• Title/Summary/Keyword: Adaptation to Uncertainty

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Korean Flood Vulnerability Assessment on Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 국내 홍수 취약성 평가)

  • Lee, Moon-Hwan;Jung, Il-Won;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.8
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    • pp.653-666
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    • 2011
  • The purposes of this study are to suggest flood vulnerability assessment method on climate change with evaluation of this method over the 5 river basins and to present the uncertainty range of assessment using multi-model ensemble scenarios. In this study, the data related to past historical flood events were collected and flood vulnerability index was calculated. The vulnerability assessment were also performed under current climate system. For future climate change scenario, the 39 climate scenarios are obtained from 3 different emission scenarios and 13 GCMs provided by IPCC DDC and 312 hydrology scenarios from 3 hydrological models and 2~3 potential evapotranspiration computation methods for the climate scenarios. Finally, the spatial and temporal changes of flood vulnerability and the range of uncertainty were performed for future S1 (2010~2039), S2 (2040~2069), S3 (2070~2099) period compared to reference S0 (1971~2000) period. The results of this study shows that vulnerable region's were Han and Sumjin, Youngsan river basins under current climate system. Considering the climate scenarios, variability in Nakdong, Gum and Han river basins are large, but Sumjin river basin had little variability due to low basic-stream ability to adaptation.

EER-ASSL: Combining Rollback Learning and Deep Learning for Rapid Adaptive Object Detection

  • Ahmed, Minhaz Uddin;Kim, Yeong Hyeon;Rhee, Phill Kyu
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.4776-4794
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    • 2020
  • We propose a rapid adaptive learning framework for streaming object detection, called EER-ASSL. The method combines the expected error reduction (EER) dependent rollback learning and the active semi-supervised learning (ASSL) for a rapid adaptive CNN detector. Most CNN object detectors are built on the assumption of static data distribution. However, images are often noisy and biased, and the data distribution is imbalanced in a real world environment. The proposed method consists of collaborative sampling and EER-ASSL. The EER-ASSL utilizes the active learning (AL) and rollback based semi-supervised learning (SSL). The AL allows us to select more informative and representative samples measuring uncertainty and diversity. The SSL divides the selected streaming image samples into the bins and each bin repeatedly transfers the discriminative knowledge of the EER and CNN models to the next bin until convergence and incorporation with the EER rollback learning algorithm is achieved. The EER models provide a rapid short-term myopic adaptation and the CNN models an incremental long-term performance improvement. EER-ASSL can overcome noisy and biased labels in varying data distribution. Extensive experiments shows that EER-ASSL obtained 70.9 mAP compared to state-of-the-art technology such as Faster RCNN, SSD300, and YOLOv2.

Development and Application of Robust Decision Making Technique Considering Uncertainty of Climatic Change Scenarios (기후변화 시나리오의 불확실성을 고려하기위한 로버스트 의사결정 기법의 개발 및 적용)

  • Jun, Sang-Mook;Chung, Eun-Sung;Lee, Sang-Ho;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.9
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    • pp.897-907
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    • 2013
  • Climate change is expected to worsen the depletion of streamflow in urban watershed. In this study, we therefore considered the treated wastewater (TWW) use as an adaptation strategy and devised a framework to identify prioritized areas for TWW use. An integrated framework that includes hydrological factors as well as social and environmental components were employed to determine the criteria for decision making. Fuzzy theory was employed to consider the uncertainties in the climate change scenarios and the weights of the performance value. All alternatives were evaluated using the fuzzy TOPSIS method. In addition, statistical method and decision making methods under complete uncertainty were used for robust decision making. As a result, ranking the alternatives using the fuzzy TOPSIS method and robust approach such as maximin, maximax, Hurwicz and equal likelihood criterion mitigated the level of uncertainty and ambiguity in each alternative. The finding of this study can be helpful in prioritizing water resource management projects considering various climate change scenarios.

A Study on Adaptation of Neural Network to Warren Truss Design (와렌 트러스 설계에의 신경망 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Dong Cheol;Lee, Seung Chang;Cho, Young Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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    • v.15 no.4 s.65
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    • pp.413-422
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    • 2003
  • Most engineers tend to rely on their intuition or existing data in formulating structural design or preliminary estimate of various conditions. Because of these variations, the artificial neural network is used as an alternative design model of the warren truss since it can handle uncertainty through the probability method. This research validated the approximate structural design model of the warren truss, with its proper parameter values of the neural network and design process falling within 10 percent torrence of the different designs that resulted between this model and the MIDAS program. The suggested model for the process was adapted for the truss design using the member section table, while time saving and efficiency are based on the allowed range of torrence.

A Study on Selection of Standard Scenarios in Korea for Climate Change (기후변화 표준 시나리오 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.59-73
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    • 2010
  • One of the most important issues for projecting future water resources and establishing climate change adaptation strategies is 'uncertainty'. In Korea, climate change research results were very heterogeneous even in a same basin, but there have been few climate change studies dealt with the uncertainty reduction. This is because emission scenarios, GCMs, downscaling, and rainfall-runoff models that were used in the previous studies were almost all different. In this research, fifty one GCM scenarios based A and B emission scenarios were downloaded and then compared with the observed values for a period from January 2001 to December 2008. The downloaded GCM scenarios in general simulated well the observed but did not simulated well the observed precipitation especially for the flood season in Korea. The accuracy of each GCM scenario was measured with the model efficiency, PDF-based, and Relative Entropy methodology. Among the selected GCM scenarios with three methodologies, the four common GCM scenarios(CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, B1), MIROC3.2medress(NIES, B1), CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, A2), CGCM2.3.2(MRI-M, A1B) were finally selected. Results of the four selected GCMs were heterogeneity and projected increases of precipitation for the Korean Peninsula by from 27.36% to 12.49%, respectively. It seems very risky to rely a water planning or a management policy on use of a single climate change scenario and from this research results. Therefore, the four selected GCM scenarios proposed quantitatively were considered firstly for the water supply in the dry season and the drought management strategy in the Korean Peninsula for the future.

The Hope of the Stroke Patients (뇌졸중환자의 희망)

  • 김이순
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.212-227
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    • 1997
  • Cerebrovascular diseases in Korea is an important health problem since mortality and mobidity have been increased rapidly. It marked the 2nd cause of specific death rates in 1993. The stroke causes physical function disorder due to hemiparalysis and emotional disorder, and stroke patients experience helplessness, powerlessness. sense of alienation and loss of hope. These feelings make the rehabilitation difficult because they lose the will of life. The subjects of the study were seven citizens who live in Pusan, are over 50 years old and belong to low income-level. The data were collected from Jan. to Sep. 1995. The researcher as a caregiver and volunteer made confidence of them and asked for their agreement on the purpose of the study. The subjects expressed their experience as openheartedly as possible. The analysis of the data was made through the phenomenological analytic method suggested by Giorgi, which is as follows ; as an unit of description which include the subject' expressions and the researcher's observation, it is examined the theme that express the hope experience with the subject's language(underlining), and the focal meanings are identified. The focal meaning is the crystalization of the theme, which is written in the language of the researcher. After intergrating the focal meaning and make the situated structural description as the meaning of the hope experience identified on each subject's point. After intergrating the situated structural description and make the general structural description as the meaning of the hope experience identified on total subject's point then the systemizing of the structure of the hope experienced phenomena and the flowing of the conciousness was researched. The conclusions of this study was as follows : The ten sources of hope which the subjects experienced were sorted as under 〈mutual relations to others : spouse, children, relatives, fellow believer. health professioner. associate patient group〉, 〈spiritual dependence〉. 〈recovery of physical function〉. 〈rumination of the past life〉, 〈expectation of the future〉. 〈economic power〉, 〈belief〉, 〈ability〉. 〈spontaneous participation〉 and 〈recovery of roles〉. Their hope was spoken out by the following two kinds of linguistics. First. the hope was expressed in the affirmative expression as follows : 〈 to be dependable〉, 〈to make efforts〉, 〈to keep under control〉, 〈to desire〉, 〈to be pleasant〉, 〈to be peaceful〉, 〈to be grateful〉, 〈to give help〉, 〈self-confidence. Courage〉, 〈to be happy〉, 〈to satisfy oneself〉, 〈to share with others〉, 〈to understand〉 and 〈to be affected, be impressed〉 Second, the hope was expressed in the negative on pression as under : 〈to be distressed〉, 〈to be uneasy〉, 〈to be sorry, be unsatisfied〉 〈despair〉, 〈to abandon〉, 〈to be fearful〉, 〈to suffer〉, 〈to bear a burden〉 〈to be confused〉, 〈to be solitary〉, 〈chest trouble〉, 〈to feel heavy〉 〈grief〉, 〈to be daunted〉, 〈to get angry〉, 〈to be uncomfortable〉, 〈to have something regretable〉 and 〈to feel guilty〉. And their hope was expressed by the following four behavioral expressions : 〈physical sphere〉, 〈psychological sphere〉, 〈social support sphere〉 and 〈spiritual sphere〉. The reaction patterns of their hope experience appeared in the following 4 coping method : 〈conquest type〉, 〈dependence type〉, 〈adaptation type〉 and 〈fate type〉. Finally, in the hope structure the sense of certainty don't always coexict with the sense of uncertainty, When the stroke patients try to search for the best quality of life, the senses of certainty and uncertainty make a continual cyclic system in the hope structure.

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Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change using LCCGIS (LCCGIS를 활용한 취약성 평가방법의 개선)

  • Kim, Young Soo;Lee, Seung Hoon
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.165-178
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    • 2014
  • National and local governmental adaptation plan for climate change will become mandatory in 2015. In order to establish the plan, assessment of vulnerability to climate change needs to be preceded. LCCGIS, a toolkit for vulnerability assessment, has been widely used by many local governments. However, assessment results by LCCGIS are not yet reliable because most of the vulnerability indices applied to LCCGIS have the same value for almost all administrative units in Korea. In this study, proxy variables for hard-collectable indices were introduced, and the results were compared with those without any proxy variables. Vulnerability assessment could be conducted subjectively due to uncertainty. Thus, determination of objective indices, understanding the available data, and changes of indices in local conditions were organized. Results from this study are expected to make vulnerability assessment reliable and contribute to assessing vulnerability to climate change reflecting on local governmental characteristics.

Geospatial Assessment of Frost and Freeze Risk in 'Changhowon Hwangdo' Peach (Prunus persica) Trees as Affected by the Projected Winter Warming in South Korea: III. Identifying Freeze Risk Zones in the Future Using High-Definition Climate Scenarios (겨울기온 상승에 따른 복숭아 나무 '장호원황도' 품종의 결과지에 대한 동상해위험 공간분석: III. 고해상도 기후시나리오에 근거한 동해위험의 미래분포)

  • Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Soo-Ock;Seo, Hee-Cheol;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2009
  • The geographical distribution of freeze risk determines the latitudinal and altitudinal limits and the maximum acreage suitable for fruit production. Any changes in its pattern can affect the policy for climate change adaptation in fruit industry. High-definition digital maps for such applications are not available yet due to uncertainty in the combined responses of temperature and dormancy depth under the future climate scenarios. We applied an empirical freeze risk index, which was derived from the combination of the dormancy depth and threshold temperature inducing freeze damage to dormant buds of 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach trees, to the high-definition digital climate maps prepared for the current (1971-2000), the near future (2011-2040) and the far future (2071-2100) climate scenarios. According to the geospatial analysis at a landscape scale, both the safe and risky areas will be expanded in the future and some of the major peach cultivation areas may encounter difficulty in safe overwintering due to weakening cold tolerance resulting from insufficient chilling. Our test of this method for the two counties representing the major peach cultivation areas in South Korea demonstrated that the migration of risky areas could be detected at a sub-grid scale. The method presented in this study can contribute significantly to climate change adaptation planning in agriculture as a decision aids tool.

Vulnerability Assessment of Landslide by Heavy Rain to Establish Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Local Governments (지자체 기후변화 적응계획 수립지원을 위한 집중호우에 의한 산사태 취약성 평가)

  • Lee, Dong-kun;Kim, Ho Gul;Baek, Gyoung Hye;Seo, Changwan;Kim, Jaeuk;Song, Changkeun;Yu, Jeong Ah
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2012
  • KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration) projected that annual mean temperatures of South Korea will rise $3.8^{\circ}C$ and the annual total precipitation will increase by 17 percent by 2100. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer in South Korea. Thus the risk of landslide by heavy rain is expected to increase. After the landslide of Mt. Umyeon occurred in July 2011, disaster of forest sector is highlighted. Therefore vulnerability assessment of landslide is urgent. However, vulnerability assessment based on local governments was not done yet. In this study, we assess vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain for local governments. We used several scenarios to consider uncertainty of climate change. Through this study, local governments can use the results to establish adaptation plans. Also, the results could be used to decrease vulnerability of landslide.

Applicability of Robust Decision Making for a Water Supply Planning under Climate Change Uncertainty (기후변화 불확실성하의 용수공급계획을 위한 로버스트 의사결정의 적용)

  • Kang, Noel;Kim, Young-Oh;Jung, Eun-Sung;Park, Junehyeong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2013
  • This study examined the applicability of robust decision making (RDM) over standard decision making (SDM) by comparing each result of water supply planning under climate change uncertainties for a Korean dam case. RDM determines the rank of alternatives using the regret criterion which derives less fluctuating alternatives under the risk level regardless of scenarios. RDM and SDM methods were applied to assess hypothetic scenarios of water supply planning for the Andong dam and Imha dam basins. After generating various climate change scenarios and six assumed alternatives, the rank of alternatives was estimated by RDM and SDM respectively. As a result, the average difference in the rank of alternatives between RDM and SDM methods is 0.33~1.33 even though the same scenarios and alternatives were used to be ranked by both of RDM and SDM. This study has significance in terms of an attempt to assess a new approach to decision making for responding to climate change uncertainties in Korea. The effectiveness of RDM under more various conditions should be verified in the future.