• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.273-285
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• 2011

This study describes the modeling of climate change impact on runoff across southeast Korea using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model TANK and assesses the results using the concept of environmental flows developed by International Water Management Institute. The future climate time series is obtained by scaling the historical series, informed by 4 global climate models and 3 greenhouse gas emission scenarios, to reflect a $4.0^{\circ}C$ increase at most in average surface air temperature and 31.7% increase at most in annual precipitation, using the spatio-temporal changing factor method that considers changes in the future mean seasonal rainfall and potential evapotranspiration as well as in the daily rainfall distribution. Although the simulation results from different global circulation models and greenhouse emission scenarios indicate different responses in flows to the climate change, the majority of the modeling results show that there will be more runoff in southeast Korea in the future. However, there is substantial uncertainty, with the results ranging from a 5.82% decrease to a 48.15% increase in the mean annual runoff averaged across the study area according to the corresponding climate change scenarios. We then assess the hydrologic perturbations based on the comparison between present and future flow duration curves suggested by IMWI. As a result, the effect of hydrologic perturbation on aquatic ecosystems may be significant at several locations of the Nakdong river main stream in dry season.

• 한국해양학회지:바다
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• 제13권1호
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• pp.15-26
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• 2008

NEMURO 모델은 태양복사에너지와 표층수온자료를 사용하여 해양의 하위영양단계의 인자들 사이의 상호작용을 효과적으로 이해하기 위하여 개발된 모델이다. 본 연구에서 영양염과 플랑크톤의 계절적 변동을 분석하였으며, 2002년부터 2005년 사이의 플랑크톤 생산량과 생체량을 추정하였다. 모델 내에서 식물플랑크톤이 직접적으로 이용하는 영양염인 $NO_3$, $NH_4$ 및 $Si(OH)_4$는 식물플랑크톤의 대번식시기 이전에 높은 농도를 나타내었다. 플랑크톤의 사망이나 배설에 의해 재생되는 영양염인 DON, PON 및 Opal은 플랑크톤의 대번식시기와 동시에 높은 농도를 나타내었다. NEMURO 모델에서 추정된 식물과 동물플랑크톤은 3월과 8월에 높은 생체량을 보인다. 이는 모델이 적용된 지역에서 관측된 chlorophyll a와 유사한 형태를 나타내었다. 식물플랑크톤의 생체량은 동물플랑크톤보다 더 컸으며, 포식형 동물플랑크톤의 연평균 생체량은 소형과 대형 동물플랑크톤보다 크게 나타내었다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.311-325
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• 2023

본 연구는 가리왕산, 유명산에 자생하는 주요 밀원수종인 음나무, 벚나무류, 피나무류 및 쪽동백나무를 대상으로 머신러닝기법(i.e., MaxEnt)을 활용하여 서식지 적합성 분석을 수행하였다. 분석 결과, 모형의 예측정확도인 AUC 값은 대부분의 밀원수종이 0.7 이상이었으며, 주요 환경 변수에 대한 반응 곡선 결과 주요 밀원수종의 서식지 적합성에 영향을 미치는 환경적 요인은 고도, 연평균 강수량, 연평균 기온으로 나타났다. 이는 고도 구배에 따른 기후 인자가 주요 밀원수종의 분포 패턴 설명에 있어 주요한 환경 변수임을 의미한다. 본 연구는 우리나라 밀원수림의 조성 및 관리 전략수립 뿐만 아니라 밀원수종의 분포도 제작 시 근거 자료로써 기여할 수 있을 것이다. 향후 다양한 층위에서의 꿀과 화분의 생산량 증대 및 꿀의 주년 생산을 위해서는 생물학적 변수를 반영한 다양한 지역 단위의 추가적인 데이터 수집 및 분석이 필요할 것이다.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.14-23
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• 2012

The TMY (Typical Meteorological Year) for the solar energy study is generated using observation data with 22 solar sites from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) during 11 years (2000-2010). The meteorological data for calculation the TMY are used solar radiation, temperature, dew point temperature, wind speed and humidity data. And the TMY is calculated to apply the FS (Finkelstein and Schafer) statistics and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) methods. FS statistics performed with each point and each variable and then selected top five candidate TMM months with statistical analysis and normalization. Finally TMY is generated to select the highest TMM score with evaluation the average errors for the 22 whole points. The TMY data is represented average state and long time variations with 22 sites and meteorological data. When TMY validated with the 11-year daily solar radiation data, the correlation coefficient was about 0.40 and the highest value is 0.57 in April and the lowest value is 0.23 in May. Mean monthly solar radiation of TMY is 411.72 MJ which is 4 MJ higher than original data. Average correlation coefficient is 0.71, the lowest correlation is 0.43 in May and the highest correlation is 0.90 in January. Accumulated annual solar radiation by TMY have higher value in south coast and southwestern region and have relatively low in middle regions. And also, differences between TMY and 11-year mean of is distributed lower 100 MJ in Kyeongbuk, higher 200 MJ in Jeju and higher 125 MJ in Jeonbuk and Jeonnam, respectively.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.507-524
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• 2008

In this paper, future climate changes over East Asia($20^{\circ}{\sim}50^{\circ}N$, $100^{\circ}{\sim}150^{\circ}E$) are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. Before projection future climate, model performance is assessed by the $20^{th}$ Century (20C3M) experiment with bias, root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ratio of standard deviation, Taylor diagram analysis. The result of examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP shows that cold bias, lowered than that of observation, of T2m and wet bias, larger than that of observation, of PCP are found over East Asia. The largest wet bias is found in winter and the largest cold bias is found in summer. The RMSE of temperature in the annual mean increases and this trend happens in winter, too. That is, higher resolution model shows generally better performances in simulation T2m and PCP. Based on IPCC SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming $21^{st}$ century. It is predict the T2m increase in East Asia is larger than global mean temperature. As the latitude goes high, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. An enhanced land-sea contrast is proposed as a possible mechanism of the intensified Asian summer monsoon. But, the inter-model variability in PCP changes is large.

• Advances in environmental research
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.265-279
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• 2017

The climate change has made adverse effects on land surface temperature for many regions of the world. Several climatic studies focused on different downscaling techniques for climatological parameters of different regions. For statistical downscaling of any hydrological parameters, conventional Neural Network Models were used in common. However, it seems that in any modeling study, uncertainty is a vital aspect when making any predictions about the performance. In this paper, Gamma Test is performed to determine the data length selection for training to minimize the uncertainty in model development. Another measure to improve the data quality and model development are wavelet transforms. Hence, Gamma Test with Wavelet decomposed Feedforward Neural Network (GT-WNN) model is developed and tested for downscaled land surface temperature of Patna Urban, Bihar. The results of GT-WNN model are compared with GT-FFNN and conventional Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN) model. The effectiveness of the developed models is illustrated by Root Mean Square Error and Coefficient of Correlation. Results showed that GT-WNN outperformed the GT-FFNN and conventional FFNN in downscaling the land surface temperature. The land surface temperature is forecasted for a period of 2015-2044 with GT-WNN model for Patna Urban in Bihar. In addition, the significance of the probable changes in the land surface temperature is also found through Mann-Kendall (M-K) Test for Summer, Winter, Monsoon and Post Monsoon seasons. Results showed an increasing surface temperature trend for summer and winter seasons and no significant trend for monsoon and post monsoon season over the study area for the period between 2015 and 2044. Overall, the M-K test analysis for the annual data shows an increasing trend in the land surface temperature of Patna Urban.

• 한국토양비료학회지
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.348-351
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• 1985

한국(韓國)과 일본(日本)의 농업기후조건(農業氣候條件)을 비교(比較)하기 위하여 기온(氣溫)을 분석(分析)하고 수도작(水稻作)에의 의미(意味)를 조사(調査)한 결과(結果)는 다음과 같다. 1. 평균기온(平均氣溫)은 최난월(最暖月)인 8월(月)에는 비슷하나 최한월(最寒月)인 1월(月)에는 큰 차이(差異)가 있어 한국(韓國)의 연교차(年較差)가 매우 크다. 2. 한국(韓國)에서 봄 가을에 기온변동(氣溫變動)이 심(甚)하여 특(特)히 등열기간중(登熱期間中)에 최저기온(最低氣溫)의 강하(降下)가 심(甚)하다. 따라서 같은 등열기간(登熱期間)의 적산온도(積算溫度)라 하더라도 한계온도(限界溫度) 이하(以下)로 떨어지는 한랭시간(寒冷時間) 적산온도(積算溫度)가 한국(韓國)에서 높으므로 등열(登熱)과 기온(氣溫)의 해석(解析)에 있어서 이 점(點)을 고려(考慮)하여야 한다.

• Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• 제26권11호
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• pp.639-648
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• 2023

The sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat content in the Korea Waters are gradually increased. Especially the increasing trend of annual mean SST in the Korea Water is higher about 2.6 times than the global mean during past 55 years (1968-2022). Before 2010s, the increasing trend of SST was led by winter season in the Korea Waters. However, this pattern was clearly changed after 2010s. The increasing trend of SST during summer is higher about 3.9 times than during winter after 2010s. We examine the long-term variations of several ocean and climate factors to understand the reasons for the long-term pattern changes of SST between summer and winter in recent. Tsushima warm current was significantly strengthened in summer compare to winter during past 33 years (1986-2018). The long-term patterns of Siberian High and East Asian Winter Monsoon were definitely changed before and after early- or mid-2000s. The intensities of those two climate factors was changed to the increasing trend or weakened decreasing trend from the distinctive decreasing trend. In addition, the extreme weather condition like the heatwave days and cold spell days in the Korea significantly increased since mid- or late-2000s. From these results, we can consider that the occurrences of frequent and intensified marine heatwaves during summer and marine cold spells during winter in the Korea Waters might be related with the long-term pattern change of SST, which should be caused by the long-term change of climate factors and advection heat, in a few decade.

• 한국해양학회지
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.43-50
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• 1976

해양과 대기간의 열교환에 관한 문제는 세계적으로 여러 학자들의 연구에 의해서 강조되어 온 바와 같이 해양학과 기상학에서 매우 중요한 비중을 차지하고 있는 분야 로서 선진제국의 이에 대한 관심과 연구열은 매우 다대하다. 한국근해에서의 해양과 대기간의 열교환에 관하여는 Jacobs(1951), Manabe(1957, 1958), Ninomiya(1964,1968) Wyrtki(1965, 1968), Takahashi(1969), Moriyasu(1952, 1969), Ishida(1970) 및 한( 1970, 1972) 등의 조사보고가 있으나 이들은 대개 한국근해를 중심으로 다루어진 것이 아니거나 시기적으로 또는 지역적으로 국한되어 있는 것이므로 우리나라 근해에서의 전반적인 열교환에 관하여는 보고된 바가 거의 없는 실정이다.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.179-189
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• 2013

강원도 양구군 해안분지는 접경지대에 위치하며 지질학적 차별침식에 의해 형성된 특이지형이다. 최근 안보관광, 고랭지 작물특화 및 고원습지 등으로 일반인의 관심을 받고 있다. 한국전쟁 후 급격한 인구감소가 있었으나 2007년 이후 증가세를 보이고 있다. 연평균기온은 $+0.016^{\circ}C$/년 그리고 연강수량은 +10.41 mm/년의 속도로 증가하고 있다. 그리고 강수 증가량의 대부분은 6~8월 우기에 집중되는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 해안분지의 지하수 관정 수 및 이용량이 최근 꾸준히 증가하고 있으며 거의 대부분 논농사 및 고랭지 작물재배용이다. 기후변화시나리오에 따라 향후 기온이 더욱 상승하면 고랭지 작물재배가 어려워지고 또 여름 집중강우가 증가한다면 지하수함양 및 물관리에 어려움이 예상된다. 그러므로 해안분지의 지속가능한 지하수개발량에 대한 평가와 물의존적 농업형태에 대한 변화(작물전환)가 요구된다.