• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.126-132
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• 2015

Technology forecasting is about understanding a status of a specific technology in the future, based on the current data of the technology. It is useful when planning technology management strategies. These days, it is common for countries, companies, and researchers to establish R&D directions and strategies by utilizing experts' opinions. However, this qualitative method of technology forecasting is costly and time consuming since it requires to collect a variety of opinions and analysis from many experts. In order to deal with these limitations, quantitative method of technology forecasting is being studied to secure objective forecast result and help R&D decision making process. This paper suggests a methodology of technology forecasting based on quantitative analysis. The methodology consists of data collection, principal component analysis, and technology forecasting by logistic regression, which is one of the data mining techniques. In this research, patent documents related to autonomous vehicle are collected. Then, the texts from patent documents are extracted by text mining technique to construct an appropriate form for analysis. After principal component analysis, logistic regression is performed by using principal component score. On the basis of this result, it is possible to analyze R&D development situation and technology forecasting.