• Title/Summary/Keyword: 2-period model

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Life Cycle Analysis of Stem Cell Technology Based on Diffusion Model : Focused on the Research Stage (확산 모형을 이용한 줄기 세포 기술의 수명 주기 분석 : 연구 단계를 중심으로)

  • Jang, In-young;Hong, Jungsik;Kim, Taegu
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.488-498
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    • 2015
  • Research on stem cells can be divided into three categories : pluripotent stem cell, adult stem cell, and induced pluripotent stem cell. Technology life cycle (TLC) on research stage is analyzed for the three stem cell categories based on diffusion model. Three diffusion models-logistic, Bass, and Bass model with integration constant (BMIC)-are applied to the number of articles related to each stem cell category in SCOPUS lists. Two different parameter estimation methods is used for each of logistic and Bass model. Results show that (1) the current year, 2015, lies in growth period at pluripotent stem cell and adult stem cell, and lies in growth period or maturity period at induced pluripotent stem cell. (2) Model fitness is the highest at BMIC model. (3) Imitation effect works best at the research area of induced pluripotent stem cell.

Tests for the Structure Change and Asymmetry of Price Volatility in Farming Olive Flounder (양식 넙치가격 변동성의 구조변화와 비대칭성 검증)

  • Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2014
  • This study is to analyse the timing of the structural change of price volatility and the asymmetry of price volatility during the period before and after the timing of the structural change of price volatility using Jeju Farming Olive Flounder's production area market price data from January 1, 2007 to June 30, 2013. The analysis methods of Quandt-Andrews break point test and Threshold GARCH model are employed. The empirical results of this study are summarized as follows: First, the result of Quandt-Andrews break point test shows that a single structural change in price volatility occurred on May 4, 2010 over the sample period. Second, during the period before structural change, daily price change rate has averagely positive value which means price increase, but during the period after structural change daily price change rate has averagely negative value which means price decrease. Also, daily volatility of price change rate during the period before structural change is higher than during the period after structural change. This indicates that price volatility decreases after structural change. Third, the estimation results of Threshold GARCH Model show that the volatility response against price increase is larger during the period after structural change than during the period before structural change. Also the result shows the volatility response against price decrease is larger during the period after structural change than during the period before structural change. And, irrespective of the timing of structural change, price increase has an larger effect on volatility than price decrease. This means volatility is asymmetric at price increase.

Prediction of Daily Streamflow on Agricultural Watersheds (농업유역의 일별 하천유출량 추정)

  • Im, Sang-Jun;Park, Seung-U
    • KCID journal
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.274-282
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    • 2006
  • The objective of this study was to develop a hydrologic simulation model to predict daily streamflow from a small agricultural watershed considering irrigation return flow. The proposed IREFLOW(Irrigation REturn FLOW) model consists of hillslope runoff model, irrigation scheme drainage model, and irrigation return flow model, and simulates daily streamflow from an irrigated watershed. Two small watersheds were selected for monitoring of hydrological components and evaluating the model application. The relative error (RE) between observed and simulated daily streamflow were 2.9% and 6.4%, respectively, on two small agricultural watersheds (Baran and Gicheon) for the calibration period. The values of RE in daliy streamflow for the validation period were 6.0% for the Baran watershed, and 2.8% for the Gicheon watershed.

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Development and Application of Rainwater Collection Model by the Ground (우수의 지표 포집 모델의 개발 및 적용)

  • Lee, Dong-Kon;Lee, Kil-Soo;Wang, Chang-Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.173-180
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    • 2005
  • In this study, quantity and quality of collected rainwater by the ground collection system were investigated and the Rainwater Collection Prediction Model was developed to predict the amount of collected rainwater. The quantity of collected rainwater in the collection system was 9516 L(38.2%) and the quantity of infiltrated rainwater in the collection system was 9946 L(40.2%) through $25m^2$ area for the study period, respectively. Average turbidity of collected rainwater in collection system was 2.2 NTU, and average turbidity of infiltrated rainwater in collection system was 2.3 NTU for study period, respectively. The predicted amount by the model and the actual collected amount were 9842.4 L and 9516 L, which were very close showing that prediction was excellent. The optimal rainwater storage tank volume was simulated with a certain consumption condition for various cities with different rainfall patterns.

Effects of CO2 and Climate on water use efficiency and their linkage with the climate change

  • Umair, Muhammad;Kim, Daeun;Choi, Minha
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.149-149
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    • 2019
  • Gross Primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) are the two critical components of carbon and water cycle respectively, linking the terrestrial surface and ecosystem with the atmosphere. The ratio between GPP to ET is called ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE) and its quantification at the forest site helps to understand the impact of climate change due to large scale anthropogenic activities such as deforestation and irrigation. This study was conducted at the FLUXNET forest site CN-Qia (2003-2005) using Community land model (CLM 5.0). We simulated carbon and water fluxes including GPP, ecosystem respiration (ER), and ET using climatic variables as forcing dataset for 30 years (1981-2010). Model results were validated with the FLUXNET tower observations. The correlation showed better performance with values of 0.65, 0.77, and 0.63 for GPP, ER, and ET, respectively. The model underestimated the results with minimum bias of -0.04, -1.67, and -0.40 for GPP, ER, and ET, respectively. Effect of climate 'CLIM' and '$CO_2$' were analyzed based on EWUE and its trend was evaluated in the study period. The positive trend of EWUE was observed in the whole period from 1981-2010, and the trend showed further increase when simulated with rising $CO_2$. The time period were divided into two parts, from 1981-2000 and from 2001 to 2010, to identify the warming effect on EWUE. The first period showed the similar increasing trend of EWUE, but the second period showed slightly decreasing trend. This might be associated with the increase in ET in the wet temperate forest site due to increase in climate warming. Water use efficiency defined by transpiration (TR) (TWUE), and inherent-TR based WUE (IT-WUE) were also discussed. This research provides the evidence to climate warming and emphasized the importance of long term planning for management of water resources and evaporative demand in irrigation, deforestation and other anthropogenic activities.

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A Causality Analysis of the Hairtail Price by Distribution Channel Using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR 모형을 이용한 유통단계별 갈치가격의 인과성 분석)

  • Kim, Cheol-Hyun;Nam, Jong-Oh
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.93-107
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to analyze causalities among Hairtail prices by distribution channel using a vector autoregressive model. This study applies unit-root test for stability of data, uses Granger causality test to know interaction among Hairtail Prices by distribution channel, and employes the vector autoregressive model to estimate statistical impacts among t-2 period variables used in model. Analyzing results of this study are as follows. First, ADF, PP, and KPSS tests show that the change rate of Hairtail price by distribution channel differentiated by logarithm is stable. Second, a Granger causality test presents that the producer price of Hairtail leads the wholesale price and then the wholesale price leads the consumer price. Third, the vector autoregressive model suggests that the change rate of Hairtail producer price of t-2 period variables statistically, significantly impacts change rates of own, wholesale, and consumer prices at current period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of the structural shocks with a respectively distribution channel of the Hairtail prices are relatively more powerful in own distribution channel than in other distribution channels. Fifth, a forecast error variance decomposition of the Hairtail prices points out that the own price has relatively more powerful influence than other prices.

Prediction of KRW/USD exchange rate during the Covid-19 pandemic using SARIMA and ARDL models (SARIMA와 ARDL모형을 활용한 COVID-19 구간별 원/달러 환율 예측)

  • Oh, In-Jeong;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.191-209
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    • 2022
  • This paper is a review of studies that focus on the prediction of a won/dollar exchange rate before and after the covid 19 pandemic. The Korea economy has an unprecedent situation starting from 2021 up till 2022 where the won/dollar exchange rate has exceeded 1,400 KRW, a first time since the global financial crisis in 2008. The US Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate up to 2.5% (2022.7) called a 'Big Step' and the Korea central bank has also raised the interested rate up to 2.5% (2022.8) accordingly. In the unpredictable economic situation, the prediction of the won/dollar exchange rate has become more important than ever. The authors separated the period from 2015.Jan to 2022.Aug into three periods and built a best fitted ARIMA/ARDL prediction model using the period 1. Finally using the best the fitted prediction model, we predicted the won/dollar exchange rate for each period. The conclusions of the study were that during Period 3, when the usual relationship between exchange rates and economic factors appears, the ARDL model reflecting the variable relationship is a better predictive model, and in Period 2 of the transitional period, which deviates from the typical pattern of exchange rate and economic factors, the SARIMA model, which reflects only historical exchange rate trends, was validated as a model with a better predictive performance.

A Study on Shape and Height of Shipwaves

  • Gang, Song-Jin;Kim, Mi-Kum;Kim, Chang-Je
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.105-110
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    • 2009
  • Shipwaves am have harmful effects on ships working on the sea, in a harbour or navigational channel and caused beach erosion, seawall destruction. This study aims to investigate describe the characteristics of the wave pattern generated by an individual model ship tested at different velocities and hull forms for a given water depth and to investigate the variations at a given distance from the sailing line under the same conditions. As a result, the angles a's by model ship tests are smaller than those by real ship ones. Wave heights decreases with an increasing the mid-ship cross sectional area $A_s$. The maximum wave height and period increase rapidly in the subcritical speed, and beyond the critical speed the height and period decrease with increasing depth Froude number. And the period keeps constant with the distance from the sailing line.

Optimal Warranty Policy for Free Two-phase Warranty (무료 이단계 보증에 대한 최적의 보증 정책)

  • Ki Mun Jung
    • Journal of Integrative Natural Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2024
  • Jung et al.(2015) suggest the two-phase warranty model, which is a general type of warranty model. Under the two-phase warranty, the warranty period is divided into two intervals, one of which is for renewing replacement warranty, and the other is for minimal repair warranty. And warranty policies play a very important role in product marketing. In this paper, we suggest the optimal warranty policy for free extended two-phase warranty. To determine the optimal warranty period, we adopt the expected profit per unit product. So, the expressions for the total expected cost, the sale price and the expected profit per unit product from the manufacturer's point of view are derived. Also, we discuss the optimal warranty period and the numerical examples are provided to illustrate the proposed the warranty policy.

A Study on the Determinants of Continuous Usage of New Technology-based Banking System: Focusing on Moderation Effect of User Experience Period (신기술기반 은행 정보시스템의 지속사용의도 결정요인에 관한 연구: 사용자경험기간 조절효과 중심으로)

  • Park, Mi;Lee, Ki-Ryang;Kim, Hyung-Wook
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.409-424
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: Present study was designed to examine the casual relationships among service quality, self-efficacy, perceived usefulness, user satisfaction and Continuous Usage in new technology-based banking system. Also, we intended to testify the moderating effects of user experience period in causal model. We applied path analysis model in order to test the hypotheses and research model. Methods: Survey tool, that is, questionnaire has obtained validity through literature survey, exploratory survey and pretest and sample 279 was selected. For statistical treatment of pretest and main analysis, SPSS20.0 and AMOS 20.0 were employed and structural equation model was employed as analysis method. Results: Result of this study shows as follows. All factors have an effect on user satisfaction and Continuous Usage, and we found that user experience period played moderating effect in causal relationship. Therefore, new technology-based banking system is found that the determinants of continuous usage intention is different according to the user experience period. Conclusion: Present study shows that self-efficacy in via of user experience period, there is a need to emphasize that the main consideration factor new technology-based banking system. However, present study has some limitations to additionally research in the future.