• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.43 no.6
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• pp.789-792
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• 2010

Major impacts of climate change expert that soil erosion rate may increase during the $21^{st}$ century. This study was conducted to assess the potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion by water in Korea. The soil loss was estimated for regions with the potential risk of soil erosion on a national scale. For computation, Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with rainfall and runoff erosivity factors (R), cover management factors (C), support practice factors (P) and revised USLE with soil erodibility factors (K) and topographic factors (LS) were used. RUSLE, the revised version of USLE, was modified for Korean conditions and re-evaluate to estimate the national-scale of soil loss based on the digital soil maps for Korea. The change of precipitation for 2010 to 2090s were predicted under A1B scenarios made by National Institute of Meteorological Research in Korea. Future soil loss was predicted based on a change of R factor. As results, the predicted precipitations were increased by 6.7% for 2010 to 2030s, 9.5% for 2040 to 2060s and 190% for 2070 to 2090s, respectively. The total soil loss from uplands in 2005 was estimated approximately $28{\times}10^6$ ton. Total soil losses were estimated as $31{\times}10^6$ ton in 2010 to 2030s, $31{\times}10^6$ ton in 2040 to 2060s and $33{\times}10^6$ ton in 2070 to 2090s, respectively. As precipitation increased by 17% in the end of $21^{st}$ century, the total soil loss was increased by 12.9%. Overall, these results emphasize the significance of precipitation. However, it should be noted that when precipitation becomes insignificant, the results may turn out to be complex due to the large interaction among plant biomass, runoff and erosion. This may cause increase or decrease the overall erosion.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.15-26
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• 2012

For stable and sustainable crop production, understanding the effects of climate changes on agricultural water resources is necessary to minimize the negative effects which might occur due to shifting weather conditions. Although various studies have been carried out in Korea concerning changes in evapotranspiration and irrigation water requirement, the findings are still difficult to utilize fordesigning the demand and unit duty of water, which are the design criteria of irrigation systems. In this study, the impact analysis of climate changes on the paddy water demand and unit duty of water was analyzed based on the high resolution climate change scenarios (specifically under the A1B scenario) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. The result of the study indicated that average changes in the paddy water demand in eight irrigation districts were estimated as -2.4 % (2025s), -0.2 % (2055s), and 3.2 % (2085s). The unit duty of water was estimated to increase on an average within 2 % during paddy transplanting season and within 5 % during growing season after transplanting. This result could be utilized for irrigation system design, agricultural water resource development, and rice paddy cultivation policy-making in South Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.73-73
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• 2011

일반적으로 미래 기후자료를 산출하기 위하여 기후 시스템을 수치화한 GCM에 의한 결과를 사용한다. 하지만 GCM의 시공간적인 해상도의 문제로 기후변화에 따른 수자원 영향 분석을 위해서는 축소기법의 적용과정이 필요하다. 이를 위하여 전세계적으로 통계학적 방법에 의한 일기발생기를 이용한 축소기법 방법이 많이 이용되고 있다. 하지만 일기발생기에 의한 방법은 월 평균값의 연간 변동성이나 계절적 변화를 재현하는데 한계가 있는 것이 사실이다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 일기 발생기의 한계가 강우의 발생 특성이 평균과 표준편차로 대표되는 통계학적 기법에 근거하고 있기 때문이라고 파악하였다. 따라서 최저온도, 최고온도, 강수량, 상대습도, 풍속, 일사량과 같이 6개의 기상자료를 선정하여 비선형 관계를 고려할 수 있는 기법을 적용하고자 하였다. 이를 위하여 SRES A1B 기후변화 시나리오에 의한 CNCM3 기후모형의 결과를 이용하였고 각 관측소 마다 다양하게 발생하는 강우 특성은 과거의 강우 특성과 유사할 것이라는 가정하에 공간적 축소기법으로 인공 신경망(ANN: Artificial Neural Network) 을 적용하고 시간적 축소기법으로 최근린(NN: Nearest Neighbor) 방법과 유전자 알고리즘(GA: Genetic Algorithm)을 적용하는 기법을 함께 제시하였다. 이러한 기법들을 실제 남한강 유역의 기상관측소 지점으로 적용하여 검증한 결과 모의된 대부분의 기상자료가 관측치를 비교적 잘 재현하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 비선형 축소기법은 추후 기후변화 연구에 중요한 방법론으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.69-89
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• 2014

The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.

• Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.711-716
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• 2012

Due to the climate change in South Korea the annual total precipitation will increase by 17 percent by 2100. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer in South Korea and the landslide of farmland by heavy rain is expected to increase. Because regional torrential rains accompanied by a storm continue to cause the damage in farmland urgent establishment of adaptation plant for minimizing the damage is in need. In this study we assessed vulnerability of landslide of farmland by heavy rain for local governments. Temporal resolution is 2000 year and the future 2020 year, 2050 year, 2100 year via A1B scenario. Vulnerability of local government were evaluated by three indices such as climate exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity and each index is calculated by selected alternative variable. Collected data was normalized and then multiplied by weight value that was elicited in delphi investigation. Current vulnerability is concentrated in Jeju island and Gyeongsangnam-do, however, it is postulated that Kangwon-do will be vulnerable in the future. Through this study, local governments can use the data to establish adaptation plans for farmland landslide by climate change.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.96 no.3
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• pp.348-356
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• 2007

The purpose of this study is to give the results of economic feasibility of industrial forest plantations, and also A/R CDM project in Indonesia to investors. In order to analyze economic feasibility of the industrial forest plantation and A/R CDM project, this study comparatively analyzes the feasibility based on three following scenarios: industrial plantation type; A/R CDM type; combination type of industrial plantation and A/R CDM project. In the aspect of IRR, the combination type has 11 % while the industrial plantation type has 8%. If the price of timber increases USD $5/m^3$ (from the standard price: USD $30/m^3$ to USD $35/m^3$), IRR of the industrial plantation type will increase from 8% to 14%. This result shows us that the IRR of the industrial plantation type is very sensitive to the price of timber. There is no economic feasibility of A/R CDM project if the price of lCER is under USD 5. In addition, IRR of the A/R CDM project type is the same to IRR of industrial plantation type (8%) when the price of lCER is USD 10. Finally, the total investment expenditure on 12,000ha of the combination type is approximately 13 billion won while the industrial plantation type is 13.6 billion won. It takes 11 year to reach the turning point in terms of profitability of the combination type while the industrial plantation takes 13 year. Thus, the economic feasibility of the combination type is higher than the other types(industrial plantation type and A/R CDM project type).

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.160-174
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• 2014

The purpose of this paper is to develop a meso-scale grid-based continuous hydrological model and apply to assess the future watershed hydrology by climate change. The model divides the watershed into rectangular cells, and the cell profile is divided into three layered flow components: a surface layer, a subsurface unsaturated layer, and a saturated layer. Soil water balance is calculated for each grid cell of the watershed, and updated daily time step. Evapotranspiration(ET) is calculated by Penman-Monteith method and the surface and subsurface flow adopts lag coefficients for multiple days contribution and recession curve slope for stream discharge. The model was calibrated and verified using 9 years(2001-2009) dam inflow data of two watersheds(Chungju Dam and Soyanggang Dam) with 1km spatial resolution. The average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.57 and 0.71, and the average determination coefficient was 0.65 and 0.72 respectively. For the whole Han river basin, the model was applied to assess the future climate change impact on the river bsain. Five IPCC SRES A1B scenarios of CSIRO MK3, GFDL CM2_1, CONS ECHO-G, MRI CGCM2_3_2, UKMO HADGEMI) showed the results of 7.0%~27.1 increase of runoff and the increase of evapotranspiration with both integrated and distributed model outputs.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.192-207
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• 2020

Profitability of upland crops is better than paddy crops and proportion of upland is increasing. However, there is a lack of infrastructures for upland irrigation. The object of this study were to develop water supply scenarios using individual and collective agricultural wells to evaluate economic feasibility to consider geographical analysis of upland farms and water supply facilities. Cheongyang, Dangjin, Yesan, and Goesan were selected as study areas where four different crops of red pepper, chinese cabbage, apple, and bean, respectively, were mainly produced in Chungcheong province. As a result, B/C ratio was estimated as 1.49, 1.36, 1.90, and 0.71 in using individual wells scenario, and 1.45, 1.20, 1.91, and 0.65 in using collective wells scenario for red pepper, chinese cabbage, apple, and bean. It turned out that change of price effected on economic feasibility a lot for crops with low production income. As a result of evaluating economic feasibility by number of plots for developing collective well, there was no effect of economy of scale for red pepper and chinese cabbage. In case of collectivizating more than 20 upland plots, effect of economy of scale appeared for apple and bean. In conclusion, development of water using high value crops including red pepper and apple, and effect of collective well requires additory analysis of .spatial distribution of farms.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.155-165
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• 2014

In this study, using a complex of physical, chemical, and biological evaluation factors, the ecological vulnerability to climate change were evaluated at each river in the Nakdong river basin. First, runoff, sediment rate, and low flow discharge changes according to AIB climate change scenario using the SWAT model were simulated. Also, for the assessment of chemical and biological factors, 48 points that water quality monitoring sites and ecological health measurement points are matched with each other was selected. The water quality data of BOD and T-P and the biological data of IBI and KSI in each point were reflected in the assessment. Also, the future rise in water temperature of the rivers in Nakdong river basin was predicted, and the impact of water temperature rise on the fish habitat was evaluated. The top 10 most vulnerable points was presented through a summary of each evaluation factor. This study has a contribution to river restoration or management plan according to the characteristics of each river.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.124-131
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• 2012

This study was carried out to evaluate a possible change in freeze risk for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach buds in three major peach growing areas under the future climate projected by RCP8.5 emission scenario. Mean values of the monthly temperature data for the present decade (2000s) and the future decades (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were extracted for farm lands in Icheon, Chungju, and Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan region at 1km resolution and 30 sets of daily temperature data were generated randomly by a stochastic process for each decade. The daily data were used to calculate a thermal time-based dormancy depth index which is closely related to the cold tolerance of peach buds. Combined with daily minimum temperature, dormancy depth can be used to estimate the potential risk of freezing damage on peach buds. When the freeze risk was calculated daily for the winter period (from 1 November to 15 March) in the present decade, Icheon and Chungju regions had high values across the whole period, but Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan regions had low values from mid-December to the end of January. In the future decades, the frequency of freezing damage would be reduced in all 3 regions and the reduction rate could be as high as 75 to 90% by 2080's. However, the severe class risk (over 80% damage) will not disappear in the future and most occurrences will be limited to December to early January according to the calculation. This phenomenon might be explained by shortened cold hardiness period caused by winter warming as well as sudden cold waves resulting from the higher inter-annual climate variability projected by the RCP8.5 scenario.