• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.49 no.2
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• pp.4-19
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• 2016

Jangkei(狀啓) made to the Royal Court by Yi Sun-sin during the Japanese invasions of Korea is handed down under the names of Jangcho(狀草), Keicho(啓草), Keibon(啓本) and others depending on copying patterns of those times and later times as it was copied out by a third person. In particular, "YimjinJangcho(壬辰狀草)" which Yi drew up during his service as the director of the naval forces in Jeolla Jwasooyeong is known as the most popular Jangkei. "ChungMinKongKeicho" which has been re-located recently after loss is a national treasure level cultural property as valuable as "YimjinJangcho" and should be treated as a model of Yi Sun-sin's other Jangkeis by next generations. As of now, however it is not confirmed if it is a totally new book related to Yi Sun-sin or is supplementary to the lost Jangkei, this study decided to ascertain relevant information through a bibliographic discussion on the question. "Chungmin(忠愍)" was the title that was used after the death of Yi Sun-sin, and "ChungMinKongKeicho" was completed when Jangkei was copied in 1662. 12 books that would not be found in YimjinJangcho are included in the book and such books are also present in the Jangkei supplement which has been known lost so far. What should be especially focused on here is that the forms and contents of these (11) photographs that Japanese shot from "ChungMinKongKeicho" in 1928 turned out to be completely identical to those of the original copy. The point that Korean History Compilation Committee added the 12 books to Jangkei as referring to the book as "One Keicho(啓草) partially copied(抄寫) in separation" and that Cho Sung-do categorized the 12 books into a supplement and others can be solid proofs to make the Jangkei supplement called "ChungMinKongKeicho". In terms of "ChungMooKongKeicho", since it consists of 62 books in total, it is not reasonable to see the book as Jangkei supplement which has the extra 12 more books for itself. "ChungMooKongKeibon" in "ChungMooKongYusa" was written with a total of 16 books. In the body, Yidumun is only clearly present, and the three books in the later part are same with the original copy of "ChungMooKongKeicho". "YimjinJangcho" by Korean History Compilation Committee has been the only book in which Yidumun was observed so far but now, it is assumed that the publication date of "ChungMooKongKeibon" goes before that of the former. The counterargument to the opinion that "ChungMinKongKeicho" is the supplement to Jangkei is based on Lee Eun-sang's comment "One page of a log in the Jangkei copy supplement." At first Seol Ui-sik introduced a piece photo of the rough draft of "MoosulIlki" in a drawing form through "Nanjung Ilkicho by Yi Sun-sin" in 1953. Lee Eun-sang also added two pages of the handwritten Yilkicho in the Jangkeichobon supplement to "MoosulIlki" and for the second time, the phrase "One page of a log written during the last 10 days after the Jangkei copy supplement" and "Supplement" were used. Those views are originated from the comment "One photograph of the rough draft of "MoosulIlki"" which Seol Ui-sik introduced without knowledge of the exact source. Lee Eun-sang said, "One page of a log in the Jangkei copy supplement" because Lee mistook "ChungMooKongYusa" for a book related to Jangkei. Since it is the wrong argument different from the actual situation of the original copy, if it has to be corrected, it should be rephrased "One page of a log in ChungMooKongYusa." After all, the source of the counterargument is the mistake because there has never been the Jangkei supplement with one page of a log included. All the Jangkeis other than "YimjinJangcho" can be said as the Jangkei supplements but still, they are separated from the other Jangkeis for the extra 12 more books are present in the commonly-called Jangkei supplement. Due to that reason, the argument on how "ChungMinKongKeicho" with the 12 books added is the popular Jangkei supplement should be considered more reasonable.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.7
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• pp.101-134
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• 1995

Article 3 Paragraph 1 of the Warsaw Convention regulates the requirements of passenger tickets, Article 4 Paragraph 3, the requirements of baggage tickets, Article 8, the requirements of airway bills. In this article the writer has discussed the legal nature of the documents of air carriage, such as air waybills, passenger tickets and baggage checks. Further, the writer has also discussed several issues relating to the use of the documents of air carriage under the Warsaw Convention. Article 3 Paragraph 2, as well as Article 4 Paragraph 4 and 9 provides that the carrier shall not be entitled to avail himself of the provisions of the Convention which evade or limit his liability. In particular, the Montreal Agreement of 1966 provides that the notification on the carrier's liability in passenger ticket should be printed in more than 10 point type size with contrasting ink colors. However, another question is whether the carrier shall not be entitled to avail himself of the liability limit under the Convention in case the type size is below 10 points. The Convention does not specify the type size of certain parts in passenger tickets and only provides that the carrier shall not be entitled to avail himself of liability limit, when a carrier fails to deliver the ticket to passenger. However, since the delivery of passenger tickets is to provide an opportunity for passengers to recognize the liability limit under the Convention and to map out a subsequent measures, the carrier who fails to give this opportunity shall not be entitled to avail himself of the liability limit under the Convention. But some decisions argue that when the notice on the carrier's liability limit is presented in a fine print in a hardly noticeable place, the carrier shall not be entitled to avail himself under the Convention. Meanwhile, most decisions declare that regardless of the type size, the carrier is entitled to avail himself of liability limit of the provisions of the Convention. The reason is that neither the Warsaw Convention nor the Montreal Agreement stipulate that the carrier is deprived from the right to avail himself of liability limit of the provisions of the Convention when violating the notice requirement. In particular, the main objective of the Montreal Agreement is not on the notice of liability limit but on the increase of it. The latest decisons also maintain the same view. This issue seems to have beeen settled on the occasion of Elisa Chan, et al. vs. Korean Airlines Ltd. The U.S. Supreme Court held that the type size of passenger ticket can not be a target of controversy since it is not required by law, after a cautious interpretation of the Warsaw Convention and the Montreal Agreement highlighting the fact that no grounds for that are found both in the Warsaw Convention and the Montreal Agreement. Now the issue of type size can hardly become any grounds for the carrier not to exclude himself from the liability limit. In this regard, any challenge to raise issue on type size seems to be defeated. The same issue can be raised in both airway bills and baggage tickets. But this argument can be raised only to the tranportation where the original Convention is applied. This creates no problem under the Convention revised by the Hague Protocol, because the Hague Protocol does not require any information on weight, bulk, size, and number of cargo or baggage. The problem here is whether the carrier is entitled to avail himself of the liability limit of the provisions of the Convention when no information on number or weight of the consigned packages is available in accordance with Article 4 of the Convention. Currently the majority of decisions show positive stance on this. The carrier is entitled to avail himself of the liability limit of the provisions of the Convention when the requirement of information on number and weight of consigned packages is skipped, because these requirements are too technical and insubstancial. However some decisions declare just the opposite. They hold that the provisions of the Convention Article 4 is clear, and their meaning and effect should be imposed on it literally and that it is neither unjust nor too technical for a carrier to meet the minimum requirement prescribed in the Convention. Up to now, no decisions by the U.S. Supreme Court on this issue is available.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.1-27
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• 2017

It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.

• Korean Journal of Cognitive Science
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.405-428
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• 1990

Language has a social function to communicate information. Linguists have gradually paid their attention to the function of language since the nineteen sixties, especially to the relationship of form, meaning and the function. The relationship could be more clearly grasped through disciyrse-based analysis than through sentence-based analysis. Many researches were centered on the discourse functional notion of topic. In the early 1970's the subject was defined as the grammatiocalized topic the topic as a discrete single constituent of the clause. In the late 1970's several lingusts including Givon suggerted that the topic was not an atomic, disctete entity, and that the clause could have more than one topic. The purpose of the present study is, following Givon, to study grammatical coding devices of topic and to measure the relative topic continuity/discontinuity of participant argu, ents in Korean narratives. By so doing, I would like to shed some light on effective ways of communicating information. The grammatical coding devices analyzed are the following eight structures: zero-anaphora, personal pronous, demonstrative pronouns, names, noun phrases following demonstratives, noun phrases following possessives, definite noun phrases and indefinite referentials. The narrative studied for the count was taken from the KoreanCIA chief's Testiomny:Revolution and Idol by Hyung Wook Kim. It was chosen because it was assumed that Kim's purpose in the novel was to tell a true story, which would not distort the natural use of language for literary effect. The measures taken in the analysis wre those of 'lookback', 'persistence', ambiguity'. The first of these, 'lookback', is a measure of the size of gap between the previous occurrence of a referent and its current occurence in the clause. The meausure of persistence, which is a measure of the speaker's topocal intent, reflects the topic's importance in the discourse. The third measure is a measure of ambiguity. This is necessary for assessing the disruptive effects that other topics within five previous clauses may have on topic identification. The more other topics are present within five previous clauses, the more difficult is the task of correct identification of a topic. The results of the present study show that the humanness of entities is the most powerful factior in topic continutiy in narrative discourse. The semantic roles of human arguments in narrative discourse tend to be agents or experiences. Since agents and experiences have high topicality in discourse, human entities clearly become clausal or discoursal topics. The results also show that the grammatical devices signal varying degrees of topic continuity discontinuity in continuous discourse. The more continuous a topic argument is, the less it is coded. For example, personal pronouns have the most continutiy and indefinite referentials have the least continutiy. The study strongly shows that topic continuity discontinutiy is controlled not only by grammatical devices available in the language but by socio-cultural factors and writer's intentions.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.97-116
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• 2012

Conceptual modeling is an important step for successful system development. It helps system designers and business practitioners share the same view on domain knowledge. If the work is successful, a result of conceptual modeling can be beneficial in increasing productivity and reducing failures. However, the value of conceptual modeling is unlikely to be evaluated uniformly because we are lack of agreement on how to elicit concepts and how to represent those with conceptual modeling constructs. Especially, designing relationships between components, also known as part-whole relationships, have been regarded as complicated work. The recent study, "Representing Part-Whole Relations in Conceptual Modeling : An Empirical Evaluation" (Shanks et al., 2008), published in MIS Quarterly, can be regarded as one of positive efforts. Not only the study is one of few attempts of trying to clarify how to select modeling alternatives in part-whole design, but also it shows results based on an empirical experiment. Shanks et al. argue that there are two modeling alternatives to represent part-whole relationships : an implicit representation and an explicit one. By conducting an experiment, they insist that the explicit representation increases the value of a conceptual model. Moreover, Shanks et al. justify their findings by citing the BWW ontology. Recently, the study from Shanks et al. faces criticism. Allen and March (2012) argue that Shanks et al.'s experiment is lack of validity and reliability since the experimental setting suffers from error-prone and self-defensive design. They point out that the experiment is intentionally fabricated to support the idea, as such that using concrete UML concepts results in positive results in understanding models. Additionally, Allen and March add that the experiment failed to consider boundary conditions; thus reducing credibility. Shanks and Weber (2012) contradict flatly the argument suggested by Allen and March (2012). To defend, they posit the BWW ontology is righteously applied in supporting the research. Moreover, the experiment, they insist, can be fairly acceptable. Therefore, Shanks and Weber argue that Allen and March distort the true value of Shanks et al. by pointing out minor limitations. In this study, we try to investigate the dispute around Shanks et al. in order to answer to the following question : "What is the proper value of the study conducted by Shanks et al.?" More profoundly, we question whether or not using the BWW ontology can be the only viable option of exploring better conceptual modeling methods and procedures. To understand key issues around the dispute, first we reviewed previous studies relating to the BWW ontology. We critically reviewed both of Shanks and Weber and Allen and March. With those findings, we further discuss theories on part-whole (or part-of) relationships that are rarely treated in the dispute. As a result, we found three additional evidences that are not sufficiently covered by the dispute. The main focus of the dispute is on the errors of experimental methods: Shanks et al. did not use Bunge's Ontology properly; the refutation of a paradigm shift is lack of concrete, logical rationale; the conceptualization on part-whole relations should be reformed. Conclusively, Allen and March indicate properly issues that weaken the value of Shanks et al. In general, their criticism is reasonable; however, they do not provide sufficient answers how to anchor future studies on part-whole relationships. We argue that the use of the BWW ontology should be rigorously evaluated by its original philosophical rationales surrounding part-whole existence. Moreover, conceptual modeling on the part-whole phenomena should be investigated with more plentiful lens of alternative theories. The criticism on Shanks et al. should not be regarded as a contradiction on evaluating modeling methods of alternative part-whole representations. To the contrary, it should be viewed as a call for research on usable and useful approaches to increase value of conceptual modeling.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.34
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• pp.196-243
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• 2006

The popularity of Korea pop culture, which called as the name of "Korea wave", has started to spread out in China and other Asian states from late-1990's. The study about "Korea wave" until now, however, have prevailed within an economic point of view. So, I would like to clarify that this dissertation raises a question in exiting argument and explains the identity of "Korea wave" by investigating the details of pop culture contents of Korea, and understanding of chinese receiver. It shows that chinese receiver, watching the movie , has estimated in the affirmative viewpoint after I have analyzed a reply of movie web-site in China. The main features of this analysis prove that there are a lot of good estimation when chinese receiver have seen that movie because it has been well-matched with emotion and fun of story and attraction in the movie. In that order, Some Chinese netizen evaluated that there are some negative point of view as the main actress has a strange and crazy behavior. I have also found that Korea pop culture contents has not given to them good image and chinese receiver had a tendency to view objectively to classify with strength and weakness. Analysis to contrast understanding of Chinese netizen with Korea netizen showed that Korea netizen emphasized fun of story, however, Chinese netizen showed that they had a lot of opinion to be fresh and realistic relatively. In conclusion, I would like herewith to identify that there are some differences between Chinese netizen and Korean netizen after contacting the movie. The reason has showed that understanding about the same object can be a great deal of various consideration in two more diverse cultures which have many different social-cultural and historical situation.

• Korean journal of communication and information
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• v.36
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• pp.399-422
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• 2006

Whether to reduce the current 'screen quota' for domestic films in conjunction with the FTA discussions between Korea and the United States is one of the hotly debated issues in Korea. Using Toulmin's Argumentation Model, this study attempts to trace the use of data and warrants for each pro and con claims as portrayed in newspaper editorial columns and to find its rhetorical significance. A total of 67 editorial columns were collected from 9 nationwide news dailies in Korea for the purpose. The rhetorical analysis of those articles showed that the major warrants used in each pro and con opinion were absent of the potential issues of the opponents, which inherently fails to invite rebuttals from the opposite sides. This conceptual wall in each argumentation models implies an inactive conversation and subsequent absence of clash between the pro and con argumentation fields. It is thus suggested for opinion writers to find more adequate evidences to support the data and warrants to hold persuasive power of their respective claims, ultimately to enhance the public discourse among citizens.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.141-177
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• 2011

I. Research Objectives: Most of the previous studies on diffusion have concentrated on efficacy of WOM communication with the use of variables at individual level (Iacobucci 1996; Midgley et al. 1992). However, there is a paucity of studies which investigated network's structural properties as antecedents of WOM from the perspective of consumers' sociocultural propensities. Against this research backbone, this study attempted to link the network's structural properties and consumer' WOM behavior on cross-national basis. The major research objective of this study was to examine the relationship between network properties and WOM by comparing Korean and Chinese consumers. Specific objectives of this research are threefold; firstly, it sought to examine whether network properties (i.e., tie strength, centrality, range) affect WOM (WOM intention and quality of WOM). Secondly, it aimed to explore the moderating effects of cutural orientation (uncertainty avoidance and individuality) on the relationship between network properties and WOM. Thirdly, it substantiates the role of innovativeness as antecedents to both network properties and WOM. II. Research Hypotheses: Based on the above research objectives, the study put forth the following research hypotheses to validate. ${\cdot}$ H 1-1 : The Strength of tie between two counterparts within network will positively influence WOM effectivenes ${\cdot}$ H 1-2 : The network centrality will positively influence the WOM effectiveness ${\cdot}$ H 1-3 : The network range will positively influence the WOM effectiveness ${\cdot}$ H 2-1 : The consumer's uncertainty avoidance tendency will moderate the relationship between network properties and WOM effectiveness ${\cdot}$ H 2-2 : The consumer's individualism tendency will moderate the relationship between network properties and WOM effectiveness ${\cdot}$ H 3-1 : The consumer's innovativeness will positively influence the social network properties ${\cdot}$ H 3-2 : The consumer's innovativeness will positively influence WOM effectiveness III. Methodology: Through a pilot study and back-translation, two versions of questionnaire were prepared, one in Korean and the other in Chinese. The chinese data were collected from the chinese students enrolled in language schools in Suwon city in Korea, while Korean data were collected from students taking classes in a major university in Seoul. A total of 277 questionnaire were used for analysis of Korean data and 212 for Chinese data. The reason why Chinese students living in Korea rather than in China were selected was based on two factors: one was to neutralize the differences (ie, retail channel availability) that may arise from living in separate countries and the second was to minimize the difference in communication venues such as internet accessibility and cell phone usability. SPSS 12.0 and AMOS 7.0 were used for analysis. IV. Results: Prior to hypothesis verification, mean differences between the two countries in terms of major constructs were performed with the following result; As for network properties (tie strength, centrality and range), Koreans showed higher scores in all three constructs. For cultural orientation traits, Koreans scored higher only on uncertainty avoidance trait than Chinese. As a result of verifying the first research objective, confirming the relationship between network properties and WOM effectiveness, on Korean side, tie strength(Beta=.116; t=1.785) and centrality (Beta=.499; t=6.776) significantly influenced on WOM intention, and similar finding was obtained for Chinese side, with tie strength (Beta=.246; t=3.544) and centrality (Beta=.247; t=3.538) being significant. However, with regard to WOM argument quality, Korean data yielded only centrality (Beta=.82; t=7.600) having a significant impact on WOM, whereas China showed both tie strength(Beat=.142; t=2.052) and centrality(Beta=.348; t=5.031) being influential. To answer for the second research objective addressing the moderating role of cultural orientation, moderated regression anaylsis was performed and the result showed that uncertainty avoidance moderated between network range and WOM intention for both Korea and China, But for Korea, the uncertainty avoidance moderated between tie strength and WOM quality, while for China it moderated between network range and WOM intention. And innovativeness moderated between tie strength and WOM intention for Korea but it moderated between network range and WOM intention for China. As a result of analysing for third research objective, we found that for Korea, innovativeness positively influenced centrality only (Beta=.546; t=10.808), while for China it influenced both tie strength (Beta=.203; t=2.998) and centrality(Beta=.518; t=8.782). But for both countries alike, the innovativeness influenced positively on WOM (WOM intention and WOM quality). V. Implications: The study yields the two practical implications. Firstly, the result suggests that companies targeting multinational customers need to identify segments which are susceptible to the positive WOM and WOM information based on individual traits such as uncertainty avoidance and individualism and based on that, develop marketing communication strategy. Secondly, the companies need to divide the market on Roger's five innovation stages and based on this information, enforce marketing strategy which utilizes social networking tools such as public media and WOM. For instance, innovator and early adopters, if provided with new product information, will be able to capitalize upon the network advantages and thus add informational value to network operations using SNS or corporate blog.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.31-57
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• 1991

Korean firms of all sizes, from virtually every industry, have used and are using the term "excessive competition" to describe the state of their industry and to call for government interventions. Moreover, the Korean government has frequently responded to such calls in various ways favorable to the firms, such as controlling entry, curbing capacity investments, or allowing collusion. Despite such interventions' impact on the overall efficiency on the Korean economy as well as on the wealth distribution among diverse groups of economic agents, the term "excessive competition", the basis for the interventions, has so far escaped rigorous scrutiny. The objective of this paper is to clarify the notion of "excessive competition" and "over-investment" which usually accompanies "excessive competition", and to examine the circumstances under which they might occur. We first survey the cases where the terms are most widely used and proceed to examine those cases to determine if competition is indeed excessive, and if so, what causes "excessive competition". Our main concern deals with the case in which the firms must make investment decisions that involve large sunk costs while facing uncertain demand. In order to analyze this case, we developed a two period model of capacity precommitment and the ensuing competition. In the first period, oligopolistic firms make capacity investments that are irreversible. Demand is uncertain in period 1 and only the distribution is known. Thus, firms must make investment decisions under uncertainty. In the second period, demand is realized, and the firms compete with quantity under realized demand and capacity constraints. In the above setting, we find that there is "no over-investment," en ante, and there is "no excessive competition," ex post. As measured by the information available in period 1, expected return from investment of a firm is non-negative, overall industry capacity does not exceed the socially optimal level, and competition in the second period yields an outcome that gives each operating firm a non-negative second period profit. Thus, neither "excessive competition" nor "over-investment" is possible. This result will generally hold true if there is no externality and if the industry is not a natural monopoly. We also extend this result by examining a model in which the government is an active participant in the game with a well defined preference. Analysis of this model shows that over-investment arises if the government cannot credibly precommit itself to non-intervention when ex post idle capacity occurs, due to socio-political reasons. Firms invest in capacities that exceed socially optimal levels in this case because they correctly expect that the government will find it optimal for itself to intervene once over-investment and ensuing financial problems for the firms occur. Such planned over-investment and ensuing government intervention are the generic problems under the current system. These problems are expected to be repeated in many industries in years to come, causing a significant loss of welfare in the long run. As a remedy to this problem, we recommend a non-intervention policy by the government which creates and utilizes uncertainty. Based upon an argument which is essentially the same as that of Kreps and Wilson in the context of a chain-store game, we show that maintaining a consistent non-intervention policy will deter a planned over-investment by firms in the long run. We believe that the results obtained in this paper has a direct bearing on the public policies relating to many industries including the petrochemical industry that is currently in the center of heated debates.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.151-166
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• 1991

In this paper, a simple game-theoretic entry deterrence model is developed that integrates both limit pricing and predatory pricing. While there have been extensive studies which have dealt with predation and limit pricing separately, no study so far has analyzed these closely related practices in a unified framework. Treating each practice as if it were an independent phenomenon is, of course, an analytical necessity to abstract from complex realities. However, welfare analysis based on such a model may give misleading policy implications. By analyzing limit and predatory pricing within a single framework, this paper attempts to shed some light on the effects of interactions between these two frequently cited tactics of entry deterrence. Another distinctive feature of the paper is that limit and predatory pricing emerge, in equilibrium, as rational, profit maximizing strategies in the model. Until recently, the only conclusion from formal analyses of predatory pricing was that predation is unlikely to take place if every economic agent is assumed to be rational. This conclusion rests upon the argument that predation is costly; that is, it inflicts more losses upon the predator than upon the rival producer, and, therefore, is unlikely to succeed in driving out the rival, who understands that the price cutting, if it ever takes place, must be temporary. Recently several attempts have been made to overcome this modelling difficulty by Kreps and Wilson, Milgram and Roberts, Benoit, Fudenberg and Tirole, and Roberts. With the exception of Roberts, however, these studies, though successful in preserving the rationality of players, still share one serious weakness in that they resort to ad hoc, external constraints in order to generate profit maximizing predation. The present paper uses a highly stylized model of Cournot duopoly and derives the equilibrium predatory strategy without invoking external constraints except the assumption of asymmetrically distributed information. The underlying intuition behind the model can be summarized as follows. Imagine a firm that is considering entry into a monopolist's market but is uncertain about the incumbent firm's cost structure. If the monopolist has low cost, the rival would rather not enter because it would be difficult to compete with an efficient, low-cost firm. If the monopolist has high costs, however, the rival will definitely enter the market because it can make positive profits. In this situation, if the incumbent firm unwittingly produces its monopoly output, the entrant can infer the nature of the monopolist's cost by observing the monopolist's price. Knowing this, the high cost monopolist increases its output level up to what would have been produced by a low cost firm in an effort to conceal its cost condition. This constitutes limit pricing. The same logic applies when there is a rival competitor in the market. Producing a high cost duopoly output is self-revealing and thus to be avoided. Therefore, the firm chooses to produce the low cost duopoly output, consequently inflicting losses to the entrant or rival producer, thus acting in a predatory manner. The policy implications of the analysis are rather mixed. Contrary to the widely accepted hypothesis that predation is, at best, a negative sum game, and thus, a strategy that is unlikely to be played from the outset, this paper concludes that predation can be real occurence by showing that it can arise as an effective profit maximizing strategy. This conclusion alone may imply that the government can play a role in increasing the consumer welfare, say, by banning predation or limit pricing. However, the problem is that it is rather difficult to ascribe any welfare losses to these kinds of entry deterring practices. This difficulty arises from the fact that if the same practices have been adopted by a low cost firm, they could not be called entry-deterring. Moreover, the high cost incumbent in the model is doing exactly what the low cost firm would have done to keep the market to itself. All in all, this paper suggests that a government injunction of limit and predatory pricing should be applied with great care, evaluating each case on its own basis. Hasty generalization may work to the detriment, rather than the enhancement of consumer welfare.