• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.234-241
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• 2012

The main objective of this research is to calibrate the performance prediction models for the growth of fatigue cracking in multi-layered asphalt concrete pavement systems. However, the calibration factors are dependent upon the prediction model, testing method, and the laboratory loading history. A detailed study on the field data has revealed that the performance of flexible pavements is affected by both the traffic loading and the environmental cycling which is related to the age of the pavements. Thus, a composite indicator was developed in this study which utilizes both the traffic and the age information with appropriate weighting factors. Using the proposed fatigue performance model the calibration factors were also estimated through the comparisons between the field performances on fatigue cracking and the laboratory-based fatigue life.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.45-50
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• 2002

Use of a phenomenological model, developed far prediction of catalytic deactivation, is demonstrated in comparing harshness of different driving cycles that are currently used to rapidly age catalytic converters on engine test benches. The model shows that seemingly equivalent driving cycles cause the catalytic converters to reach significantly different levels of deactivation. The comparison of the model prediction with the limited vehicle data seems encouraging despite the simplicity of the model at the current stage of its infancy.

• The Journal of Pediatrics of Korean Medicine
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.31-38
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• 2017

Objectives The purpose of this study was to find out the clinically reliable relationships between the Risser sign and chronological age, bone age, menarche, and adult height prediction (AHP) and to evidence the reliability of the Risser sign. Methods This study had been carried out with 50 children who had their growth checked in an oriental medical hospital from January 2015 to February 2017. We investigated Risser sign in AP X-rays with iliac crest, bone age, AHP for all 50 children and the timing of menarche from the 22 girls in the study subjects. We also investigated a correlation between the Risser stage and the other indicators to analyze statistical data. Results The mean chronological ages of Risser 1, 2, 3 and 4 were 11.2, 12.6, 14.4, and 15.5 years respectively for the boys and 10.8, 12.2, 13.8 and 14.8 years respectively for the girls. The mean bone ages of Risser 1, 2, 3 and 4 were 12.3, 13.6, 15.7 and 16.5 years respectively for the boys and 11.7, 13.8, 14.3 and 14.9 years respectively for the girls. We analyzed 22 girls' Risser stages in accordance with the duration from menarche. The result showed that in the first six months after menarche, all girls were in Risser 1 and 2; in the next six months, the girls were in Risser 2 on average; in the next 12 months, all girls were in Risser 3 and 4; after more than two years from menarche, all girls were in Risser 4. The mean remaining growth height of Risser 1, 2, 3 and 4 were 27.8, 17.3, 4.4 and 1.0 cm respectively for the boys and 14.5, 5.1, 3.1 and 1.1 cm respectively for the girls. The Risser stage was correlated strongly with chronological age (Spearman's rho=0.707 (boy), 0.841 (girl)), bone age (Spearman's rho=0.869 (boy), 0.875 (girl)), duration from menarche (Spearman's rho=0.909) and remaining growth height (Spearman's rho=-0.784 (boy), -0.878 (girl)). Conclusions This study showed that the Risser sign can be useful in assessing skeletal maturity and predicting remaining growth height based on the Risser stage and the other growth indicators.

• International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.163-169
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• 2003

Studies were conducted on the effect of pruning time, host age, conidial dispersal and weather parameters on the incidence and severity of mulberry leaf spot (Myrothecium roridum). The disease severity (%) increased with increase in shoot age irrespective of pruning date. Maximum disease severity was observed in plants pruned during first week of April and minimum disease severity in plants pruned during first week of March. Significant (P ＜ 0.01) influence of date of pruning, shoot age and their interaction was observed on severity of the disease. Apparent infection rate (r) was significantly higher during the plant growth period from day 48 to day 55. Average apparent yale was higher in plants pruned during first week of April and least in plants pruned during first week of July. The disease infection was negatively correlated to distance from the inoculum source. Leaf spot severity (%) was influenced by weather parameters. Multiple regression analysis revealed contribution of various combinations of weather parameters on the disease severity. Linear prediction model $(Y ＝ －81.803＋1.176x_2＋0.765x_3) with significant $R^2$ was developed for prediction of the disease under natural epiphytotic condition.

• International Journal of Industrial Entomology and Biomaterials
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.11-15
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• 2011

Impact of pruning date, shoot age and weather parameters on the severity and development of grey leaf spot (Pseudocercospora mori) of mulberry was studied. The disease severity (%) increased with increase in shoot age irrespective of pruning date. Maximum disease severity was observed in plants pruned during second week of October and minimum in plants pruned during last week of December. Significant (P<0.05) influence of date of pruning, shoot age and their interaction was observed on the severity of the disease. Apparent infection rate (r) was significantly higher during plant growth period from day-48 to day-55. Average apparent rate was higher in plants pruned during first week of September and least in plants pruned during third and fourth week of December. Multiple regression analysis revealed contribution of various combinations of weather parameters on the disease severity. A linear prediction model [$Y=66.05+(-1.39)x_1+(-0.219)x_4$] with significant $R^2$ was developed for prediction of the disease under natural epiphytotic condition.

• Physical Therapy Korea
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.60-68
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• 2009

Psychsocial factors appear to play an important role in the maintenance and development of chronic disability from low back pain. Fear of pain may be more disabling than the pain itself in patients with nonacute low back pain. The purpose of this study was to identify the contribution of gender, age, depression and pain-related fear to pain intensity and disability in nonacute low back pain patients. This was a cross-sectional survey study of eighty four patients who had low back pain for at least 4 weeks. More than moderate correlations were found between pain intensity, disability, fear-avoidance beliefs and depression. Regression analyses revealed that disability ratings and fear-avoidance beliefs for work activities significantly contributed to the prediction of pain intensity, even when controlling for age, gender and pain duration. Also, fear-avoidance beliefs for physical activity, pain intensity, age and depression, significantly contributed to the prediction of disability, even when controlling for gender and pain duration. These findings suggest that disability scores and fear-avoidance beliefs for work activities are important determinants of pain intensity. They also suggest that fear-avoidance beliefs for physical activity, pain intensity, age and depression are important determinants of disability.

• 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1996.10a
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• pp.119-120
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• 1996

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.536-545
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• 1998

Background: The studies on prediction equations of pulmonary function parameters for adults in Korea have been performed in a reference population mainly consisted of young and middle ages. So they included a relatively few elderly who conducted pulmonary function test frequently in clinic. We established prediction equations of pulmonary function parameters for healthy adults over 50 years old in rural area and compared this results with those of other studies. Therefore we attempted to consider normative values of pulmonary function tests for elderly in Korea. Method: Five hundred thirty-three women and men over 50 years old in rural area were participated. A "healthy" subgroup of 110 women and 32 men were identified by excluding those who had conditions that negatively influenced pulmonary function. We derived prediction equations for FVC, $FEV_1$ and $FEV_1%$ by multiple linear regression method from their age, heights and weights in each sex. Results: Prediction equations for FVC and $FEV_1$ in each sex were derived as follows Male; FVC (L)=0.02488Height(cm)-0.0269Age(years)+0.493 $FEV_1(L)$=0.01874Weight(kg)-0.0282Age(years)+2.906 Female; FVC(L)=0.02160Height(cm)-0.0192Age(years)-0.0125 $FEV_1(L)$=0.01720Height(cm)-0.0194Age(years)+0.3890 Prediction equations for $FEV_1%$ were not derived because $FEV_1%$ didn't have statistically significant terms. Comparing Predicted values that were calculated by substitution into the equations of various studies of mean values of age, heights and weights from this study, FVC and $FEV_1$ values in men of this study were lower than those of other studies. In women, FVC and $FEV_1$ values of this study were as similar as or lower than those of the study conducted for healthy elderly blacks in U.S.A respectively. Conclusion: We have got prediction equations of pulmonary function parameters which were driven from forced expiratory spirogram in adults over 50 years old in rural area. Predicted values of this study were lower than those of other studies which were conducted in Korea. So we consider that the study for spirometry reference values for elderly Korean using the method compatible with ATS recommendation need to be conducted more frequently forward.

• Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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• v.50 no.2
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• pp.191-199
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• 2020

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare sociodemographic characteristics of a normal cognitive group and mild cognitive impairment group, and establish prediction models of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Methods: This study was a secondary data analysis research using data from "the 4th Korea Longitudinal Study of Ageing" of the Korea Employment Information Service. A total of 6,405 individuals, including 1,329 individuals with MCI and 5,076 individuals with normal cognitive abilities, were part of the study. Based on the panel survey items, the research used 28 variables. The methods of analysis included a χ²-test, logistic regression analysis, decision tree analysis, predicted error rate, and an ROC curve calculated using SPSS 23.0 and SAS 13.2. Results: In the MCI group, the mean age was 71.4 and 65.8% of the participants was women. There were statistically significant differences in gender, age, and education in both groups. Predictors of MCI determined by using a logistic regression analysis were gender, age, education, instrumental activity of daily living (IADL), perceived health status, participation group, cultural activities, and life satisfaction. Decision tree analysis of predictors of MCI identified education, age, life satisfaction, and IADL as predictors. Conclusion: The accuracy of logistic regression model for MCI is slightly higher than that of decision tree model. The implementation of the prediction model for MCI established in this study may be utilized to identify middle-aged and elderly people with risks of MCI. Therefore, this study may contribute to the prevention and reduction of dementia.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.53 no.5
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• pp.313-322
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• 2020

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine the incidence and risk factors of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke in farmers compared to the general population and to establish 5-year prediction models. Methods: The farmer cohort and the control cohort were generated using the customized database of the National Health Insurance Service of Korea database and the National Sample Cohort, respectively. The participants were followed from the day of the index general health examination until the events of MI, stroke, or death (up to 5 years). Results: In total, 734 744 participants from the farmer cohort and 238 311 from the control cohort aged between 40 and 70 were included. The age-adjusted incidence of MI was 0.766 and 0.585 per 1000 person-years in the farmer and control cohorts, respectively. That of stroke was 0.559 and 0.321 per 1000 person-years in both cohorts, respectively. In farmers, the risk factors for MI included male sex, age, personal history of hypertension, diabetes, current smoking, creatinine, metabolic syndrome components (blood pressure, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Those for stroke included male sex, age, personal history of hypertension, diabetes, current smoking, high γ-glutamyl transferase, and metabolic syndrome components (blood pressure, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). The prediction model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.735 and 0.760 for MI and stroke, respectively, in the farmer cohort. Conclusions: Farmers had a higher age-adjusted incidence of MI and stroke. They also showed distinct patterns in cardiovascular risk factors compared to the general population.