• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.43 no.1
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• pp.41-59
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• 2022

In accordance with the enactment of 'the Paris Agreement' in 2015 and 'the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Response to the Climate Crisis' in 2021, each local government has set appropriate reduction target of greenhouse gas to achieve the nationally determined contribution (NDC, the reduction target of 40% compared to 2018) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030. In this study, the current distribution of GHG emissions was analyzed in a time series centered on the Chungbuk region for the period from 1990 to 2018, with the aim of reducing GHG emissions in Chungbuk by 2030 based on the 2030 NDC and scenario. In addition, the prospected reduction by 2030 was estimated considering the projected emissions according to Busines As Usual in order to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions. Our results showed that GHG emissions in Chungbuk and Korea have been increasing since 1990 owing to population and economic growth. GHG emissions in 2018 in Chungbuk were very low (3.9 %) relative to the national value. Moreover, emissions from fuel combustion, such as cement and lime production, manufacturing and construction industries, and transportation industries, were the main sources. Furthermore, the 2030 target of GHG emission reduction in Chungbuk was set at 40.2% relative to the 2018 value, in accordance with the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon-zero national scenario. Therefore, when projected emissions were considered, the prospected reduction to achieve the target reduction of GHG emissions was estimated to be 46.8% relative to 2018. The above results highlight the importance of meeting the prospected reduction of GHG emissions through reduction means in each sector to achieve the national and local GHG reduction target. In addition, to achieve the 2030 NDC and 2050 carbon zero, the country and each local government, including Chungbuk, need to estimate projected emissions by year, determine reduction targets and prospect reductions every year, and prepare specific means to reduce GHG emissions.

• Journal of Energy Engineering
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.33-42
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• 2012

In this study, long-term greenhouse gas reductions expected passenger sector was used for the MESSAGE. Green Car road map proposed BAU scenario, Enhanced diffusion green car scenario, and price 1, 2 scenarios was configured with four scenarios. Enhanced diffusion green car in the scenario, in 2050 compared to BAU scenario 13% of the emissions will decrease. Price 1 and Price 2 scenario is emissions reduction of 14% compared to BAU. This study consists of six chapters. Introduction of MESSAGE, creation and RES in the year and the target year set a different base line and the passenger building materials sector activities, steps for passenger sector scenario and Based on the results of running the emissions reductions were to describe.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.169-177
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• 2011

The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation water demands in Korea have been analyzed. High-resolution ($27{\times}27\;km$) climate data for the SRES A2 scenario produced by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) and the observed baseline climatology dataset were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by the METRI. The Geographic information system (GIS) was used to produce maps showing the spatial changes in irrigation water requirements for rice paddies. The results showed that the growing season mean temperature for future scenarios was projected to increase by $1.5^{\circ}C$ (2020s), $3.3^{\circ}C$ (2050s) and $5.3^{\circ}C$ (2080s) as compared with the baseline value (1971~2000). The growing season rainfall for future scenarios was projected to increase by 0.1% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 19.3% (2080s). Assuming cropping area and farming practices remain unchanged, the total volumetric irrigation demand was projected to increase by 2.8% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 4.5% (2080s). These projections are contrary to the previous study that used HadCM3 outputs and projected decreasing irrigation demand. The main reason for this discrepancy is the difference with the projected climate of the GCMs used. The temporal and spatial variations were large and should be considered in the irrigation water resource planning and management in the future.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.323-328
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• 2002

세계 노령화총회 조직위원회는 출산율 저하와 건강관리 증진으로 오는 2050년까지 60세 이상 노령화 인구가 15세 이하의 인구층을 초과하게 되는 $\ulcorner$조용한 혁명$\lrcorner$이 일어나고 있다고 보고했다.(중략)

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.875-892
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 4차 산업혁명에 대한 선제적 대응 및 2050년 환경변화 대응 이슈 도출, 미래사회 지질자원분야 역할 재조명을 위해 2050 미래상 및 지질자원 기술의 위치와 역할에 대한 연구를 실시하였다. 거시환경 분석을 위해 사회, 기술, 경제, 환경, 정치 부문(STEEP)을 분석하였다. 미래사회 변화 및 트렌드를 분석하여 지질자원 분야와 관련이 되는 주요 이슈를 4차 산업혁명, 우주 지구, 에너지, 광물자원 재료, 기후환경, 지질환경, 삶의 터전으로 제시하였다. 지질자원 분야 키워드와 미래 이슈 연관 분석, 미래사회 해결 이슈(기술 수요) 구체화, 요구하는 서비스 속성 도출, 지질자원 분야 서비스/제품을 구성하여 지속가능 풍부한 자원 미래 실현의 4개 미래기술, 예측(조정)되는 자연환경 관리의 3개 미래기술, 제한 없이 확대된 삶의 터전 구축의 3개 미래기술을 제시하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.355-355
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• 2021

극한 폭염사상은 지난 20세기 이후 점점 더 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 더 광범위한 지역에서 발생하고 있다. 이러한 폭염사상은 다가오는 지구 온난화 시대에서 그 강도가 더 강해지고 지속기간이 길어질 것으로 예상되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 극한강우에 대한 강우강도-지속기간-빈도(intensity-duration-frequency, IDF)곡선의 개념을 폭염사상에 적용하여 미래의 극심한 폭염사상에 대한 발생확률, 강도 및 지속날짜(heat wave intensity-persistence day-frequency, HPF) 간의 관계를 확인해보고자 한다. 또한 해당 모델의 불확실성은 베이지안 기법을 이용하여 분석하였다. 우리나라 6개 주요 지역(대관령, 서울, 대전, 대구, 광주, 부산)에 대해 16개의 미래 일 최대 기온 앙상블 자료를 이용하여 비정상성 HPF곡선을 적용하였다. 미래 극한 폭염 앙상블 결과를 분석한 결과, 2050년을 기준으로 지속기간 2일에 대해 극한 폭염의 강도가 RCP 4.5 이하 시나리오 기준 1.23 ~ 1.69 ℃ 범위에서 상승할 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났으며, RCP 8.5 이하 시나리오 기준의 경우 1.15 ~ 1.96 ℃ 범위로 나타났다. 또한 HPF 모델의 매개변수 추정으로 인한 불확실성의 경우, 다양한 기후 모델의 변동성으로 인한 불확실성보다 크게 나타났다. 모델의 매개변수 추정에 따른 불확실성을 반영한 결과, 2010~2050년에 해당하는 폭염의 강도에 대한 delta change의 95% 신뢰구간은 RCP 4.5 이하에서 0.53 ~ 4.94 ℃, RCP 8.5 이하에서 0.89 ~ 5.57 ℃로 나타났다.

• The Bimonthly Magazine for Agrochemicals and Plant Protection
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.25-32
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• 1985

우리나라의 인구증가율은 1948년 현재 1.55$\%$인데 인구증가율을 점차 감소시켜 2050년에 정지상태로 유지시킨다해도 현 인구의 1.5배인 6,131만명으로 증가될 전망이라 한다. 이와 같이 증가되는 인구만큼 식량증산이 뒤따르지 못한다면 식량의 부족현상은 해결되지 못할 것이며 또한 오늘날 식생활양상도 날로 품질좋은 농산물을 요구하고 있는 실정이다. 품질 좋은 농산물을 다수확하기 위해서는 다수성 품종을 심고 지력증진을 합리적으로 한 바탕위에서 비료를 균형있게 증시(增施)하고 조식(早植) 재배와 병충해의 철저한 방제 등 오늘날 이미 알려진 기술을 충분히 이용하는데 있다.

• Feed Journal
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• v.2 no.8
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• pp.68-74
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• 2004

세계 인구는 이미 1999년 10월에 이미 60억원을 넘어섰고 앞으로 중간정도의 예측치를 가정해도 2050년에는 90억 정도가 될 것으로 추정된다. 이러한 세계 인구의 증가와 식량생산의 한계성을 들어서, 세계 최고 권위의 민간 환경 연구 단체인 월드워치 연구소의 창설자이자 소장인 Lester R. Brown 박사는 번역서 “누가 중국을 먹여 살릴 것인가?”(따님환경신서 18; 1998)와 “풀하우스: 인구ㆍ식량 ㆍ환경”(따님환경신서 15; 1997)에서 세계의 식량난이 21세기에 불어닥칠 것으로 예측하고 있다.(중략)

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.55 no.4
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• pp.399-406
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• 2022

In line with the megatrend of 2050 carbon neutrality, the amount of critical minerals used in clean-energy technology is expected to increase fourfold and sixfold, respectively, according to the Paris Agreement-based scenario as well as the 2050 carbon-neutrality scenario. And, in the case of Korea, in terms of the battery supply chain used for secondary batteries, the midstream that manufactures battery materials and battery cell packs shows strength, but the upstream that provides and processes raw materials is experiencing difficulties. The Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources has established a strategy to secure lithium, nickel, and cobalt and is conducting surveys to respond to the upstream risk of these types of battery raw materials. In the case of lithium, exploration has been carried out in Uljin, Gyeongsangbuk-do since 2020, and by the end of 2021, the survey area was selected for precision exploration by synthesizing all exploration data and building a 3D model. Potential resources will be assessed in 2022. In the case of nickel, the prospective site will be selected by the end of 2022 through a preliminary survey targeting 10 nickel sulfide deposits that have been prospected in the past. In the case of cobalt, Boguk cobalt is known only in South Korea, but there is only a record that cobalt was produced as a minor constituent of hydrothermal deposit. According to the literature, a cobalt ore body was found in the contact area between serpentinite and granite, and a protocol for cobalt exploration in Korea will be established.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.185-194
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• 2012

Population aging in Korea is in progress rapidly, though it isn't recognized as a critical situation now. Absolute scale of population will decrease since 2030 and that of 2050 will stay in 2005 levels. But most serious problem is that the core working age group, 25-54 ages will begin to decrease since 2012 because of low fertility and population aging. In these situation of population aging, we will face inevitably great amount of labor force shortages and we should build up policy alternatives for solving these problems. I proposed some policy alternatives. firstly, pronatalism policies including state-supported child-care system for preventing decreases of absolute scale of population. Second, facing up to labor shortages under population aging, I proposed policy alternatives for increasing labor market participation, measured by employmeny rate, of aged (or aging) people including wage-peak system of extending retiring ages and women including lowering opportunity costs of women labor market participation rates, given laboer forces. And to conclude, we should approach to the aging problems by steady state equilibrium ecnomic growth, under inevitable population aging.