level data of the proceeding five hours (i.e., the model order of five) predicted groundwater level better than that of the model orders of ten and twenty. This was contrary to expectation that higher orders do increase the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) as a measure of the model's goodness. It was found that the ARCR model with order five was found to make a good prediction of next 48 hour groundwater levels after the start of pumping with $R^2$ higher than 0.9.

Longitudinal relationship between depression and parents' child-rearing attitudes for adolescent (부모의 양육방식이 성별 청소년의 우울에 미치는 영향)

  • Yee, Nan Hee;Song, Tae-Min
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.45-55
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: This study is aimed at exploring the temporal developmental relationship of adolescent depression and parents' child-rearing attitudes, and to examine gender differences in the relationship. The middle school students of the 2011-2013 1st Korea Children and Youth Panel data were used for analysis and the sample consisted of 2.073 individuals. Methods: Research questions were answered through the Latent Growth Model and Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Model. Results: As the results of the Latent Growth Model show, adolescent depression declines as time goes by and there are differences in the depression felt by individuals. An autoregressive cross-lagged model and multiple group analysis were executed by gender. The results show significant gender differences in the relationship between depression and Parents' child-rearing attitudes. Parental neglect has shown differences influencing adolescents depression between males and females. However, in case of parental abuse, no differences between males and females were observed. Conclusion: The results of this study imply that the policy on depression should be carefully considered when preparing for interventions targeting adolescents by gender.

A Study on the Relationship between Game Addiction and Social Stigma of the Youth outside school (학교 밖 청소년의 게임중독과 사회적 낙인감에 관한 상호관계 연구)

  • Moon, Jin-Young;Park, Ju-Won;Lee, Chang-Moon
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.343-355
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between game addiction and social stigma of adolescents outside school. After examining the previous research focusing on the Public stigma & Self-stigma theory, We intended to examine how game addiction and social stigma affect each other over time, and the time causal relationship between the both. Using youth outside school panel 3rd, 4th, 5th data, This study analyzed the relationship between game addiction and social stigma of adolescents with school interruption longitudinally. The research method was analyzed by autoregressive cross-lagged model using two variables such as game addiction and social stigma using Amos25 program. The results showed that game addiction did not significantly affect social stigma at the next time, but social stigma had a significant effect on game addiction at the next time. Game addiction and social stigma have a strong auto-regressive effect, and the degree remains constant over time. Accordingly, this study suggested social co-prosperity, support from the local community, multidisciplinary viewpoints and cooperation between the public and private sectors.

A Causal Analysis of Suicidal Impulse in the Context of Parents, Friends, Teachers and Community Support: Gender Difference (부모, 친구, 교사, 지역사회 지지와 청소년의 자살충동간 인과관계 분석 : 성별 차이를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Hyun-Ju;Roh, Ja-Eun
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.135-162
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    • 2011
  • Given the 4 contexts-parents, friends, teachers and community- of adolescents, this research verified the casual relationships between each contextual support and the suicidal impulse, and the gender difference. The 4-year longitudinal data(KYPS) collected from 3,697 adolescents were used in this study. Using the Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Model, the suicidal impulse was consistently present from the 3rd grade in middle school to the 3rd grade in high school with significant stability. Gender differences were founded in the effect of parental support among the 3rd grade in middle school. Also the negative effect of friends' support on the suicidal impulse among the first grade high school students. The effects were more stronger for girls than boys. Previous supports by teachers and community had no significant effects on later suicidal impulses. These results suggest that the study of suicidal impulse needs to examine the complex support system of multiple context layers.

Longitudinal Analysis on the Reciprocal Relationship between Depression and Marital Satisfaction among Older Couples (노년기 부부의 우울과 부부관계만족도 간의 종단적 관계)

  • Heo, Sun-Young;Ha, Jung-Hwa
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.421-444
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this research is to examine the reciprocal relationships between depression and marital satisfaction among older couples. For longitudinal dyadic analysis, this study sets up a research model based on the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model, the Common Fate Model, and Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Model. Data came from four annual waves from the 10th year (2015) to the 13th year (2018) of the Korean Welfare Panel Survey and the final sample comprised a total of 1,383 married couples over 60 years of age in 2015. Structural Equation Modeling identified the reciprocal relationship between depression and marital satisfaction among older couples, with higher marital satisfaction of older couples leading to lower depression of husbands' and wives', and with higher depression of husbands' and wives' inducing lower marital satisfaction of the couples. Thus, this study suggested that longitudinal interplay between depression and marital satisfaction can lead to a vicious cycle. Based on these findings, the need to intervene at both the individual level and the couple level was discussed in order to reduce depression and improve marital satisfaction.