• Convergence Security Journal
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.137-147
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to summarize the variables for making the power expansion of terrorist organizations possible by analyzing the power transitions among the Somalia governments and terrorisms. For this, I created a framework after extracting the independent variables affecting the power transition using the theories of Hans J. Morgenthau, A.F.K Organski, K.J. Holsti. On the basis of these, I analyzed the power transitions among the organizations from August 2012(the foundation of Federal government) to August 2019. According to the results, the power area of the federal government is extremely narrowed, whereas the power areas of al-Shabaab, ISIS, and neutral conflict are largely expanded. The factors in the framework were embodied as the delay of powerful federal government foundation, the shortage of national military forces, the limitation of effective use of foreign forces, the continuation of cooperation and antagonism among armed terrorist organization, sanctuary environment of terrorists using the Sharia law, advantages of force recruitment resulted from the bad economic conditions, public support suitable for the Somalia environment. All of these factors work the causes of lasting anarchy condition of the federal government of Somalia by making the settlement of conflict against terrorist organizations.