• 제목/요약/키워드: Agricultural Product Prices

검색결과 38건 처리시간 0.026초

월별 가격의 확률분포를 이용한 정보엔트로피 모델에 의한 농산물가격의 불확정성 (Uncertainty of Agricultural product Prices by Information Entropy Model using Probability Distribution for Monthly Prices)

  • 은상규;정남수;이정재;배연정
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제54권2호
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2012
  • To analyze any given situation, it is necessary to have information on elements which affect the situation. Particularly, there is greater variability in both frequency and magnitude of agricultural product prices as they are affected by various unpredictable factors such as weather conditions etc. This is the reason why it is difficult for the farmers to maintain their stable income through agricultural production and marketing. In this research, attempts are made to quantify the entropy of various situations inherent in the price changes so that the stability of farmers' income can be increased. Through this research, we developed an entropy model which can quantify the uncertainties of price changes using the probability distribution of price changes. The model was tested for its significance by comparing its simulation outcomes with actual ranges and standard deviations of price variations of the past using monthly agricultural product prices data. We confirmed that the simulation results reflected the features of the ranges and standard deviations of actual price variations. Also, it is possible for us to predict standard deviations for changed prices which will occur after a certain time using the information entropy obtained from relevant agricultural product price data before the time.

기온과 강수량에 따른 주요 농산물 가격 예측 (Forecasting Prices of Major Agricultural Products by Temperature and Precipitation)

  • 한군희;나원식
    • 미래기술융합논문지
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2024
  • 본 논문에서는 기온과 강수량이 농산물 가격에 미치는 영향을 분석하고 TensorFlow를 이용해 주요 농산물 가격을 예측하였다. 분석 결과, 기온 상승과 강수량 증가는 배추, 무, 대파, 상추, 양파 등의 가격 상승에 유의미한 영향을 미쳤다. 특히, 기온과 강수량이 동시에 증가할 때 가격이 급격히 상승하였다. 예측 모델은 기후 변화에 따른 농산물 가격 변동을 사전에 예측하는 데 유용하였다. 이를 통해 농업 생산자와 소비자가 기후 변화에 대비하고, 가격 변동에 대한 대응 전략을 마련할 수 있다. 논문에서는 기후 변화가 농산물 가격에 미치는 영향을 이해하고, 농산물 시장의 안정성과 지속 가능성을 높이는 방안을 모색하는 데 기여할 수 있다. 또한, 기후 변화 시대에 농업의 지속 가능성을 높이고 경제적 안정성을 확보하는 데 중요한 자료를 제공한다. 연구 결과는 정책 결정자들에게도 유용한 통찰을 제공할 것이며, 기후 변화에 대응한 효과적인 농업 정책 수립에 기여할 수 있다.

Applying Keyword Analysis to Predicting Agriculture Product Price Index: The Case of the Chinese Farming Market

  • Wang, Zhi-yuan;Kwon, Ohbyung;Liu, Fan
    • Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2016
  • The prediction of prices of agricultural products in the agriculture IT sector plays a significant role in the economic life of consumers and anyone engaged in agricultural business, and as these prices fluctuate more often than do other prices, the prediction of these prices holds a great deal of research promise. For this reason, academic literature has provided studies on the factors influencing the prices of agricultural products and the price index. However, as these factors vary, they are difficult to predict, resulting in the challenge of acquiring quantitative data. China is one example of a country without a reliable prediction system for prices of agricultural products. Fortunately, disclosed heterogeneous data can be found on the Internet, which allows for the effective collection of factors related to the prediction of these product prices through the use of text mining. The data provided online is valuable in that they reflect the opinions of the general public in real-time. Accordingly, this study aims to use heterogeneous data from the Internet and suggest a model predicting the prices of agricultural products before functional analyses. Toward this end, data analyses were conducted on the Chinese agricultural products market, one of the largest markets in the world.

Estimating the economic value of agricultural water using the virtual water concept

  • Lee, Gyumin;Kim, Yoon Hyung
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제44권4호
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    • pp.636-641
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    • 2017
  • Water is an essential resource for human survival. According to the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, rapid industrialization and a global population increase by approximately two billion will likely increase global water use by 55% in 2050. However, water depletion has been getting worse than before and has been happening more quickly, as Earth's water resources are limited. The present study proposes water management measures by using the virtual water theory which enables water consumption measurement and the confirmation and recognition of water scarcity problems, and will support the development of counter-measures. As a method for estimating the value of agricultural water, virtual water theory was used to calculate the amount of agricultural water input for domestic rice and to apply prices of agricultural water in the United States and China to Korean water prices. When the Chinese price was applied to Korean water prices, the value of agricultural water represented 0.3% of the Korean rice producer's price. When the US price was applied to Korean water prices, the value of agricultural water represented 1.6% of the domestic rice producer's price. The study exposes the percentage of the value of agricultural water in agricultural product prices, as well as how this scare resource may affect future prices. In the future, if there are water charges to effectively manage agricultural water, this study, which uses the virtual water theory, can be used as a preliminary research.

Co-integration and Causality Analysis among Major Black gram Markets in Andhra Pradesh, India

  • Kumar, K. Nirmal Ravi
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
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    • 제12권2호
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    • pp.40-54
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    • 2021
  • Market integration and prices in pulse crops like black gram play an important role in determining the production decisions of the farmers and diversification towards high value nutritious crops. In this context, the present study explores extent of market integration and price transmission in selected major black gram markets in Andhra Pradesh using Johansen co-integration, Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality test. The study used monthly prices data of black gram (Rs/quintal) sourced from selected markets of Srikakulam, Krishna and Kurnool spanning January, 1990 to December, 2019. The results of the study strongly buttressed the existence of co-integration and interdependence of selected black gram markets in Andhra Pradesh. However, the speed of adjustment of the prices found to be moderate in Krishna market and quite weaker in Srikakulam market and thereby prices correct a small percentage of the disequilibrium in these markets with the greatest percentage by the external and internal forces. So, it necessitates the need for future research, to investigate the influence of external and internal factors such as market infrastructure, Government policy and self-sufficient production, product characteristics and utilization towards market integration. As there exists only unidirectional causality from Krishna to Kurnool and from Krishna to Srikakulam markets, it calls for strengthening the information technology for flow of market information regularly to help the farmers for increasing their income.

Impact of a reduction in the quality of Shine Muscat on the grape variety market using the Armington model

  • Byung Min, Soon;Sumin, Cho;Sounghun, Kim
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제48권4호
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    • pp.911-926
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    • 2021
  • We devised a grape variety model to estimate the impact of lowering the Shine Muscat quality level on the grape market. Shine Muscat has become a popular grape variety in Korea. Accordingly, the area devoted to the harvesting of Shine Muscat has increased dramatically since 2016. Our study examines how a reduction in the quality of Shine Muscat affects other grapes such as Campbell Early, giant peak, and Muscat Bailey A (MBA). The Armington model was used to impose consumer preferences and product differentiation assumptions. We found that a decrease in the consumer preference for Shine Muscat realized by lowering the quality of Shine Muscat largely reduces the price of this variety. Also, the prices of other grape varieties fell via a substitute effect. Moreover, if grape varieties were more differentiated, the reduction in the price of Shine Muscat would be greater, while the decreases in the prices of other grape varieties would be smaller. These results imply that farmers of Shine Muscat must continue with quality management efforts to avoid the negative effect of changing consumer behavior with regard to Shine Muscat against a reduction in its quality. Our model introduces a product differentiation model for the fruit market and helps policymakers and farmers understand the impact of changing market conditions in the fruit market.

농산물 AI 가격 예측을 통한 전자거래 비즈니스 모델 설계 (Design of e-commerce business model through AI price prediction of agricultural products)

  • 한남규;김봉현
    • 한국융합학회논문지
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    • 제12권12호
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    • pp.83-91
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    • 2021
  • 농산물은 기상, 기후 등의 변화로 인해 공급이 불규칙하고, 공급량이 10% 하락하면 가격이 50% 상승하는 가격 탄력성이 매우 높다. 이러한 농산물 가격의 변동으로 인해 소상인의 경매를 통해 생산자에게 대금의 안전성을 보장하고 있다. 그러나, 과잉생산으로 가격이 폭락할 경우, 생산자에 대한 보호 조치는 미비한 실정이다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 농산물에 대한 가격을 인공지능 알고리즘으로 예측하여 전자거래 시스템에 활용할 수 있는 비즈니스 모델을 설계하였다. 이를 위해, 학습 패턴 쌍으로 모델을 학습시키고, ARIMA, SARIMA, RNN, CNN을 적용하여 예측 모델을 설계하였다. 최종적으로, 농산물 예측가격 데이터를 단기예측과 중기예측으로 분류하여 검증하였다. 검증 결과, 2018년 데이터를 기반으로 실제 가격과 예측 가격이 91.08%의 정확도를 나타냈다.

농림부산물 원료 펠릿 및 농업용 펠릿 난방기 (Pellet Made of Agricultural By-product and Agricultural Pellet Boiler System)

  • 강연구;유영선;강금춘;김종구;김영화;장재경;이형모
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2010년도 춘계학술대회 초록집
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    • pp.252.2-252.2
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    • 2010
  • Biomass is considered to be a major potential fuel and renewable resource for the future. In fact, there is high potential to produce the large amount of energy from biomass around the world. In this study, to obtain basic data for practical application of wood pellet and wood pellet boiler system as heating system in agriculture, agricultural biomass resources were surveyed, pellet was made of agricultural by-product such as stem of rape, oat and rice, ricehusk and sawdust and wood pellet boiler system with capacity of 116 kW was manufactured and installed in greenhouse of $38.5m{\times}32m$. High heating value, bulk density and ash content of pellet made of agricultural by-product and efficiency and heating performance of this system was estimated. Rice straw was the largest agricultural biomass in 2005 and the total amount of rice straw converted into energy of $131.71{\times}10^{11}$ kJ. And in 2005, total amount of forest' by-product converted into energy of $29,277.05{\times}10^{11}$ kJ. High heating values of pellets made of agricultural by-products of stem and seed of rape, stem of oat, rice straw and rice husk were 16,034, 16,026, 16,089, 15,650, 15,044 kJ/kg respectively. High heating values of pellets made of agricultural by-products were 83.6% compared to that of wood pellet. Average bulk density of pellets made of agricultural by-products of stem and seed of rape, stem of oat, rice straw and rice husk was 1,400 $kg/m^3$. Ash contents of the pellets were 6.6, 7.0, 6.2, 5.5, 33% respectively. Ash content of rice husk pellet was the largest compared to other kind of pellets. To increase efficiency of agricultural pellet boiler, the boiler adopted secondary heat exchanger. The agricultural pellet boiler designed and manufactured in this study had high efficiency of 84.2% compared to the conventional agricultural pellet boiler, when water flow rate, exhaust gas temperature and average combustion furnace temperature were 39L/min, $180^{\circ}C$, $680^{\circ}C$ respectively. And pellet supplying and pausing time were 13, 43 seconds respectively. In March of 2010, prices of wood pellet, agricultural tax free diesel, diesel, kerosene were 350 won/kg, 811 won/L, 1,422 won/L, 976 Won/L respectively. Also in terms of energy, prices per same heating value were 77.8, 90.1, 158, 108.4 Won/Mcal. Energy saving rate of wood pellet was 16, 50, 39% compared to agricultural tax free diesel, diesel and kerosene respectively.

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앙상블 Voting 기법을 활용한 배추 가격 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Prediction of Cabbage Price Using Ensemble Voting Techniques)

  • 이창민;송성광;정성욱
    • 융합정보논문지
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    • 제12권3호
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2022
  • 배추와 같은 채소류는 자연재해의 영향을 많이 받기 때문에 폭우나 병해와 같은 재해로 인해 가격 변동이 심해져 농가 경제에 영향을 미치게 된다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해서 농산물 가격 예측을 위한 다양한 노력이 행해졌지만 극심한 가격 예측 변동을 예측하기는 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 단일 분류기를 결합하여 다양한 여러 개의 분류기를 통해 최종 예측 결과를 결정하는 방식인 앙상블 Voting 기법으로 배추 가격을 분석하였다. 또한 시계 열 분석 방법인 LSTM과 부스팅 기법인 XGBoost와 RandomForest로 결과 비교를 하였다. 가격 데이터는 일별 데이터를 사용하였고 배추 가격에 영향을 주는 기상정보와 물가지수 등을 사용하였다. 연구 결과로는 실제값과 예측값의 차이를 보여주는 RMSE 값이 약 236 수준이다. 이 연구를 활용하여 농산물 가격 예측과 같은 다른 시계 열 분석 연구 모델 선정에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

인공지능 기반 농작물 성숙도 체크와 농산물 시장가격 변동을 고려한 출하시기 결정시스템 연구 (Research on a system for determining the timing of shipment based on artificial intelligence-based crop maturity checks and consideration of fluctuations in agricultural product market prices)

  • 위리;김남호
    • 스마트미디어저널
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 2024
  • 본 연구는 농산물의 품질, 수익 및 의사결정 효율성을 향상시키기 위한 통합적인 농업 유통망 관리시스템을 개발하는 데 목적이 있다. 우리는 YOLOX 객체 탐지 알고리즘을 기반으로 한 농작물 성숙도 체크와 Prophet 모델을 기반으로 한 시장 가격 예측이라는 두 가지 핵심 기술을 채택하였다. 객체 탐지 모델을 훈련함으로써, 다양한 성숙도 단계의 농작물을 정확하게 식별할 수 있게 되어 출하 시기를 최적화할 수 있었다. 동시에, 과거 시장 가격 데이터를 수집하고 Prophet 모델을 사용하여 가격을 예측함으로써, 출하시기 결정권자들에게 신뢰할 수 있는 가격 추세 정보를 제공하였다. 연구 결과에 따르면, 휴일 요소를 고려한 모델의 성능이 그렇지 않은 모델보다 두드러지게 우수하다는 것이 밝혀져서 휴일이 가격에 미치는 영향이 강함을 증명하였다. 이 시스템은 농민 및 농산물 유통 관리자에게 강력한 도구 및 의사결정 지원을 제공하여, 다양한 계절과 휴일 기간 동안 현명한 의사결정을 내릴 수 있게 도와준다. 아울러, 농산물 유통망을 최적화하고 농산물의 품질과 수익을 향상시킬 수 있다.