• Title/Summary/Keyword: Asian Financial Crisis

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What Exacerbates the Probability of Business Closure in the Private Sector During the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from World Bank Enterprise Survey Data

  • PHAM, Thi Bich Duyen;NGUYEN, Hoang Phong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.69-79
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of the study is to look into the likelihood of private sector enterprises going bankrupt due to COVID-19 pandemic-related issues. The data for this study was taken from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey, which was intended to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the business sector. This study uses the Ordinal Logit Method to analyze the model with dependent variables having ordinal values. The determinants reflect business performance, innovation, business relationships, and government support. According to the estimation results, a lower probability of business closures, illiquidity, and payment delays are found in businesses that maintain sales growth, operating hours, temporary workers, product portfolio, consumer demand, and input supply. Meanwhile, the increase in online business activities and receiving support from financial institutions and the government do not help businesses reduce the risk. Moreover, higher survival is found in manufacturing and developing countries. This implies the fragility of businesses in the retail and service sectors, especially for mega-enterprises in developed countries. In addition, the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses in Europe and West Asia is less severe than in other regions. The results imply policies to support the private sector during the pandemic, such as increasing labor market flexibility or rapidly implementing supportive policies.

The Impact of Global Uncertainty Shocks on Macroeconomics: The Case of Vietnam

  • TRAN, Ha Hong;NGUYEN, Vinh Thi Hong;TRINH, Nam Hoang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.263-269
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    • 2022
  • The global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2019 along with the slow and unstable recovery of the global economy have raised concerns about the impact of global uncertainty on the macroeconomics of the countries. The paper used the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model to examine the impact of global uncertainty shocks on Vietnam's economy from the period 2008-2022. We found that Vietnam's output dropped following the shock of global uncertainty, the peak was in the third month, and lasted for one year. Inflation in Vietnam had a rapid downturn in the first month, peaked in the seventh month, and took a long time to cease. When the economy experienced the shock of increased global uncertainty, Vietnam's policy interest rate was adjusted downward. Additionally, we included a long-term interest rate to consider the overall impact of monetary policy into account. A decreasing trend was also found with this rate. The global uncertainty shock effects acted as the aggregate demand shocks, reducing output and inflation as the uncertainty increases and vice versa, thus monetary policy can be used to regulate Vietnam's economy to deal with negative shocks without the trade-offs between output and inflation as aggregate supply shocks.

Capital Structure of Malaysian Companies: Are They Different During the COVID-19 Pandemic?

  • MOHD AZHARI, Nor Khadijah;MAHMUD, Radziah;SHAHARUDDIN, Sara Naquia Hanim
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.239-250
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    • 2022
  • This study examined the level of capital structure and its determinants of publicly traded companies in Malaysia before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The data for this study was examined using Python Programming Language and time-series financial data from 2,784 quarterly observations in 2019 and 2020. The maximum debt is larger before the COVID-19 period, according to the findings. During the COVID-19 period, short-term debts and total debts have both decreased slightly. However, long-term debts have increased marginally. As a result, this research demonstrates that the capital structure has changed slightly during the COVID-19 period. The findings imply that independent of the capital structure proxies, tangibility, liquidity, and business size had an impact on capital structure in both periods. It was found that profitability had a significant impact on total debts both before and after the COVID-19 crisis. While higher-profit enterprises appear to have lesser short-term debts before the COVID-19 periods, they are also more likely to have lower long-term debts during the COVID-19 periods. Even though growing companies tend to have higher short-term debts and thus total debts during those periods, longterm debts are unaffected by potential growth.

Global Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Monetary Model

  • ZAFAR, Sadaf;KHAN, Muhammad Arshad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.189-201
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    • 2022
  • The study empirically examines the impact of monetary fundamentals along with global oil prices on the Pak-rupee exchange rate using the monthly data over 2001-2020. Employing the cointegrating vector autoregressive with exogenous variables (VARX) and vector error correction model with exogenous variables (VECMX), the study analyzes the impact of domestic monetary fundamentals while considering the foreign variables as weakly exogenous. In order to account for the structural breaks in the data, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root test with two structural breaks has been used (Lee & Strazicich, 2003). The empirical results reveal that the domestic and foreign monetary variables significantly explain the exchange rate movements in Pakistan both in the long run and in the short run. The dynamic properties of the monetary model of exchange rate have been analyzed using the persistence profile analysis and generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs). The results reveal that the responses of shocks to domestic monetary fundamentals are consistent with the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate. Furthermore, being a net oil importer, a rise in global oil prices significantly depreciated the Pak-rupee exchange rate over the period of study. The global financial crisis (GFC) and pandemic (COVID-19) were also found to cause the Pak-rupee exchange rate depreciation.

Strategic Performance Measurement of Knowledge Management in Construction Industry (건설산업 지식경영의 전략적 성과측정 방법 연구)

  • Ko Sung-Kwan;Kim Jae-Jun;Baek Jong-Kun;Kim Dae-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.2 no.3 s.7
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    • pp.45-57
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    • 2001
  • Knowledge management was introduced as a new strategy in many construction companies aiming at paradigm shift since Asian financial Crisis. However, intensive focusing on acquiring and sharing knowledge couldn't keep pace with the primary goal. Increasing financial profits. That is because clear strategic process and performance measurement are absent in time of the introduction of knowledge management. Based on case analysis in domestic construction industry, this research work presents an alternative plan on Balanced Scorecard(BSC) model. The objective of this study is to develop a model of strategic performance measurement in knowledge management by sorting and grasping core operational knowledge, which can draw key performance indicators accompanied by knowledge map from case study.

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Information Spillover Effects among the Stock Markets of China, Taiwan and Hongkon (국제주식시장의 정보전이효과에 관한 연구 : 중국, 대만, 홍콩을 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Seong-Min;Su, Qian;Kang, Sang Hoon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.62-84
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    • 2010
  • Accurate forecasting of volatility is of considerable interest in financial volatility research, particularly in regard to portfolio allocation, option pricing and risk management because volatility is equal to market risk. So, we attempted to delineate a model with good ability to forecast and identified stylized features of volatility, with a focus on volatility persistence or long memory in the Australian futures market. In this context, we assessed the long-memory property in the volatility of index futures contracts using three conditional volatility models, namely the GARCH, IGARCH and FIGARCH models. We found that the FIGARCH model better captures the long-memory property than do the GARCH and IGARCH models. Additionally, we found that the FIGARCH model provides superior performance in one-day-ahead volatility forecasts. As discussed in this paper, the FIGARCH model should prove a useful technique in forecasting the long-memory volatility in the Australian index futures market.

A Study on Supervisor Satisfaction and Work-related Attitudes of Workers: Northern Thailand after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (관리자 만족이 근로자의 직무관련 태도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 2008 국제금융위기 후 태국 북부의 근로자를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Byong Shik
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.183-222
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구의 목적은 2008년 후반에 발생한 국제금융위기에 대응하여 조직 개편을 선택한 기업과 그 기업 내의 근로자들 실태 파악을 하는데 있다. 특히 기업구조조정 명목으로 단행된 해고를 모면한 근로자들 (생존자)의 상태를 그들이 지각하는 각 개인의 관리자에 대한 만족도와 그들의 직무관련태도인 직무만족, 조직적 몰입 그리고 이직 의도 간의 관계 관점에서 살피고자 한다. 관리자에 대한 만족도는 근로자들의 직무 관련 태도 변수와 관련되어 사회적 선행변수로 선택되었으며 직무관련태도는 결과변수로 선택하였다. 본 연구를 통해 생존자들의 조직 내 직무관련태도에 관한 이해를 높이는데 필요한 정보를 표출해내어 그들의 실태를 파악하는데 하나의 목적을 두었으며 그들의 관리자와의 사회적 관계가 그들에게 미치는 영향을 파악하는 것이 또 하나의 목적이라 하겠다. 이상과 같은 관계 파악을 통해 얻은 정보로 관련기업이 단기적으로 성공적인 자립을 하여 장기적으로 경쟁력 있는 조직으로 성장할 수 있는 인적자원전략을 제공하는데 2차적인 목적을 두고 있다. 본 연구는 이상과 같은 목적을 달성하고자 그 유의성이 증명된 현존하는 설문을 활용한 조사기법을 채택하여 실증연구를 하였다. 수집한 자료는 SPSS 17.0과 LISREL 8.5을 사용하여 연구모형과 연구의 가설들을 검증하였다. 연구목적을 달성하고자 채택된 가설들은 기존의 문헌연구를 토대로 세워졌다. 연구대상은 태국 북부지역의 대표도시인 치앙마이 내 관광호텔 종사자들로서 외부적으로는 2008년 국제금융위기와 그에 따른 경제침체, 내부적으로는 극심한 정치적 사회적 불안에 의한 관광객의 급감소와 조직의 자구책으로 행해진 조직재구조 차원에서의 해고를 이겨낸 근로자들, 즉 생존자들이었다. 가설검증을 통해 입증된 연구결과에 의하면 1) 근로자들의 관리자에 대한 만족은 그들의 직무만족, 정서적 조직몰입과 지속적 조직몰입에 영향을 미치는 것으로 검증됐다. 2) 근로자들의 관리자에 대한 만족은 그들의 이직의도에는 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 검증됐다. 3) 근로자들의 직무만족은 그들의 이직의도에 영향을 미치는 것으로 검증되었다. 4) 근로자들의 조직적 몰입과 이직의도 간의 관계에 있어서는 오직 경제적 성격의 지속적 조직몰입만 영향을 미치는 것으로 검증되었다. 이러한 연구 결과는 기존의 타 연구 결과와 기본적인 맥락은 같게 나왔으나 근로자들의 정서적인 면의 부재는 2008년 후반 당시의 독특한 태국의 사회적, 경제적 그리고 문화적 실태를 보여주는 것이 아닌 가 사료된다. 특히 근로자들이 그들의 직장과의 관계와 관련된 의사결정을 가치가 아닌 경제적인 요소에 의존한다는 결과 그리고 상관인 관리자가 이러한 태도에 전혀 영향력을 미치지 못한다는 결과는 전통적으로 감성적이며 집단주의적인 동양적 문화가 지배하리라고 예상했던 태국에서는 이례적인 결과였다. 그러나 관리자들이 그들의 직무만족 그리고 조직적 몰입에 영향을 주며 직무만족이 이직 의도에 영향을 미친다는 결과와 지속적 조직몰입이 이직의도에 영향을 미친다는 결과는 장기적으로 적극적인 관리자 교육을 통해 근로자들을 조직에 정서적으로도 올바르게 안착시키고 긍정적인 구성원으로 존재하면서 조직에 기여할 수 있는 그들의 역할을 기대할 수 있다고 볼 수도 있다. 이 점은 매우 중요한데 그 이유는 해고를 이겨낸 근로자들은 그 조직이 미래를 짊어지는 마지막 기대변수이기 때문이다.

The Recent Evidence of Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Focusing on Ownership Structure, Entry Mode, and Location Choices (아시아 금융위기 이후 일본의 외국인직접투자 변화: 진입모드, 소유구조, 입지선택에 관하여)

  • Park, Young-Ryeol;Kwak, Jooyoung;No, Jung-Hyun
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.3-23
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    • 2011
  • Existing studies have argued that, compared to the 1990s, the Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the 2000s became multi-faceted in terms of investment motivation, ownership structure and entry mode, and diversification strategy. We have conducted a cross-sectional analysis and compared our results with the recent findings. We have found that the Japanese FDI in the mid 2000s became globally focused and regionally diversified. Ownership strategy and entry mode of the Japanese FDI in the Asian countries shows a remarkable shift from joint venture to wholly-owned subsidiary. In contrast, the preference of greenfield investments was observed consistently across regions. It seems that, after the Asian financial crisis, the Japanese firms began to re-optimize global FDI strategy and to regionally differentiate investments.

A Study on the Comovements and Structural Changes of Global Business Cycles using MS-VAR models (MS-VAR 모형을 이용한 글로벌 경기변동의 동조화 및 구조적 변화에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2016
  • We analyzed the international comovements and structural changes in the quarterly real GDP by the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) from 1971(1) to 2016(1). The main results of this study were as follows. First, the business cycle phenomenon that occurs in the models or individual time series in real GDP has been grasped through the MS-VAR models. Unlike previous studies, this study showed the significant comovements, asymmetry and structural changes in the MS-VAR model using a real GDP across countries. Second, even if there was a partial difference, there were remarkable structural changes in the economy contraction regime(recession), such as 1988(2) ending the global oil shock crisis and 2007(3) starting the global financial crisis by the MS-VAR model. Third, large-scale structural changes were generated in the economic expansion and/or contraction regime simultaneously among countries. We found that the second world oil shocks that occurred after the first global oil shocks of 1973 and 1974 were the main reasons that caused the large-scale comovements of the international real GDP among countries. In addition, the spillover between Korea and 5 countries has been weak during the Asian currency crisis from 1997 to 1999, but there was strong transmission between Korea and 5 countries at the end of 2007 including the period of the global financial crisis. Fourth, it showed characteristics that simultaneous correlation appeared to be high due to the country-specific shocks generated for each country with the regime switching using real GDP since 1973. Thus, we confirmed that conclusions were consistent with a number of theoretical and empirical evidence available, and the macro-economic changes were mainly caused by the global shocks for the past 30 years. This study found that the global business cycles were due to large-scale asymmetric shocks in addition to the general changes, and then showed the main international comovements and/or structural changes through country-specific shocks.

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Legal Research about the Public Offering of Director Compensation (이사보수의 공개에 관한 법적 연구)

  • Kwon, Sang-Ro
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.169-177
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    • 2012
  • Due to the influences of global financial crisis, countries are putting their efforts on the enhancement of appropriateness and transparency of director compensation. In several countries including Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy, listed companies and financial institutions in certain levels make public announcement for compensations of individual directors, not the averages. Recently, even Asian countries including China, Hong Kong, and Singapore are introducing individual director compensation public announcement policies. On the other hand, in cases of companies, which must submit annual reports, under current Korean capital market laws and enforcement ordinances, they are obligated to mention 'total wage paid to all executives in that business year' on the annual report, but does not have to mention individual wages of each executive. About this, at the 17th national assembly, revised bill for the Securities and Exchange Act for companies to mention wages of each executive. The financial world is opposing to open individual director compensation to the public as they concern about the shrinking of outstanding human resources recruitment, breach of corporate confidence, privacy invasion, deterioration of labor-management relations, and downfall of the executive's management will as director compensation will be standardized downward; however, if public opening of individual director compensation is forced, domestic companies will prepare more objective and rational standards when they calculate director compensations, and moreover, it will prevent arbitrary intervention of dominant shareholders. Therefore, to clearly and efficiently control director compensation, we need regulations for obligating public opening of individual director compensation.