Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5804/LHIJ.2022.13.2.91

Displacement of Early Business Entrants in a Gentrified Commercial Area: Survival Rates Compared to Those of Late Arrivers  

Cheon, SangHyun (홍익대학교 도시공학과)
Kim, Jieun (행정안전부 재난경감과)
Publication Information
Land and Housing Review / v.13, no.2, 2022 , pp. 91-115 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study examines changes in business survival rates in a gentrified commercial district by comparing early movers with late entrants. Using the Hongik University Commerical District, or Hongdae, as a case study, we adopt discrete-time survival analysis to compare survival rates between businesses established before 2000 (early movers) and ones established after 2000 (late arrivers). We compare the business survival patterns in a gentrified commercial district (experimental group) to non-gentrified commercial districts (control group) in Mapogu. We examine a survival-rate difference between early movers and late arrivers by different industrial categories. We finally examine a survival-rate gap between franchise and non-franchised businesses. The results show that the early movers have lower survival rates than the late arrivers in the gentrified Hongdae area, whereas there is no significant difference in survival rates between the early movers and the late arrivers in Mapogu. The early movers in daily-life-supporting businesses in Mapogu have even higher survival rates than the late-arrivers. In addition, franchised businesses have higher survival rates than non-franchised stores both in Hongdae and Mapogu. The results provide statistical and comprehensive evidence of the displacement of early movers at a more rapid pace in gentrified areas than non-gentrified aveas, which has been an anecdotal narrative.
Keywords
Commercial Gentrification; Early Mover; Late Arriver; Survival; Displacement; Franchise; Hongdae;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Kim, J. and S. Cheon (2018), "Determinants of Survival Rates of Early Business Movers vs. New Entrants in Gentrified Commercial Districts", Presentation at the International Conference of Asia-Pacific Planning Societies, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam.
2 Kleinbaum, D. G. and M. Klein (2010), Logistic Regression: A Self-Learning Text, Now York: Springer.
3 Ranger-Moore, J. (1997), "Bigger May be better, But is Older Wiser? Organizational Age and Size in the New York Life Insurance Industry", American Sociological Review, 903~920.
4 Stinchcombe, A. L. (1965), "Social Structure and Organizations", Handbook of Oranizations, (ed) March, J. G., 153~193, Chicago, IL: Rand McNally.
5 Yoon, H. and E. Currid-Halkett (2015), "Industrial Gentirifiacation in West Chelsea, New York: Who Survived and Who did No? Empirical Evidence from Descrete-Time Survival Analysis", Urban Studies, 52(1): 20~49.   DOI
6 Zukin, S., V. Trujillo, P. Frase, D. Jackson, T. Recuber and A. Walker (2009), "New Retail Capital and Neighborhood Change: Boutiques and Gentrification in New York City", City & Community, 8(1): 47~64.   DOI
7 김지은.천상현(2018), "젠트리피케이션에 따른 원주민 상인과 후기진입상인의 생존율 결정요인 분석", 「2018 대한국토도시계획학회 추계학술대회논문집」, 1(1): 1~7.
8 진창종(2013), "홍대 앞 주거지의 상업화 과정 및 특성에 관한 분석: 문화주도적 젠트리피케이션 관점에서", 석사학위논문, 홍익대학교.
9 윤윤채.박진아(2016), "상업용도 변화 측면에서 본 서울시의 상업 젠트리피케이션 속도 연구", 「서울도시연구」, 17(4): 17~32.   DOI
10 Baum, J. A. and J. V. Singh (1994), "Organizational Niches and the Dynamics of Organizational Founding", Organization Science, 5(4): 483~501.   DOI
11 김지은(2019), "젠트리피케이션상권과 비젠트리피케이션상 권에 위치한 상업체의 생존율 및 생존요인 비교: 홍대상권 지역을 중심으로", 석사학위논문, 홍익대학교.
12 박재은(2015), "문화주도적 젠트리피케이션 현상 분석을 통한 도시재생정책 연구: 홍대 앞 문화 예술생태계를 중심으로", 석사학위논문, 중앙대학교.
13 서울특별시(2015), 「젠트리피케이션 종합대책」, 서울.
14 신현준.이기웅(2016), 「아시아, 젠트리피케이션을 말하다」, 경기: 푸른숲.
15 이동엽.천상현.성현곤(2020), "복합 엔터테인먼트 쇼핑센터 출점이 인접한 소매상권에 어떠한 영향을 주는가?", 「국토계획」, 55(5): 70~82.
16 Clay, P. L. (1979), Neighborhood Renewal: Middle-Class Resettlement and Incumbent Upgrading in American Neighborhoods, Lexington: Lexington Books.
17 강성구.천상현.이민진(2022), "주상권과 인접상권 중심지 간의 공간변화 다이내믹스: 홍대 일대 상권 사례", 「국토연구」, 113: 25~42.   DOI
18 최은준.천상현.이수기(2021), "사업체의 생존.폐업기간을 활용한 서울시 상업공간의 변화분석", 「지역연구」, 37(4): 3~19.   DOI
19 허자연(2015), "서울시 상업가로의 변천과정에 관한 연구", 박사학위논문, 서울대학교 .
20 Hagemans, I., A. Hendriks, J. Rath and S. ZUKIN (2015), "From Greengrocers to Cafes", in Global Cities, Local Streets: Everyday Diversity from New York to Shanghai, (ed) Zukin, S., 90, London: Routledge.
21 염지혜.양승우(2014), "음식점 변화를 통한 서울 삼청동길의 상업가로 활성화 단계 실증해석", 「한국도시설계학회지」, 15(6): 111~122.
22 Hattori, K. and S. Kim (2015), Tokyo's "Living" Shopping Streets. in Global Cities, Local Streets: Everyday Diversity from New York to Shanghai, (ed) Zukin, S., 170, London: Routledge.
23 이인성.배재흠(2013), "문화상업가로 활성화 과정에서의 건축물 용도변화: 서울시 가로수길을 대상으로", 「한국도시설계학회지」, 14(5): 127~140.
24 남윤미(2017), "국내 자영업의 폐업률 결정요인 분석", 「BOK 경제연구」, 서울: 한국은행.
25 이동현.이재경.천상현(2020), "서울시 성장상권과 쇠퇴상권 내 외식산업의 생존율 비교", 「국토연구」, 105: 65~84.   DOI
26 천상현.최은준.김노훈(2019), 「상권분석서비스 고도화를 위한 모형설계 및 상권위험지수 구축 방안」, 서울: 서울신용보증재단.
27 Lee, M., H. Kim and S. Cheon (2021), "A Network Approach to Revealing Dynamic Succession Processes of Urban Land Use and User Experience", Sustainability, 13(21): 11955.   DOI
28 Aldrich, H. and E. R. Auster (1986), "Even Dwarfs Started Small: Liabilities of Age and Size and Their Strategic Implications", Research in organizational behavior. 8: 165~198.
29 Hackworth, J. and N. Smith (2001), "The Changing State of Gentrification", Tijdschrift Voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 92(4): 464~477.   DOI
30 Kerstein, R. (1990), "Stage Models of Gentrification: An Examination", Urban Affairs Quarterly, 25(4): 620~639.   DOI
31 Vittinghoff, E., D. V. Glidden, S. C. Shiboski and C. E. McCulloch (2011), Regression Methods in Biostatistics: Linear, Logistic, Survival, and Repeated Measures Models, Springer Science & Business Media.
32 김봉원.권니아.길지혜(2010), "삼청동길의 젠트리피케이션 현상에 대한 상업화 특성분석", 「한국지역경제연구」, 15: 83~102.
33 송경일.최종수(2008), 「SPSS 15를 이용한 생존자료의 분석」, 서울: 한나래.
34 김수아 (2013), 「서울시 문화공간의 담론적 구성: 홍대 공간을 중심으로」, 서울: 서울연구원.