• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.81-104
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• 2007

This paper discusses the central issues of election studies and in this contort, suggests the panel survey method as an alternative to general opinion surveys. In doing so, it also explains the advantages and benefits that a panel survey provides, and discusses the weakness of the 2006 panel survey. East Asia Institutes, constructing the consortium which includes JoongAng Ilbo, SBS, and Hankook Research, traces the change in voting decisions during the 2006 Korean Local Elections. Four regional panels, focusing on the gubernatorial elections in Seoul, Pusan, Kwangju, and Chungnam, enable researchers to study the critical issues of election studies such as the causal relations among a set of voting determinants, the impact of campaigns, and the characteristics of floating voters.

• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.55-79
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• 2007

This article attempts to provide an overview of the exit polls for the 2006 local elections in Korea. The sampling method, sampling error, non-response rate, and prediction error of the exit polls are reviewed. Also, we explore the fact that the propensity to vote varies according to age and gender of voters. In terms of age and gender, the representativeness of the sample is investigated by comparing to the data released by the National Election Commission. Through this empirical research, we show that the exit poll samples are unbalanced in terms of age and this unbalance may be one of the causes of bias occurred in the prediction of the 2006 local election results. The design effects of the sample design implemented for the exit polls are also examined.

• Survey Research
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.25-48
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• 2011

In this paper, we overview the sample design, sampling error, non-response rate and prediction errors of the exit poll conducted for 2010 local elections and discusses how to detect a prediction bias in exit poll. To investigate the bias problem in exit poll in regional(Si-Do) level, we analyze exit poll data for 2007 presidential election and 2006 local elections as well as 2010 local elections in Korea. The measure of predictive accuracy A proposed by Martin et al.(2005) is used to assess the exit poll bias. The empirical studies based on three exit polls clearly show that there exits systematic bias in exit poll and the predictive bias of candidates affiliated to conservative party (such as Hannara-Dang) is serious in the specific regions. The result of this study on systematic bias will be very useful to improving the exit poll methodology in Korea.

• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.31-54
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• 2007

This paper examined the electoral polling methodologies such as sampling method, sampling frame and the classification of the don't-know responses. Quota sampling method seemed to be one of the major factors for the declining trust in the poll results. We suggested that new procedures for random sampling as well as the bad number screening procedures for RDD selection of phone numbers need to be developed. Also we reviewed how the KBS used the polls in defining voters' agenda and in communicating the public agenda to the candidates. In Korea, rates for the polls were based mainly on the number of interviews completed. It seemed to keep the polling companies from tim new and more time-demanding polling methods. Also various utilization of the polls are limited by the tendency to keep the questionnaire short.