• Title/Summary/Keyword: A priori modeling

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A case of corporate failure prediction

  • Shin, Kyung-Shik;Jo, Hongkyu;Han, Ingoo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 1996.10a
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    • pp.199-202
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    • 1996
  • Although numerous studies demonstrate that one technique outperforms the others for a given data set, there is often no way to tell a priori which of these techniques will be most effective to solve a specific problem. Alternatively, it has been suggested that a better approach to classification problem might be to integrate several different forecasting techniques by combining their results. The issues of interest are how to integrate different modeling techniques to increase the prediction performance. This paper proposes the post-model integration method, which means integration is performed after individual techniques produce their own outputs, by finding the best combination of the results of each method. To get the optimal or near optimal combination of different prediction techniques. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied, which are particularly suitable for multi-parameter optimization problems with an objective function subject to numerous hard and soft constraints. This study applied three individual classification techniques (Discriminant analysis, Logit and Neural Networks) as base models to the corporate failure prediction context. Results of composite prediction were compared to the individual models. Preliminary results suggests that the use of integrated methods will offer improved performance in business classification problems.

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Measurement of Nonlinear Time-variant Source Characteristics of Intake and Exhaust Systems in Fluid Machines

  • Jang Seung-Ho;Ih Jeong-Guon
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.24 no.3E
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    • pp.87-89
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    • 2005
  • The acoustical sources of intake and exhaust systems in fluid machines are often characterized by the source impedance and strength using linear frequency-domain modeling. In the case of the sources which are nonlinear and time-variant, however, the source parameters were sometimes incorrectly obtained. In this paper, the source model and direct measurement technique are modified in order to evaluate the effect due to nonlinear and periodically time-varying source character as well as the linear property of the reflectivity of in-duct fluid machine source. With a priori known kinematical information of the source, the types of nonlinear time-variant terms can be presumed by a simple physical model, in which there is practically no restriction on the form of the model. The concept of source impedance can be extendable by introducing the linear frequency response function for each nonlinear or time-variant input. Extending the conventional method and adapting the reverse MISO technique, it is possible to develop a direct method that can deal with the nonlinear time-variant source parameters. The proposed direct method has a novel feature that there is no restriction on the probability or spectral natures of the excited sound pressure data. The present method is verified by the simulated measurements for simplified fluid machines. It is thought that the proposed method would be useful in predicting the insertion loss or the radiated sound level from intake or exhaust systems.

Analysis of shallow footings rested on tensionless foundations using a mixed finite element model

  • Lezgy-Nazargah, M.;Mamazizi, A.;Khosravi, H.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.81 no.3
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    • pp.379-394
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    • 2022
  • Shallow footings usually belonged to the category of thick plate structures. For accurate analysis of thick plates, the contribution of out-of-plane components of the stress tensor should be considered in the formulation. Most of the available shallow footing models are based on the classical plate theories, which usually neglect the effects of the out-of-plane stresses. In this study, a mixed-field plate finite element model (FEM) is developed for the analysis of shallow footings rested on soil foundations. In addition to displacement field variables, the out-of-plane components of the stress tensor are also assumed as a priori unknown variables. For modeling the interaction effect of the soil under and outside of the shallow footings, the modified Vlasov theory is used. The tensionless nature of the supporting soil foundation is taken into account by adopting an incremental, iterative procedure. The equality requirement of displacements at the interface between the shallow footing and soil is fulfilled using the penalty approach. For validation of the present mixed FEM, the obtained results are compared with the results of 3D FEM and previous results published in the literature. The comparisons show the present mixed FEM is an efficient and accurate tool for solving the problems of shallow footings rested on subsoil.

The Hybrid Systems for Credit Rating

  • Goo, Han-In;Jo, Hong-Kyuo;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 1997
  • Although numerous studies demonstrate that one technique outperforms the others for a given data set, it is hard to tell a priori which of these techniques will be the most effective to solve a specific problem. It has been suggested that the better approach to classification problem might be to integrate several different forecasting techniques by combining their results. The issues of interest are how to integrate different modeling techniques to increase the predictive performance. This paper proposes the post-model integration method, which tries to find the best combination of the results provided by individual techniques. To get the optimal or near optimal combination of different prediction techniques, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are applied, which are particularly suitable for multi-parameter optimization problems with an object function subject to numerous hard and soft constraints. This study applies three individual classification techniques (Discriminant analysis, Logit model and Neural Networks) as base models for the corporate failure prediction. The results of composite predictions are compared with the individual models. Preliminary results suggests that the use of integrated methods improve the performance of business classification.

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DEM Generation by the Matching Line Using Exterior Orientation Parameters of the IKONOS Geo Imagery (IKONOS 위성영상의 외부표정요소로부터 정합선 수립에 의한 DEM 생성)

  • Lee, Hyo-Seong;Ahn, Ki-Weon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.367-376
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    • 2006
  • This study determines the optimum polynomial of exterior orientation parameters(EOPs) as a function of line number of linear array scanner. To estimate priori EOPs, meta data of IKONOS scene and ground control points are used. We select a first order polynomial and a constant for position elements modeling and rotation elements modeling. Positioning accuracy of the determined EOPs is compared with that of RPCs bias-corrected by the least squares adjustment. There is almost no difference between accuracies of the two methods. To obtain digital elevation model(DEM), matching line is established by the EOPs. The DEM is compared with DEM generated by ERDAS IMAGINE software, which utilizes the bias-corrected RPCs. Height differences of DEMs by the two methods are ranged within a allowable standard deviation. The produced DEM, therefore, shows accuracy similar to the verified method.

Fast Bayesian Inversion of Geophysical Data (지구물리 자료의 고속 베이지안 역산)

  • Oh, Seok-Hoon;Kwon, Byung-Doo;Nam, Jae-Cheol;Kee, Duk-Kee
    • Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.161-174
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    • 2000
  • Bayesian inversion is a stable approach to infer the subsurface structure with the limited data from geophysical explorations. In geophysical inverse process, due to the finite and discrete characteristics of field data and modeling process, some uncertainties are inherent and therefore probabilistic approach to the geophysical inversion is required. Bayesian framework provides theoretical base for the confidency and uncertainty analysis for the inference. However, most of the Bayesian inversion require the integration process of high dimension, so massive calculations like a Monte Carlo integration is demanded to solve it. This method, though, seemed suitable to apply to the geophysical problems which have the characteristics of highly non-linearity, we are faced to meet the promptness and convenience in field process. In this study, by the Gaussian approximation for the observed data and a priori information, fast Bayesian inversion scheme is developed and applied to the model problem with electric well logging and dipole-dipole resistivity data. Each covariance matrices are induced by geostatistical method and optimization technique resulted in maximum a posteriori information. Especially a priori information is evaluated by the cross-validation technique. And the uncertainty analysis was performed to interpret the resistivity structure by simulation of a posteriori covariance matrix.

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Development of Practical Lumped Contaminant Modeling Approach for Fate and Transport of Complex Organic Mixtures (복잡한 혼합 유기오염물의 거동 예측을 위한 실용적인 오염물 집략화 모델링 기법 개발)

  • Joo, Jin-Chul;Song, Ho-Myeon
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.18-28
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    • 2009
  • Both feasibility and accuracy of lumped approach to group 12 organic compounds in mixtures into a fewer number of pseudocompounds in sorption processes were evaluated using mixtures containing organic compounds with various physicochemical properties and low-surface-area mineral sorbents. The lumped approach for sorption to simulated mineral sorbents was developed by cluster analysis from statistics. Using the lumped approach, the sorption estimated from both reduced number of pseudocompounds and their sorption parameters (i.e., $K_f$, n) can approximate sorption behavior of complex organic mixtures. Additionally, the pseudocompounds for various mixtures to different types of low-surface-area mineral sorbents can be estimated a priori from the physicochemical properties of organic compound (i.e., ${\gamma_w}^{sat}$). Therefore, the lumped approach may help to simplify the complex fate and transport model of organic contaminant mixtures, reduce experimental efforts, and yet provide results that are statistically identical for practical purposes. Further research is warranted to enhance the accuracy of lumped approach using the multiple regression analysis considering the H-bonding capacity, site concentrations, functional groups for mineral sorbents.

Restoration of the Stream Runoff by the Physical Deterministic Modeling and Formulation of Water Balance for the Catchment of Byungchun River in Chungcheong Province in Korea (물리 결정 모델링에 의한 충청도 병천천 유역의 하천 유출량 복원과 물 수지 수립)

  • KIM, Man-Kyu
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.37-53
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    • 2008
  • This study has developed a water balance model for the catchment of Byungchun river using a BROOK90 4.4e physical deterministic water balance model with the long-term meterological data and stream run off data obtained from the basin of Byungchun river in Korea. It is intended that the validation model with calibrated model fitting parameter can build a long-term water balance plan for a period when meterological data are available but stream runoff data are not. Results of this study have satisfied the first expectation as an experiment for water balance modeling since measured stream runoff data have turned out to be very similar to simulated stream runoff data. Through the confirmation of model fitting parameters and validated simulation, water balance for the period of 1998 to 2006 has been restored. Unless the conditions of geomophology, vegetation, soil and land use change, meterological data alone can produce various hydrometeorological data related to stream runoff amount, soil water amount, and evapotranspiration. This study opens up a new horizon in restoring water balance in the past as well planning water balance in the present. The obtained results from this study are expected to be used in predicting future water balance in the wake of the changes in climate and vegetation in Korea.

The Measurements of Data Accuracy and Error Detection in DEM using GRASS and Arc/Info (GRASS와 Arc/Info를 이용한 DEM 데이터의 정확도와 에러 측정)

  • Cho, Sung-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.3-7
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    • 1998
  • The issue of data accuracy brings a different perspective to the issue of GIS modeling, calls into a question the usefulness of data models such as DEM. Accuracy can be determined by randomly checking positional and attribute accuracy within a GIS data layer. With the increasing availability of DEM and the software capable of processing them, it is worthwhile to call attention for data accuracy and error analysis as GIS application depends on the priori established spatial data. The purpose of this paper was to investigate methods for data accuracy measurement and error detection methodology with two types of DEM's: 1 to 24,000 and 1 to 250,000 DEM released by U.S. Geological Survey. Another emphasis was given to the development of methodology for processing DEM's to create Arc/Info and GRASS layers. Data accuracy analysis with DEM was applied to a 250 sq.km area and an error was detected at a scale of 1:24,000 DEM. There were two possible reasons for this error: gross errors and blunders.

Concentrated Solar Flux Modeling for the Heat Transfer Analysis of Multi-Channeled Solar Receivers (다채널 태양열 흡수기의 열전달 해석을 위한 집광 열유속 모델링)

  • Lee, Hyun-Jin;Kim, Jong-Kyu;Lee, Sang-Nam;Kang, Yong-Heack
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 2011
  • The volumetric solar receiver is a key element of solar power plants using air. The solar flux distribution inside the receiver should be a priori known for its heat transfer analysis. Previous works have not considered characteristics of the solar flux although they change with radiative properties of receiver materials and receiver geometries. A numerical method, which is based on the Monte Carlo ray-tracing method, was developed in the current work. The solar flux distributions inside multi-channeled volumetric solar receivers were calculated when light is concentrated at the KIER solar furnace. It turned out that 99 percentage of the concentrated solar energy is absorbed within 15mm channel length for the channel radius smaller than 1.5mm. If the concentrated light is assumed to be diffuse, the absorbed solar energy at the channel entrance region is over predicted while the light penetrates more deeply into the channel. Once the presented results are imported into the heat transfer analysis, one could examine effects of material property and geometry of the receiver on air temperature profiles.