• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.65-73
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• 2016

We estimated the averaged maximum incidences of bacterial canker at suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s and 2050s using D-PSA-K model with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. Though there was a little difference between the estimation using RCP4.5 and that using RCP8.5, the estimated maximum disease incidences were more than 75% at all the suitable sites in Korea except for some southern coastal areas and Jeju island under the assumption that there are a plenty of infections to cause the symptoms. We also analyzed the intermediate and final outputs of D-PSA-K model to find out the trends on the change in disease incidence affected by climate change. Whereas increase of damage to kiwifruit canes in a non-frozen environment caused by bacterial canker was estimated at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios, rate of necrosis increase caused by the bacterial canker pathogen in a frozen environment during the last overwintering season was predicted to be reduced at almost all the suitable sites in both the climate change scenarios. Directions of change in estimated maximum incidence varied with sites and scenarios. Whereas the maximum disease incidence at 3.14% of suitable sites for kiwifruit cultivation in 2020s under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to increase by 10% or more in 2050s, the maximum disease incidence at 25.41% of the suitable sites under RCP8.5 scenario was estimated so.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.476-488
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• 2013

Refractory Dissolved Organic Carbon (RDOC) is becoming more important index on management of water quality, water regulation as well as ecosystem management. We analyzed trends of RDOC using elasticity in the Nakdong river basin. If climate elasticity of streamflow is positive, change of streamflow can be defined by the proportional change in a climatic variable such as precipitation and temperature. Elasticity of streamflow to precipitation and elasticity of RDOC to precipitation were estimated in the present, and we also analyzed the variation of elasticity in the future using climate change scenarios, RCP 8.5/ 4.5. Mean streamflow elasticity is 1.655, and mean RDOC elasticity is 1.983. RDOC is more sensitive to precipitation change than streamflow. The variation of RDOC is directly proportion to precipitation in all scenarios, but the Load of RDOC is dependent on precipitation as well as others. There is a need for additional correlation analysis between RDOC and other factors for accurate prediction.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.13 no.11
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• pp.5410-5426
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• 2019

With the advent of the fifth-generation (5G) era, Massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) relay systems have experienced the rapid development. Recently, the performance analysis models of Massive MIMO relay systems have been proposed, which are mostly based on Rayleigh fading channels. In order to create a more suitable model for 5G Internet of Things scenarios, our study is based on the Rician fading channels, where line-of-sight (LOS) path exists in the channels. In this paper, we assume the channel state information (CSI) is perfect. In this case, we use statistical information to derive the analytical exact closed-form expression for the achievable sum rate of the uplink for the Massive MIMO two-hop relay system over Rician fading channels. Moreover, considering the different communication scenarios, we derive the analytical exact closed-form expression for the achievable sum rates of the uplink for other three scenarios. Finally, based on these expressions, we make simulations and analyze the performance under different transmit powers and Rician-factors, which provides a theoretical basis and reference for further research.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.4 no.5
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• pp.641-653
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• 2008

This paper proposes a practical and realistic method to establish an optimal lifetime maintenance strategy for deteriorating bridges by considering the life-cycle performance as well as the life-cycle cost. The proposed method offers a set of optimal tradeoff maintenance scenarios among other conflicting objectives, such as minimizing cost and maximizing performance. A genetic algorithm is used to generate a set of maintenance scenarios that is a multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem related to the lifetime performance and the life-cycle cost as separate objective functions. A computer program, which generates optimal maintenance scenarios, was developed based on the proposed method using the life-cycle costs and the performance of bridges. The subordinate relation between bridge members has been considered to decide optimal maintenance sequence and a corresponding algorithm has been implemented into the program. The developed program has been used to present a procedure for finding an optimal maintenance scenario for steel-girder bridges on the Korean National Road. Through this bridge maintenance scenario analysis, it is expected that the developed method and program can be effectively used to allow bridge managers an optimal maintenance strategy satisfying various constraints and requirements.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.461-469
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• 2006

As a frontier of Sustainable Basin Research Initiative, we commenced a scenario-driven planning and evaluation research project which is to identify the strategic policy scenarios. As a part of the project, this study attempts to estimate the ecological impacts of land cover changes using landscape indices at the whole basin level. We analyzed spatio-temporal characteristics of natural area including forest, agricultural land, water area, barren which play an important role in nature-friendly sustainable watershed management. The results of analysis shelved that the size and diversity of natural area have been reduced, while patch number and isolation have been increased in proportion to urbanization in 1974, 1995 and four future scenarios in the Ara River Basin. Also, we estimated that the natural area could be conserved to some degree in the SD or DE scenarios with a concept of environment-friendly development and lifestyle. Various strategic environment policies may be evaluated and designed on the basis of the method, that is, scenario approach and landscape ecological analysis suggested in this study.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.83 no.5
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• pp.593-607
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• 2022

To solve the problem of detecting structural damage, a two-stage method using the Kalman filter and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is proposed. In this method, the first PSO population is enhanced using the Kalman filter method based on dynamic responses. Due to noise in the sensor responses and errors in the damage detection process, the accuracy of the damage detection process is reduced. This method proposes a novel approach for solve this problem by integrating the Kalman filter and sensitivity analysis. In the Kalman filter, an approximate damage equation is considered as the equation of state and the damage detection equation based on sensitivity analysis is considered as the observation equation. The first population of PSO are the random damage scenarios. These damage scenarios are estimated using a step of the Kalman filter. The results of this stage are then used to detect the exact location of the damage and its severity with the PSO algorithm. The efficiency of the proposed method is investigated using three numerical examples: a 31-element planer truss, a 52-element space dome, and a 56-element space truss. In these examples, damage is detected for several scenarios in two states: using the no noise responses and using the noisy responses. The results show that the precision and efficiency of the proposed method are appropriate in structural damage detection.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.505-517
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• 2023

This study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality and air quality control policies on near-term climate change in East Asia, by examining three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from five climate models. Specifically, low carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP1-1.9), high carbon and weak air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0), and high carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) are compared. For these scenarios, the near-term climate (2045-2054 average) changes are evaluated for surface air temperature (SAT), hot temperature extreme intensity (TXx), and hot temperature extreme frequency (TX90p). In all three scenarios, SAT, TXx, and TX90p are projected to increase in East Asia, while carbon neutrality reduces the increasing rate of SAT and hot temperature extremes. Air quality control strengthens the warming rate. These opposed mitigation effects are robustly forced in all model simulations. Nonetheless, the impact of carbon neutrality overcomes the impact of air quality control. These results suggest that fast carbon neutrality, more effective than an air quality control policy, is necessary to slowdown future warming trend in East Asia.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.55-68
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• 2011

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has identified the causes of climate change and come up with measures to address it at the global level. Its key component of the work involves developing and assessing future climate change scenarios. The IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2007 identified a new greenhouse gas concentration scenario "Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)" and established the framework and development schedules for Climate Modeling (CM), Integrated Assessment Modeling(IAM), Impact Adaptation Vulnerability(IAV) community for the fifth IPCC Assessment Reports while 130 researchers and users took part in. The CM community at the IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2008, agreed on a new set of coordinated climate model experiments, the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), which consists of more than 30 standardized experiment protocols for the shortterm and long-term time scales, in order to enhance understanding on climate change for the IPCC AR5 and to develop climate change scenarios and to address major issues raised at the IPCC AR4. Since early 2009, fourteen countries including the Korea have been carrying out CMIP5-related projects. Withe increasing interest on climate change, in 2009 the COdinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment(CORDEX) has been launched to generate regional and local level information on climate change. The National Institute of Meteorological Research(NIMR) under the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has contributed to the IPCC AR4 by developing climate change scenarios based on IPCC SRES using ECHO-G and embarked on crafting national scenarios for climate change as well as RCP-based global ones by engaging in international projects such as CMIP5 and CORDEX. NIMR/KMA will make a contribution to drawing the IPCC AR5 and will develop national climate change scenarios reflecting geographical factors, local climate characteristics and user needs and provide them to national IAV and IAM communites to assess future regional climate impacts and take action.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.225-236
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• 2024

To prepare for the impending climate crisis, it is necessary to establish policies and strategies based on scientific predictions and analyses of climate change impacts. For this, climate change should be considered, however, in conventional scenario-led approach, researchers select and utilize representative climate change scenarios. Using the representative climate change scenarios makes prediction results high uncertain and low reliable, which leads to have limitations in applying them to relevant policies and design standards. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize scenario-neutral approach considering possible change ranges due to climate change. In this study, hydrologic risk was estimated for Boryeong after generating 343 time series of climate stress and calculating drought return period from bivariate drought frequency analysis. Considering 18 scenarios of SSP1-2.6 and 18 scenarios of SSP5-8.5, the results indicated that the hydrologic risks of drought occurrence with maximum return period ranged 0.15±0.025 within 20 years and 0.3125±0.0625 within 50 years, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to establish drought policies and countermeasures in consideration of the corresponding hydrologic risks in Boryeong.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.103 no.4
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• pp.605-612
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• 2014

This study was conducted to predict the changes of yearly productive area distribution for Quercus mongolica under climate change scenarios. For this, site index equations by ecoprovinces were first developed using environmental factors. Using the large data set from both a digital forest site map and a climatic map, a total of 48 environmental factors including 19 climatic variables were regressed on site index to develop site index equations. Two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were then applied to the developed site index equations and the distribution of productive areas for Quercus mongolica were predicted from 2020 to 2100 years in 10-year intervals. The results from this study show that the distribution of productive areas for Quercus mongolica generally decreases as time passes. It was also found that the productive area distribution of Quercus mongolica is different over time under two climate change scenarios. The RCP 8.5 which is more extreme climate change scenario showed much more decreased distribution of productive areas than the RCP 4.5. It is expected that the study results on the amount and distribution of productive areas over time for Quercus mongolica under climate change scenarios could provide valuable information necessary for the policies of suitable species on a site.