• Title/Summary/Keyword: Application Test

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Evaluation of Stabilization Capacity for Typical Amendments based on the Scenario of Heavy Metal Contaminated Sites in Korea (국내 중금속 부지오염시나리오를 고려한 안정화제의 중금속 안정화 효율 규명)

  • Yang, Jihye;Kim, Danu;Oh, Yuna;Jeon, Soyoung;Lee, Minhee
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to determine the order of priority for the use of amendments, matching the optimal amendment to the specific site in Korea. This decision-making process must prioritize the stabilization and economic efficiency of amendment for heavy metals and metalloid based on domestic site contamination scenarios. For this study, total 5 domestic heavy metal contaminated sites were selected based on different pollution scenarios and 13 amendments, which were previously studied as the soil stabilizer. Batch extraction experiments were performed to quantify the stabilization efficiency for 8 heavy metals (including As and Hg) for 5 soil samples, representing 5 different pollution scenarios. For each amendment, the analyses using XRD and XRF to identify their properties, the toxicity characteristics leaching procedure (TCLP) test, and the synthetic precipitation leaching procedure (SPLP) test were also conducted to evaluate the leaching safety in applied site. From results of batch experiments, the amendments showing > 20% extraction lowering efficiency for each heavy metal (metalloid) was selected and the top 5 ranked amendments were determined at different amount of amendment and on different extraction time conditions. For each amendment, the total number of times ranked in the top 5 was counted, prioritizing the feasible amendment for specific domestic contaminated sites in Korea. Mine drainage treatment sludge, iron oxide, calcium oxide, calcium hydroxide, calcite, iron sulfide, biochar showed high extraction decreasing efficiency for heavy metals in descending order. When the economic efficiency for these amendments was analyzed, mine drainage treatment sludge, limestone, steel making slag, calcium oxide, calcium hydroxide were determined as the priority amendment for the Korean field application in descending order.

Restoration and Stability of the Glass Sarira Bottle (Treasure No. 1925) from the Sarira Reliquaries Commissioned by Yi Seonggye, Excavated from Geumgangsan Mountain (보물 제1925호 금강산 출토 이성계 발원 사리장 엄구 내 유리제 사리병의 복원 및 안정성 연구)

  • Na, Ahyoung;Hwang, Hyunsung
    • Conservation Science in Museum
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    • v.26
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2021
  • 3D printing technology has been actively applied for the restoration of cultural properties. However, its application to the restoration of glass cultural properties has not yet been reported and thus requires further study. In this study, 3D printing technology was used to restore a defective part of a glass sarira bottle that forms an element of a series of sarira reliquaries commissioned by Yi Seonggye (known as King Taejo after founding the Joseon Dynasty) that was excavated from Geumgangsan Mountain (designated as Treasure No. 1925) and is currently housed at the National Museum of Korea. The defective area was reproduced using 3D printing and the printed reproduction was reproduced again using an epoxy resin. This latter piece was used as the restoration component rather than the 3D printed element. After the completion of the conservation treatment, the materials used for the 3D printing were compared with transparent materials used to restore ceramics to evaluate their usability and stability. A total of five specimens were produced, including from photocurable resin made by a stereo lithography apparatus (SLA), epoxy resin, acrylic resin, and more. They were exposed to UV for 96 hours to test for yellowing. Of the two specimens made of photocurable resins and exposed to UV, one was sprayed with a UV blocking agent but the other was exposed as-is. The UV exposure test showed that the specimen made by the SLA and sprayed with a UV blocking agent and the specimen made of epoxy resin were stable in terms of yellowing with a change in the b-value was less than 1. They are thus considered to be suitable materials for the restoration of glass cultural properties. Such glass cultural properties are often diverse in shape and their restoration can be difficult as they generally consist of a range of complex parts that hamper restoration. In this regard, diverse materials should be considered when selecting materials for the restoration of glass cultural properties.

Knowledge graph-based knowledge map for efficient expression and inference of associated knowledge (연관지식의 효율적인 표현 및 추론이 가능한 지식그래프 기반 지식지도)

  • Yoo, Keedong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.49-71
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    • 2021
  • Users who intend to utilize knowledge to actively solve given problems proceed their jobs with cross- and sequential exploration of associated knowledge related each other in terms of certain criteria, such as content relevance. A knowledge map is the diagram or taxonomy overviewing status of currently managed knowledge in a knowledge-base, and supports users' knowledge exploration based on certain relationships between knowledge. A knowledge map, therefore, must be expressed in a networked form by linking related knowledge based on certain types of relationships, and should be implemented by deploying proper technologies or tools specialized in defining and inferring them. To meet this end, this study suggests a methodology for developing the knowledge graph-based knowledge map using the Graph DB known to exhibit proper functionality in expressing and inferring relationships between entities and their relationships stored in a knowledge-base. Procedures of the proposed methodology are modeling graph data, creating nodes, properties, relationships, and composing knowledge networks by combining identified links between knowledge. Among various Graph DBs, the Neo4j is used in this study for its high credibility and applicability through wide and various application cases. To examine the validity of the proposed methodology, a knowledge graph-based knowledge map is implemented deploying the Graph DB, and a performance comparison test is performed, by applying previous research's data to check whether this study's knowledge map can yield the same level of performance as the previous one did. Previous research's case is concerned with building a process-based knowledge map using the ontology technology, which identifies links between related knowledge based on the sequences of tasks producing or being activated by knowledge. In other words, since a task not only is activated by knowledge as an input but also produces knowledge as an output, input and output knowledge are linked as a flow by the task. Also since a business process is composed of affiliated tasks to fulfill the purpose of the process, the knowledge networks within a business process can be concluded by the sequences of the tasks composing the process. Therefore, using the Neo4j, considered process, task, and knowledge as well as the relationships among them are defined as nodes and relationships so that knowledge links can be identified based on the sequences of tasks. The resultant knowledge network by aggregating identified knowledge links is the knowledge map equipping functionality as a knowledge graph, and therefore its performance needs to be tested whether it meets the level of previous research's validation results. The performance test examines two aspects, the correctness of knowledge links and the possibility of inferring new types of knowledge: the former is examined using 7 questions, and the latter is checked by extracting two new-typed knowledge. As a result, the knowledge map constructed through the proposed methodology has showed the same level of performance as the previous one, and processed knowledge definition as well as knowledge relationship inference in a more efficient manner. Furthermore, comparing to the previous research's ontology-based approach, this study's Graph DB-based approach has also showed more beneficial functionality in intensively managing only the knowledge of interest, dynamically defining knowledge and relationships by reflecting various meanings from situations to purposes, agilely inferring knowledge and relationships through Cypher-based query, and easily creating a new relationship by aggregating existing ones, etc. This study's artifacts can be applied to implement the user-friendly function of knowledge exploration reflecting user's cognitive process toward associated knowledge, and can further underpin the development of an intelligent knowledge-base expanding autonomously through the discovery of new knowledge and their relationships by inference. This study, moreover than these, has an instant effect on implementing the networked knowledge map essential to satisfying contemporary users eagerly excavating the way to find proper knowledge to use.

Behaviors of Soft Bangkok Clay behind Diaphragm Wall Under Unloading Compression Triaxial Test (삼축압축 하에서 지중연속벽 주변 방콕 연약 점토의 거동)

  • Le, Nghia Trong;Teparaksa, Wanchai;Mitachi, Toshiyuki;Kawaguchi, Takayuki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.23 no.9
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    • pp.5-16
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    • 2007
  • The simple linear elastic-perfectly plastic model with soil parameters $s_u,\;E_u$ and n of undrained condition is usually applied to predict the displacement of a constructed diaphragm wall(DW) on soft soils during excavation. However, the application of this soil model for finite element analysis could not interpret the continued increment of the lateral displacement of the DW for the large and deep excavation area both during the elapsed time without activity of excavation and after finishing excavation. To study the characteristic behaviors of soil behind the DW during the periods without excavation, a series of tests on soft Bangkok clay samples are simulated in the same manner as stress condition of soil elements happening behind diaphragm wall by triaxial tests. Three kinds of triaxial tests are carried out in this research: $K_0$ consolidated undrained compression($CK_0U_C$) and $K_0$ consolidated drained/undrained unloading compression with periodic decrement of horizontal pressure($CK_0DUC$ and $CK_0UUC$). The study shows that the shear strength of series $CK_0DUC$ tests is equal to the residual strength of $CK_0UC$ tests. The Young's modulus determined at each decrement step of the horizontal pressure of soil specimen on $CK_0DUC$ tests decreases with increase in the deviator stress. In addition, the slope of Critical State Line of both $CK_0UC$ and $CK_0DUC$ tests is equal. Moreover, the axial and radial strain rates of each decrement of horizontal pressure step of $CK_0DUC$ tests are established with the function of time, a slope of critical state line and a ratio of deviator and mean effective stress. This study shows that the results of the unloading compression triaxial tests can be used to predict the diaphragm wall deflection during excavation.

A study on performance evaluation of fiber reinforced concrete using PET fiber reinforcement (PET 섬유 보강재를 사용한 섬유 보강 콘크리트의 성능 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Ri-On Oh;Yong-Sun Ryu;Chan-Gi Park;Sung-Ki Park
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.261-283
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to review the performance stability of PET (Polyethylene terephthalate) fiber reinforcing materials among the synthetic fiber types for which the application of performance reinforcing materials to fiber-reinforced concrete is being reviewed by examining short-term and long-term performance changes. To this end, the residual performance was analyzed after exposing the PET fiber to an acid/alkali environment, and the flexural strength and equivalent flexural strength of the PET fiber-reinforced concrete mixture by age were analyzed, and the surface of the PET fiber collected from the concrete specimen was examined using a scanning microscope (SEM). The changes in were analyzed. As a result of the acid/alkali environment exposure test of PET fiber, the strength retention rate was 83.4~96.4% in acidic environment and 42.4~97.9% in alkaline environment. It was confirmed that the strength retention rate of the fiber itself significantly decreased when exposed to high-temperature strong alkali conditions, and the strength retention rate increased in the finished yarn coated with epoxy. In the test results of the flexural strength and equivalent flexural strength of the PET fiber-reinforced concrete mixture, no reduction in flexural strength was found, and the equivalent flexural strength result also did not show any degradation in performance as a fiber reinforcement. Even in the SEM analysis results, no surface damage or cross-sectional change of the PET reinforcing fibers was observed. These results mean that no damage or cross-section reduction of PET reinforcing fibers occurs in cement concrete environments even when fiber-reinforced concrete is exposed to high temperatures in the early stage or depending on age, and the strength of PET fibers decreases in cement concrete environments. The impact is judged to be of no concern. As the flexural strength and equivalent flexural strength according to age were also stably expressed, it could be seen that performance degradation due to hydrolysis, which is a concern due to the use of PET fiber reinforcing materials, did not occur, and it was confirmed that stable residual strength retention characteristics were exhibited.

Clinical Findings of Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia under 3 Year-Old Children (3세 이하 Mycoplasma pneumoniae 폐렴환자의 임상적 고찰)

  • Lee, Sung-Soo;Youn, Kyung-Lim;Kang, Hyeon-Ho;Cho, Byoung-Soo;Cha, Sung-Ho
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.78-85
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    • 1999
  • Purpose : Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia has been to be developed frequently in school age children and adolescence and hard to see under 3 year-old children. But it seems to be increased in number of patients with Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia under 3-year old in clinical practice in these days. We have aimed to examine the characteristics of clinical findings of Mycoplasma pneumonia under 3 year-old children. Methods : We had performed retrospective review of medical records of 30 patients with Mycoplasmal pneumonia under 3-year old children who admitted to Department of Pediatrics, Kyunghee University Hospital from Jan. 1994 to Dec. 1997. The diagnostic criteriae was Cold agglutinin titer>1:64 or Mycoplasma antibody titer>1:80. Results : Mycoplasmal pneumonia was 30 out of 235 cases(12.7%) of total pneumonia under 3 year old children. Male female ratio was 1.3 : 1 and age distributions were 0~1y : 0, 1~2y : 8, 2~3y : 22 cases. Clinical symptoms and signs were cough(100.0%), sputum(83.3%), fever(80.0%) rhinorrhea(33.3%), vomiting(33.3%), moist rale(86.7%), decreased breathing sound(26.7%), wheezing(20.0%), and pharyngeal injection(30.0%). Thirteen out of 30 cases(43.3%) had unilateral infiltration, 10 cases(33.4%) had bilateral infiltration, 1 case(3.3%) had pleural effusion, and 6 cases(20.0%) had negative findings on chest radiography and there was no cases of atelectasis. On laboratory findings, 6 out of 30 cases(20.0%) had leukocytosis, 1 case(3.3%) had neutrophilia, 10 cases(30.0%) had eosinophilia, 17 cases(56.7%) had increased ESR, and 18 cases(60.6%) had positive CRP. Positive cold agglutinin titers(>1 : 64) were 19 cases(63.3%), and positive mycoplasma antibody(M-ab) titers(>1 : 80) were 27 cases(93.3%). Mycoplasma antibody test was more valuable than cold agglutinin test for the diagnosis of Mycoplasmal pneumonia and there was no correlation between cold agglutinin titer and mycoplasma antibody titer. Mycoplasma-polymerase chain reaction(M-PCR) was done with 13 cases, 12 out of 13 cases(92.3%) were positive. M-PCR test was valuable to the diagnosis of Mycoplasmal pneumonia but it will be needed to further study for their clinical application. Among 30 cases, 5 cases(16.7%) had complications, 3 cases(10.0%) had skin rash, 1 case(3.3%) had pleural effusion, 1 case(3.3%) had arthralgia, but all complications were mild and recovered without residual sequelae. Conclusion : The occurrence of Mycoplasmal pneumonia under 3 year-old children was not rare from this study. Clinical characteristics of Mycoplasmal pneumonia under 3-year old were normal radiologic findings in many cases, low complication rate, mild clinical course, and tend to rapid recovery compared with general manifestations of Mycoplasmal infectionsin children and adolescence. There were likely to be missed patients with Mycoplasmal pneumonia which did not diagnose by conventional serologic tests that had low sensitivity and specificity. We have to pay attention to the Mycoplasmal infection of the young children with pneumonia during epidemic periods of Mycoplasmal infection.

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Development of the Accident Prediction Model for Enlisted Men through an Integrated Approach to Datamining and Textmining (데이터 마이닝과 텍스트 마이닝의 통합적 접근을 통한 병사 사고예측 모델 개발)

  • Yoon, Seungjin;Kim, Suhwan;Shin, Kyungshik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we report what we have observed with regards to a prediction model for the military based on enlisted men's internal(cumulative records) and external data(SNS data). This work is significant in the military's efforts to supervise them. In spite of their effort, many commanders have failed to prevent accidents by their subordinates. One of the important duties of officers' work is to take care of their subordinates in prevention unexpected accidents. However, it is hard to prevent accidents so we must attempt to determine a proper method. Our motivation for presenting this paper is to mate it possible to predict accidents using enlisted men's internal and external data. The biggest issue facing the military is the occurrence of accidents by enlisted men related to maladjustment and the relaxation of military discipline. The core method of preventing accidents by soldiers is to identify problems and manage them quickly. Commanders predict accidents by interviewing their soldiers and observing their surroundings. It requires considerable time and effort and results in a significant difference depending on the capabilities of the commanders. In this paper, we seek to predict accidents with objective data which can easily be obtained. Recently, records of enlisted men as well as SNS communication between commanders and soldiers, make it possible to predict and prevent accidents. This paper concerns the application of data mining to identify their interests, predict accidents and make use of internal and external data (SNS). We propose both a topic analysis and decision tree method. The study is conducted in two steps. First, topic analysis is conducted through the SNS of enlisted men. Second, the decision tree method is used to analyze the internal data with the results of the first analysis. The dependent variable for these analysis is the presence of any accidents. In order to analyze their SNS, we require tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module. Our approach for finding their interests is composed of three main phases; collecting, topic analysis, and converting topic analysis results into points for using independent variables. In the first phase, we collect enlisted men's SNS data by commender's ID. After gathering unstructured SNS data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from them. For simplicity, 5 topics(vacation, friends, stress, training, and sports) are extracted from 20,000 articles. In the third phase, using these 5 topics, we quantify them as personal points. After quantifying their topic, we include these results in independent variables which are composed of 15 internal data sets. Then, we make two decision trees. The first tree is composed of their internal data only. The second tree is composed of their external data(SNS) as well as their internal data. After that, we compare the results of misclassification from SAS E-miner. The first model's misclassification is 12.1%. On the other hand, second model's misclassification is 7.8%. This method predicts accidents with an accuracy of approximately 92%. The gap of the two models is 4.3%. Finally, we test if the difference between them is meaningful or not, using the McNemar test. The result of test is considered relevant.(p-value : 0.0003) This study has two limitations. First, the results of the experiments cannot be generalized, mainly because the experiment is limited to a small number of enlisted men's data. Additionally, various independent variables used in the decision tree model are used as categorical variables instead of continuous variables. So it suffers a loss of information. In spite of extensive efforts to provide prediction models for the military, commanders' predictions are accurate only when they have sufficient data about their subordinates. Our proposed methodology can provide support to decision-making in the military. This study is expected to contribute to the prevention of accidents in the military based on scientific analysis of enlisted men and proper management of them.

Business Application of Convolutional Neural Networks for Apparel Classification Using Runway Image (합성곱 신경망의 비지니스 응용: 런웨이 이미지를 사용한 의류 분류를 중심으로)

  • Seo, Yian;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2018
  • Large amount of data is now available for research and business sectors to extract knowledge from it. This data can be in the form of unstructured data such as audio, text, and image data and can be analyzed by deep learning methodology. Deep learning is now widely used for various estimation, classification, and prediction problems. Especially, fashion business adopts deep learning techniques for apparel recognition, apparel search and retrieval engine, and automatic product recommendation. The core model of these applications is the image classification using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). CNN is made up of neurons which learn parameters such as weights while inputs come through and reach outputs. CNN has layer structure which is best suited for image classification as it is comprised of convolutional layer for generating feature maps, pooling layer for reducing the dimensionality of feature maps, and fully-connected layer for classifying the extracted features. However, most of the classification models have been trained using online product image, which is taken under controlled situation such as apparel image itself or professional model wearing apparel. This image may not be an effective way to train the classification model considering the situation when one might want to classify street fashion image or walking image, which is taken in uncontrolled situation and involves people's movement and unexpected pose. Therefore, we propose to train the model with runway apparel image dataset which captures mobility. This will allow the classification model to be trained with far more variable data and enhance the adaptation with diverse query image. To achieve both convergence and generalization of the model, we apply Transfer Learning on our training network. As Transfer Learning in CNN is composed of pre-training and fine-tuning stages, we divide the training step into two. First, we pre-train our architecture with large-scale dataset, ImageNet dataset, which consists of 1.2 million images with 1000 categories including animals, plants, activities, materials, instrumentations, scenes, and foods. We use GoogLeNet for our main architecture as it has achieved great accuracy with efficiency in ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC). Second, we fine-tune the network with our own runway image dataset. For the runway image dataset, we could not find any previously and publicly made dataset, so we collect the dataset from Google Image Search attaining 2426 images of 32 major fashion brands including Anna Molinari, Balenciaga, Balmain, Brioni, Burberry, Celine, Chanel, Chloe, Christian Dior, Cividini, Dolce and Gabbana, Emilio Pucci, Ermenegildo, Fendi, Giuliana Teso, Gucci, Issey Miyake, Kenzo, Leonard, Louis Vuitton, Marc Jacobs, Marni, Max Mara, Missoni, Moschino, Ralph Lauren, Roberto Cavalli, Sonia Rykiel, Stella McCartney, Valentino, Versace, and Yve Saint Laurent. We perform 10-folded experiments to consider the random generation of training data, and our proposed model has achieved accuracy of 67.2% on final test. Our research suggests several advantages over previous related studies as to our best knowledge, there haven't been any previous studies which trained the network for apparel image classification based on runway image dataset. We suggest the idea of training model with image capturing all the possible postures, which is denoted as mobility, by using our own runway apparel image dataset. Moreover, by applying Transfer Learning and using checkpoint and parameters provided by Tensorflow Slim, we could save time spent on training the classification model as taking 6 minutes per experiment to train the classifier. This model can be used in many business applications where the query image can be runway image, product image, or street fashion image. To be specific, runway query image can be used for mobile application service during fashion week to facilitate brand search, street style query image can be classified during fashion editorial task to classify and label the brand or style, and website query image can be processed by e-commerce multi-complex service providing item information or recommending similar item.

Blood Pressure Reactivity during Nasal Continuous Positive Airway Pressure in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (폐쇄성(閉鎖性) 수면무호흡증(睡眠無呼吸症)에서 지속적(持續的) 상기도(上氣道) 양압술(陽壓術)이 혈력학적(血力學的) 변화(變化)에 끼치는 영향(影響))

  • Park, Doo-Heum;Jeong, Do-Un
    • Sleep Medicine and Psychophysiology
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.24-33
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    • 2002
  • Objectives: Nasal continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) corrected elevated blood pressure (BP) in some studies of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) but not in others. Such inconsistent results in previous studies might be due to differences in factors influencing the effects of CPAP on BP. The factors referred to include BP monitoring techniques, the characteristics of subjects, and method of CPAP application. Therefore, we evaluated the effects of one night CPAP application on BP and heart rate (HR) reactivity using non-invasive beat-to-beat BP measurement in normotensive and hypertensive subjects with OSAS. Methods: Finger arterial BP and oxygen saturation monitoring with nocturnal polysomnography were performed on 10 OSAS patients (mean age $52.2{\pm}12.4\;years$; 9 males, 1 female; respiratory disturbance index (RDI)>5) for one baseline night and another CPAP night. Beat-to-beat measurement of BP and HR was done with finger arterial BP monitor ($Finapres^{(R)}$) and mean arterial oxygen saturation ($SaO_2$) was also measured at 2-second intervals for both nights. We compared the mean values of cardiovascular and respiratory variables between baseline and CPAP nights using Wilcoxon signed ranks test. Delta ($\Delta$) BP, defined as the subtracted value of CPAP night BP from baseline night BP, was correlated with age, body mass index (BMI), baseline night values of BP, BP variability, HR, HR variability, mean $SaO_2$ and respiratory disturbance index (RDI), and CPAP night values of TWT% (total wake time%) and CPAP pressure, using Spearman's correlation. Results: 1) Although increase of mean $SaO_2$ (p<.01) and decrease of RDI (p<.01) were observed on the CPAP night, there were no significant differences in other variables between two nights. 2) However, delta BP tended to increase or decease depending on BP values of the baseline night and age. Delta systolic BP and baseline systolic BP showed a significant positive correlation (p<.01), but delta diastolic BP and baseline diastolic BP did not show a significant correlation except for a positive correlation in wake stage (p<.01). Delta diastolic BP and age showed a significant negative correlation (p<.05) during all stages except for REM stage, but delta systolic BP and age did not. 3) Delta systolic and diastolic BPs did not significantly correlate with other factors, such as BMI, baseline night values of BP variability, HR, HR variability, mean SaO2 and RDI, and CPAP night values of TWT% and CPAP pressure, except for a positive correlation of delta diastolic pressure and TWT% of CPAP night (p<.01). Conclusions: We observed that systolic BP and diastolic BP tended to decrease, increase or remain still in accordance with the systolic BP level of baseline night and aging. We suggest that BP reactivity by CPAP be dealt with as a complex phenomenon rather than a simple undifferentiated BP decrease.

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.