• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.77-83
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• 2006

Ultrasonic nonlinearity has been considered as a solution for the detection of microcracks or interfacial delamination in a layered structure. The distinguished phenomenon in nonlinear ultrasonics is the generation of higher-order harmonic waves during the propagation. Therefore, in order to quantify the nonlinearity, the conventional method measures a parameter defined as the amplitude ratio of a second-order harmonic component and a fundamental frequency component included in the propagated ultrasonic wave signal. However, its application In field inspection is not easy at the present stage because no standard methodology has yet been made to accurately estimate this parameter. Thus, the aim of this paper is to propose an advanced signal processing technique for the precise estimation of a nonlinear ultrasonic parameter, which is based on power spectral and bispectral analysis. The method of estimating power spectrum and bispectrum of the pulse-like ultrasonic wave signal used in the commercial SAM (scanning acoustic microscopy) equipment is especially considered in this study The usefulness of the proposed method Is confirmed by experiments for a Newton ring with a continuous air gap between two glasses and a real semiconductor sample with local delaminations. The results show that the nonlinear parameter obtained tv the proposed method had a good correlation with the delamination.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.19-26
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• 2017

Surface air temperature ($T_{air}$) is a key variable for the meteorology and climatology, and is a fundamental factor of the terrestrial ecosystem functions. Satellite remote sensing from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides an opportunity to monitor the $T_{air}$. However, the several problems such as frequent cloud cover and mountainous region can result in substantial retrieval error and signal loss in MODIS $T_{air}$. In this study, satellite-based $T_{air}$ was estimated under both clear and cloudy sky conditions in Gangwon Province using Aqua MODIS07 temperature profile product (MYD07_L2) and GCOM-W1 Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) brightness temperature ($T_b$) at 37 GHz frequency, and was compared with the measurements from the Automated Mountain Meteorology Stations (AMOS). The application of ambient temperature lapse rate was performed to improve the retrieval accuracy in mountainous region, which showed the improvement of estimation accuracy approximately 4% of RMSE. A simple pixel-wise regression method combining synergetic information from MYD07_L2 $T_{air}$ and AMSR2 $T_b$ was applied to estimate surface $T_{air}$ for all sky conditions. The $T_{air}$ retrievals showed favorable agreement in comparison with AMOS data (r=0.80, RMSE=7.9K), though the underestimation was appeared in winter season. Substantial $T_{air}$ retrievals were estimated 61.4% (n=2,657) for cloudy sky conditions. The results presented in this study indicate that the satellite remote sensing can produce the surface $T_{air}$ at the complex mountainous region for all sky conditions.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.55-64
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• 2019

The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.