• Title/Summary/Keyword: ARDL

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Fiscal Causal Hypotheses and Panel Cointegration Analysis for Sustainable Economic Growth in ASEAN

  • MARIMUTHU, Maran;KHAN, Hanana;BANGASH, Romana
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2021
  • This study aims to examine the causal links between the fiscal components, i.e., government expenditures (GE) and government revenues (GR), and their impact on the economic growth of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. This analysis considered secondary panel data from 1990 to 2019 at an annual frequency. The data is obtained from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank Database. A panel cointegration and panel DH causality (Dumitrescu and Hurlin) approach was employed on financial data at an annual frequency from 1990 to 2019. The findings from panel unit root and panel cointegration tests demonstrate that, at first, all the variables are stationary and cointegrated. The panel ARDL disclosed that GE has a long-run connection with GDP, is significantly and positively associated with economic growth in the long run, whereas GR is significant in the short run. The contribution of GE is high in sustaining economic growth as compared to GR. Also, cointegration regression disclosed that GE is more sensitive toward GDP, while GR is less elastic. Lastly, the findings reveal that bidirectional causality exists between GE and GR variables. These results have policy implications for sustainable economic growth in the ASEAN region.

The Relationship Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh

  • GOLDER, Uttam;SHEIKH, Md. Imran;SULTANA, Fatema
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.625-633
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    • 2021
  • Bangladesh's growing foreign aid has sparked controversy over whether it affects the country's economic performance. This review assesses foreign aid's influence on the country's economic growth with annual data covering the 1989-2018 period. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to achieve the research objective, and the empirical results indicate a substantial and robust impact of foreign assistance on economic growth. The outcome further reveal that domestic investment also contributes significantly to the country's economic evolution. However, trade openness plays a substantial positive role in the short run, although the impact is immaterial in the long run. The empirical findings indicate that the association between aid, domestic investment, and growth has a confident meaningful effect at 1 per cent level in the long run, whereas aid influences more than domestic investment. However, in the short run, aid, domestic investment, trade openness, and growth show positive and noteworthy response also at 1 percent level. This review undertakes a detailed analysis about the country's economic growth, and grounded on its outcome, this work suggests that focus should be placed more on creating domestic investment, promoting more export, and allocation of aid should be determined by the relative needs of the country.

Economic Growth, Financial Development, Transportation Capacity, and Environmental Degradation: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Van Chien;VU, Duc Binh;NGUYEN, Thi Hoang Yen;PHAM, Cong Do;HUYNH, Tuyet Ngan
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.93-104
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    • 2021
  • In recent years, there has been a substantial theoretical and empirical study on the role that financial market development has significantly played in promoting economic growth and development in the world. The development of an economy requires the financial industry to be developed. In the context of rapid economic development, global warming has become a serious problem with issues such as rising average temperatures, climate change, rising sea level, and increasing carbon dioxide emissions. This study aims to examine the influence of economic growth, financial development, transportation capacity, and environmental degradation. Using time-series data from 1986 to 2019 and environmental degradation being measured by CO2 emissions, the study employs a quantity of ample unit root tests, the structural break unit root tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and cointegration bounds test. The results show that there is a significant long-term cointegration among study variables. Empirical findings also indicate that an increase in per capita GDP and financial development worsens environmental quality whereas transportation capacity and foreign investment can improve environmental quality.

The Impact of Monetary Policy on Household Debt in China

  • CANAKCI, Mehmet
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.653-663
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    • 2021
  • There has been a massive increase in household debt in China, especially in the last five of years. Learning from past experiences, the country needs careful forecasting that may help to form new policies or make amendments to the existing ones. This research paper aims to highlight the impact of the monetary policy on household debt in China. The study covers the time period from 1996 to 2020 The study employs a cointegration test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) approach, a Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and PP test (PMG) and time series data. The findings suggest on a quantitative analysis using a time-series model in which gdp per capita and interest rate has a positive impact on household debt whereas, cpi doesn't have significant impact. In a short-term variables relationship, household debt responds more to an increase in income than in the long-term. Also, the impact of interest rate changes on household debt is lower than income in the short run.The research suggests that there should be some restrictions on household debt and consumer financing provided to citizens and for this, appropriate leverage measures should be taken in order for the central bank to sustain robust macroeconomic conditions.

The Impact of Financial Integration on Monetary Policy Independence: The Case of Vietnam

  • TRAN, Ha Hong;LE, Thao Phan Thi Dieu;NGUYEN, Vinh Thi Hong;LE, Dao Thi Anh;TRINH, Nam Hoang
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.791-800
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    • 2021
  • Along with the trend of financial globalization, Vietnam has undergone a process of increasing financial integration. The great capital inflow poses a problem for the monetary policy's ability to follow a planned target during the changes in the global financial markets. This paper aims to examine the impact of financial integration on monetary policy independence in Vietnam and investigate the role of foreign exchange reserves on this relationship. The research borrows from Mundell-Fleming's Trilemma theory. The results show that increasing financial integration reduces the independence of monetary policy in the short term, and foreign exchange reserves have not shown an apparent role in Vietnam. In addition, increasing exchange rate stability has a negative impact on the independence of monetary policy, but it has an impact on growing market confidence and partly supporting the management process of monetary policy in the short term. Therefore, in the long run, Vietnam needs to allow exchange rate flexibility more, but there should not be sudden changes; the size of foreign exchange reserves should be strengthened to facilitate the implementation of an independent monetary policy with an obvious impact in the context of an increasing scale of international capital flows in the future.

The Relationships between CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth and Life Expectancy

  • MURTHY, Uma;SHAARI, Mohd Shahidan;MARIADAS, Paul Anthony;ABIDIN, Noorazeela Zainol
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.801-808
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    • 2021
  • The issue of the relationship between environmental degradation and human health has been widely addressed by medical doctors. However, economists have sparsely debated it. The release of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the air can cause several environmental problems and, thus, it can affect human health. Therefore, it is imperative to examine the effect of CO2 emissions on life expectancy in the D-8 countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey) from 1992 to 2017. The panel ARDL method is employed and, then, the PMG estimator is selected. The results show that economic growth, population growth and health expenditure can significantly and positively affect life expectancy, but CO2 emissions can have a significant and negative effect on life expectancy. Since, the major findings reveal that life expectancy can be explained by CO2 emissions. Hence, it is important to formulate policies on reducing CO2 emissions so that life expectancy will not be affected. Energy diversification policies should be formulated or improved in some countries. This is to ensure that the countries are not highly dependent on non-renewable energy that can harm the environment. The government should increase its expenditure on the health sector to save more lives by extend human lifespan.

The Role of Technological Progress in the Distribution sector: Evidence from Saudi Arabia Wholesale and Retail Trade Sector

  • ALZYADAT, Jumah Ahmad;ALMUSLAMANI, Monira Saleh
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims to identify the role of technological progress in the distribution sector in Saudi Arabia. Research design, data, and methodology: The study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate the Cobb Douglas production function of the wholesale and retail trade sector in Saudi Arabia, relied on annual data from the General Authority for Statistics from 2005 to 2019. Results: The results show that there is a long run relationship between the production of the wholesale and retail trade sector in KSA and the factors of production labour, capital and technology progress. The elasticity of the wholesale and retail trade production with respect to capital and labour are 0.26 and 0.78 respectively; the coefficients are positive and statistically significant. The wholesale and retail trade sector is operating under increasing returns to scale. The main result indicates that the elasticity of the wholesale and retail production with respect to the technology progress is 4.62%, which is positive and statistically significant. Conclusions: The study concluded that technological progress has a positive contribution to the growth of the distribution sector in KSA. Therefore, the technological progress can improve the productivity and efficiency of the resources allocated to the dis.

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Fostering Investment in Jordan during the Period 1992-2020

  • ALNABULSI, Zaynab Hassan;ALRAWASHDEH, Salah Turki;LUTFI, Khalid Munther;SALAMEH, Rafat Salameh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.9
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    • pp.39-47
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    • 2022
  • This study explored the effectiveness of the measures taken by the Jordanian Central Bank embedded in its monetary policy in encouraging banks to support investment. It aimed to explore the impact of this monetary policy on supporting credit-related decisions and the monetary policies that aim to support investment in Jordan. The targeted tools of the monetary policy are: (Overnight Deposit Window Rate, money supply, and exports). The researchers carried out an analysis to measure the effectiveness of the monetary policy in fostering investment in Jordan during the period 1992-2020. They carried out the time series analysis. They explored the stationarity of the time series. They used the ARDL model. It was found that the Overnight Deposit Window Rate has a negative significant effect on the gross fixed capital formation. It was found that the money supply has a positive insignificant effect on gross fixed capital formation. The researcher recommends using Overnight Deposit Window Rate in a manner that is consistent with the intended investment-related goals.

Impact of nuclear and renewable energy sources on environment quality: Testing the EKC and LCC hypotheses for South Korea

  • Ugur Korkut Pata;Mustafa Tevfik Kartal
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.587-594
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the impacts of nuclear energy consumption on environmental quality from a different perspective by focusing on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, ecological footprint, and load capacity factor. In this context, the South Korea case, which is a leading country producing and consuming nuclear energy, is investigated by considering also economic growth, and the 1997 Asian crisis from 1977 to 2018. To this end, the study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Different from previous literature, this study proposes a load capacity curve (LCC) and tests the LCC and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypotheses simultaneously. The analysis results reveal that (i) the LCC and EKC hypotheses are valid in South Korea; (ii) nuclear energy has an improving effect on the environmental quality; (iii) renewable energy does not have a significant long-term impact on the environment; (iv) the 1997 Asian crisis had an increasing effect on the load capacity factor; (v) South Korea has not yet reached the turning point, identified as $55,411, where per capita income improves environmental quality. Overall, the results show the validity of the LCC and EKC hypotheses and prove the positive contribution of nuclear energy to South Korea's green development strategies.

Spillovers of Education and Job Training in Bringing Sustainable Economic Development in Pakistan: The Role of Research and Development Revisited

  • AMIN, Sara;LIAQAT, Malka;SAFDAR, Noreen;IQBAL, Sidra
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2022
  • Current research intended to measure the spillovers of education and on-the-job training to enhance sustainable economic development. Consideration of research and development expenditures for on-the-job training expands the impact of education and, thus, may provide spillovers for Pakistan's economic growth. The primary focus of this research is to look at the combined impact of education and research and development spending as value-added variables for sustainable growth. The econometric study uses data from a variety of sources, including the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the Pakistan Economic Survey, and world development indices. The secondary annual time series data from 1976 to 2019 are analyzed. To adequately estimate the empirical model, ARDL has been used while the presence of the unit root has been tested using the ADF test. The findings show that education, research, and development all contribute to all-inclusive, sustainable economic growth. Labor and capital, among other traditional components, continue to be the backbone of the development process. Still, the spillover effect is much enhanced with the expansion in education and the on-job training in the form of research and development expenditures. Consequently, the introduction of research and development in education will lead to a sustainable and inclusive economy.