• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 모델

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Study on the Risk Assessment of Collision Accidents Between Island Bridge and Ship Using an Image Processing Method (영상처리기법을 활용한 연도교와 선박간의 충돌사고 위험성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Da-Un Jang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.7
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    • pp.1111-1119
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    • 2022
  • Tourism projects through islands in the waters of Sinan-gun became active, and as a result, a total of 13 marine bridges connecting islands were completed. However, the marine bridge constructed in the fairway is dangerous for traffic. Particularly, in the case of the marine bridge connecting two islands, the width of the fairway is extremely narrow, therefore the risk is higher. In this study, we evaluated the risk of collision between marine bridge piers and ships using the IALA Waterway Risk Assessment Program (IWRAP), a risk assessment model for port waterways, based on a maritime traffic survey on the coastal bridge in Sinan-gun. The results, indicated that No.1 Sinan bridge had the highest probability of collision and most of the transit ships were coastal passenger ships. In addition, No.1 Sinan bridge was the place where the most collision accidents occurred among the marine bridge piers in the target sea, and the cause this study was analyzed. An analysis of the satellite images of the sea environment of No.1 Sinan bridge using an image processing method, confirmed that obstacles that could not be seen in the chart existed nearby the bridge. As a result, traffic was observed to be concentrated in one direction, unlike two-way traffic, which is a method of inducing traffic of bridges to avoid obstacles. The risk cause analysis method using the image processing technique of this study is expected to be used as a basic research method for analyzing the risk factors of island bridge in the future.

The Effect of Smart Safety and Health Activities on Workers' Intended Behavior (스마트 안전보건활동이 근로자의 의도된 행동에 미치는 영향)

  • Choonhwan Cho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.519-531
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    • 2023
  • With the aim of preventing safety accidents at construction sites, the company aims to create safe behaviors intended through variables called smart safety and health activities to help reduce industrial accidents. Purpose: It analyzes how smart safety and health activities affect accidents caused by unsafe behavior and changes in worker behavior, which is the root cause, and verifies the hypothesis that it helps prevent safety accidents and protect workers' lives. Method: Smart safety and health activities were selected as independent variables (X), and intended safety and anxiety, which are workers' behavioral intentions, were set as dependent variables (Y), attitude and subjective norms, and planned behavioral control as parameters (M). Exploratory factor analysis, discriminant validity analysis, and intensive validity analysis of safety and health activities were used to analyze the scale's reliability and validity. To verify the hypothesis of behavior change, the study was verified through Bayesian model analysis and MC simulation's probability density distribution. Result: It was found that workers who experienced smart safety and health activities at construction sites had the highest analysis of reducing unstable behavior and performing intended safety behavior. The research hypothesis that this will affect changes in worker behavior has been proven, the correlation between variables has been verified in the structural equation and path analysis of the research analysis, and it has been confirmed that smart safety and health activities can control and reduce worker instability. Conclusion: Smart safety and health activities are a very important item to prevent accidents and change workers' behavior at construction sites.

Reliable Assessment of Rainfall-Induced Slope Instability (강우로 인한 사면의 불안정성에 대한 신뢰성 있는 평가)

  • Kim, Yun-Ki;Choi, Jung-Chan;Lee, Seung-Rae;Seong, Joo-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 2009
  • Many slope failures are induced by rainfall infiltration. A lot of recent researches are therefore focused on rainfall-induced slope instability and the rainfall infiltration is recognized as the important triggering factor. The rainfall infiltrates into the soil slope and makes the matric suction lost in the slope and even the positive pore water pressure develops near the surface of the slope. They decrease the resisting shear strength. In Korea, a few public institutions suggested conservative slope design guidelines that assume a fully saturated soil condition. However, this assumption is irrelevant and sometimes soil properties are misused in the slope design method to fulfill the requirement. In this study, a more relevant slope stability evaluation method is suggested to take into account the real rainfall infiltration phenomenon. Unsaturated soil properties such as shear strength, soil-water characteristic curve and permeability for Korean weathered soils were obtained by laboratory tests and also estimated by artificial neural network models. For real-time assessment of slope instability, failure warning criteria of slope based on deterministic and probabilistic analyses were introduced to complement uncertainties of field measurement data. The slope stability evaluation technique can be combined with field measurement data of important factors, such as matric suction and water content, to develop an early warning system for probably unstable slopes due to the rainfall.

Development of Elementary Maker Education Program using WeDo Robot (WeDo 로봇 활용 초등 메이커 교육 프로그램 개발)

  • Kweon, Soonhwan;Park, Jungho
    • 한국정보교육학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2021.08a
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    • pp.335-340
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    • 2021
  • This study conducted research on creating an environment for maker education programs for robot and SW education, development and application of maker education programs for low-grade elementary school students in farming and fishing villages. Based on the preceding maker education model, the OMCSI model was developed for the lower grade level of elementary school, and based on this, five WeDo-utilized elementary maker education programs were developed. From April 1, 2020 to October 30, 2020, the results of applying the elementary school maker education program using WeDo Robot 2.0 to 10 second graders of 10 Elementary School in Gyeongsangnam-do are as follows. The average increased by 3.40 points (t=-2.378, p=0.034) and the average increased by 3.30 points (t=-2.329, p=0.040). The average was also increased by 3.40 points (t=-2.458, p=0.038). Finally, it rose to 3.70 points (t=-2.449, p=0.037) for its reasoning ability. That is, all four sub-elements of computing thinking had a significant probability of 0.04, indicating statistical significant differences between scores of pre-post computing thinking. Therefore, the Elementary Maker Education Program using WeDo robots has worked very effectively to improve students' computing thinking skills.

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Development of System-level Seismic Fragility Methodology for Probabilistic Seismic Performance Evaluation of Steel Composite Box Girder Bridges (강상자형 합성거더교의 확률론적 내진성능 평가를 위한 시스템-수준 지진취약도 방법의 개발)

  • Sina Kong;Yeeun Kim;Jiho Moon;Jong-Keol Song
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2023
  • Presently, the general seismic fragility evaluation method for a bridge system composed of member elements with different nonlinear behaviors against strong earthquakes has been to evaluate at the element-level. This study aims to develop a system-level seismic fragility evaluation method that represents a structural system. Because the seismic behavior of bridges is generally divided into transverse and longitudinal directions, this study evaluated the system-level seismic fragility in both directions separately. The element-level seismic fragility evaluation in the longitudinal direction was performed for piers, bridge bearings, pounding, abutments, and unseating. Because pounding, abutment, and unseating do not affect the transverse directional damages, the element-level seismic fragility evaluation was limited to piers and bridge bearings. Seismic analysis using nonlinear models of various structural members was performed using the OpenSEES program. System-level seismic fragility was evaluated assuming that damage between element-levels was serially connected. Pier damage was identified to have a dominant effect on system-level seismic fragility than other element-level damages. In other words, the most vulnerable element-level seismic fragility has the most dominant effect on the system-level seismic fragility.

Ship Collision Risk Assessment for Bridges (교량의 선박충돌위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Seong Lo;Bae, Yong Gwi
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1A
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • An analysis of the annual frequency of collapse(AF) is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. From this analysis, the impact lateral resistance can be determined for each pier. The bridge pier impact resistance is selected using a probability-based analysis procedure in which the predicted annual frequency of bridge collapse, AF, from the ship collision risk assessment is compared to an acceptance criterion. The analysis procedure is an iterative process in which a trial impact resistance is selected for a bridge component and a computed AF is compared to the acceptance criterion, and revisions to the analysis variables are made as necessary to achieve compliance. The distribution of the AF acceptance criterion among the exposed piers is generally based on the designer's judgment. In this study, the acceptance criterion is allocated to each pier using allocation weights based on the previous predictions. To determine the design impact lateral resistance of bridge components such pylon and pier, the numerical analysis is performed iteratively with the analysis variable of impact resistance ratio of pylon to pier. The design impact lateral resistance can vary greatly among the components of the same bridge, depending upon the waterway geometry, available water depth, bridge geometry, and vessel traffic characteristics. More researches on the allocation model of AF and the determination of impact resistance are required.

Determinants of Long-Term Care Service Use by Elderly (노인장기요양서비스 이용형태 결정요인 연구)

  • Lee, Yun-kyung
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.917-933
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    • 2009
  • This study examined the factors affecting forms of long-term care service use by elderly and the forms of use are classified facility care service, home care service, and unused. It is used data from the 2nd pilot program for the Long Term Care Insurance scheme and it is analysed 5,497 cases. Multi-nominal regression is used. According to the results, women use formal service more than man do, and wowen use facility care than home care. Those who eligible for National Basic Livelihood Security System(NBLSS) are shown to have higher use of formal care(especially facility care) than the middle income class, and the low income class than the middle income class has lower use of formal care. In addition, higher the family care is available, lower the taking part in the service. The big cities and mid sized cities than rural are used the formal service and moreover mid sized cities are used facility care than home care. Furthermore, the level of care need is determinants of service use and function of ADL, IADL, and abnormal behavior is also determinants of formal service(especially facility care). But nursing need and rehabilitation need are not determinants of formal service use. Based on the results, the recommendations are developed and implemented for the improvement the elderly long-term care insurance.

Multidimensional Analysis of Unstructured Data and Trends in Architectural Review Opinions of Small and Medium-Sized Apartment Projects (다차원 분석방법을 활용한 중소규모 공동주택 건축심의 의견의 경향과 비정형 데이터로서의 특성분석)

  • Kim, Jinhee;Hwang, Taeeon;Kim, Jae-Sik;Huh, Youngki
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.74-80
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the characteristics of architectural review opinions as unstructured data, focusing on the most challenging risk for developers of small and medium-sized apartment projects in response to the increasing number of single-person households in Korea. Using multidimensional analysis methods, the study analyzes the review opinions of 25 projects in B City. Correspondence analysis and MDS (Multidimensional Scale) analysis show that, consistent with prior research, the keywords related to 'structure' and 'planning' dominate architectural review opinions in B City. While the MDS model's stress is very poor at 34.4%, correspondence analysis reveals that this is due to the characteristics of unstructured data in architectural reviews. In addition, the non-structured data analyzed in this study, such as architectural review opinions, exhibited a probability distribution with low kurtosis and high skewness, as they involved various combinations and occurrences of data depending on the discretion of the review committee members and the specific formats of different local governments. This often led to the emergence of keywords that differed significantly from commonly mentioned terms. Although the study has some limitations, it provides a foundation for future detailed analysis by identifying the characteristics of architectural review opinions as unstructured data.

Autonomous Ship's Remote Operation Situation Occurrence Probability Estimation Model based on Navigation Areas (운항 해역별 자율운항선박 원격운항 상황 발생 확률 추산 시뮬레이션 모델)

  • Taewoong Hwang;Taemin Hwang;Dain Lee;Hyeinn Park;Ik-Hyun Youn
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.910-914
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    • 2023
  • With the technological innovation owing to the 4th industrial revolution, the maritime transportation is rapidly being developed with autonomous ships and systems. Particularly, autonomous ships will partially replace the manned ships and navigation among them remotely upon the degree of autonomy suggested by IMO. Accordingly, the remote operator and related research have increased as well. However, the data on the minimum required manpower for remote operators are lacking such as considering engage required situations and their co-occurrence probability. Therefore, this study proposes a simulation model that calculates the number of remote engage required situations by defining restricted water area and remote engage required situation as close-quarter situations based on accumulated trajectory data of actual ships. The findings are expected to be used as background materials to establish the appropriate manpower distribution of remote operators in remote operation centers.

Analysis of Changes in Restaurant Attributes According to the Spread of Infectious Diseases: Application of Text Mining Techniques (감염병 확산에 따른 레스토랑 선택속성 변화 분석: 텍스트마이닝 기법 적용)

  • Joonil Yoo;Eunji Lee;Chulmo Koo
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.89-112
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    • 2023
  • In March 2020, as it was declared a COVID-19 pandemic, various quarantine measures were taken. Accordingly, many changes have occurred in the tourism and hospitality industries. In particular, quarantine guidelines, such as the introduction of non-face-to-face services and social distancing, were implemented in the restaurant industry. For decades, research on restaurant attributes has emphasized the importance of three attributes: atmosphere, service quality, and food quality. Nevertheless, to the best of our knowledge, research on restaurant attributes considering the COVID-19 situation is insufficient. To respond to this call, this study attempted an exploratory approach to classify new restaurant attributes based on understanding environmental changes. This study considered 31,115 online reviews registered in Naverplace as an analysis unit, with 475 general restaurants located in Euljiro, Seoul. Further, we attempted to classify restaurant attributes by clustering words within online reviews through TF-IDF and LDA topic modeling techniques. As a result of the analysis, the factors of "prevention of infectious diseases" were derived as new attributes of restaurants in the context of COVID-19 situations, along with the atmosphere, service quality, and food quality. This study is of academic significance by expanding the literature of existing restaurant attributes in that it categorized the three attributes presented by existing restaurant attributes and further presented new attributes. Moreover, the analysis results have led to the formulation of practical recommendations, considering both the operational aspects of restaurants and policy implications.