• Title/Summary/Keyword: 5 scenarios

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Simulation of land use changes in Hanam city using an object-based cellular automata model (객체기반 셀룰러오토마타 모형을 이용한 하남시 토지이용변화 모의)

  • KIM, Il-Kwon;KWON, Hyuk-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.202-217
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    • 2018
  • Urban land use changes by human activities affect spatial configuration of urban areas and their surrounding ecosystems. Although it is necessary to identify patterns of urban land use changes and to simulate future changes for sustainable urban management, simulation of land use changes is still challenging due to their uncertainty and complexity. Cellular automata model is widely used to simulate urban land use changes based on cell-based approaches. However, cell-based models can not reflect features of actual land use changes and tend to simulate fragmented patterns. To solve these problems, object-based cellular automata models are developed, which simulate land use changes by land patches. This study simulate future land use changes in Hanam city using an object-based cellular automata model. Figure of merit of the model is 24.1%, which assess accuracy of the simulation results. When a baseline scenario was applied, urban decreased by 16.4% while agriculture land increased by 9.0% and grass increased by 19.3% in a simulation result of 2038 years. In an urban development scenario, urban increased by 22.4% and agriculture land decreased by 26.1% while forest and grass did not have significant changes. In a natural conservation scenario, urban decreased by 29.5% and agriculture land decreased by 8.8% while each forest and grass increased by 6% and 42.8%. The model can be useful to simulate realistic urban land use change effectively, and then, applied as a decision support tool for spatial planning.

Water yield estimation of the Bagmati basin of Nepal using GIS based InVEST model (GIS기반 InVEST모형을 이용한 네팔 Bagmati유역의 물생산량 산정)

  • Bastola, Shiksha;Seong, Yeon Jeong;Lee, Sang Hyup;Jung, Younghun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.9
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    • pp.637-645
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    • 2019
  • Among various ecosystem services provided by the basin, this study deals with water yield (WY) estimation in the Bagmati basin of Nepal. Maps of where water used for different facilities like water supply, irrigation, hydropower etc. are generated helps planning and management of facilities. These maps also help to avoid unintended impacts on provision and production of services. Several studies have focused on the provision of ecosystem services (ES) on the basin. Most of the studies have are primarily focused on carbon storage and drinking water supply. Meanwhile, none of the studies has specifically highlighted water yield distribution on sub-basin scale and as per land use types in the Bagmati basin of Nepal. Thus, this study was originated with an aim to compute the total WY of the basin along with computation on a sub-basin scale and to study the WY capacity of different landuse types of the basin. For the study, InVEST water yield model, a popular model for ecosystem service assessment based on Budyko hydrological method is used along with ArcGIS. The result shows water yield per hectare is highest on sub-basin 5 ($15216.32m^3/ha$) and lowest on sub-basin 6 ($10847.15m^3/ha$). Likewise, built-up landuse has highest WY capacity followed by grassland and agricultural area. The sub-basin wise and LULC specific WY estimations are expected to provide scenarios for development of interrelated services on local scales. Also, these estimations are expected to promote sustainable land use policies and interrelated water management services.

An experimental study on the influence of undular bore on the hydraulic stability at Shinwol rainwater storage and drainage system (불규칙 단파가 신월저류배수시설의 수리적 안정성에 미치는 영향에 대한 실험 연구)

  • Oh, Jun Oh
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.313-323
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    • 2019
  • Deep Tunnel system is a large-scale urban flood control facility installed underground in order to reinforce the lack of drainage systems in developed cities. In a structure like a deep tunnel system, the undular bore generated in the downstream causes a problem in the hydraulic stability of the tunnel. In this study, to investigate the influence of the undular bore on the hydraulic stability at the "Shinwol rainwater storage and drainage system", under construction for the first time in the country, a hydraulic model experiment was conducted on various flooding inflow scenarios. As a result of the hydraulic model experiment carried out in this study, the undular bore generated downstream is trapped in the pipe while moving to upstream, pushes the compressed air. It is judged that overflow occurred by choking the vertical drop shaft in the process when this compressed air is being exhaust through the upstream vertical drop shaft and blocking flood inflow. In addition, the analysis of velocity of undular bore shows that the undular bore transfers energy, and at this time, the pressure rose in the pipe and the velocity increment occurred of the undular bore. Further studies are needed to predict the size and velocity of undular bore, which plays an important role in the hydraulic stability of the tunnel in the deep tunnel system.

Development and experimental verification of vortex typed nonfilter nonpoint source pollution reduction device (와류형 미필터 비점오염저감장치의 개발과 실험적 검증)

  • Jang, Suk Hwan;Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Lee, Hae-Kwang;Hwang, Sung-Gyu
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.265-277
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study was to develop and verify an effective vortex typed nonfilter nonpoint source pollution reduction device. To verify this pollution reduction device, a total of twelves scenarios (three rainfall intensities${\times}$two states${\times}$two steps) of experiments were conducted using pollutants. First, simulated inflow (rainfall intensity 2.5 mm/hr: $0.00152m^3/s$, rainfall intensity 3.395 mm/hr: $0.00206m^3/s$, rainfall intensity 6.870 mm/hr: $0.00326m^3/s$) was calculated. Second, pollutants (mixture of 25% of four particle sizes) were selected and injected. Third, pollutant removal efficiencies of this device at its initial state and operating states were measured. As a result of analysis based on rainfall intensity, the concentration of pollutants was decreased by the device at initial and operating states at all rainfall intensities. Its pollutant removal efficiency was more than 80%, the standard set by the Ministry of Environment. Its pollutant removal efficiency was gradually increased over time, reaching approximately 90%. Its pollutant removal efficiency was higher in its operating state than that in its initial state. Therefore, nonpoint source pollutants can be effectively removed by this vortex typed nonpoint source pollution reduction device developed in this study.

A study on multiple imputation modeling for Korean EAPS (경제활동인구조사 자료를 위한 다중대체 방식 연구)

  • Park, Min-Jeong;Bae, Yoonjong;Kim, Joungyoun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.685-696
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    • 2021
  • The Korean Economically Active Population Survey (KEAPS) is a national survey that produces employment-related statistics. The main purpose of the survey is to find out the economic activity status (employed/ unemployed/ non-employed) of the people. KEAPS has a unique characteristics caused by the survey method. In this study, through understanding of structural non-response and utilization of past data, we would like to present an improved imputation model. The performance of the proposed model is compared with the existing model through simulation. The performance of the imputation models is evaluated based on the degree of mathing/nonmatching rates. For this, we employ the KEAPS data in November 2019. For the randomly selected ones among the total 59,996 respondents, the six explanatory variables, which are critical in determining the economic activity states, are treated as non-response. The proposed model includes industry variable and job status variable in addition to the explanatory variables used in the precedent research. This is based on the linkage and utilization of past data. The simulation results confirm that the proposed model with additional variables outperforms the existing model in the precedent research. In addition, we consider various scenarios for the number of non-responders by the economic activity status.

A Study on the Framework for Analyzing the Effectiveness of Cyber Weapon Systems Associated with Cyberspace and Physical Space (사이버 공간과 물리 공간이 연계된 사이버 무기체계의 효과성 분석 프레임워크 연구)

  • Jang, Ji-su;Kim, Kook-jin;Yoon, Suk-joon;Park, Min-seo;Ahn, Myung-Kil;Shin, Dong-kyoo
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2022
  • As operations that were only conducted in physical space in the past change to operations that include cyberspace, it is necessary to analyze how cyber attacks affect weapon systems using cyber systems. For this purpose, it would be meaningful to analyze a tool that analyzes the effects of physical weapon systems in connection with cyber. The ROK military has secured and is operating the US JMEM, which contains the results of analyzing the effects of physical weapon systems. JMEM is applied only to conventional weapon systems, so it is impossible to analyze the impact of cyber weapon systems. In this study, based on the previously conducted cyber attack damage assessment framework, a framework for analyzing the impact of cyber attacks on physical missions was presented. To this end, based on the MOE and MOP of physical warfare, a cyber index for the analysis of cyber weapon system effectiveness was calculated. In addition, in conjunction with JMEM, which is used as a weapon system effect manual in physical operations, a framework was designed and tested to determine the mission impact by comparing and analyzing the results of the battle in cyberspace with the effects of physical operations. In order to prove the proposed framework, we analyzed and designed operational scenarios through domestic and foreign military manuals and previous studies, defined assets, and conducted experiments. As a result of the experiment, the larger the decrease in the cyber mission effect value, the greater the effect on physical operations. It can be used to predict the impact of physical operations caused by cyber attacks in various operations, and it will help the battlefield commander to make quick decisions.

Analysis of Water Quality Impact of Hapcheon Dam Reservoir According to Changes in Watershed Runoff Using ANN (ANN을 활용한 유역유출 변화에 따른 합천댐 저수지 수질영향 분석)

  • Jo, Bu Geon;Jung, Woo Suk;Lee, Jong Moon;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.25-37
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    • 2022
  • Climate change is becoming increasingly unpredictable. This has led to changes in various systems such as ecosystems, human life and hydrological cycles. In particular, the recent unpredictable climate change frequently causes extreme droughts and torrential rains, resulting in complex water resources disasters that cause water pollution due to inundation and retirement rather than primary disasters. SWAT was used as a watershed model to analyze future runoff and pollutant loads. The climate scenario analyzed the RCP4.5 climate scenario of the Meteorological Agency standard scenario (HadGEM3-RA) using the normal quantitative mapping method. Runoff and pollutant load analysis were performed by linkage simulation of climate scenario and watershed model. Finally, the results of application and verification of linkage model and analysis of future water quality change due to climate change were presented. In this study, we simulated climate change scenarios using artificial neural networks, analyzed changes in water temperature and turbidity, and compared the results of dams with artificial neural network results through W2 model, a reservoir water quality model. The results of this study suggest the possibility of applying the nonlinearity and simplicity of neural network model to Hapcheon dam water quality prediction using climate change.

A Study on the Introduction and Application of Core Technologies of Smart Motor-Graders for Automated Road Construction (도로 시공 자동화를 위한 스마트 모터 그레이더의 구성 기술 소개 및 적용에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hyune-Jun;Lee, Sang-Min;Song, Chang-Heon;Cho, Jung-Woo;Oh, Joo-Young
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.298-311
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    • 2022
  • Some problems, such as aging workers, a decreased population due to a low birth rate, and shortage of skilled workers, are rising in construction sites. Therefore research for smart construction technology that can be improved for productivity, safety, and quality has been recently developed with government support by replacing traditional construction technology with advanced digital technology. In particular, the motor grader that mainly performs road surface flattening is a construction machine that requires the application of automation technology for repetitive construction. It is predicted that the construction period will be shortened if the construction automation technology such as trajectory tracking, automation work, and remote control technology is applied. In this study, we introduce the hardware and software architecture of the smart motor grader to apply unmanned and automation technology and then analyze the traditional earthwork method of the motor grader. We suggested the application plans for the path pattern and blade control method of the smart motor grader based on this. In addition, we verified the performance of waypoint-based path-following depending on scenarios and the blade control's performance through tests.

A Study on the Safety Improvement of Vessel Traffic in the Busan New Port Entrance (부산신항 진출입 항로 내 선박 통항 안전성 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Bong-kwon;Park, Young-soo;Kim, Nieun;Kim, Sora;Park, Hyungoo;Shin, Dongsu
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.321-330
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    • 2022
  • Busan New Port manages the largest volume of traffic among Korean ports, and accounts for 68.5% of the total volume of the Busan port. Due to this increase in volume, ultra large container ships call at Busan New Port. When the additional south container terminal as well as ongoing construction project of the west container terminal are completed, various encounters may occur at the Busan New Port entrance, which may cause collision risk.s Thus, the purpose of this study was to provide a plan to improve the safety of vessel traffic, in the in/out bound fairway of Busan New Port. For this purpose, the status of arrivals and departures of vessels in Busan New Port, was examined through maritime traffic flow analysis. Additionally, risk factors and safety measures were identified, by AHP analysis with ship operators of the study area. Also, based on the derived safety measures, scenarios were set using the Environmental Stress model (ES model), and the traffic risk level of each safety measure was identified through simulation. As a result, it is expected that setting the no entry area for one-way traffic would have a significant effect on mitigating risks at the Busan New Port entrance. This study can serve as a basis for preparing safety measures, to improve the navigation of vessels using Busan New Port. If safety measures are prepared in the future, it is necessary to verify the safety by using the traffic volume and flow changes according to the newly-opened berths.

Analysis of effects of drought on water quality using HSPF and QUAL-MEV (HSPF 및 QUAL-MEV를 이용한 가뭄이 수질에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Lee, Sangung;Jo, Bugeon;Kim, Young Do;Lee, Joo-Heon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.393-402
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    • 2023
  • Drought, which has been increasing in frequency and magnitude due to recent abnormal weather events, poses severe challenges in various sectors. To address this issue, it is important to develop technologies for drought monitoring, forecasting, and response in order to implement effective measures and safeguard the ecological health of aquatic systems during water scarcity caused by drought. This study aimed to predict water quality fluctuations during drought periods by integrating the watershed model HSPF and the water quality model QUAL-MEV. The researchers examined the SPI and RCP 4.5 scenarios, and analyzed water quality changes based on flow rates by simulating them using the HSPF and QUAL-MEV models. The study found a strong correlation between water flow and water quality during the low flow. However, the relationship between precipitation and water quality was deemed insignificant. Moreover, the flow rate and SPI6 exhibited different trends. It was observed that the relationship with the mid- to long-term drought index was not significant when predicting changes in water quality influenced by drought. Therefore, to accurately assess the impact of drought on water quality, it is necessary to employ a short-term drought index and develop an evaluation method that considers fluctuations in flow.