• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 해석

Search Result 1,701, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

A Study on the Time-varying Harmonics Measurement, Assessment and Simulation of the Electric Arc Furnace Loads (시간에 따라 변하는 전기로 부하의 고조파 측정, 평가 및 시뮬레이션에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kyung-Chul;Jin, Seong-Eun;Lee, Joo-Hong;Jeon, Young-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.9-17
    • /
    • 2006
  • Large steel industries have nonlinear loads such as electric arc furnaces. Harmonic field measurements have shown that the harmonic contents of a waveform varies with time. Direct application of the harmonic assessment to the snapshot measurements would result in ambiguous conclusions depending on which instant is sampled. A cumulative probablistic approach is the most commonly used method to solve time-varying harmonics. Harmonic simulations are performed to evaluate the harmonic voltage and current distortions throughout the system. This paper provides an in depth analysis on harmonics field measurement of the electric arc furnace loads, harmonics assessment by the international harmonic standards IEC 61000-3-6 and IEEE Std. 519 and harmonic simulation for the time-varying harmonics. The EDSA program was used as a simulation tool for the case study.

Reliability-Based Managing Criteria for Cable Tension Force in Cable-stayed Bridges (신뢰성에 기초한 사장교 케이블 장력 관리기준치 설정)

  • Cho, Hyo-Nam;Kang, Kyung-Koo;Cha, Cheol-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
    • /
    • v.9 no.3
    • /
    • pp.129-138
    • /
    • 2005
  • This paper presents a methodology for the determination of optimal managing criteria for cable tension force in cable-stayed bridges using acceleration data acquired by monitoring system. There are many long span bridges installed with monitoring system in Korea. The monitoring systems are installed to diagnose abnormal behavior or damages in bridges and to warn these to bridge management agency. In cable-stayed bridges, the cable tension force could be an important indicator of abnormal behavior because of the geometric configuration of the cable-stayed bridge. If the management value of cable tension force is set too high or too low, then the monitoring system could not warn properly for the abnormal behavior of a bridge. Generally, the management value is set by empirical or engineering judgment, but in this paper, a new methodology for the determination of managing criteria for cable tension force is proposed based on the probability distribution model for tension force and reliability analysis. The proposed methodology is applied to a real concrete cable-stayed bridge in order to investigate its applicability.

A Study on Estimation of Rainfall Erosivity Using Frequency Analysis for Hapcheon Gauging Station (빈도해석에 의한 합천관측소의 강우침식인자 산정 연구)

  • Ahn, Jung Min;Lee, Geun Suk;Lyu, Si Wan
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
    • /
    • v.20 no.4
    • /
    • pp.19-27
    • /
    • 2012
  • RUSLE(Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) has been widely used to estimate the soil loss amount of watersheds from rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, topographic features and cropping management condition. Rainfall erosivity is the most dominant and sensitive factor among these so that the determination of reliable rainfall erosivity is essential to estimate the soil loss of watershed. Since there has been no criterion to determine the rainfall erosivity in Korea, the empirical values, determined from the relation between the annual average rainfall and erosivity or suggested by TBR(Transport Research Board), have been used for designing the erosion control structure and controlling the soil erosion for watersheds. In this study, the procedure for estimating the rainfall erosivity using frequency analysis is proposed. The most fitted distribution function, with calculated rainfall erosivities with various frequencies and durations, has been also selected. The suggested procedure can be used to estimate the optimal value of rainfall erosivity for RUSLE in order to design soil erosion structures and control the soil erosion in watersheds effectively.

Performance evaluation of hybrid acquisition in CDMA systems (DS/CDMA 시스템에서 하이브리드 동기 획득의 성능 분석)

  • 강법주;강창언
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.914-925
    • /
    • 1998
  • This paper considers the evaluation of the hybrid acquistion perdformance for the pilot signal in the direct sequence code division multiple access(DS/CDMA) forward link. the hybrid acquisition is introduced by the combination of two schemes, the parallel and serial acquisions. The mean acquisition time of the proposed scheme is derived to consider both the best case(the correct code-phase offsets are included i one subset) and the worst case(the correct code-phase offsets exist at the boundary of two subsets), which are cause by the distribution of the correct code-phase offsets in the subset. Expressions for the detection, false alarm, and miss probabilities are derived for the case of multiple correct code-phase offsets and multipath Rayleigh fading channel. Numerical results present the hybrid acquistion performance with repect to design parameters such as postdetectio integration length in the search and verification modes, subset size, and number of I/Q noncoherent correlators, and compare the hybrid acquistion with the parallel acquistion in terms of the minimum acquistion time under the same hardware complexity.

  • PDF

A Simple Open Loop Transmit Diversity Scheme for Rician Fading Channels (라이시안 페이딩 채널을 위한 단순한 형태의 개방루프 전송 다이버시티 기법)

  • 김학성;이원철;신요안
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.27 no.7B
    • /
    • pp.695-705
    • /
    • 2002
  • In this paper, we propose a simple open loop transmit diversity (TD) scheme for the wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA) systems in Rician multipath fading channels such as rural area or satellite channels where line-of-sight (LOS) paths are in presence. The proposed scheme does not require any pre-processing of transmit data, resulting in simpler structure as compared to conventional closed loop transmit adaptive array (TxAA) and open loop space-time transmit diversity (STTD). We analytically derive the probability density function of signal-to-noise ratio at the Rake receiver output and the uncoded bit error rate performance of the proposed scheme. Extensive simulation is Performed to verify the analytical performance of the proposed scheme under typical Rician multipath fading channel environments. Moreover, comparative results with the conventional TxAA and STTD are also provided. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme shows slightly better performance than the conventional open loop STTD under the channels with very weak LOS components, however, it significantly outperforms the STTD under the channels with dominant LOS components, and achieves a close performance of ideal closed loop TxAA.

Is There a Stochastic Non-fundamental Trend in Korean Stock Price?: Inference under Transformed Error Correction Model (우리나라 주가에는 펀더멘털과 무관한 비정상 추세가 존재하는가?: 공적분 및 베버리지-넬슨 분해 접근)

  • Kim, Yun-Yeong
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.35 no.2
    • /
    • pp.107-131
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this paper, we test and estimate the stochastic non-fundamental trend in Korean stock market. For this, following Kim (2011), we exploit that the long-run equilibrium stock price may be decomposed into fundamental and stochastic non-fundamental trends (i.e., the sum of dividend innovations and a part that are orthogonal with the dividend innovations) by using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and projections. In this VAR construction, there is an error correction mechanism through which stock prices converge to their long-run equilibrium, which also contain the stated stochastic non-fundamental trend as well as fundamental trend. The estimation and test results using yearly data from the Korea (1976-2012) indicated that fluctuations in stock prices during that period can be explained mainly not by the stochastic non-fundamental trend but by the dividend trend. However, during some periods like after Seoul Olympic Games, we may observe the non-fundamental trend affected to the stock price variation.

  • PDF

Development of a Fatigue Damage Model of Wideband Process using an Artificial Neural Network (인공 신경망을 이용한 광대역 과정의 피로 손상 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hosoung;Ahn, In-Gyu;Kim, Yooil
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
    • /
    • v.52 no.1
    • /
    • pp.88-95
    • /
    • 2015
  • For the frequency-domain spectral fatigue analysis, the probability density function of stress range needs to be estimated based on the stress spectrum only, which is a frequency domain representation of the response. The probability distribution of the stress range of the narrow-band spectrum is known to follow the Rayleigh distribution, however the PDF of wide-band spectrum is difficult to define with clarity due to the complicated fluctuation pattern of spectrum. In this paper, efforts have been made to figure out the links between the probability density function of stress range to the structural response of wide-band Gaussian random process. An artificial neural network scheme, known as one of the most powerful system identification methods, was used to identify the multivariate functional relationship between the idealized wide-band spectrums and resulting probability density functions. To achieve this, the spectrums were idealized as a superposition of two triangles with arbitrary location, height and width, targeting to comprise wide-band spectrum, and the probability density functions were represented by the linear combination of equally spaced Gaussian basis functions. To train the network under supervision, varieties of different wide-band spectrums were assumed and the converged probability density function of the stress range was derived using the rainflow counting method and all these data sets were fed into the three layer perceptron model. This nonlinear least square problem was solved using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with regularization term included. It was proven that the network trained using the given data set could reproduce the probability density function of arbitrary wide-band spectrum of two triangles with great success.

Optimal Section of Ballasted Asphalt Track Considering Design Lifetime and Economic Feasibility (설계수명 및 경제성을 고려한 유도상 아스팔트 궤도의 최적 단면 산정)

  • Lee, Seonghyeok;Lee, Jinwook;Lee, Hyunmin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.241-251
    • /
    • 2015
  • Compared with ballasted track (BT), ballasted asphalt track (BAT) has been increasingly adopted in many countries due to its more greatly reduced reinforced roadbed thickness and smaller cumulative plastic deformation, and its advantages in terms of maintenance. In this respect, the authors' previous research includes analysis of BAT sections that show performance similar to that of BT sections of the present specifications; reliability verification of the analysis results through real-sized static and dynamic train-load tests were performed. Based on previous research, this paper estimates the track lifetime using the strain of the lower roadbed according to reinforced roadbed thickness; using probabilistic LCC analysis, this paper presents a BAT section that satisfies the design lifetime and that has performance similar to or higher than that of BT.

Importance Sampling Embedded Experimental Frame Design for Efficient Monte Carlo Simulation (효율적인 몬테 칼로 시뮬레이션을 위한 중요 샘플링 기법이 내장된 실험 틀 설계)

  • Seo, Kyung-Min;Song, Hae-Sang
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.53-63
    • /
    • 2013
  • This paper presents an importance sampling(IS) embedded experimental frame(EF) design for efficient Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. To achieve IS principles, the proposed EF contains two embedded sub-models, which are classified into Importance Sampler(IS) and Bias Compensator(BC) models. The IS and BC models stand between the existing system model and EF, which leads to enhancement of model reusability. Furthermore, the proposed EF enables to achieve fast stochastic simulation as compared with the crude MC technique. From the abstract two case studies with the utilization of the proposed EF, we can gain interesting experimental results regarding remarkable enhancement of simulation performance. Finally, we expect that this work will serve various content areas for enhancing simulation performance, and besides, it will be utilized as a tool to understand and analyze social phenomena.

A Study on Reconstruction Models of Side-channel Spillway for Discharge Capacity Improvement (측수로형 여수로의 홍수배제능력증대를 위한 월류부 개축방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sae-Hoon;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
    • /
    • v.7 no.3
    • /
    • pp.9-18
    • /
    • 2007
  • The small and medium sized dams have the fill dam type of a lot of occasions, which are often weak in cases of major floods. For this reason, although a countermeasure is in great need, due to the importance of the facilities and financial situations, no direct safety measures have been taken. In this study, in order to minimize construction expenditure for practical safety measures in cases of major floods, the overflow section of spillway has been analyzed focusing on how the overflow capacity will increase in the case of partially rebuilding a part of the overflow section of spillway favorable for hydraulic conditions. The labyrinth weir and movable weir was chosen for reconstruction models of the overflow section. Moreover, for analyzing the after-effects of the reconstruction, a small scale dam was temporarily chosen for various experiments such as the hydraulic model testing and the three dimension numerical evaluation through the use of Flow-3D.