• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 적합도 모델

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Influence of Modelling Approaches of Diffusion Coefficients on Atmospheric Dispersion Factors (확산계수의 모델링방법이 대기확산인자에 미치는 영향)

  • Hwang, Won Tae;Kim, Eun Han;Jeong, Hae Sun;Jeong, Hyo Joon;Han, Moon Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2013
  • A diffusion coefficient is an important parameter in the prediction of atmospheric dispersion using a Gaussian plume model, and its modelling approach varies. In this study, dispersion coefficients recommended by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (U. S. NRC's) regulatory guide and the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission's (CNSC's) regulatory guide, and used in probabilistic accident consequence analysis codes MACCS and MACCS2 have been investigated. Based on the atmospheric dispersion model for a hypothetical accidental release recommended by the U. S. NRC, its influence to atmospheric dispersion factor was discussed. It was found that diffusion coefficients are basically predicted from a Pasquill- Gifford curve, but various curve fitting equations are recommended or used. A lateral dispersion coefficient is corrected with consideration for the additional spread due to plume meandering in all models, however its modelling approach showed a distinctive difference. Moreover, a vertical dispersion coefficient is corrected with consideration for the additional plume spread due to surface roughness in all models, except for the U. S. NRC's recommendation. For a specified surface roughness, the atmospheric dispersion factors showed differences up to approximately 4 times depending on the modelling approach of a dispersion coefficient. For the same model, the atmospheric dispersion factors showed differences by 2 to 3 times depending on surface roughness.

Dynamic Polling Algorithm Based on Line Utilization Prediction (선로 이용률 예측 기반의 동적 폴링 기법)

  • Jo, Gang-Hong;An, Seong-Jin;Jeong, Jin-Uk
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartC
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    • v.9C no.4
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    • pp.489-496
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    • 2002
  • This study proposes a new polling algorithm allowing dynamic change in polling period based on line utilization prediction. Polling is the most important function in network monitoring, but excessive polling data causes rather serious congestion conditions of network when network is In congestion. Therefore, existing multiple polling algorithms decided network congestion or load of agent with previously performed polling Round Trip Time or line utilization, chanced polling period, and controlled polling traffic. But, this algorithm is to change the polling period based on the previous polling and does not reflect network conditions in the current time to be polled. A algorithm proposed in this study is to predict whether polling traffic exceeds threshold of line utilization on polling path based on the past data and to change the polling period with the prediction. In this study, utilization of each line configuring network was predicted with AR model and violation of threshold was presented in probability. In addition, suitability was evaluated by applying the proposed dynamic polling algorithm based on line utilization prediction to the actual network, reasonable level of threshold for line utilization and the violation probability of threshold were decided by experiment. Performance of this algorithm was maximized with these processes.

Design of Modified CGA for Address Autoconfiguration and Digital Signature in Hierarchical Ad Hoc Network (개선된 CGA(Modified CGA)를 이용한 계층적 애드 혹 네트워크에서의 주소 자동 설정 및 전자 서명 제공 방안)

  • Lee, Hye-Won;Kim, Guk-Boh;Mun, Young-Song
    • Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2006
  • The CGA proposed by IETF working group prevents address spoofing and stealing and provides digital signature to users, but key collision problem arises. To solve this critical problem, the CGA defines the SEC field within address format, which is set to high value when high security is required and vice versa, but the CGA faces a dilemma between security and the processing time. As SEC value increases, the processing time to generate the CGA grows dramatically while key collision ratio increases if low SEC value is applied to the CGA. We propose modified CGA (MCGA) that has shorter processing time than the CGA and offers digital signature with small overheads. To solve key collision problem, we employ hierarchical ad hoc network. The MCGA is applicable to IPv6 networks as well public networks. In this paper, we design a mathematical model to analyze the processing time for MCGA and CGA first and evaluate the processing time via simulations, where the processing time for MCGA is reduced down 3.3 times when SEC value is set to 0 and 68,000 times when SEC value is set to 1. Further, we have proved that the CGA is inappropriate for both ad hoc networks and IPv6 networks when the SEC field is set to more than 3.

Stand Yield Table and Commercial Timber Volume of Eucalyptus Pellita and Acacia Mangium Plantations in Indonesia (인도네시아 유칼립투스 및 아카시아 조림지의 임분수확표 및 이용가능 목재생산량 추정)

  • Son, Yeong-Mo;Kim, Hoon;Lee, Ho-Young;Kim, Cheol-Min;Kim, Cheol-Sang;Kim, Jae-Weon;Joo, Rin-Won;Lee, Kyeong-Hak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.99 no.1
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2010
  • This study was conducted to develop a stand growth model and a stand yield table for Eucalyptus pellita and Acacia mangium plantations in Kalimantan, Indonesia. To develop a stand growth model, Weibull robability density function, a diameter class model, was applied in this study. In the development of stand growth model by site index and stand age, a hierarchy is generally required - estimation, recovery and prediction of the diameter class model. A number of grow equations were also involved in each process to estimate diameter, height, basal area, minimum or maximum diameter. To examine whether the grow equations are adequate for Eucalyptus pellita or Acacia mangium plantations, a fitness index was analyzed for each equation. The results showed that fitness indices were ranged from 65 to 89% for Eucalyptus pellita plantations and from 72 to 95% for Acacia mangium plantations. As being highly adequate for the plantations, a stand yield table was developed based on the resulted growth model, and applied to estimate the stand growth with midium site index for 10-year period. The highest annual stand growth of Eucalyptus pellita plantations was estimated to be 21.25 $m^3$/ha, while that of Acacia mangium plantations was 27.5 $m^3$/ha. In terms of annual stand growth, Acacia mangium plantations appeared to be more beneficial than Eucalyptus pellita plantations. Also, to estimate commercial timber volume available from the plantations, an assumption that a log would be cut by 2.7 m in length and the rest of the log would be cut by 1.5m was involved. The commercial timber volume available from Eucalyptus pellita plantations was 68.0 $m^3$/ha, 33% from the total stand volume, 203.2 $m^3$/ha. Also 96.7 $m^3$/ha of commercial timbers were available from Acacia mangium plantations, which was 42% from the 232.9 $m^3$/ha in total. Presenting a good information about the stand growth in Eucalyptus pellita and Acacia mangium plantations, this study might be useful for whom proceeds or considers an abroad plantation for merchantable timber production or carbon credit in tropical regions.

The Acclerated Life Test of Hard Disk In The Environment of PACS (PACS 환경에서 하드디스크의 가속 수명시험)

  • Cho, Euy-Hyun;Park, Jeong-Kyu;Chae, Jong-Gyu
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.63-70
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we estimate the life cycle from acceleration life test about the hard disk of disk array of image storage of PACS. Webuil distribution was selected by the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test with data of down time at $50^{\circ}C$ and $60^{\circ}C$. The equality test of shape parameter and scale parameter was conducted, so that the probability distribution estimated from data of down time at $50^{\circ}C$ and $60^{\circ}C$ was not statistically significant. The shape parameter was 1.0409, The characteristic life was 24603.5 hours at normal user condition($30^{\circ}C$) by the analysis of weibull-arrhenius modeling which included the acceleration factor of temperature, and The activation energy was 0.5011 eV through arrhenius modeling. The failure analysis of the failure samples of acceleration test and the samples of market return was conducted, so that the share percentage of failure mode was detail difference but the rank of share percentage was almost same. This study suggest the test procedure of acceleration test of hard disk drive in PACS using environment, and help the life estimation at manufacture and use.

Multidimensional Analysis of Unstructured Data and Trends in Architectural Review Opinions of Small and Medium-Sized Apartment Projects (다차원 분석방법을 활용한 중소규모 공동주택 건축심의 의견의 경향과 비정형 데이터로서의 특성분석)

  • Kim, Jinhee;Hwang, Taeeon;Kim, Jae-Sik;Huh, Youngki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.74-80
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the characteristics of architectural review opinions as unstructured data, focusing on the most challenging risk for developers of small and medium-sized apartment projects in response to the increasing number of single-person households in Korea. Using multidimensional analysis methods, the study analyzes the review opinions of 25 projects in B City. Correspondence analysis and MDS (Multidimensional Scale) analysis show that, consistent with prior research, the keywords related to 'structure' and 'planning' dominate architectural review opinions in B City. While the MDS model's stress is very poor at 34.4%, correspondence analysis reveals that this is due to the characteristics of unstructured data in architectural reviews. In addition, the non-structured data analyzed in this study, such as architectural review opinions, exhibited a probability distribution with low kurtosis and high skewness, as they involved various combinations and occurrences of data depending on the discretion of the review committee members and the specific formats of different local governments. This often led to the emergence of keywords that differed significantly from commonly mentioned terms. Although the study has some limitations, it provides a foundation for future detailed analysis by identifying the characteristics of architectural review opinions as unstructured data.

Classification of Very High Concerns HRCT Images using Extended Bayesian Networks (확장 베이지안망을 적용한 고위험성 HRCT 영상 분류)

  • Lim, Chae-Gyun;Jung, Yong-Gyu
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.7-12
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    • 2012
  • Recently the medical field to efficiently process the vast amounts of information to decision trees, neural networks, Bayesian Networks, including the application method of various data mining techniques are investigated. In addition, the basic personal information or patient history, family history, in addition to information such as MRI, HRCT images and additional information to collect and leverage in the diagnosis of disease, improved diagnostic accuracy is to promote a common status. But in real world situations that affect the results much because of the variable exists for a particular data mining techniques to obtain information through the enemy can be seen fairly limited. Medical images were taken as well as a minor can not give a positive impact on the diagnosis, but the proportion increased subjective judgments by the automated system is to deal with difficult issues. As a result of a complex reality, the situation is more advantageous to deal with the relative probability of the multivariate model based on Bayesian network, or TAN in the K2 search algorithm improves due to expansion model has been proposed. At this point, depending on the type of search algorithm applied significantly influenced the performance characteristics of the extended Bayesian network, the performance and suitability of each technique for evaluation of the facts is required. In this paper, we extend the Bayesian network for diagnosis of diseases using the same data were carried out, K2, TAN and changes in search algorithms such as classification accuracy was measured. In the 10-fold cross-validation experiment was performed to compare the performance evaluation based on the analysis and the onset of high-risk classification for patients with HRCT images could be possible to identify high-risk data.

A Case Study on Stochastic Fracture Network Modeling for Rock Slopes of Busan-Ulsan Highway(Reach 5) (부산-울산 고속국도(5공구)에 위치한 암반사면의 추계론적 절리연결구조 모사에 대한 사례연구)

  • Heo, In-Sill;Um, Jeong-Gi;Kim, Yang-Phil;Kim, Kook-Han;Lee, Young-Kyun
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.16 no.4 s.50
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    • pp.337-349
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    • 2006
  • Seven hundred and fifty one fractures of the rhyolitic tuffaceous rock masses were mapped using 6 scanlines placed on rock slope exposures that were within 8.02 km of Busan-Ulsan highway. These data were analyzed to find the number of fracture sets that exist in the rock slopes and the probability distributions of orientation, spacing, trace length and fracture size in 3-D for each of the fracture sets. All the fracture set orientation distributions exhibit high variability. The Fisher distributions were found to be unsuitable to represent the statistical distribution of orientation for most of the fracture sets. The probability distributions, gamma, exponential and lognormal were found to be highly suitable to represent the distribution of spacing and semi-trace length of fracture sets. In obtain-ing these distributions, corrections were applied for sampling biases associated with spacing and trace length. The generated fracture system in 3-D was used to make predictions of fracture traces for each fracture set on 2-D win-dows. Developed stochastic 3-D fracture network for the rock mass was validated by comparing statistical proper-ties of the observed fracture traces on scanlines with the predicted fracture traces on the scanlines. This exercise fumed out to be successful.

Predicting Cooperative Relationships between Engineering Companies in World Bank's ODA Projects (세계은행 공적개발원조사업의 엔지니어링 기업 간 협력관계 예측모델 개발)

  • Yu, Youngsu;Koo, Bonsang;Lee, Kwanhoon;Han, Seungheon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2019
  • Korean construction engineering firms want to pave the way for expansion of overseas markets through the World Bank's Official Development Assistance (ODA) projects as a way to improve their overseas project performance. However, since the World Bank project competes with global companies for limited projects, building partnerships with suitable business partners is essential to gain an upper hand in bidding competition and meet the institutional conditions of the recipient country. In this regard, many network studies have been conducted in the past through Social Network Analysis (SNA), but few have been analyzed based on the process of changes in the network. So, This study collected winning data from the three Southeast Asian countries that ended after the World Bank's ODA project performed smoothly, and established a learning-based link prediction model that reflected the dynamic nature of the network. As a result, the 11 main variables acting on building a cooperative relationship between winning companies were derived and the effect of each variables on the probability value of cooperation between individual links was identified.

Reliability Analysis on Firewater Supply Facilities based on the Probability Theory with Considering Common Cause Failures (소방수 공급설비에 대한 공통원인고장을 고려한 확률론적 신뢰도 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.76-85
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    • 2003
  • In this study, we write down the definitions, their causes and the techniques of analysis as a theoretical consideration of common cause failures, and investigate the limitation and the importance of the common cause failures by applying to the analysis on the fire protection as a representative safety facility. As you can know in the reliability analysis, most impressive cause is the malfunctions of pumping operations; especially the common cause failure of two pumps is dominant. In other words, it is possible to assess system-reliability as twice as actual without CCF From these, CCF is extraordinarily important and the results are highly dependent on the CCF factor. And although it would increase with multiple installations, the reliability are not defined as linear with those multiplications. In addition, the differences in results due to the models for analysis are not significant, whereas the various sources of data produce highly different results. Therefore, we conclude that the reliabilities are dependent on the quality of the usable data much better than the variety of models. As a result, the basic and engineering device for the preventions of CCF of the multiple facilities is to design it as reliably as to design the fire-water pump. That is to say, we must assess those reliabilities using PFD whether they are appropriate to SIL (Safety Integrity Level) which is required for the reliability in SIS (Safety Instrumented System). The result of the analysis on the reliability of the fire-water supply with CCF shows that PFD is 3.80E-3, so that it cannot be said to be designed as safely as in the level of SIL5. However, without CCF, PFD is 1.82E-3 which means that they are designed as unsafely as before.