• Title/Summary/Keyword: Accuracy assessment

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(A) Case Study on the Financial Solvency of Local Public Enterprises - Focused on Evaluation of Debt management of The GwangJu Metropolitan City Corporation - (지방공기업 재무건전성 사례분석 - 광주광역시도시공사 개발사업 채무관리 평가를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeon, Gwang-Sup
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.75-97
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    • 2015
  • Recently public institutions' debt is growing therefore it became an important issue to the level that the government concerns about the possibility of financial burden to reduce the debt. Especially debt of public enterprises in metropolitan areas was in a serious state where debt in late 2013 was 43.2 trillion, which takes approx. 58.4% of 73.9 trillion of debt of all local public enterprises. Sound financial state of local public enterprises is important to public enterprises in metropolitan areas and it may affect seriously financial stability of local governments when public enterprises have financial problems. However, land supply business to form local industrial complexes or local demand for development of public rental housing business always exist; and vitalizing local economy and creating jobs through these businesses are very necessary to develop the areas. However, for local economic development, industirial land business and public rental housing business are needed. In this study, Gwangju Metropolitan City Corporation Ltd is used as a case study to evaluate the local public financial soundness via debt management assessment i.e.(using) the feasibility analysis in the urban development and housing development. As an improvement measure following the result of analysis, for the enhancement of financial soundness of urban innovation corporation, the government and local government shall evaluate and differentiate market demand, price competitiveness, and infrastructure of new town land development project to improve accuracy of project feasibility analysis. Another important insight is that there should be local government-centered management of liabilities of the local government and local public enterprises with the integrated liability management system to reduce the liability of the corporation and solve the issue of debts for local government. This study is significant in that it has analyzed cases from the theoretical aspect to secure financial soundness of national and local public enterprises.

Landslide Risk Assessment Using HyGIS-Landslide (HyGIS-Landslide를 이용한 산사태 발생 위험도 평가)

  • Park, Jung-Sool;Kim, Kyung-Tak;Choi, Yun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.119-132
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    • 2012
  • Recently, forest soil sediment disasters resulting from locally concentrated heavy rainfall have been occurring frequently in steep slope areas. The importance of landslide hazard map is emerging to analyze landslide vulnerable areas. This study was carried out to develop HyGIS-Landslide based on Hydro Geographic Information System in order to analyze forest soil sediment disaster in the mountainous river basin. HyGIS-Landslide is one of HyGIS components designed by considering the landslide hazard criteria of Korea Forest Service. It could show the distribution of landslide hazard areas after calculating the spatial data. In this system, the user could reset the weight of hazard criteria to reflect the regional characteristics of the landslide area. This component provided user interface that could make the latest spatial data available in the area of interest. HyGIS-Landslide could be applied to the surveyor's compensation score and it was possible to reflect the landslide risk exactly through it. Also, it could be used in topographic analysis techniques providing spatial analysis and making topographical parameters in HyGIS. Finally the accuracy could be acquired by calculating the landslide hazard grade map and landslide mapping data. This study applied HyGIS-Landslide at the Gangwon-do province sample site. As a result, HyGIS-Landslide could be applied to a decision support system searching for mountainous disaster risk region; it could be classified more effectively by re-weighting the landslide hazard criteria.

Parameter Estimation of a Distributed Hydrologic Model using Parallel PEST: Comparison of Impacts by Radar and Ground Rainfall Estimates (병렬 PEST를 이용한 분포형 수문모형의 매개변수 추정: 레이더 및 지상 강우 자료 영향 비교)

  • Noh, Seong Jin;Choi, Yun-Seok;Choi, Cheon-Kyu;Kim, Kyung-Tak
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.11
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    • pp.1041-1052
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    • 2013
  • In this study, we estimate parameters of a distributed hydrologic model, GRM (grid based rainfall-runoff model), using a model-independent parameter estimation tool, PEST. We implement auto calibration of model parameters such as initial soil moisture, multipliers of overland roughness and soil hydraulic conductivity in the Geumho River Catchment and the Gamcheon Catchment using radar rainfall estimates and ground-observed rainfall represented by Thiessen interpolation. Automatic calibration is performed by GRM-MP (multiple projects), a modified version of GRM without GUI (graphic user interface) implementation, and "Parallel PEST" to improve estimation efficiency. Although ground rainfall shows similar or higher cumulative amount compared to radar rainfall in the areal average, high spatial variation is found only in radar rainfall. In terms of accuracy of hydrologic simulations, radar rainfall is equivalent or superior to ground rainfall. In the case of radar rainfall, the estimated multiplier of soil hydraulic conductivity is lower than 1, which may be affected by high rainfall intensity of radar rainfall. Other parameters such as initial soil moisture and the multiplier of overland roughness do not show consistent trends in the calibration results. Overall, calibrated parameters show different patterns in radar and ground rainfall, which should be carefully considered in the rainfall-runoff modelling applications using radar rainfall.

A Prediction Method of the Gas Pipeline Failure Using In-line Inspection and Corrosion Defect Clustering (In-line Inspection과 부식결함 클러스터링을 이용한 가스배관의 고장예측)

  • Kim, Seong-Jun;Choe, Byung Hak;Kim, Woosik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.651-656
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    • 2014
  • Corrosion has a significant influence upon the reliability assessment and the maintenance planning of gas pipeline. Corrosion defects occurred on the underground pipeline can be obtained by conducting periodic in-line inspection (ILI). However, little study has been done for practical use of ILI data. This paper deals with remaining lifetime prediction of the gas pipeline in the presence of corrosion defects. Because a pipeline parameter includes uncertainty in its operation, a probabilistic approach is adopted in this paper. A pipeline fails when its operating pressure is larger than the pipe failure pressure. In order to estimate the failure probability, this paper uses First Order Reliability Method (FORM) which is popular in the field of structural engineering. A well-known Battelle code is chosen as the computational model for the pipe failure pressure. This paper develops a Matlab GUI for illustrating failure probability predictions Our result indicates that clustering of corrosion defects is helpful for improving a prediction accuracy and preventing an unnecessary maintenance.

Predicting Default of Construction Companies Using Bayesian Probabilistic Approach (베이지안 확률적 접근법을 이용한 건설업체 부도 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Sungmoon;Hwang, Jaeyeon;Kwon, Taewhan;Kim, Juhyung;Kim, Jaejun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2016
  • Insolvency of construction companies that play the role of main contractors can lead to clients' losses due to non-fulfillment of construction contracts, and it can have negative effects on the financial soundness of construction companies and suppliers. The construction industry has the cash flow financial characteristic of receiving a project and getting payment based on the progress of the construction. As such, insolvency during project progress can lead to financial losses, which is why the prediction of construction companies is so important. The prediction of insolvency of Korean construction companies are often made through the KMV model from the KMV (Kealhofer McQuown and Vasicek) Company developed in the U.S. during the early 90s, but this model is insufficient in predicting construction companies because it was developed based on credit risk assessment of general companies and banks. In addition, the predictive performance of KMV value's insolvency probability is continuously being questioned due to lack of number of analyzed companies and data. Therefore, in order to resolve such issues, the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach is to be combined with the existing insolvency predictive probability model. This is because if the Prior Probability of Bayesian statistics can be appropriately predicted, reliable Posterior Probability can be predicted through ensured conditionality on the evidence despite the lack of data. Thus, this study is to measure the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) by utilizing the Bayesian Probabilistic Approach with the existing insolvency predictive probability model and predict the accuracy by comparing the result with the EDF of the existing model.

Coastal Wave Hind-Casting Modelling Using ECMWF Wind Dataset (ECMWF 바람자료를 이용한 연안 파랑후측모델링)

  • Kang, Tae-Soon;Park, Jong-Jip;Eum, Ho-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.599-607
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to reproduce long-term wave fields in coastal waters of Korea based on wave hind-casting modelling and discuss its applications. To validate wind data(NCEP, ECMWF, JMA-MSM), comparison of wind data was done with wave buoy data. JMA-MSM predicted wind data with high accuracy. But due to relatively longer period of ECMWF wind data as compared to that of JMA-MSM, wind data set of ECMWF(2001~2014) was used to perform wave hind-casting modelling. Results from numerical modelling were verified with the observed data of wave buoys installed by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) and Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency(KHOA) on offshore waters. The results agree well with observations at buoy stations, especially during the event periods such as a typhoon. Consequently, the wave data reproduced by wave hind-casting modelling was used to obtain missing data in wave observation buoys. The obtained missing data indicated underestimation of maximum wave height during the event period at some points of buoys. Reasons for such underestimation may be due to larger time interval and resolution of the input wind data, water depth and grid size etc. The methodology used in present study can be used to analyze coastal erosion data in conjunction with a wave characteristic of the event period in coastal areas. Additionally, the method can be used in the coastal disaster vulnerability assessment to generate wave points of interest.

Fully Automated Generation of Cloud-free Imagery Using Landsat-8 (Landsat-8을 이용한 자동화된 구름 제거 영상 생성)

  • Kim, Byeong Hee;Kim, Yong;Han, You Kyung;Choi, Won Seok;Kim, Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2014
  • Landsat is one of the popular satellites for observing land surface that is used in various areas including monitoring, detecting and classifying changes in land surface. However, shades, which cloud itself and its shadow, interrupted often clear observation and analysis of ground surface. For this reason, the process of removing shades and restoring original ground surfaces are critical for geospatial users. This study is planned to recommend a methodology for more accurate and clear images of Landsat-8 sensor, which provided two additional bands of costal/aerosol and cirrus. In fact, those bands are known as functioned effectively in detecting and restoring shades. Otsu's thresholding technique to detect clouds, we replaced those detective shades by using experimental and reference images. In accurate assessment, the overall accuracy and kappa coefficients were about 85% and 0.7128, respectively. This indicates that the proposed technique is effective for recovering the original land surface.

Convolutional Neural Networks for Rice Yield Estimation Using MODIS and Weather Data: A Case Study for South Korea (MODIS와 기상자료 기반 회선신경망 알고리즘을 이용한 남한 전역 쌀 생산량 추정)

  • Ma, Jong Won;Nguyen, Cong Hieu;Lee, Kyungdo;Heo, Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.525-534
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    • 2016
  • In South Korea, paddy rice has been consumed over the entire region and it is the main source of income for farmers, thus mathematical model for the estimation of rice yield is required for such decision-making processes in agriculture. The objectives of our study are to: (1) develop rice yield estimation model using Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN), (2) choose hyper-parameters for the model which show the best performance and (3) investigate whether CNN model can effectively predict the rice yield by the comparison with the model using Artificial Neural Networks(ANN). Weather and MODIS(The MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products from April to September in year 2000~2013 were used for the rice yield estimation models and cross-validation was implemented for the accuracy assessment. The CNN and ANN models showed Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of 36.10kg/10a, 48.61kg/10a based on rice points, respectively and 31.30kg/10a, 39.31kg/10a based on 'Si-Gun-Gu' districts, respectively. The CNN models outperformed ANN models and its possibility of application for the field of rice yield estimation in South Korea was proved.

A Preliminary Study on Method for Evaluation and Diagnosis of Late Luteal Phase Dysphoric Disorder in Women - Focusing on Psychiatric Outpatients - (후기 황체기 불쾌기분 장애의 평가 방법 및 진단에 관한 예비 연구 - 정신과 외래환자를 대상으로 -)

  • Yi, Sang-Kyu;Joe, Sook-Haeng;Kwak, Dong-Il
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 1995
  • Reports about the prevalence of premenstrual symptoms state that occurs in 20 to 100% of most reproductive-age women. There is a close association between premenstrual syndrome and affective disorders as well as same some other psychiatric disorders. Late luteal phase dysphoric disorder (LLPDD) is a premenstrual condition defined in DSM-III-R by severe mood changes and other symptoms that repeatedly occur only in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. However, DSM-III-R does not specify how to compute the change from the follicular to the luteal phase or how to determine when the amount of change is great enough to warrant the diagnosis nor how to determine occupational or social functional impairment. This study was conducted to evaluate the nature, severity and magnitude of premenstrual syndrome in women with current psychiatric disorders by using prospective Daily Rating Form(DRF), and to measure symptom changes according to three scoring methods for diagnosing LLPDD. Our study obtains the data about premenstrual changes estimated by DRF from 22 women with psychiatric disorders who had met criteria for major depressive syndrome on the Premenstrual Assessment Form (PAF). The data was scored by each three methods and was determined to meet criteria A for LLPDD. The results are as follows: 1) the subjects, when scored according to the percent change method, effect size method and absolute severity method, met the DSM-III-R criteria A for LLPDD in 36.4% (8 subjects), 14% (3 subjects) and 4.5% (1 subject) of the cases respectively. 2) The items of irritability, anger and impatience were occurred most frequently on the DRF, when it was scored according to the three scoring methods. And the item of breast pain was next frequent according to the effect size method and the percent change method but according to the absolute severity method. 3) The PAF item of impaired social functioning was reported by 16 (73%) of the subjects. 4) 4 (18%) of the subjects met criteria A for LLPDD and reported impaired social functioning. The prevalency of LLPDD according to each method varied. The percent change method yielded the greatest (36.4%), and the absolute seventy method yielded the laest (4.5%), The effect size method yielded an intermediate frequency (14%). Therefore, for maximizing the diagnostic accuracy of LLPDD, a diagnostic procedure including a measure of change (e.q., effect size method, percent change method) as well as confirmed diagnosis by DRF, will be needed. Also, an accurate tool to evaluate impaired social functioning will be required.

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MODFLOW or FEFLOW: A Case Study of Groundwater Model Selection for the Upper Waikato Catchment, New Zealand

  • Weir, Julian;Moore, Dr Catherine;Hadfield, John
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.14-14
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    • 2011
  • Groundwater in the Waikatoregion is a valuable resource for agriculture, water supply, forestry and industries. The 434,000 ha study area comprises the upper Waikato River catchment from the outflow of Lake Taupo (New Zealand's largest lake) through to Lake Karapiro (a man-made hydro lake with high recreational value) (Figure 1). Water quality in the area is naturally high. However, there are indications that this quality is deteriorating as a result of land use intensification and deforestation. Compounding this concern for decision makers is the lag time between land use changes and the realisation of effects on groundwater and surface water quality. It is expected that the effects of land use changes have not yet fully manifested, and additional intensification may take decadesto fully develop, further compounding the deterioration. Consequently, Environment Waikato (EW) have proposed a programme of work to develop a groundwater model to assist managing water quality and appropriate policy development within the catchment. One of the most important and critical decisions of any modelling exercise is the choice of the modelling platform to be used. It must not inhibit future decision making and scenario exploration and needs to allow as accurate representation of reality as feasible. With this in mind, EW requested that two modelling platforms, MODFLOW/MT3DMS and FEFLOW, be assessed for their ability to deliver the long-term modelling objectives for this project. The two platforms were compared alongside various selection criteria including complexity of model set-up and development, computational burden, ease and accuracy of representing surface water-groundwater interactions, precision in predictive scenarios and ease with which the model input and output files could be interrogated. This latter criteria is essential for the thorough assessment of predictive uncertainty with third-party software, such as PEST. This paper will focus on the attributes of each modelling platform and the comparison of the two approaches against the key criteria in the selection process. Primarily due to the ease of handling and developing input files and interrogating output files, MODFLOW/MT3DMS was selected as the preferred platform. Other advantages and disadvantages of the two modelling platforms were somewhat balanced. A preliminary regional groundwater numerical model of the study area was subsequently constructed. The model simulates steady state groundwater and surface water flows using MODFLOW and transient contaminant transport with MT3DMS, focussing on nitrate nitrogen (as a conservative solute). Geological information for this project was provided by GNS Science. Professional peer review was completed by Dr. Vince Bidwell (of Lincoln Environmental).

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