• 제목/요약/키워드: Ability of prediction and application

검색결과 61건 처리시간 0.031초

Financial Application of Time Series Prediction based on Genetic Programming

  • Yoshihara, Ikuo;Aoyama, Tomoo;Yasunaga, Moritoshi
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2000년도 제15차 학술회의논문집
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    • pp.524-524
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    • 2000
  • We have been developing a method to build one-step-ahead prediction models for time series using genetic programming (GP). Our model building method consists of two stages. In the first stage, functional forms of the models are inherited from their parent models through crossover operation of GP. In the second stage, the parameters of the newborn model arc optimized based on an iterative method just like the back propagation. The proposed method has been applied to various kinds of time series problems. An application to the seismic ground motion was presented in the KACC'99, and since then the method has been improved in many aspects, for example, additions of new node functions, improvements of the node functions, and new exploitations of many kinds of mutation operators. The new ideas and trials enhance the ability to generate effective and complicated models and reduce CPU time. Today, we will present a couple of financial applications, espc:cially focusing on gold price prediction in Tokyo market.

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초등학교 통계 영역에서 NIE를 통한 학습이 학업성취에 미치는 효과 (The Effects of NIE on Statistics Learning of Elementary School)

  • 서지영;표용수
    • 한국학교수학회논문집
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.499-524
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    • 2010
  • 본 본문에서는 학생 스스로 활동을 통해 통계적 개념, 자료 분석력, 문제해결력 등을 기를 수 있는 NIE(Newspaper in Education)을 통한 학습을 초등수학 학습지도에 적용하여, NIE를 활용한 학습이 초등학생의 통계 영역 학업성취에 미치는 효과를 살펴보고, 보다 효율적인 초등수학 학습지도 방안을 찾아보고자 한다.

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The Application of Machine Learning Algorithm In The Analysis of Tissue Microarray; for the Prediction of Clinical Status

  • Cho, Sung-Bum;Kim, Woo-Ho;Kim, Ju-Han
    • 한국생물정보학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국생물정보시스템생물학회 2005년도 BIOINFO 2005
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    • pp.366-370
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    • 2005
  • Tissue microarry is one of the high throughput technologies in the post-genomic era. Using tissue microarray, the researchers are able to investigate large amount of gene expressions at the level of DNA, RNA, and protein The important aspect of tissue microarry is its ability to assess a lot of biomarkers which have been used in clinical practice. To manipulate the categorical data of tissue microarray, we applied Bayesian network classifier algorithm. We identified that Bayesian network classifier algorithm could analyze tissue microarray data and integrating prior knowledge about gastric cancer could achieve better performance result. The results showed that relevant integration of prior knowledge promote the prediction accuracy of survival status of the immunohistochemical tissue microarray data of 18 tumor suppressor genes. In conclusion, the application of Bayesian network classifier seemed appropriate for the analysis of the tissue microarray data with clinical information.

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Analyzing Machine Learning Techniques for Fault Prediction Using Web Applications

  • Malhotra, Ruchika;Sharma, Anjali
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.751-770
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    • 2018
  • Web applications are indispensable in the software industry and continuously evolve either meeting a newer criteria and/or including new functionalities. However, despite assuring quality via testing, what hinders a straightforward development is the presence of defects. Several factors contribute to defects and are often minimized at high expense in terms of man-hours. Thus, detection of fault proneness in early phases of software development is important. Therefore, a fault prediction model for identifying fault-prone classes in a web application is highly desired. In this work, we compare 14 machine learning techniques to analyse the relationship between object oriented metrics and fault prediction in web applications. The study is carried out using various releases of Apache Click and Apache Rave datasets. En-route to the predictive analysis, the input basis set for each release is first optimized using filter based correlation feature selection (CFS) method. It is found that the LCOM3, WMC, NPM and DAM metrics are the most significant predictors. The statistical analysis of these metrics also finds good conformity with the CFS evaluation and affirms the role of these metrics in the defect prediction of web applications. The overall predictive ability of different fault prediction models is first ranked using Friedman technique and then statistically compared using Nemenyi post-hoc analysis. The results not only upholds the predictive capability of machine learning models for faulty classes using web applications, but also finds that ensemble algorithms are most appropriate for defect prediction in Apache datasets. Further, we also derive a consensus between the metrics selected by the CFS technique and the statistical analysis of the datasets.

MOS 센서어레이를 이용한 냄새 분류 및 농도추정을 위한 LM-BP 알고리즘 응용 (LM-BP algorithm application for odour classification and concentration prediction using MOS sensor array)

  • 최찬석;변형기;김정도
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2000년도 제15차 학술회의논문집
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    • pp.210-210
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we have investigated the properties of multi-layer perceptron (MLP) for odour patterns classification and concentration estimation simultaneously. When the MLP may be has a fast convergence speed with small error and excellent mapping ability for classification, it can be possible to use for classification and concentration prediction of volatile chemicals simultaneously. However, the conventional MLP, which is back-Propagation of error based on the steepest descent method, was difficult to use for odour classification and concentration estimation simultaneously, because it is slow to converge and may fall into the local minimum. We adapted the Levenberg-Marquardt(LM) algorithm [4,5] having advantages both the steepest descent method and Gauss-Newton method instead of the conventional steepest descent method for the simultaneous classification and concentration estimation of odours. And, We designed the artificial odour sensing system(Electronic Nose) and applied LM-BP algorithm for classification and concentration prediction of VOC gases.

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오차항과 러닝 기법을 활용한 예측진단 시스템 개선 방안 연구 (A Study on the Prediction Diagnosis System Improvement by Error Terms and Learning Methodologies Application)

  • 김명준;박영호;김태규;정재석
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제47권4호
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    • pp.783-793
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to apply the machine and deep learning methodology on error terms which are continuously auto-generated on the sensors with specific time period and prove the improvement effects of power generator prediction diagnosis system by comparing detection ability. Methods: The SVM(Support Vector Machine) and MLP(Multi Layer Perception) learning procedures were applied for predicting the target values and sequentially producing the error terms for confirming the detection improvement effects of suggested application. For checking the effectiveness of suggested procedures, several detection methodologies such as Cusum and EWMA were used for the comparison. Results: The statistical analysis result shows that without noticing the sequential trivial changes on current diagnosis system, suggested approach based on the error term diagnosis is sensing the changes in the very early stages. Conclusion: Using pattern of error terms as a diagnosis tool for the safety control process with SVM and MLP learning procedure, unusual symptoms could be detected earlier than current prediction system. By combining the suggested error term management methodology with current process seems to be meaningful for sustainable safety condition by early detecting the symptoms.

A neural-based predictive model of the compressive strength of waste LCD glass concrete

  • Kao, Chih-Han;Wang, Chien-Chih;Wang, Her-Yung
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.457-465
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    • 2017
  • The Taiwanese liquid crystal display (LCD) industry has traditionally produced a huge amount of waste glass that is placed in landfills. Waste glass recycling can reduce the material costs of concrete and promote sustainable environmental protection activities. Concrete is always utilized as structural material; thus, the concrete compressive strength with a variety of mixtures must be studied using predictive models to achieve more precise results. To create an efficient waste LCD glass concrete (WLGC) design proportion, the related studies utilized a multivariable regression analysis to develop a compressive strength waste LCD glass concrete equation. The mix design proportion for waste LCD glass and the compressive strength relationship is complex and nonlinear. This results in a prediction weakness for the multivariable regression model during the initial growing phase of the compressive strength of waste LCD glass concrete. Thus, the R ratio for the predictive multivariable regression model is 0.96. Neural networks (NN) have a superior ability to handle nonlinear relationships between multiple variables by incorporating supervised learning. This study developed a multivariable prediction model for the determination of waste LCD glass concrete compressive strength by analyzing a series of laboratory test results and utilizing a neural network algorithm that was obtained in a related prior study. The current study also trained the prediction model for the compressive strength of waste LCD glass by calculating the effects of several types of factor combinations, such as the different number of input variables and the relevant filter for input variables. These types of factor combinations have been adjusted to enhance the predictive ability based on the training mechanism of the NN and the characteristics of waste LCD glass concrete. The selection priority of the input variable strategy is that evaluating relevance is better than adding dimensions for the NN prediction of the compressive strength of WLGC. The prediction ability of the model is examined using test results from the same data pool. The R ratio was determined to be approximately 0.996. Using the appropriate input variables from neural networks, the model validation results indicated that the model prediction attains greater accuracy than the multivariable regression model during the initial growing phase of compressive strength. Therefore, the neural-based predictive model for compressive strength promotes the application of waste LCD glass concrete.

척형선박과 비대형선박의 침로안전성의 비교에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Comparison of course Stabilities between Fine-form Ships and Full-form Ships)

  • 황해성;이동섭;윤점동
    • 한국항해학회지
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 1992
  • Handling performance of a vessel is greatly related with her steering characteristics which consist of two kinds of motion characteristics ; namely course stability and turning ability. The correct prediction of the qualities, especially the steering characteristics is as much important in ship handling as in ship design. It is the purpose of this paper to provide ships handlers better understanding of steering characteristics and then to help them in safe controlling and maneuvering of vessels presenting distinct inherent steering characteristic difference that lies between a fine-form vessel and full-form vessel. The authors calculated dynamic course stabilities of two kinds of ideal models, one of which represents a fine-form ship and the other a full-form ship, based on hydrodynamic data of forces and moments obtained by model tests in maneuvering tanks. The result of calculations indicated that a ship of full-form configuration has inhernet course instability. Though significant nonlinearties affect ship montions in maneuvers, application of linear theory is sufficient for prediction of the maneuvering characteristics of vessels on calm waters for handling reference.

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강우-유출 예측모형 개발을 위한 자기조직화 이론의 적용 (Application of Self-Organizing Map Theory for the Development of Rainfall-Runoff Prediction Model)

  • 박성천;진영훈;김용구
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제26권4B호
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    • pp.389-398
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 강우의 시 공간적 분포의 불규칙한 변동성을 고려한 강우-유출예측모형을 위해 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Networks: ANNs)의 기법의 일종인 자기조직화(Self Organizing Map: SOM) 이론과 역전파 학습 알고리즘(Back Propagation Algorithm: BPA을 복합적으로 이용하였다. 기존의 인공신경망 연구에서 야기된 저 갈수기의 유출량에 대한 과대평가, 홍수기의 유출량에 대한 과소평가, 예측값이 연속적으로 선행 유출량을 나타내는 Persistence 현상을 해결하기 위하여 패턴분류 성능을 지닌 SOM 이론을 예측모형의 전처리 과정으로 이용하였다. 먼저, 본 연구에서 제안한 방법은 SOM에 의해 강우-유출 관계를 분류하고, SOM에 의한 분류에 따라 각각의 모형을 구성한다. 개별적으로 구축된 모형은 유출량의 예측을 위해 각각의 양상에 따라 분류된 자료를 이용한다. 결과적으로 본 연구에서 제안한 방법은 과거의 인공신경망의 일반적인 적용에 의한 결과보다 더 나은 예측능력을 보여주었으며, 더불어 유출량의 과소 및 과대추정과 Persistence 현상과 같은 문제점이 나타나지 않았다.

볼 엔드밀 가공시 공구변형에 관한 연구 (A Study on Deflection of Tool in Ball-End Milling)

  • 두승;서한원;유기현;서남섭
    • 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정밀공학회 2000년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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    • pp.721-724
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a prediction of tool deflection and resulting machining error fur sculptured surface productions in the ball-end milling process. Due to the different materials and the dimensions of the tool holder and cutter, a cantilever hem model with three uniform sections is proposed fur the tool deflection model. The ability of this model has been verified by a machining experiment. In this study, cutting force and machining error are investigated. This paper provides the prediction of machining error for sculptured surface to improve machining quality for industrial application.

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