• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.201-208
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• 2002

This study suggests a new paradigm to build the identity of railway culture design, since it plays a critical role in enhancing competitiveness of culture and design. It is considered to be a valuable factor to improve users' satisfaction and to have a new effect on the railway industry. This study is focused on systematic study on the culture ＆ design and competitiveness for railway industry, that emphasizing on making necessary strategic scenarios accordingly. Consequently, it is going to make higher added values to secure a footing and advanced images of railway industry.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.279-292
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• 2023

Structural design against the progressive collapse has been a vital necessity for decades due to occasional tragic events. The question of whether designed structures against the progressive collapse are still robust if subjected to multi-hazard scenarios containing column removal and successive localized fires is ad-dressed in the current study. Two seven-story steel structures with an identical area but different structural configurations of 4- and 5-bays are designed against the progressive collapse; the structural components are also fireproofed for a 60 min fire resistance. The structures are then subjected to different column re-moval scenarios over different stories followed immediately by localized fires. Results indicate that the structures are not able to keep their stability under all of the considered scenarios; the 4-bay structure is more vulnerable than the 5-bay structure. It is also indicated that upper stories are more sensitive toward the considered scenarios than lower stories. To advance structural safety, two strategies are adopted: in-creasing the thickness of the insulation materials to reduce the thermal effects, or, increasing the safety fac-tor (ΩN) of the structures when designing against the progressive collapse. As for the first strategy, provid-ing a 35% and a 25% increase in the insulation thicknesses of the structural components of the 4-bay and 5-bay structures, respectively, can prevent a progressive collapse to trigger. As for the second strategy, in-creasing ΩN by 10% can enhance the structural integrity to where no collapse occurs under all of the sce-narios.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.25-36
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• 2013

This study aims to perform the economic analysis to the use of solar power facilities in rural villages considering the climate change scenario. IPCC climate change scenarios in the recently adopted the RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP6.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) was used. By RCP scenarios, solar radiation, depending on the scenario in 2100, respectively, 3.6%, 2.5%, 1.9%, 1.1% was assumed to increase. From the economic analysis(payback period is 25 year) on 8 points of each province, in all cases of normal data and four RCP scenarios, at all points analyzed were NPV indicate a negative, BC ratio less than 1.0, respectively. In the case of Mokpo, Chunnam RCP8.5, BC ratio were found to be up to a 0.92, followed by 0.89 in the case of RCP8.5 in Jinju, Kyungnam shows, while the minimum was in Jeju. BC ratio is 1.0 or bigger, in order for the normal solar radiation data in Mokpo, Chonnam was the minimum that it takes 37 years. Similarly, in the case of RCP scenarios, 30 years in Mokpo, Chonnam RCP8.5 and 31 years in the cases of Jinju, Kyungnam and Jeonju, Cheonbuk RCP8.5 were analyzed. It was analyzed that RCP8.5 has the highest value. BC analysis models for each of the factors, the results of the sensitivity analysis, the initial installation costs, electricity sales price, discount rate in the order of economy showed higher sensitivity, and the rest factors showed lower changes. Although there are some differences of solar radiation by region, but in Korea most facilities in rural areas, the use of solar power was considered to be economical enough, considering change of several factors with high sensitivity, such as increasing of government subsidies for the solar power installation of the facility, rising oil prices due to a rise in electricity sales price, and a change in discount rate. In particular, when considering climate change scenarios, the use of solar energy for rural areas of the judgment that there was more economical.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.96-109
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• 2024

Background: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government initiated the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project including regeneration and afforestation approaches. An effort was made to assess the distribution characteristics of afforested species under present and future climatic scenarios using ecological niche modelling. For sustainable forest management, landscape ecology can play a significant role. A significant change in the potential distribution of tree species is expected globally with changing climate. Ecological niche modeling provides the valuable information about the current and future distribution of species that can play crucial role in deciding the potential sites for afforestation which can be used by government institutes for afforestation programs. In this context, the potential distribution of 8 tree species, Cedrus deodara, Dalbergia sissoo, Juglans regia, Pinus wallichiana, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Senegalia modesta, Populus ciliata, and Vachellia nilotica was modeled. Results: Maxent species distribution model was used to predict current and future distribution of tree species using bioclimatic variables along with soil type and elevation. Future climate scenarios, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were considered for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The model predicted high risk of decreasing potential distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios for years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, respectively. Recent afforestation conservation sites of these 8 tree species do not fall within their predicted potential habitat for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. Conclusions: Each tree species responded independently in terms of its potential habitat to future climatic conditions. Cedrus deodara and P. ciliata are predicted to migrate to higher altitude towards north in present and future climate scenarios. Habitat of D. sissoo, P. wallichiana, J. regia, and V. nilotica is practiced to be declined in future climate scenarios. Eucalyptus camaldulensis is expected to be expanded its suitability area in future with eastward shift. Senegalia modesta habitat increased in the middle of the century but decreased afterwards in later half of the century. The changing and shifting forests create challenges for sustainable landscapes. Therefore, the study is an attempt to provide management tools for monitoring the climate change-driven shifting of forest landscapes.

• International Journal of Quality Innovation
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.34-42
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• 2004

In the traditional use of conjoint analysis, in order to evaluate the relative importance of several elements composing a service, interviewed customers are asked to express their judgement about different scenarios (specific combinations of elements). In order to reduce the number of possible scenarios, design of experiments methodology is usually exploited. Previous experiences show that, even a limited number of proposed scenarios cause difficulty in answering for the interviewed customer if the scenarios differ for elements of very low interest to him/her. Consequently, a high rate of abandon of the interview has been observed. In this study it is assumed that a service can be decomposed in several improvable elements and/or enriched with new "optionals". In both cases, what under study is assumed to be a set of dichotomous attributes. For each of these attributes, its marginal contribution to customer satisfaction has to be modelled and estimated. To obtain the required information, an opportune questionnaire is proposed to a sample of interviewed customers. An interviewing procedure consisting in a customer driven design of scenarios is followed, starting from the full-optional scenario and eliminating one by one the less satisfying elements. For each interviewed customer, a ranking of attributes is so obtained. Then, by asking the interviewed customer to evaluate on a metric scale the scenarios he previously selected, a rating of attributes can also be obtained. A case study conducted in collaboration with a public transportation company is presented. Contrarily to previous experiences, the abandon rate proved extremely reduced.y reduced.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.700-709
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• 2002

Present condition of the Youngsan River pollution is serious. Concentrations of organic materials and nutrients are high and algal bloom takes place frequently. The pollution is mainly caused by domestic wastewater input from urban areas like Kwangju and Naju City. In this study, 6 times of water quality surveys were done for mainstream and tributaries. Delivery ratios of each tributaries are calculated with the water quality and flow data. With Arc/View GIS, sub-basin are divided and pollution loads are estimated. These data are used for water quality modeling. River quality improvement effects are analysed with 5 scenarios including process upgrade of present WWTPs and construction of new WWTPs. These scenarios are applied for the Youngsan River based on the 7Q10 and Q275. And total wastewater treatment cost in the basin is analysed for each scenario.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.10
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• pp.905-916
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the climate change impact on watershed hydrology and flow duration in Geum River basin ($9,645.5km^2$) especially by extreme scenarios. The rainfall related extreme index, STARDEX (STAtistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of EXtremes) was adopted to select the future extreme scenario from the 10 GCMs with RCP 8.5 scenarios by four projection periods (Historical: 1975~2005, 2020s: 2011~2040, 2050s: 2041~2070, 2080s: 2071~2100). As a result, the 5 scenarios of wet (CESM1-BGC and HadGEM2-ES), normal (MPI-ESM-MR), and dry (INM-CM4 and FGOALS-s2) were selected and applied to SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The wet scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2080s period. The 2080s evapotranspiration (ET) of wet scenarios varied from -3.2 to +3.1 mm, the 2080s total runoff (TR) varied from +5.5 to +128.4 mm. The dry scenarios showed big differences comparing with the normal scenario in 2020s period. The 2020s ET for dry scenarios varied from -16.8 to -13.3 mm and the TR varied from -264.0 to -132.3 mm respectively. For the flow duration change, the CFR (coefficient of flow regime, Q10/Q355) was altered from +4.2 to +10.5 for 2080s wet scenarios and from +1.7 to +2.6 for 2020s dry scenarios. As a result of the flow duration analysis according to the change of the hydrological factors of the Geum River basin applying the extreme climate change scenario, INM-CM4 showed suitable scenario to show extreme dry condition and FGOALS-s2 showed suitable scenario for the analysis of the drought condition with large flow duration variability. HadGEM2-ES was evaluated as a scenario that can be used for maximum flow analysis because the flow duration variability was small and CESM1-BGC was evaluated as a scenario that can be applied to the case of extreme flood analysis with large flow duration variability.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.37 no.5_1
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• pp.833-845
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• 2021

Quantification of carbon absorption and understanding the human induced land use changes forms one of the major study with respect to global climatic changes. An attempt study has been made to quantify the carbon absorption by land use changes through remote sensing technology. However, it focused on past carbon absorption changes. So prediction of future carbon absorption changes is insufficient. This study simulated land use change using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model and predicted future changes in carbon absorption considering climate change scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Results of this study, in the RCP 4.5 scenarios there predicted to be loss of 7.92% of carbon absorption, but in the RCP 8.5 scenarios was 13.02%. Therefore, the approach used in this study is expected to enable exploration of future carbon absorption change considering other climate change scenarios.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.421-426
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• 2016

Significant warming by anthropogenic influences over Korea is analyzed using CMIP5 projections (monthly mean, maximum and minimum temperatures) from RCP 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6 scenarios. Time of emergence (TOE) in JJA and DJF is chosen as the year when the magnitude of warming against the natural climate variability satisfies S/N>2 in 80% of the models in this study. Significant emergence in JJA is expected to appear in 2030s in three RCP scenarios, earlier than TOE in DJF. In DJF, TOE is expected to be 2040s in RCP 8.5 and is delayed in 2060s, 2080s in RCP 4.5, 2.6, respectively. Later emergence in low emission scenarios implies an importance of climate change mitigation consistent with previous studies. Maximum and minimum temperatures show similar results to the case of mean temperature. ToE is found to be affected by the amplitude of natural variability by season, variables and model spread, which requires further understanding.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.56 no.5
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• pp.457-463
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• 2019

Damage control is a very important preliminary and primary activity to improve the survivability of naval ships by preventing spread of damage, and various types of onboard damage control training are conducted regularly on naval ships. The scenarios for these trainings should be well organized to improve the training efficiency. However, at present, it takes much time and effort to generate the training scenarios and there is a problem that the procedures and contents of the scenarios vary widely depending on the persons who generate, without the established methods and standards. In this paper, an efficient generation method of damage control onboard training scenarios has been established, especially for flood and fire o n naval ships. Also a computer program has been developed based on the established method. The results showed that this method and computer program reduce the time and effort to generate these scenarios, and it is hoped that the method be used as a ROK Navy Standard.