• Land and Housing Review
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.91-115
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• 2022

This study examines changes in business survival rates in a gentrified commercial district by comparing early movers with late entrants. Using the Hongik University Commerical District, or Hongdae, as a case study, we adopt discrete-time survival analysis to compare survival rates between businesses established before 2000 (early movers) and ones established after 2000 (late arrivers). We compare the business survival patterns in a gentrified commercial district (experimental group) to non-gentrified commercial districts (control group) in Mapogu. We examine a survival-rate difference between early movers and late arrivers by different industrial categories. We finally examine a survival-rate gap between franchise and non-franchised businesses. The results show that the early movers have lower survival rates than the late arrivers in the gentrified Hongdae area, whereas there is no significant difference in survival rates between the early movers and the late arrivers in Mapogu. The early movers in daily-life-supporting businesses in Mapogu have even higher survival rates than the late-arrivers. In addition, franchised businesses have higher survival rates than non-franchised stores both in Hongdae and Mapogu. The results provide statistical and comprehensive evidence of the displacement of early movers at a more rapid pace in gentrified areas than non-gentrified aveas, which has been an anecdotal narrative.