• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.6B
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• pp.579-587
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• 2010

The mid-range streamflow forecast was performed using NWP(Numerical Weather Prediction) provided by KMA. The NWP consists of RDAPS for 48-hour forecast and GDAPS for 240-hour forecast. To enhance the accuracy of the NWP, QPM to downscale the original NWP and Quantile Mapping to adjust the systematic biases were applied to the original NWP output. The applicability of the suggested streamflow prediction system which was verified in Geum River basin. In the system, the streamflow simulation was computed through the long-term continuous SSARR model with the rainfall prediction input transform to the format required by SSARR. The RQPM of the 2-day rainfall prediction results for the period of Jan. 1~Jun. 20, 2006, showed reasonable predictability that the total RQPM precipitation amounts to 89.7% of the observed precipitation. The streamflow forecast associated with 2-day RQPM followed the observed hydrograph pattern with high accuracy even though there occurred missing forecast and false alarm in some rainfall events. However, predictability decrease in downstream station, e.g. Gyuam was found because of the difficulties in parameter calibration of rainfall-runoff model for controlled streamflow and reliability deduction of rating curve at gauge station with large cross section area. The 10-day precipitation prediction using GQPM shows significantly underestimation for the peak and total amounts, which affects streamflow prediction clearly. The improvement of GDAPS forecast using post-processing seems to have limitation and there needs efforts of stabilization or reform for the original NWP.

• 한국노년학
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.1063-1086
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to understand the current state of the older people's social exclusion by identifying patterns of the change in social exclusion level through a longitudinal analysis with an aim of exploring the predictors of changes. To this end, this study has adopted the panel data, the English longitudinal Study of Ageing(ELSA). The data of 7631 respondents who aged over 50 were used for the final analysis. The social exclusion of the older people was analyzed into five different sub-dimensions: social relationship; cultural activities; access to health services; financial security; and sense of loneliness. The person-centered approach that focuses on the various patterns of the trajectories of change has used semi-parametric group based model in order to estimate different trajectories among individuals. The data was analyzed using Spss 18.0 and SAS 9.2 proc traj. In results, First, semi-parametric group-based model analysis has shown that the older people are not 'homogeneous' group with similar exclusion level in every individual with same trajectories of change, but can be divided into various categories with diverse intercept and slope. Second, different trajectories in change of exclusion level help to confirm that the older people's social exclusion level increases gradually over time or remains unchanged. Third, this analysis has provided the useful guidelines to identify the high-risk groups of social exclusion. Forth, the variables that make difference in more than three dimensions include gender, age, self-perceived health, physical activity, weekly income, marital status, family relation, and beneficiary status. Implications and further suggestion were discussed.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.41-41
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• 2018

하천과 저수지의 수질을 예측하고 관리하는데 수리 수질예측모형이 널리 활용되고 있다. 수질예측모형은 유역이나 수체 내의 오염물질 이동경로나 농도를 수치해석 방법으로 계산하여 사용자가 필요로 하는 지점과 시점에서의 수질자료 생산하는데 활용되고 있다. 수질예측모형은 검 보정을 통해 정확도를 확보하며, 정확도의 확보를 위해서는 높은 수준의 전문성을 필요로 한다. 특히 시행착오법으로 모형을 보정하는 경우 많은 시간과 노력을 필요로 하게 되며, 보정계수를 과대 혹은 과소로 모형에 적용하는 오류를 범하기 쉽고 모델러의 주관이 관여되기 쉽다. 그래서 본 연구에서는 CE-QUAL-W2모형의 조류항목에 대한 모형 보정을 위하여 Chl-a와 남조류세포수에서 주로 활용되고 있는 보정계수에 대한 민감도 분석 결과를 토대로 매개변수별 모의결과 변화율을 산정하였으며, 시기적 경향성을 재현하기 위해 Ensemble-Bagging 기법과 머신 러닝 기법을 적용하여 모형 구동횟수를 최소화 할 수 있는 방법으로 구성하였다. Chl-a를 보정하기 위한 매개변수는 9개를 선정하였으며, 규조류, 남조류, 녹조류에 총 27개 매개 변수를 민감도 분석으로 도출 한 후 예상 변화율 대비 이벤트별 모의치와 실측치 간 %difference가 유사하도록 매개변수를 조정하였다. 또한 각 이벤트 조합의 매개변수 빈도수와 매개변수별 예상변화율, 시기적 조류특성을 고려하여 가중치를 도출하였으며, 1회 보정에 맞춰 Chl-a 모델 실행결과를 %difference로 평가한 후 "good"등급을 만족할 때까지 반복 적용하였다. 남조류세포수의 경우 Chl-a에 맞춰 매개변수 최적화 이후 남조류세포수 농도를 세포수로 환산하기 위한 CACEL에 대해 머신러닝 기법을 적용하였으며, CACEL 추정변화율 회귀식에 따라 평가 한 후 %difference "good"등급 이상을 만족할 때까지 반복 수행하는 방법을 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 수질예측모형의 정확도를 확보하기 위하여 최적화 기법을 적용하였으며, 이를 통해 모형을 보정하는 과정에서 요구되는 시간과 노력을 줄일 수 있도록 하였으며, Ensemble기법과 머신러닝 기법을 적용하여 모형보정계수 적용에 객관성을 확보할 수 있도록 하였다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.161-179
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• 1993

본 논문은 벡터자기상관(VAR) 모형과 벡터자기상관이동평균(VARMA) 모형을 사용하여 명목금리와 물가(도매물가)사이의 동태적 관계를 분석한다. 명목금리와 물가사이의 정(+)의 상관관계는 소위 $\ulcorner$깁슨의 역설$\lrcorner$로 불리워지고 있는데, 실증분석 결과에 의하면 한국의 경우 깁슨의 역설은 존재하지 않는 것으로 보여진다. 과거의 많은 연구들이 $\ulcorner$깁슨의 역설$\lrcorner$을 지지하는 실증결과들을 발견한 것은 관련변수들의 안정성(stationarity)을 고려치 않은 것으로 판단된다. 본 논문에서처럼 관련변수들의 안정성을 얻기위해 수준변수(예를들면, 도매물가지수) 대신에 차분되거나 증가율을 사용하고, 금리 및 물가이외에 두변수에 영향을 줄 수 있는 변수(예를들면, 통화변수)들을 포함하는 다변수 모형을 이용한다면 우리나라에서는 $\ulcorner$깁슨의 역설$\lrcorner$은 발견되지 않은 것으로 보여진다. 즉, 회사채 수익율과 도매물가상승율을 명목금리와 물가변수로 각각 사용하고, $1972.III{\sim}1991.III$사이의 분기별 자료를 대상으로 분석한 결과, 두변수 사이의 관계는 일방적 인과관계보다는 독립적인 관계로 나타나고 있다.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.1-14
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• 1999

컴퓨터의 기술적인 응용과 발달이 계속되면서, 멀티미디어 및 하이퍼미디어를 적용한 컴퓨터 보조 학브 시스템 개발 연구가 확산되고 있다. 뿐만 아니라 더욱 효율적이고 실용적인 지능형 교습시스템 개발 요구가 대두되고 있다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 보다 효율적인 실제 개발 가능한 하이퍼미디어 지원 지능형 교습시스템 도구 모형을 제안하였으며, 이를 위하여 학습자와 ITS개발자를 위한 효율적인 인터페이스를 위해 에이젼트 개념을 도입하였다. 또한 학습자 모형을 구축하기 위하여 multilayerd 학습자 모형을 사용하였다. 이러한 모형에 의해 부분 구현하여 $\alpha$ test한 결과 학습자 수준에 맞는 교습과정을 제시할 수 있었다.

• Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.457-471
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• 2018

This study examined student- and school-level background and ICT factors that affected PISA 2015 Collaborative Problem Solving (CPS) for Korean students (4863 students from 142 high schools). A two-level hierarchical linear model (HLM) was analyzed from the basic model (model 1) with no predictors to the final model (model 5) with all predictors. Results showed that first, gender, socioeconomic/cultural backgrounds, cooperation level positively predicted CPS scores while perceived unfairness of teacher negatively predicted the outcome. Second, the more frequently ICT was used for out-of-school learning purposes, the less frequently ICT was used for entertainment purposes, and the less frequently ICT was used in schools, the higher CPS scores were. Considering ICT autonomy and social interaction variables measured for the first time in PISA 2015, students who were more interested in ICT and more autonomous in using ICT devices achieved higher CPS scores. On the other hand, the more students considered ICT important as social interaction, the less they gained CPS scores. Third, in terms of school-level characteristics, the smaller the students behavior detrimental to learning, the higher the teachers perceived positive working environment, and the fewer the number of computers available per student, the higher CPS scores were. To facilitate computer-based collaborative problem-solving competence, it is important for students to have interest and autonomy in using ICT. In addition, the guidelines of ICT use and SW curriculum need to be established in order to increase the effectiveness of using ICT device in school.

• Investigative Magnetic Resonance Imaging
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.7-13
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• 2000

Purpose : To assess the distortion of MRI with the Leksell stereotactic radiosurgery system in variable pulse sequence and imaging plane through phantom study, to find most adequate imaging plane and pulse sequence for stereotactic radiosurgery system. Materials and methods : We made the phantoms for MRI and get images in variable conditions and analyzed the image distortion using image analysis program, and statistically using paired student t-test. Results : The transeverse plane images had acceptable error ranges bless than 1.5mm) in all pulse sequence in both the analysis of fiducial marker in stereotactic G-frame and the phantom study. The coronal plane images had unacceptable large errors (more than 1.7mm) in the analysis of fiducial marker in the stereotactic G-frame, but had corrected small errors (less than 1.5mm) in the phantom study. Conclusion : We find from the phantom study that the present MR machines are adequate for stereotactic surgery system in frequently used pulse sequences, and imaging planes.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.115-128
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• 2002

Traffic engineers have developed and implemented various microscopic simulation models to verify the traffic performance and to prevent the expected problems. The existing microscopic simulation models categorize drivers into several types to reflect various drivers' driving patterns but miss the dynamics of drivers' behavior changed based upon the traffic conditions. It was found from the field data collected from two different merging sections on an urban freeway in Seoul, Korea, that the drivers' critical gap distributions are changed based on (1) the traffic density on the adjacent lane to the acceleration lane and (2) the opportunities left to merge in terms of distance to the end of acceleration lane. It was also found from the study that the drivers' critical gap distributions follow the Normal distribution. and its mean and variance change while a vehicle progresses on an acceleration lane. This paper proposes a new gap-acceptance model developed based on a set of drivers' critical gap distributions from each segment on the acceleration lanes. Through the comparison study between the field data and the results from the simulation utilizing the proposed model, it was verified that (1) the distribution of merging points on an acceleration lane to the adjacent main lane at different density levels, (2) the size of the gap accepted for merging and (3) the speed difference between the merging vehicle and the trailing vehicle at the time of merging are statistically identical to the field data at 95% confidence level.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.2-5
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• 2015

본 연구에서는 프로그램을 전혀 해보지 않았고, 게임에는 관심 있는 초등학교 저학년을 대상으로 EPL 도구로서 스크래치를 이용한 SW교육의 교수 학습 모형을 개발하였다. 5단계 10차시로 분류하여 각 단계별 학습목표를 설정하고 교수 학습 목표를 결정하였다. 학습목표에 맞게 각 단계별 수업이 이루어지면 목표에 도달할 수 있도록 반복수업, 흥미 있는 수업, 이해도가 증가할 수 있도록 단계별 수업으로 구성하였다. 또한 SW교육 교수 학습 모형에서 각 차시별 목표를 설정하고 단계별 교수 학습 전략을 제공하여 목표에 도달할 수 있도록 유도하였다. 본 연구를 통해 초등학교 저학년에게 SW교육이 가능한지, 어느 정도 수준의 교육으로 이루어져야 하는 지, EPL 도구로서의 스크래치의 활용성은 어느 정도인지 등을 알아보고 SW교육에 수업자료로 활용하고자 한다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.185-212
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• 2011

The purpose of this paper is to show the empirical analysis way for measuring the seaport efficiency by using the previous radial model and the newly modified non-radial models( panel additive model, panel RAM model, and panel SBM model)with Spearman rank order correlation coefficient(SROCC) for 20 Korean ports during 11 years(1997-2007) for 1 inputs(port investment amount) and 4 outputs(Number of Ship Calls, Port Revenue, Customer Satisfaction Score for Port Service and Container Cargo Throughput). The main empirical results of this paper are as follows. First, consistency ratio of SROCC in terms of efficiency scores between radial and panel Additive model was over about 76% and overall consistency ratio was about 71.6%. Second, an efficiency of panel RAM model was higher than that of radial model with similarity. However, panel SBM model shows the very similar efficiency scores with panel radial model. Third, the slack size of radial model is smaller compared to non-radial model. Models' ranking orders in terms of efficiency scores, number of efficient ports are panel RAM model, panel SBM model, and radial model. The order from the minimum efficiency scores was the same order like just before. The policy implication to the Korean seaports and planner is that Korean seaports should introduce the new methods like non-radial models(panel additive model, panel RAM model, and panel SBM model) for measuring the port performance.