• Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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• v.19 no.2 s.63
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• pp.40-46
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• 2005

In order to consider the statistical properties of probability variables which are used in structural analysis, the conventional approach of using safety factors based on past experience, are usually used to estimate the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, materials and dimensional characteristics. Errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. In this paper, we estimated the probability of failure of two pressure vessels, simultaneously, using computational analysis. One pressure vessel, theoretically, had no stiffener whereas the other had. This paper also discusses sensitivity values of random variables in the rounded parts of the pressure vessel which had ring-style stiffener in the center of the external area which had ring-style stiffener. Finally, we show that the reliability index, and the probability of failure, can be calculated to particular tolerance limits.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.425-431
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• 2001

In order to take account of the statistical properties of probability variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach using the safety factor based on past experience usually estimated the safety of a structure. The real structures could only be analyzed with the error in estimation of loads, material characters and the dimensions of the members. But the errors should be considered systematically in the structural analysis. Structural safety could not precisely be appraised by the traditional structural design concept. Recently, new approach based on the probability concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety using the reliability concept. In this study, safety of structures will estimated by the reliability analysis with commercial structural software that has the tools of nonlinear elastic-plastic 3-D analysis. Experimental test result is compared to results from this research and Coan/sup 1)/ In this paper, AFOSM(Advanced First-Order Second Moment method) is applied with von Mises, Tresca and Mohr-Coulomb failure criterions. The reliability index β and probability of failure P/sub f/ can be obtained by following this practical procedure as judgement a safety of structures and necessity of reinforcing.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1990.10a
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• pp.22-27
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• 1990

Since an eigenvalue problem in structural analysis has been recognized as an important process for the assessment of structural strength, it is usually to be carried out the eigenvalue analysis or buckling analysis of structures when the compression behabiour of the member is dorminant. In general, various variables involved in the eigenvalue problem have also shown their variability. So it is natural to apply the probabilistic analysis into such problem. Since the limit state equation for the eigenvalue analysis or buckling reliability analysis is expressed implicitly in terms of random variables involved, the probabilistic finite element method is combined with the conventional reliability method such as MVFOSM and AFOSM for the determination of probability of failure due to buckling. The accuracy of the results obtained by this method is compared with results from the Monte Carlo simulations. Importance sampling method is specially chosen for overcomming the difficulty in a large simulation number needed for appropriate accurate result. From the results of the case study, it is found that the method developed here has shown good performance for the calculation of probability of buckling failure and could be used for checking the safety of the calculation of probability of buckling failure and could be used for checking the safely of frame structure which might be collapsed by either yielding or buckling.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.20 no.12
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• pp.41-47
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• 2019

This paper deals with the reliability analysis of foundation for an offshore wind turbine system. Reliability analyses were carried out for suction bucket foundation considering the uncertainties in soil and structural parameters. In reliability analysis, the vertical and lateral resistances are defined as base limit states. The case studies were carried out using the preliminarily designed foundations at western-south mainland sea of Korea. From reliability analyses, vertical resistance for free-slip condition has overall lower reliability index, and submerged unit weight and internal friction angle of seabed soil are governing factors in vertical and lateral resistance in this case.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.24 no.1 s.87
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• pp.121-131
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• 2006

Considering characteristics of drivers and vehicles with proper and reliable ways in highway design Procedures can ensure high level of highway safety. However, it is almost impossible to take into account all factors of drivers and vehicles influencing on the highway safety because of their uncertain and random nature. To detour the dead-end, the nature are usually assumed as simple homogeneous and deterministic one. Although the restricted assumption makes the system simple, it can produce serious problems due to lack of considering variability in the system. This paper develops a reliability-based method for determining stopping sight distance(SSD) and intersection sight distance (ISD), which are crucial elements in highway alignment design. In the study, Hasofer-Lind method is adopted. which is a well-known first-order second moment reliability method (AFOSM) The results in this study show that if mean, variance, and distribution of a particular driver-vehicle parameter are known, more reliable sight distances can be applied in highway design procedures because we can reflect uncertainties and randomness. Thus, the Probabilistic method could be adopted in designing the sight distance(s) with the desired reliability level.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.61-68
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• 1988

This study is intended to propose an approach to reliability-based safety evaluation as well as LRFR(Load and Resisitance Factor Rating) type capacity classification of military or civilian bridges based on the limit state models which are delived by incorporating all the uncertainties of resistance and load random variables including deterioration, and are used in a practical AFOSM (Advanced First Order Second Moment) method. The proposed methods for the assement of safety and load carrying capacity are applied for the evaluation of rating and classifications of several practical bridges against the crossing of military vehicles. Based on the observation of the numerical results, it can be concluded that the current NATO classification method which is based on the traditionl allowable stress concept can not provide real load carrying capacity but results in nominal classification, and therefore the reliability-based safety evaluation and LRFR-classification method or the corresponding rational allowable stress method proposed in this paper may have to be introduced into the classification practice.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2011.02a
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• pp.185-185
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• 2011

기존 장대레일 궤도의 안정성 평가는 궤도 매개변수에 대하여 고정된 안전측의 값을 사용하는 결정론적인 해석에 의존해서 평가되어져 왔다. 그러나 실제현장의 궤도조건은 많은 영향인자들에 의해 그 특성이 불확실하게 변하고 있다. 따라서 온도하중에 의한 궤도 좌굴에 영향을 미치는 궤도 구성인자들의 불확실성 및 임의성을 보다 합리적으로 고려하기 위해서 확률론적 기법을 적용하는 것이 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 기존 본 연구진에 의해 개발된 장대레일 궤도의 좌굴확률 평가시스템을 이용하여 좌굴 취약도 곡선을 나타내었으며, 궤도 좌굴에 영향을 미치는 주요변수 중 하나인 도상횡저항력에 대한 영향을 분석하였다. 좌굴확률 평가시스템에서는 장대레일 궤도의 좌굴확률을 산정하기 위하여 구조물의 안정과 파괴를 판단할 수 있는 기준을 한계상태방정식으로 표현하고, 이 한계상태방정식으로부터 확률론적 기법 중 하나인 AFOSM(Advanced First Order Second Moment) 방법을 이용하여 파괴확률의 간접적인 지표인 신뢰도지수(${\beta}$)를 통해 좌굴확률을 계산한다. 한계상태방정식에서 구조물의 강도(보유성능)에 해당하는 부분은 궤도의 허용좌굴온도이고, 하중(요구성능)에 해당하는 부분은 레일온도하중으로써 현재 레일온도와 중립온도의 차로 반영된다. 허용좌굴온도 산정에 고려되는 주요변수는 곡선반경(Radius), 도상횡저항력(Lateral Ballast Resista nce), 연직도상강성(Vertical Ballast Stiffness), 궤도 틀림량(Misalignment), 틀림길이(Half Wave Length), 열차운행속도(Velocity)이다. 각 확률변수들이 갖는 확률분포는 모두 정규분포로 가정하였다. 궤도의 기하학적 특성은 곡선반경 5,000m에 대해 고려하였으며, 열차는 KTX의 제원을 사용하여 정지된 상태에서 고려하였다. 틀림량과 틀림길이는 이에 대한 통계적 특성자료가 부족하여 확률변수로 고려하지 않고 결정론적 값으로 취급하였다. 레일온도의 통계적 특성치는 본 연구진에 의해 구축된 기후요소 및 레일온도 DB를 근거로 결정하였으며, 중립온도는 선로관리지침에 따라 $25{\pm}3^{\circ}C$를 기준으로 결정하였다. 또한 도상횡저항력은 실측 데이터를 참고로 하여 평균값에서 10%의 변동량을 갖는 것으로 보고 통계적 특성치를 결정하였다. 도상횡저항력이 좌굴확률에 미치는 영향을 매우 큰 것을 알 수 있었으며, 레일온도 $60^{\circ}C$일 때 도상횡저항력이 증가하면서 감소되는 좌굴확률이 도상저항력이 커질수록 그 감소량이 작아지는 것을 알 수 있었다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.61-68
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• 1986

This paper presents a method for developing a probability-based working stress design code for reinforced concrete. Reliability of reinforced concrete structural members is evaluated by using an advanced second moment reliability method, and then, a practical method for code calibration is shown in this paper. The target reliability indices for various structural elements are determined by considering the results of the numerical studies on the safety of the structures designed by the current code, and by reflecting the construction practice. A set of allowable stresses and safety factors for reinforced concrete is proposed as a possible substitute for the current safety provisions, based on the rational target reliability indices.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.22 no.3_1spc
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• pp.518-524
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• 2013

Recently, probabilistic assessments of nuclear power plant components have generated interest in the nuclear industries, either for the efficient inspection and maintenance of older nuclear plants or for improving the safety and cost-effective design of newly constructed nuclear plants. In the present paper, the partial safety factor (PSF) of wall-thinned nuclear piping is evaluated based on a reliability index method, from which the effect of each statistical variable (assessment parameter) on a certain target probability is evaluated. In order to calculate the PSF of a wall-thinned pipe, a limit state function based on the load and resistance factor design (LRFD) concept is first constructed. As for the reliability assessment method, both the advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method and second-order reliability method (SORM) are employed to determine the PSF of each probabilistic variable. The present results can be used for developing maintenance strategies considering the priorities of input variables for structural integrity assessments of wall-thinned piping, and this PSF concept can also be applied to the optimal design of the components of newly constructed plants considering the target reliability levels.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.413-419
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• 2008

Deterministic design optimization (DO) does not explicitly deal with a variety of factors from inherent randomness and uncertainties. Reliability based design optimization(RBDO) is necessary to use in engineering systems in order to guarantee quality and performance of product. In this paper, design variables are considered as random variables. Standard deviation according to change of design variables have changed as much as coefficient of variation. And, if the standard deviation is error of manufacturing, standard deviation-mean relation is concave form. We obtain reliability index using advanced first order second moment method(AFOSM). This paper is examined by solving two examples and the results are compares with DO, RBDO and suggested RBDO.