• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.137-145
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• 2020

The aim of this study is to find out the time-series nexus of public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. For an upper-middle income country, Malaysia had experienced over 50% ratio of debt to GDP since 2009 until now. The question arises is whether this trend is healthy to the economy. With a focus into the debt-to-GDP ratio from 1970-2015, this study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between public debt and economic growth in Malaysia. This study used secondary data by collecting time-series data (1970-2015) from the World Bank Data and Bank Negara Malaysia. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied in this study to examine the relationship between debt and economic growth. Based on ARDL framework, it shows that there is a long-run effect between the debt and economic growth in Malaysia. While the significance value of Error Correction Term shows that there is a long-run adjustment in the short run. Generally, this study found government expenditures, in the long run, strongly influence the GDP per capita. Through the findings, the government expenditures could increase the GDP per capita. The study also reveals that any increment of the debt ratio will result in reduction of the GDP per capita.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.61-89
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• 2017

This study aims to estimate empirically the respective impacts of R&D expenditure, R&D labor, overseas direct investment, commodity trade balance, and technology trade openness on technology balance of payments. To examine the presence of co-integration between them, this paper employed the ARDL-bounds test using time series data from 1981 to 2014, and the result shows that there is a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among them. Furthermore, we estimated long- and short-run coefficients of the technology balance of payments with respect to each variables based on long-run equilibrium equation and error correction model. As a result, the technology balance of payments respond negatively to R&D labor and technology trade openness, and R&D expenditure does produce positive effects in the long-run, while coefficients of overseas direct investment and commodity trade balance in the long-run are not statistically significant. Besides, according to results of error correction model, overseas direct investment only has clearly a positive effects in the short-run, in contrast, the short-term relationships between the other variables and the technology balance of payments could not definitively derived. This implies that it is necessary to procure and cultivate talented personnel, as well as to enlarge gradually technology trade size in order to improve technology balance of payments from a long-term point of view.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.37-46
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• 2020

The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.19 no.7
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• pp.559-573
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• 2019

The aim of this study is to investigate how social welfare expenditure affects to economic growth in Northern European countries, and such implication might be compared with Korean episode. ARDL cointegration model is employed for emplrical analysis. The model is usefully utilized to analyze short-run and long-run relationships of the variables in general. The result suggests that private welfare expenditure is effective in Korea and Finland even though the magnitude of effectiveness is quite a small scale. On the other hand, public welfare expenditure is effective in Denmark and Norway. However, none of social welfare expenditures affects in economic growth in Sweden. And, therefore, it could be concluded that although social welfare expenditures contribute to improve income inequality, these hardly support income-led growth strategy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.289-294
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• 2020

The study of environmental pollution plays an important role in controlling emissions in the production activities of FDI enterprises as well as export goods. Vietnam is a country with a large proportion of FDI contribution and high export value. Therefore, there should be studies to assess the actual effects of FDI and the openness of the economy (trade) on the environment. Therefore, the authors conduct research on the role of FDI and trade on environmental quality in Vietnam. With data collected from 1990 to 2018 (from the period of Vietnam's economy opening up) through the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, the results show that FDI has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in the short term but has no impact on the long-term (In this study, CO2 is considered to represent environmental quality). The trade has a positive impact on CO2 emissions in both the short term and long term. The results of the study show the actual shortcomings of FDI as well as production activities in the export enterprises in Vietnam. From the results of this research, the author also provides the causes and remedies to control of CO2 emissions from two activities of foreign direct investment and trade.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.77-82
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• 2020

Purpose: In the period of international integration, how is the implementation of intellectual property regulation in developing countries? Do intellectual property rights help attract more Foreign direct investment (FDI)? This study aims to show the effect of intellectual property rights, reflect in the number of patent registered (Patent distribution into two components: Patent_residents and Patent_non-residents) on FDI attraction in Vietnam. Research design, data and methodology: Using Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the data collected from 1990 to 2018 with EViews version 9 software. Conclusions: The results indicate that the number of patent protection has a positive effect on FDI in both short term and long term. In particular, only patent registration of foreign individuals and organizations has a significant positive effect on attracting FDI, while that of Vietnamese patents is not statistically significant. From the results of this study, we provide some recommendations to help attract FDI based on raising awareness of intellectual property rights: Increase international cooperation for innovation to learn and encourage patent; Improve the capac ity of inventing as well as the ability to register patents of Vietnamese people; Government agencies are tasked to support a nd review registration procedures; Encouraging patent registration based on the patent.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.8
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• pp.533-542
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• 2020

This study estimates the nature of the relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment in the Philippines over the 2001-2017 period. The paper employed a range of cointegrating regression models, namely, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models, dynamic OLS, fully modified OLS, and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) estimation techniques. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) was also performed to determine the causal link of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The ARDL bounds testing approach, Johansen-Juselius (JJ) and Engle-Granger (EG) cointegration models confirmed the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. The long-run coefficients from JJ and dynamic OLS show significant long-run and positive relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. While results of the long-run coefficients from fully modified OLS and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) found that only entrepreneurship has significant and positive relationship with youth unemployment in the long-run. The Granger causality based on error correction model (ECM) estimates show evidence of long-run causal relationship of entrepreneurship and business confidence on youth unemployment. In the short-run, increases in entrepreneurship and business confidence causes youth unemployment to decrease.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.617-626
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• 2021

The study examines the existence of twin deficit in two emerging economies (Turkey and Iran) and also investigates the relation of twin deficit with specific macroeconomic indicators such as the GDP, money supply, foreign direct investment, and the interest rate both in short and long-run periods. The twin-deficit concept refers to a situation where the current account deficit and budget deficits exist in the same corresponding period of an economy. This study employs the Bound Test Autoregressive lag distributed (ARDL) model on time-series quarterly secondary data of Turkey and Iran from 1992 to 2019. The stationarity of variables has been ensured through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test at the level and the first difference. The results reveal the existence of a twin deficit in both the short and long-run periods only in Iran. Its existence could not be observed in the Turkish economy. The findings suggest a positive relationship between twin deficit and GDP, and a negative relationship between twin deficit and FDI and M2. At the same time, the relationship of the twin deficit with interest rate could not be found in the Iranian economy. The findings may be helpful for economic managers of both countries in executing their economic policies.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.99-110
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• 2021

This study aims to examine empirically the industry and economic fundamental factors that affect the stock prices of the leading palm oil company in Indonesia. The dynamics of stock price are analyzed using the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model both for symmetric and asymmetric effects. The data used in this study are monthly data for the period from 2008:01 to 2020:03. In the long run, the company stock price moves in line with the competitor company stock price at the current time. The palm oil price has a positive effect on the stock price. Meanwhile, inflation negatively affects the stock price in the short run. The estimated equilibrium correction coefficient indicates a reasonably quick correction of the distortion of the stock price equilibrium in monthly dynamics. However, fundamental factors have asymmetric effects, especially the response of stock price when these factors decrease rather than increase in the short run. Stock prices that are responsive to declines in fundamental performance should be of particular concern to both investors and management in their strategic decision making. The results of this study will contribute to the enrichment of literature related to stock prices from the viewpoint of economic analysis on firm-level data.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.49-59
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• 2022

This paper examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on trade balance in Malaysia by using quarterly data from year 2000 until 2019. Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model was used to extract the volatility component of real exchange rate before examining its impact on trade balance. Furthermore, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to investigate the long-run relationship and short-run dynamic between trade balance, money supply, national income and volatility of exchange rate. Empirical results show the existence of co-movement between variables under study in the long-run. However, the results also suggest that volatility of real exchange rate does not significantly affect trade balance neither in the long-run nor short-run. The risk which is associated in the movement of exchange rate do not influence trader's behaviour toward Malaysia exports and imports. Thus, it should be note that any depreciation or appreciation in Malaysian Ringgit do not have an impact towards trade balance either it is being further improved or deteriorates. Hence, exchange rate volatility may not be too concern for policymakers. This may be partially due to manage floating exchange rate regime that has been adopted by Malaysia eventually eliminated the element of risk in the currency market.