• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ability of prediction and application

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Financial Application of Time Series Prediction based on Genetic Programming

  • Yoshihara, Ikuo;Aoyama, Tomoo;Yasunaga, Moritoshi
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.524-524
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    • 2000
  • We have been developing a method to build one-step-ahead prediction models for time series using genetic programming (GP). Our model building method consists of two stages. In the first stage, functional forms of the models are inherited from their parent models through crossover operation of GP. In the second stage, the parameters of the newborn model arc optimized based on an iterative method just like the back propagation. The proposed method has been applied to various kinds of time series problems. An application to the seismic ground motion was presented in the KACC'99, and since then the method has been improved in many aspects, for example, additions of new node functions, improvements of the node functions, and new exploitations of many kinds of mutation operators. The new ideas and trials enhance the ability to generate effective and complicated models and reduce CPU time. Today, we will present a couple of financial applications, espc:cially focusing on gold price prediction in Tokyo market.

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The Effects of NIE on Statistics Learning of Elementary School (초등학교 통계 영역에서 NIE를 통한 학습이 학업성취에 미치는 효과)

  • Seo, Ji-Young;Pyo, Yong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.499-524
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we applied NIE(Newspaper In Education) to the course of study for statistics unit of elementary mathematics which can improve students' abilities of concept of statistics, analyzing data and problem solving so they can do these with direct activity by themselves and find out how NIE effects on children's learning achievement for statistics unit and more effective solution for the course of study for elementary mathematics.

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The Application of Machine Learning Algorithm In The Analysis of Tissue Microarray; for the Prediction of Clinical Status

  • Cho, Sung-Bum;Kim, Woo-Ho;Kim, Ju-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Bioinformatics Conference
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    • 2005.09a
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    • pp.366-370
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    • 2005
  • Tissue microarry is one of the high throughput technologies in the post-genomic era. Using tissue microarray, the researchers are able to investigate large amount of gene expressions at the level of DNA, RNA, and protein The important aspect of tissue microarry is its ability to assess a lot of biomarkers which have been used in clinical practice. To manipulate the categorical data of tissue microarray, we applied Bayesian network classifier algorithm. We identified that Bayesian network classifier algorithm could analyze tissue microarray data and integrating prior knowledge about gastric cancer could achieve better performance result. The results showed that relevant integration of prior knowledge promote the prediction accuracy of survival status of the immunohistochemical tissue microarray data of 18 tumor suppressor genes. In conclusion, the application of Bayesian network classifier seemed appropriate for the analysis of the tissue microarray data with clinical information.

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Analyzing Machine Learning Techniques for Fault Prediction Using Web Applications

  • Malhotra, Ruchika;Sharma, Anjali
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.751-770
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    • 2018
  • Web applications are indispensable in the software industry and continuously evolve either meeting a newer criteria and/or including new functionalities. However, despite assuring quality via testing, what hinders a straightforward development is the presence of defects. Several factors contribute to defects and are often minimized at high expense in terms of man-hours. Thus, detection of fault proneness in early phases of software development is important. Therefore, a fault prediction model for identifying fault-prone classes in a web application is highly desired. In this work, we compare 14 machine learning techniques to analyse the relationship between object oriented metrics and fault prediction in web applications. The study is carried out using various releases of Apache Click and Apache Rave datasets. En-route to the predictive analysis, the input basis set for each release is first optimized using filter based correlation feature selection (CFS) method. It is found that the LCOM3, WMC, NPM and DAM metrics are the most significant predictors. The statistical analysis of these metrics also finds good conformity with the CFS evaluation and affirms the role of these metrics in the defect prediction of web applications. The overall predictive ability of different fault prediction models is first ranked using Friedman technique and then statistically compared using Nemenyi post-hoc analysis. The results not only upholds the predictive capability of machine learning models for faulty classes using web applications, but also finds that ensemble algorithms are most appropriate for defect prediction in Apache datasets. Further, we also derive a consensus between the metrics selected by the CFS technique and the statistical analysis of the datasets.

LM-BP algorithm application for odour classification and concentration prediction using MOS sensor array (MOS 센서어레이를 이용한 냄새 분류 및 농도추정을 위한 LM-BP 알고리즘 응용)

  • 최찬석;변형기;김정도
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.210-210
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we have investigated the properties of multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for odour patterns classification and concentration estimation simultaneously. When the MLP may be has a fast convergence speed with small error and excellent mapping ability for classification, it can be possible to use for classification and concentration prediction of volatile chemicals simultaneously. However, the conventional MLP, which is back-Propagation of error based on the steepest descent method, was difficult to use for odour classification and concentration estimation simultaneously, because it is slow to converge and may fall into the local minimum. We adapted the Levenberg-Marquardt(LM) algorithm [4,5] having advantages both the steepest descent method and Gauss-Newton method instead of the conventional steepest descent method for the simultaneous classification and concentration estimation of odours. And, We designed the artificial odour sensing system(Electronic Nose) and applied LM-BP algorithm for classification and concentration prediction of VOC gases.

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A Study on the Prediction Diagnosis System Improvement by Error Terms and Learning Methodologies Application (오차항과 러닝 기법을 활용한 예측진단 시스템 개선 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Myung Joon;Park, Youngho;Kim, Tai Kyoo;Jung, Jae-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.783-793
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to apply the machine and deep learning methodology on error terms which are continuously auto-generated on the sensors with specific time period and prove the improvement effects of power generator prediction diagnosis system by comparing detection ability. Methods: The SVM(Support Vector Machine) and MLP(Multi Layer Perception) learning procedures were applied for predicting the target values and sequentially producing the error terms for confirming the detection improvement effects of suggested application. For checking the effectiveness of suggested procedures, several detection methodologies such as Cusum and EWMA were used for the comparison. Results: The statistical analysis result shows that without noticing the sequential trivial changes on current diagnosis system, suggested approach based on the error term diagnosis is sensing the changes in the very early stages. Conclusion: Using pattern of error terms as a diagnosis tool for the safety control process with SVM and MLP learning procedure, unusual symptoms could be detected earlier than current prediction system. By combining the suggested error term management methodology with current process seems to be meaningful for sustainable safety condition by early detecting the symptoms.

A neural-based predictive model of the compressive strength of waste LCD glass concrete

  • Kao, Chih-Han;Wang, Chien-Chih;Wang, Her-Yung
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.457-465
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    • 2017
  • The Taiwanese liquid crystal display (LCD) industry has traditionally produced a huge amount of waste glass that is placed in landfills. Waste glass recycling can reduce the material costs of concrete and promote sustainable environmental protection activities. Concrete is always utilized as structural material; thus, the concrete compressive strength with a variety of mixtures must be studied using predictive models to achieve more precise results. To create an efficient waste LCD glass concrete (WLGC) design proportion, the related studies utilized a multivariable regression analysis to develop a compressive strength waste LCD glass concrete equation. The mix design proportion for waste LCD glass and the compressive strength relationship is complex and nonlinear. This results in a prediction weakness for the multivariable regression model during the initial growing phase of the compressive strength of waste LCD glass concrete. Thus, the R ratio for the predictive multivariable regression model is 0.96. Neural networks (NN) have a superior ability to handle nonlinear relationships between multiple variables by incorporating supervised learning. This study developed a multivariable prediction model for the determination of waste LCD glass concrete compressive strength by analyzing a series of laboratory test results and utilizing a neural network algorithm that was obtained in a related prior study. The current study also trained the prediction model for the compressive strength of waste LCD glass by calculating the effects of several types of factor combinations, such as the different number of input variables and the relevant filter for input variables. These types of factor combinations have been adjusted to enhance the predictive ability based on the training mechanism of the NN and the characteristics of waste LCD glass concrete. The selection priority of the input variable strategy is that evaluating relevance is better than adding dimensions for the NN prediction of the compressive strength of WLGC. The prediction ability of the model is examined using test results from the same data pool. The R ratio was determined to be approximately 0.996. Using the appropriate input variables from neural networks, the model validation results indicated that the model prediction attains greater accuracy than the multivariable regression model during the initial growing phase of compressive strength. Therefore, the neural-based predictive model for compressive strength promotes the application of waste LCD glass concrete.

A Study on the Comparison of course Stabilities between Fine-form Ships and Full-form Ships (척형선박과 비대형선박의 침로안전성의 비교에 관한 연구)

  • 황해성;이동섭;윤점동
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 1992
  • Handling performance of a vessel is greatly related with her steering characteristics which consist of two kinds of motion characteristics ; namely course stability and turning ability. The correct prediction of the qualities, especially the steering characteristics is as much important in ship handling as in ship design. It is the purpose of this paper to provide ships handlers better understanding of steering characteristics and then to help them in safe controlling and maneuvering of vessels presenting distinct inherent steering characteristic difference that lies between a fine-form vessel and full-form vessel. The authors calculated dynamic course stabilities of two kinds of ideal models, one of which represents a fine-form ship and the other a full-form ship, based on hydrodynamic data of forces and moments obtained by model tests in maneuvering tanks. The result of calculations indicated that a ship of full-form configuration has inhernet course instability. Though significant nonlinearties affect ship montions in maneuvers, application of linear theory is sufficient for prediction of the maneuvering characteristics of vessels on calm waters for handling reference.

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Application of Self-Organizing Map Theory for the Development of Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Model (강우-유출 예측모형 개발을 위한 자기조직화 이론의 적용)

  • Park, Sung Chun;Jin, Young Hoon;Kim, Yong Gu
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4B
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2006
  • The present study compositely applied the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a kind of artificial neural networks (ANNs), and the back propagation algorithm (BPA) for the rainfall-runoff prediction model taking account of the irregular variation of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall. To solve the problems from the previous studies on ANNs, such as the overestimation of low flow during the dry season, the underestimation of runoff during the flood season and the persistence phenomenon, in which the predicted values continuously represent the preceding runoffs, we introduced SOM theory for the preprocessing in the prediction model. The theory is known that it has the pattern classification ability. The method proposed in the present research initially includes the classification of the rainfall-runoff relationship using SOM and the construction of the respective models according to the classification by SOM. The individually constructed models used the data corresponding to the respectively classified patterns for the runoff prediction. Consequently, the method proposed in the present study resulted in the better prediction ability of runoff than that of the past research using the usual application of ANNs and, in addition, there were no such problems of the under/over-estimation of runoff and the persistence.

A Study on Deflection of Tool in Ball-End Milling (볼 엔드밀 가공시 공구변형에 관한 연구)

  • Du, Seung;Seo, Han-Won;Yoo, Ki-Hyun;Seo, Nam-Sub
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2000.05a
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    • pp.721-724
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a prediction of tool deflection and resulting machining error fur sculptured surface productions in the ball-end milling process. Due to the different materials and the dimensions of the tool holder and cutter, a cantilever hem model with three uniform sections is proposed fur the tool deflection model. The ability of this model has been verified by a machining experiment. In this study, cutting force and machining error are investigated. This paper provides the prediction of machining error for sculptured surface to improve machining quality for industrial application.

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